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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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    #62
    Arrival
    Closed Accounts Posts: 779 ✭✭✭Arrival


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Deadly serious question, can you qualify what you mean by “we here are moving a lot faster?”

    I’m seeing a lot of posters say things will be grand and government is balanced. Well that’s great, I’d just like to hear the examples of the actions the government are taking to slow down the spread. We are in a containment phase but we know we will most likely be moving up a phase soon enough. so what are we doing to contain apart from running around on the backfoot trying to locate everybody who may or may not have had contact with our few confirmed cases? And don’t answer with “WHO says” or we are following other countries lead. South Korea and China are the ones WHO have been saying have been handling this crisis well. You don’t follow Italy and Germany into sh*t just because they are EU countries, you try to stay a step ahead by not doing what countries who are in bits did, so what are we doing to make sure we don’t end up like Italy?

    People are right to be dubious and ask questions because what’s being said and what’s actually being done doesn’t stack up. They want us to take precautions to limit the spread but just not when it’s going to result in financial loss. If we are weeks ahead of Italy , what are we doing that they didn’t two 2 weeks ago?

    You see I don’t mind being led by a government when what they say and do matches. I also don’t mind having it explained to me why certain things are so “we won’t be as bad as Italy”. But soundbite statements with no information or based on “well we don’t know but let’s presume the positive” are just not going to wash with me.

    Calling people hysterical is not helpful or conducive to discussion, it’s nearly like some people have their fingers in the ears and can’t engage anybody who has differing views to their own. I feel I’m ready for what’s coming but I don’t feel many others are. I feel lack of transparency is leading to the issues we are seeing including distrust of decisions being made. We don’t need to know who is infected (like that poor doctor whose life is prob ruined) , don’t want to see that straw man argument that I think many, if any are suggesting.

    People like that are morons and dangerous, they can't engage in civilised, constructive conversations to reach actually positive conclusions. Feeling like they're right and you're wrong is more important to them than actually finding the most logical approach to the issue...o
    If someone is incapable of admitting they were thinking incorrectly and changing their opinions when faced with facts then there's no point trying to reason with them unfortunately

    "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."


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    #63
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Wibbs wrote: »
    It would be hard to deny the suspicion that some are getting off on panic porn.

    Be careful there now.

    I bet you don't want a black light inspection of your sock drawer.:D


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    #64
    i57dwun4yb1pt8
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭i57dwun4yb1pt8


    make your own mask, handy real tip if required

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wg-cwD4Edac


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    #65
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 76,463 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Won’t go into detailed Italian geography, but to summarise it simply (I am sure they have data to define it better): you draw a line from Venice to Milan and include anything within 25km of that line. This basically seems to be where the cluster started.

    Way off the mark.
    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    That is useless as a description, since places in Emilia and Marche are included.


    Someone posted a map of it in the last thread, perhaps they could post it again, it would be handy.


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    #66
    LaFuton
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 784 ✭✭✭LaFuton


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    Look nobody cares that there is a sale on in Penneys.;)

    which pennys? i need trousers!


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    #67
    otnomart
    Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    ChurchtownMan wrote: »
    Any country that wants to criticise Italy can only do so if it has proven that whatever cases have emerged for them, they have handled it, shut down the spread, and are sure they have all cases in quaranteen.
    In short, there is no such country known to be in that position.
    Absolutely.
    France had a patient in hospital in Creil for 6 days and only tested him on 25 February.
    He had no travel nor links with China nor Italy, so we still don't know which was the source.
    Hopefully France will soon share the genomic data and we will see it in Nexstrain.


    Anyway, Creil still has its commuter train link to Paris, despite being in the Oise epicentre.


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    #68
    TheValeyard
    Registered Users Posts: 12,227 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Wibbs wrote: »
    It would be hard to deny the suspicion that some are getting off on panic porn.

    Great. Now a load of people will be googling panic porn later.

    Fcuk Putin. Glory to Ukraine!



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    #69
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    LaFuton wrote: »
    which pennys? i need trousers!

    And Wibbs needs new socks.


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    #70
    Runaways
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,269 ✭✭✭Runaways


    Panic porn

    What a great term :)

    Describes a lot of this perfectly.


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    #71
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    New Home wrote: »
    Way off the mark.

    Can you explain why rather than just saying you believe it is incorrect without explaining?

    If you remember where it started: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-spread-death-toll-tries-to-control-5-2020-2

    “The two most infected regions are Lombardy and Veneto in the north of Italy, home to Milan and Venice.”

    That is the exact area covered by my definition of what they should have locked down initially, and that information is nothing new - it has been publicly available for a few weeks.


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    #72
    dublin99
    Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭dublin99


    Taiwan is an island less than half the size of Ireland with population of 23 million, very close to China but was able to take control with only 45 cases since January.

    They acted promptly at the beginning of the outbreak.
    No flight bans but visitors from China and Hong Kong were required to self quarantine for 14 days.
    Schools were closed for a few weeks.
    Hand sanitisers were everywhere: airport, shops, restaurants.

    Like Macau, everyone wore a face mask. They are important in densely populated cities like Taipei (2.3 million population). This stops the spread from asymptomatic carriers or pre-symptomatic patients as incubation period can be up to 14 days. People dont touch their nose and mouth when wearing a mask.

    Ireland has not learned from Italy if HSE is refusing to test people with no contact with confirmed cases. Look at the 38 year old in Italy who was one of the initial super spreaders! They did not test him as he had not been to China.....

    Lessons from Taiwan:
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/taiwan-reins-spread-coronavirus-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html


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    #73
    otnomart
    Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Finally some sense
    In fact Italy, France and Germany manage to contain the initial few cases for more than a month before the inevitable outbreak

    We here are moving a lot faster


    And since last week we know that a patient died in Valencia on the 13 February.

    No known links to China norItaly.

    First European patient died about a week before the first Italian case was diagnosed, and nobody knew it.

    He was initially diagnosed with pneumonia


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    #74
    Lashes28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭Lashes28


    sjb25 wrote: »
    Most likely query cases several of them around different hospitals
    So they clear out beds isolate test then test comes back negative sent home so you get panic rumours spreading that there IS a case hse are hiding them they were probably query cases that came back negative so no report of it

    I heard it two days ago so I highly doubt there's any truth


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    #75
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Right can we get serious the deaths coming out for Iran and Italy are no flu.

    Why do some people refuse to see this?


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    #76
    Popoutman
    Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭Popoutman


    This twitter thread is worth reading.
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

    Analysis done by an engineer, with reasonable expectations of the progression path, and observations about current healthcare status
    One of the big problems with the overall situation at the moment is the people have no real idea what an exponential growth looks like in reality. I've had people say "it's not going to be that bad" and then they are absolutely floored when I go through the conservative figures with them, and they do get a little scared when they realise that the conservative figures are best-case and that things could be a week or two sooner getting to critical stages.

    A 6-day doubling in cases is what has been seen, and that's incredibly troubling. Ireland's at what, 19 cases? (numbers current from here) So, next Saturday morning it'll be around 40 cases. Doesn't sound too bad, does it? Then Friday after Paddy's it'll be at 80. First of April, 320 cases. Starts to look like being a problem - that'll have saturated our critical care facilities. But, continuing on that trend, by May first it'll be 2500 people infected in the Republic. By June first, 80,000 infected. July first, more than half of the population could be infected. We definitely have a problem, and we're likely not doing enough about it yet.

    Ireland really needs to start thinking about how to slow the spread, now that the virus is in the community. The general suggestions appear to be no more gatherings of >500 people (and that includes pubs and nightclubs), restrictions on national and international travel, temperature testing of everyone at passport control. If we do all of that, people will riot (and spread the virus so more effectively). Slowing the spread lessens the amount of current cases needing care. If we can flatten that peak, we've got a better chance to manage things without breakdown.

    Ireland is not immune to the virus, we're just a few doublings behind the worldwide upwards curve, but we are definitely on that curve at the moment.


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    #77
    I Am The Law
    Registered Users Posts: 657 ✭✭✭I Am The Law


    Fake News:
    In an act of leadership, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to forgo Taoiseach and TD salaries and return to his primary vocation as General Practitioner in light of Coronavirus emergency.


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    #78
    Ninthlife
    Registered Users Posts: 2,247 ✭✭✭Ninthlife


    Anyone who has posted in the thread(s) is guilty of fueling any kind of 'panic porn' regardless of your opinion

    Discussing the matter can help alleviate someones anxiety surrounding the issue. Thos who posted panic doomsday posts get replies that may be more grounded and this may help that poster realise their irrationality

    Same with twitter, they see crazy tweets about death rates and post them here only for more informed posters to confirm their inaccuaracy thus in turn possibly helping someone remain calm within themselves


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    #79
    joe40
    Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    Arrival wrote: »
    People like that are morons and dangerous, they can't engage in civilised, constructive conversations to reach actually positive conclusions. Feeling like they're right and you're wrong is more important to them than actually finding the most logical approach to the issue...of someone is incapable of admitting they were thinking incorrectly and changing their opinions when faced with facts then there's no point trying to reason with them unfortunately

    "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."

    The name calling and inability to engage in civilised conversation comes from all sides. You are accused of not caring about older, vulnerable people if you accept in any government/HSE response so far.
    This is an emotive topic. I think by any rational measure this is extremely serious, and will result in death. I think that is inevitable.
    At the same time I don't accept the medical professionals in the HSE are heartless idiots. I believe they are following the best course of action as they see fit in accordance with many other countries.
    The policy may change, probably will, but for the time being I'm willing to go with official policy. That does not mean I don't care but nothing is gained from panic or anxiety. It may come to that but we're not there yet.


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    #80
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Cody montana wrote: »
    Huh?

    Serious amount of deaths announced in Italy and Iran in the last few days this is no flu.


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    #81
    lainey_d_123
    Registered Users Posts: 2,385 ✭✭✭lainey_d_123


    My friend I mentioned in one of these friends has just made the difficult decision to cancel her honeymoon in Japan. She was meant to go 2 weeks from now. While they don't seem to have that many cases there relative to some European countries, it feels like too much of a risk to travel so far at a time when things are changing so fast. She reckons she'll probably catch it in London anyway but better that than being stuck in a foreign country where they're in denial about how bad the situation is, either sick or unable to get home.

    British Airways have refused to refund any money and are saying flights are still going as normal, so they're out thousands of pounds for flights, as well as losing their annual leave and having their honeymoon ruined.

    I'm so gutted for her...she's had a really hard year with serious illness and this was a huge treat, and now she's going to spend her honeymoon sitting at home in London for 2 weeks, not even able to properly enjoy it because of coronavirus.


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    #82
    otnomart
    Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Wouldn't be so sure about that?

    Example is guy in Cork. No travel abroad and no know contact with case so no immediate test for Covid-19. They could not figure out why he was ill...in and out of hospital....so eventually they decided to test for Covid-19. Bingo!

    That's how the virus gets past the 'controls' put in place and how we move on from the containment phase!


    Can the relevant authorities share the genomic data from the Cork case, please ?
    So we will know if it is coming directly from China, or from the spread originated from first case in Europe, German BavPat1.


    https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-03-05?n=9



    "The German "BavPat1" sequence is part of an introduction from China much earlier in the epidemic. Its similarity to the other sequence in the cluster (they are separated by only one mutation), could indicate undetected ("cryptic") transmission in Europe stemming from this early German cluster."


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    #83
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    dublin99 wrote: »
    Taiwan is an island less than half the size of Ireland with population of 23 million, very close to China but was able to take control with only 45 cases since January.

    They acted promptly at the beginning of the outbreak.
    No flight bans but visitors from China and Hong Kong were required to self quarantine for 14 days.
    Schools were closed for a few weeks.
    Hand sanitisers were everywhere: airport, shops, restaurants.

    Like Macau, everyone wore a face mask. They are important in densely populated cities like Taipei (2.3 million population). This stops the spread from asymptomatic carriers or pre-symptomatic patients as incubation period can be up to 14 days. People dont touch their nose and mouth when wearing a mask.

    Ireland has not learned from Italy if HSE is refusing to test people with no contact with confirmed cases. Look at the 38 year old in Italy who was one of the initial super spreaders! They did not test him as he had not been to China.....

    Lessons from Taiwan:
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/taiwan-reins-spread-coronavirus-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html

    Taiwan also has one of if not the best health are systems in the world.


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    #84
    Acosta
    Registered Users Posts: 2,282 ✭✭✭Acosta


    Reading that people that think they might have it are unable to get themselves tested by anyone in the HSE is deeply troubling.


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    #85
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The number of new cases are down in Iran which is a positive. Deaths up too.

    Again though it's the weekend - Monday might be a better metric of progress.


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    #86
    lainey_d_123
    Registered Users Posts: 2,385 ✭✭✭lainey_d_123


    Runaways wrote: »
    Panic porn

    What a great term :)

    Describes a lot of this perfectly.

    I have to agree, and I'm someone who is 'higher risk'. It's starting to seem like the widespread panic is doing more damage than the virus itself. Some of the media reporting on this has been downright hysterical and irresponsible.

    I've seen reports of people stocking up on toilet paper, so now everyone who watches that is going to think 'oh, I need to make sure I have enough toilet paper in case it all gets stockpiled!' and that's how you create a problem where there wasn't one.

    It's a virus, like any virus. Good hygiene and handwashing is important, avoiding crowds is wise, and avoiding travel is wise. Everything else is pure media hysteria, completely pointless, and creating enormous panic and anxiety, making people even more susceptible to getting ill.


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    #87
    john_doe.
    Registered Users Posts: 643 ✭✭✭john_doe.


    "Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China"

    That's from Imperial college London study couple of weeks back.


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    #88
    branie2
    Registered Users Posts: 10,295 ✭✭✭✭branie2


    Will there be more cases?


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    #89
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Bob24 wrote: »
    By locking down the initial cluster i mean they should have locked down the whole metropolitan area rather than a few villages and actually enforced travel bans as well as public gathering restrictions (and as a side note they gained nothing by not doing it as now they end up having to do it anyway although what they are enforcing now is still milder than what China did with Wuhan at an earlier stage of the outbreak).

    What you describe above is as if China had just sent a few police cars around the neighbourhood of the original market an assumed that would do the trick ... before realising it was not enough when other parts of the country had started to see similar growth as Wuhan (but as opposed to Europe they managed to avoid that last bit). If you compare it to China Italy is a case of “too little, too late”.


    what metropolitan area? the cluster was in a small country village
    Wuhan is not the blueprint for every cluster in the world, each one has its specific dynamics


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    #90
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    branie2 wrote: »
    Will there be more cases?

    The question should be how many cases have we not found yet?


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    #91
    micar
    Registered Users Posts: 1,877 ✭✭✭micar


    US2 wrote: »
    That was me. What evidence can I provide that you will believe? Should be in today's press release or tomorrow conference. Definitely 3 cases there at the moment.

    Considering I'm in Drogheda now, this is very worrying especially for my elderly father


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