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WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

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    #92
    tylercollins
    Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Peru snow state of emergency extended to more regions


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    #93
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    Weather outlook have got Xmas Countdown up


    TheWeatherOutlook says
    Early indications are suggesting the possibility of northern blocking again as we head into the festive season. This would give an increased risk of colder than average weather and that would obviously mean snow is a possibility. So the first Christmas 2013 forecast suggests a higher than average chance of a snow this year.

    Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%


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    #94
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Does anyone know if this chap has any credibility among the secret society of weather boffins?
    http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/


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    #95
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Snowmaker wrote: »
    Does anyone know if this chap has any credibility among the secret society of weather boffins?
    http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314/

    He like most is an amateur weather forecaster and long range forecasts are the holy grail of weather forecasting, but not even the most professional weather forecasters can see that far into the future!

    As fun as it is to predict into the future I am mostly waiting until end of October for the models to pick up near/mid range indications of blocking patterns that could introduce colder weather!

    If what happened this year in spring cold weather wise were to happen earlier in the mid winter this year we could be in for a freezer!

    You should see an increase in activity here and also the occasional snipping! :rolleyes:


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    #96
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,745 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    jaffusmax wrote: »
    ....occasional snipping!

    :p Understatement of the year!


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    #97
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    :p Understatement of the year!

    I choose the word instead of Bloodbath! lol:pac:


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    #98
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Don't worry jaffus, I've been lurking for years and occasionally posting. Normally only surfacing for the 7-9 months of winter (discussions). I'm also a registered & certified snowbunny so I uncontrollably search for any forecast which hints at cold and ignore those leaning towards a milder outcome :-)


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    #99
    Not
    Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    And so it begins....

    From met.ie..

    "National Forecast

    04 September 2013 16:31

    Thursday night will be quite cold with temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 degrees. It will be coolest in the west of the country, where some grass frost is possible. Some showers will develop along the west coast, but for much of the country it will be dry."

    Didn't think that would be turning up so early. Possibly chilly autumn in store ?


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    #100
    Stinicker
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,102 ✭✭✭Stinicker


    Not wrote: »
    And so it begins....

    From met.ie..

    "National Forecast

    04 September 2013 16:31

    Thursday night will be quite cold with temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 degrees. It will be coolest in the west of the country, where some grass frost is possible. Some showers will develop along the west coast, but for much of the country it will be dry."

    Didn't think that would be turning up so early. Possibly chilly autumn in store ?


    Give me frost and snow anyday over the rain, considering the warmer summer a colder winter might not be that out of the question.


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    #101
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Not wrote: »
    And so it begins....

    From met.ie..

    "National Forecast

    04 September 2013 16:31

    Thursday night will be quite cold with temperatures falling to between 3 and 7 degrees. It will be coolest in the west of the country, where some grass frost is possible. Some showers will develop along the west coast, but for much of the country it will be dry."

    Didn't think that would be turning up so early. Possibly chilly autumn in store ?

    YEP :D , here it is showing up on the NMM surface temp for 5am 2moro ! :D

    270538.png


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    #102
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Brrrilliant


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    #103
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,899 ✭✭✭pauldry


    5c in roscommon now so zero a possibility.

    It wont be a cold autumn though

    Just the next couple of days

    Next week is warm again .... 22c


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    #104
    Blizzard 2010
    Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    Latest CFS 18z shows a cold winter and spring:eek:


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    #105
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Blizzard 2010 wrote: »
    Latest CFS 18z shows a cold winter and spring:eek:

    Yeah but its always horribly unreliable!
    Probably means useless/nuisance blocking in march and April.


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    #106
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    http://spaceweather.com/

    Very quite Sun last few weeks, lets see if it continues into winter and if so what effect it may have!


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    #107
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    jaffusmax wrote: »
    http://spaceweather.com/

    Very quite Sun last few weeks, lets see if it continues into winter and if so what effect it may have!

    From the last few winters of observation, we tend to get longer spells of more settled weather patterns when the Sun is less active.

    I'd be hopeful if the Sun stayed quiet that this might give us a few opportunities over the winter for some decent cold and snow.


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    #108
    tylercollins
    Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Interesting video from US Meteorologist Joe Bastardi which gives a brief look at some of the anomalies being thrown out by some of the seasonal models for the coming winter (forward to 7 minutes 6 seconds onward).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfK3dCNuswA


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    #109
    Lumi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    You can get a free, one-week trial of WeatherBELL Premium at the moment including 'access to blogs and videos from Joe Bastardi, Joe D’Aleo and Dr. Ryan Maue, as well as high-resolution weather models, an extensive historical weather database'
    go to www.weatherbell.com and sign in using the following credentials:

    Username: snowice
    Password: winter2013


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    #110
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Getting ready for another winter.

    If nothing else it is always exciting.

    Based on the averages, I'm guessing this winter will be average :)


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    #111
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    tylercollins wrote: »
    Interesting video from US Meteorologist Joe Bastardi which gives a brief look at some of the anomalies being thrown out by some of the seasonal models for the coming winter (forward to 7 minutes 6 seconds onward).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfK3dCNuswA

    2013 and 2014 winters are the ones joe has been going on about for a few years now.

    Let it roll.:)


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    #112
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    ALMOST-BLANK SUN: 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum. Indeed, the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip, a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. But if this is Solar Max, it looks a lot like Solar Min. The face of the sun is almost completely blank:

    A careful inspection of the solar disk reveals only two sunspots, very small and quiet. NOAA forecasters estimate no more than a 1% chance of M- or X-class flares during the next 24 hours.

    In fact, this is Solar Max, the weakest one in more than 50 years. Long spells of quiet and spotlessness are punctuated by occasional flares and CMEs. At least one researcher believes the ongoing maximum is actually double-peaked, and we are now experiencing the valley between peaks. If so, a surge in solar activity could be in the offing in late-2013 and 2014. Stay tuned.

    http://spaceweather.com/


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    #113
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Has mt done his winter predictions yet? Wasn't it early September!


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    #114
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax




    http://youtu.be/tXksKLhwkWw


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    #115
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    whitebriar wrote: »
    Yeah but its always horribly unreliable!
    Probably means useless/nuisance blocking in march and April.

    Just re CFS, I took note of its long range forecasts in and around November for the last 2 years and it actually turned out to have modelled December to March quite accurately (in overview - obviously not on a day to day level). In particular it predicted Feb 2012 would be freezing throughout Europe except Ireland and it predicted last year's late winter. I wouldn't ignore it certainly.


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    #116
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Simon Keeling is a professional forecaster that updates his FREE Weather Site daily and is really good!!!!

    At 3:55 he gives an update on the JMA Long Range Model (which is one of the best around) and it clearly shows plenty of blocking to the west of Europe over the Winter months indicating brrrrrrrrrr. The JMA has preformed very well over the summer having showed the July blocking that brought us much needed summer sun!

    Now of course no fine detail is never nailed down this far out and exactly where the blocking would be and for what area would be optimal for cold is impossible to tell. BUT it his hard to deny that now both the CFS and the JMA are in line showing that this winter may not be the zonal snoozefest of many a recent year!



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    #117
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,842 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Ken Ring about to feature on Newstalk pat kenny, also quoted in the indo. When will the media cop on?


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    #118
    Loughc
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Temptatures are around 17C this weekend, that's quiet mild for this time for year no? Are we looking at a mild winter this year? :(


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    #119
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Ken Ring about to feature on Newstalk pat kenny, also quoted in the indo. When will the media cop on?

    Unfortunately facts and real science are too boring for the media! I like most of ye will be watching the forecasting models as they roll in all over the Winter!


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    #120
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Well, for the UK... here's what James Madman thinks will happen (pinched form the forum pages of the Daily Fail newspaper-thingy) - note this is an actual forecast... not an outlook... as always, take it with a pinch of anti-snow (salt)... but I do hope he's right and it extends into Ireland rather then just stopping once it hits the Irish snow barrier.

    UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods

    December 2013

    The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to
    experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too.

    December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime
    at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period.

    December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts).

    January 2014

    The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of
    northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too.

    January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too.

    January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January.

    February 2014

    The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period.

    February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too,
    but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period.

    February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.


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    #121
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Fair play to him for being able to keep spelling mistakes down to a bare minimum because obviously he had a few sherberts in him while writing this!


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