FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Nov 2010 was probably a one in 100 year event, the chances of it happening twice in a decade are surely close to nil. Fairly spectacular run though with the block reloading and strengthening and the jet over the Canaries!

For what it's worth, the euro model is showing raging SW'erlies again next week which naturally is a lot more likely

It's tantalising viewing but it does look like around the 23rd to 25th a north or northeasterly is trying to break through.
Hopefully the models can get a hold of what's going on.

The stuff dreams are made of

Looks like around the 5th of December going by the latest run it could be cold and produce some snow. In a bit of a north to north easterly.
Can't put any pics up as usual I'm having a problem:(

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looks like around the 5th of December going by the latest run it could be cold and produce some snow. In a bit of a north to north easterly.
Can't put any pics up as usual I'm having a problem:(

I wouldn't worry about any output that's 2 weeks away anyway...

I know that hence FI 😎❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ welivein hope.

Fantastic ECM this evening, heading towards the real deal Greenland High at +192hrs

Not the required cold uppers in place just yet but with a block setup like that it won't be long before they pile in from the North East -



*Note no heights in Europe to get in the way of that plunging low

Superb UKMO this evening, GFS a bit all over the place. FI is +96hrs at the moment.

+144hrs UKMO -



GEM in Support

George Sunsnow wrote: »

A northwesterly!

Initially yes, sourced straight from the Arctic at that- will feel bitter.

If we get this far though we are well set up to drag colder uppers in from the North/North East. It's not every day you see a cross polar flow, the difference between these charts and the GFS is the GFS will just topple the high over us pretty fast. The ukmo/gem is how you move from a cold snap to a proper cold spell.

All still in FI for the minute, it's getting closer though...
Need the ECM to support. If we have a good 12z I expect the GFS to come on board tonight.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The ECM would have wintry showers in the north and west next Monday with not much if any precipitation in the east
There appears to be for want of a way of putting it a ceiling collapse of low pressure down through Scandinavia which will inevitably pull in wintry northeasterly 's
If it's snow one wants with high pressure in the Atlantic and all the signs of pressure dropping in Europe fed from the north,one could indeed be looking at 2010 for the template as to what happens next,happy now ?

Into ECM FI,you have the northeasterly,by Wednesday but it's is not cold enough

I'm not saying we're heading for a re-run of 2010, and yes you're right we aren't seeing very cold uppers just yet.

But, this pattern is highly unusual- I really am not worried about not having cold enough uppers for snow in a week, this is just developing. I would put money on those uppers on the ECM being a few degrees colder as we get closer, but even if they aren't, an Atlantic high reaching up through Greenland connecting with a mega Arctic high is so so rare. It's all in FI for now but I'm starting to think this could be the start of something quite notable.

Quality Stuff



:eek::eek:

We have had a Hurricane....

Time for a proper winter for once. Its been too long.

GFS has moved towards the euro models, even has colder uppers (-4 to -6c) next week, not quite cold enough for low level snow yet but an improvement. Synoptically not as good as the ECM days 7-10 but sure thats miles into FI, all in all its looking good. FI still about 96-120hrs.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The Euro though has moved in the opposite way this morning
We are of course looking far enough ahead to be in territory that in the majority of times doesn't happen and at best only gives a wide ranging signal

Wide ranging signal isn't even clear
You could in theory have a succession of artic lows sink into Europe and if (emphasis on the if) the Atlantic ridge held,then in a week or two you'd be getting there if snow is what you want
That Atlantic high is unlikely to stay where it is though
The form horse is for it to build in over Ireland and then sink south east bringing us back to southerlies or southwesterly's
I'm not going to lie,this is not promising at all

Yes the UKMO and ECM have taken a step towards the earlier GFS runs from yesterday, just as the GFS was moving towards their solution... All still in FI though and plenty of time for it to swing back towards the more amplified pattern.

I agree the form horse is for the high to sink over Ireland /UK eventually given what normally happens but I wouldn't go as far as to say back to southwesterlies, The Euros don't show this out to day 10.

In fact even the high sinking to over Ireland isn't what the majority of ECM ensembles suggest... That's a fairly strong signal for low pressure over Europe/higher to our North West for a day 10 mean chart.



GFS 06z is a slight improvement on the 00z - I expect far more chopping and changing after +120hrs given the changes we have seen over the last few days in the near term. One encouraging thing I've noticed for longer term prospects is even in the outer reaches of FI, the models are consistently showing a disorganised or even fragmented vortex along with that ever present Arctic High.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I know but if you get nothing like what’s now in FI,There’s very little point in taking FI as evidence that southerlies or southwesterlies won’t happen
That’s the game this is and the peril of this forum for the last 14 years or so since it started

But I like the way you’re thinking

I will be laughed at for this but at this time of year I keep a close eye on the CFS for the purposes of the White Christmas thread. For some time now it has shown little of note for snowbies this year but has shown a very cold 3 weeks starting in mid January.