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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Darwin

Despite the juicy looking charts, I don't see any really cold upper 850's. The overall pattern looks great though and anything but full on zonality is most welcome this time of year.

mickger844posts

Darwin wrote: »

Despite the juicy looking charts, I don't see any really cold upper 850's. The overall pattern looks great though and anything but full on zonality is most welcome this time of year.

Yes uppers not great but the general theme is for a block which is what we need for starters. The rest will fall into place once the block is in place. Still too far away to get excited yet:)

pauldry

Im pretty excited by anything thats not mild drab like today and also not a low nw high se scenario like a lot of Winters.

However last Winter started the same in November and it wasnt as cold again.

So Im just watching

icesnowfrost

Looks like around the 5th of December going by the latest run it could be cold and produce some snow. In a bit of a north to north easterly.
Can't put any pics up as usual I'm having a problem:(

BLIZZARD7

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looks like around the 5th of December going by the latest run it could be cold and produce some snow. In a bit of a north to north easterly.
Can't put any pics up as usual I'm having a problem:(

I wouldn't worry about any output that's 2 weeks away anyway...

icesnowfrost

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looks like around the 5th of December going by the latest run it could be cold and produce some snow. In a bit of a north to north easterly.
Can't put any pics up as usual I'm having a problem:(

I wouldn't worry about any output that's 2 weeks away anyway...

I know that hence FI ðŸ˜Ž❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ welivein hope.

Captain Snow

528 Dam line always good for Snow.

Into December Is even better...

These are great winter charts. Nice for a change.

:D:)

Gaoth Laidir

Captain Snow wrote: »

528 Dam line always good for Snow.

Not really. In Ireland we need more like 516 dam to be guaranteed snow, but above 520 dam we rarely get it, unless there's already a cold pool in place.

BLIZZARD7

After this weekends cold snap, UKMO, GEM and earlier ECM continue with a cold pattern. The UKMO is fantastic and would lead to colder shots going forward, GFS 12z op run isn't so pretty but it also isn't the favored option looking at the ensembles.

The control run is the best model run I've seen this season however, all speculative but this run just gets better as it goes on and finishes with a 2010 esque exceptional chart -

Back to reality now - hopefully the ECM follows the UKMO/GFS control run.

BLIZZARD7

Fantastic ECM this evening, heading towards the real deal Greenland High at +192hrs

Not the required cold uppers in place just yet but with a block setup like that it won't be long before they pile in from the North East -

ECH1-192.GIF?21-0

*Note no heights in Europe to get in the way of that plunging low

sryanbruen

The GFS 18z has a low pushing southeastwards during the course of Monday bringing the winds into the west for a very short period of time before it then pushes off to the east of England and the winds veer back to a northerly.

Then it seems we go into quite a battleground situation through early December with mild weather trying to push in from the Atlantic and potential storm activity but cold weather wins the battle. Don't know what to make of that of where it's getting the mild and stormy weather from

.

Decent enough for a pub run at least.

BLIZZARD7

Superb UKMO this evening, GFS a bit all over the place. FI is +96hrs at the moment.

+144hrs UKMO -

GEM in Support

Kermit.de.frog

All in all looks pretty positive for a colder and potentially very wintry regime to persist for the forseeable future.

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Superb UKMO this evening, GFS a bit all over the place. FI is +96hrs at the moment.

+144hrs UKMO -

GEM in Support

A northwesterly!

PukkaStukka

I hope winter doesn't peak too soon...!

BLIZZARD7

George Sunsnow wrote: »

A northwesterly!

Initially yes, sourced straight from the Arctic at that- will feel bitter.

If we get this far though we are well set up to drag colder uppers in from the North/North East. It's not every day you see a cross polar flow, the difference between these charts and the GFS is the GFS will just topple the high over us pretty fast. The ukmo/gem is how you move from a cold snap to a proper cold spell.

All still in FI for the minute, it's getting closer though...
Need the ECM to support. If we have a good 12z I expect the GFS to come on board tonight.

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Initially yes, sourced straight from the Arctic at that- will feel bitter.

If we get this far though we are well set up to drag colder uppers in from the North/North East. It's not every day you see a cross polar flow, the difference between these charts and the GFS is the GFS will just topple the high over us pretty fast. The ukmo/gem is how you move from a cold snap to a proper cold spell.

All still in FI for the minute, it's getting closer though...
Need the ECM to support. If we have a good 12z I expect the GFS to come on board tonight.

The ECM would have wintry showers in the north and west next Monday with not much if any precipitation in the east
There appears to be for want of a way of putting it a ceiling collapse of low pressure down through Scandinavia which will inevitably pull in wintry northeasterly 's
If it's snow one wants with high pressure in the Atlantic and all the signs of pressure dropping in Europe fed from the north,one could indeed be looking at 2010 for the template as to what happens next,happy now ?

Into ECM FI,you have the northeasterly,by Wednesday but it's is not cold enough

BLIZZARD7

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The ECM would have wintry showers in the north and west next Monday with not much if any precipitation in the east
There appears to be for want of a way of putting it a ceiling collapse of low pressure down through Scandinavia which will inevitably pull in wintry northeasterly 's
If it's snow one wants with high pressure in the Atlantic and all the signs of pressure dropping in Europe fed from the north,one could indeed be looking at 2010 for the template as to what happens next,happy now ?

Into ECM FI,you have the northeasterly,by Wednesday but it's is not cold enough

I'm not saying we're heading for a re-run of 2010, and yes you're right we aren't seeing very cold uppers just yet.

But, this pattern is highly unusual- I really am not worried about not having cold enough uppers for snow in a week, this is just developing. I would put money on those uppers on the ECM being a few degrees colder as we get closer, but even if they aren't, an Atlantic high reaching up through Greenland connecting with a mega Arctic high is so so rare. It's all in FI for now but I'm starting to think this could be the start of something quite notable.

George Sunsnow

I’m not wishing to put a dampener on this but it has to be said
Charts like these turn up more often than they verify
Often lurking always past 4 or 5 days untill they disappear altogether

The other point to note (which is a basis for your hope) is that there is actually plenty of upper and surface cold up where those charts could eventually draw air down from
So yes for sure eventually this pattern would bring that down properly were it to persist
For the record my hunch is that it will
Fruits might be delayed but the kiosk certainly sells tickets for the train

Captain Snow

Quality Stuff

:eek::eek:

We have had a Hurricane....

Time for a proper winter for once. Its been too long.

Donegal Storm

Forecast is still just for cool days with overnight frosts to end the month, while there's potential for something more interesting there's been little to suggest it happening with no real cold air nearby to draw from. If the pattern sustains long enough then obviously we'd end up with cold eventually but as we know the Atlantic is always raring to throw us mild south westerlies at the first opportunity

ninebeanrows

As BlackBriar alludes to, the initial synoptic is great but there is no really significant cold pool to tap into. However, if the pattern can dig in we will draw in notable cold at some point over the next few weeks. Certainly looks very interesting and we are sure in for a shock in the next few days with a sustained period of cold weather if not with lowland snow!

Elmer Blooker

No significant cold pool to tap into .... yet, but I can see frost persisting all day in inland areas with perhaps freezing fog which wouldn't be a bad way to see in the first days of winter.

pauldry

I think itl get milder by Sunday evening.

BLIZZARD7

GFS has a much nicer low with a better angle for sending WAA into Greenland on the US eastern seaboard up to 114hrs on the 18z - Hopefully it follows the ECM/UKMO

BLIZZARD7

GFS has moved towards the euro models, even has colder uppers (-4 to -6c) next week, not quite cold enough for low level snow yet but an improvement. Synoptically not as good as the ECM days 7-10 but sure thats miles into FI, all in all its looking good. FI still about 96-120hrs.

George Sunsnow

The Euro though has moved in the opposite way this morning
We are of course looking far enough ahead to be in territory that in the majority of times doesn't happen and at best only gives a wide ranging signal

Wide ranging signal isn't even clear
You could in theory have a succession of artic lows sink into Europe and if (emphasis on the if) the Atlantic ridge held,then in a week or two you'd be getting there if snow is what you want
That Atlantic high is unlikely to stay where it is though
The form horse is for it to build in over Ireland and then sink south east bringing us back to southerlies or southwesterly's
I'm not going to lie,this is not promising at all

BLIZZARD7

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The Euro though has moved in the opposite way this morning
We are of course looking far enough ahead to be in territory that in the majority of times doesn't happen and at best only gives a wide ranging signal

Wide ranging signal isn't even clear
You could in theory have a succession of artic lows sink into Europe and if (emphasis on the if) the Atlantic ridge held,then in a week or two you'd be getting there if snow is what you want
That Atlantic high is unlikely to stay where it is though
The form horse is for it to build in over Ireland and then sink south east bringing us back to southerlies or southwesterly's
I'm not going to lie,this is not promising at all

Yes the UKMO and ECM have taken a step towards the earlier GFS runs from yesterday, just as the GFS was moving towards their solution... All still in FI though and plenty of time for it to swing back towards the more amplified pattern.

I agree the form horse is for the high to sink over Ireland /UK eventually given what normally happens but I wouldn't go as far as to say back to southwesterlies, The Euros don't show this out to day 10.

In fact even the high sinking to over Ireland isn't what the majority of ECM ensembles suggest... That's a fairly strong signal for low pressure over Europe/higher to our North West for a day 10 mean chart.

EDH101-240.GIF?23-12

GFS 06z is a slight improvement on the 00z - I expect far more chopping and changing after +120hrs given the changes we have seen over the last few days in the near term. One encouraging thing I've noticed for longer term prospects is even in the outer reaches of FI, the models are consistently showing a disorganised or even fragmented vortex along with that ever present Arctic High.

George Sunsnow

I know but if you get nothing like what’s now in FI,There’s very little point in taking FI as evidence that southerlies or southwesterlies won’t happen
That’s the game this is and the peril of this forum for the last 14 years or so since it started

But I like the way you’re thinking

Rebelbrowser

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I know but if you get nothing like what’s now in FI,There’s very little point in taking FI as evidence that southerlies or southwesterlies won’t happen
That’s the game this is and the peril of this forum for the last 14 years or so since it started

But I like the way you’re thinking

I will be laughed at for this but at this time of year I keep a close eye on the CFS for the purposes of the White Christmas thread. For some time now it has shown little of note for snowbies this year but has shown a very cold 3 weeks starting in mid January.