Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 9:57am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

00z GFS continues to develop ( chaotically) a signal that the cold spell will break down in a week and will be replaced by a sequence of Atlantic Cyclones ...ie a stormy christmas period and not for the first time neither.

By 'Chaotic' I mean that discrete cyclone events appear and disappear almost by the run at present...starting in about a week, but the signal for an active and Cyclonic Atlantic remains constant starting in a week.

So winter, as such, could be OVER by next friday. Everybody who likes winter MAKE THE MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.......

SB, that is a bit misleading to be fair !

There may be a mild spell but Winter is far from over

leahyl · 07-12-2012 9:57am

It's nearly always the same (apart from 2010!) - mild wet muck for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Stephens Day....sigh

whitebriar · 07-12-2012 10:03am

Harps wrote: »

Upgrades, downgrades, whatever, its still at best just a few cool, dry days similar to what today will be like, nothing worth 20 odd pages of hype. FI charts a few days ago were looking cold but nothing remotely reliable has been and current forecasts show a chilly south easterly for a few days before the Atlantic returns

Here's the projected daytime temperatures from this mornings GFS for the height of the 'cold spell', 2 to 6C and dry, much the same as its been for the past two weeks

GFS suite is largely in agreement up until the 12th now with 850hPa temps rarely below -5C

AH NOW..
what we have now is cool,next week will be cold,the two are very different.
You know that.

Since when were gfs temp predictions reliable especially 5 days away? I must have missed that memo.

With all due respect,I am always disappointed how both here and on netweather how long time posters ( not you specifically) can still comment like its there first time reading.

I'll repeat what I said last night,severe cold is going to advect west over Ireland,no certainty yet on shower detail or on longevity ok?

kennyb3 · 07-12-2012 10:18am

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 10:21am

kennyb3 wrote: »

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

I did read somewhere that the BBC were slow in updating these, they may be out of date

Here is from the MET

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:
Sunday rather cloudy with light rain, turning colder and brighter from the north. Monday and Tuesday cold and bright, with blustery and increasingly wintry showers. Overnight frosts throughout.
Updated: 0320 on Fri 7 Dec 2012

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2012 to Thursday 20 Dec 2012:
Cold weather is likely to continue during the middle of December, with temperatures generally significantly colder than normal for the time of year. Most areas should see plenty of fine, dry and sunny weather, although there is a risk of wintry showers. These are most likely to affect eastern areas at first, but they could become more widespread later in the forecast period, potentially reaching all parts of the UK. There will be widespread overnight frosts, and with these there is a risk of ice forming, especially around showers. There is also a risk of freezing fog forming in some places. Although the UK outlook is for generally cold conditions to dominate, there are some indications of milder, wetter weather affecting some western and southwestern areas at times.
Updated: 1131 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

Sponge Bob · 07-12-2012 10:22am

kennyb3 wrote: »

This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Thats not true. The UK may be clear of clouds and in a dry cold but we might get a bit of Atlantic damp coming in and meeting the cold overhead, eg a la the January 1982 event. Early signs are that later in the week may be the best chance.

Elmer Blooker · 07-12-2012 10:24am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

00z GFS continues to develop ( chaotically) a signal that the cold spell will break down in a week and will be replaced by a sequence of Atlantic Cyclones ...ie a stormy christmas period and not for the first time neither.

By 'Chaotic' I mean that discrete cyclone events appear and disappear almost by the run at present...starting in about a week, but the signal for an active and Cyclonic Atlantic remains constant starting in a week.

So winter, as such, could be OVER by next friday. Everybody who likes winter MAKE THE MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.......

We cant say for certain that winter will be over in a week. The charts this morning are a mess if you ask me and the Atlantic always breaks through eventually. The best we can hope for is for the cold to cling on in the UK which is often the case and then see a return to colder conditions from the east after a milder period. This what I think will happen. Xmas 1981 saw most of the UK snow covered but lying snow had already thawed in Ireland.
My father told me that in 1963 English football clubs used to come over to Ireland and play Irish clubs for much needed match practice which wasn't possible in the snowbound UK. The winter obviously wasn't as severe here in Ireland due to these milder Atlantic interludes.
It shouldn't be forgotten either that Dec 2010 (the first sub zero month in Dublin since 1881) had a milder interlude in the middle.
I wouldn't agree that winter is over because of a few FI charts.
Example: After a major freeze at new year this chart doesn't look very interesting but the rest of Jan and Feb that winter were easterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790106.gif

Weathering · 07-12-2012 10:40am

kennyb3 wrote: »

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Hasn't even snowed yet and everyones tlking sbout when its getn milder

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 10:57am

Uppers looking a bit better here at T78

I think the shortwave looks less of an issue though may be wrong !

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 11:11am

Winds from the right !

Deank · 07-12-2012 11:22am

t|nt|n wrote: »

Winds from the right !

Looks promising for snow especially if the Irish sea is bubbling

Villain · 07-12-2012 11:42am

Deank wrote: »

Looks promising for snow especially if the Irish sea is bubbling

Based on current charts the upper temps wouldn't be low enough.

I wouldn't be happy with the 06z but models always struggle in these scenarios, +72 is probably FI at the moment.

Supercell · 07-12-2012 11:46am

Look like 70:30 sleety rain at sea level but whiteout in hilly/mountain areas imho, Wicklow mountains will get a pasting . Think I'll be taking a spin up to Roundwood, Annamoe, Laragh and Glendalough next week.

maw368 · 07-12-2012 11:53am

kennyb3 wrote: »

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Yes but if you watch the BBC, their forecasts are often wrong, they change a number of times a day and change god knows how many times a week. I was supposed to have been getting a whole day of heavy rain yesterday, then it had snow with rain and in reality there was a bit of snow, bit of rain and the rest of the day was nice.

gothwalk · 07-12-2012 12:08pm

leahyl wrote: »

It's nearly always the same (apart from 2010!) - mild wet muck for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Stephens Day....sigh

I have a vague recollection of reading somewhere that that's been the case for hundreds of years in Western Europe (since the early medieval era, at least), and that the precise date of Christmas was deliberately settled in that typical "niche" in the weather patterns so that people had a better chance of travelling.

Now, that sounds like justification after the fact, but I think it's observably true (he said, having looked at no temperature records) that no matter what the weather before and after, there's an uptick in temperatures very close to the 25th in most years.

I must take a look when I find a few spare minutes (probably on December 25th, at this rate...) and see what the actual records look like for that.

maw368 · 07-12-2012 12:09pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

We cant say for certain that winter will be over in a week. The charts this morning are a mess if you ask me and the Atlantic always breaks through eventually. The best we can hope for is for the cold to cling on in the UK which is often the case and then see a return to colder conditions from the east after a milder period. This what I think will happen. Xmas 1981 saw most of the UK snow covered but lying snow had already thawed in Ireland.
My father told me that in 1963 English football clubs used to come over to Ireland and play Irish clubs for much needed match practice which wasn't possible in the snowbound UK. The winter obviously wasn't as severe here in Ireland due to these milder Atlantic interludes.
It shouldn't be forgotten either that Dec 2010 (the first sub zero month in Dublin since 1881) had a milder interlude in the middle.
I wouldn't agree that winter is over because of a few FI charts.
Example: After a major freeze at new year this chart doesn't look very interesting but the rest of Jan and Feb that winter were easterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790106.gif

It is strange how all the excitement can turn to sudden negativity due to a a one morning FI chart. Most here constantly point out that cold FI charts are prone to change a lot before it happens and then one morning of mild FI charts and you are all doom and gloom, forgetting your own advice that they could change a lot before it happens.

The charts are not always right either, in fact they are often wrong. Basing this mornings run as evidence of no coming cold or snow, the end of winter already is a bit dramatic. The people saying about these cold FI charts are generally meaningless, are the very people that seem to take this mornings FI charts as absolute.

This is not a criticism, just a contradiction, I think bias is the right word; not intentionally but still bias

BEASTERLY · 07-12-2012 12:45pm

Just a quick post, certainly baby steps in the right direction on the 6z GFS compared to the 0z.

BEASTERLY · 07-12-2012 12:50pm

maw368 wrote: »

It is strange how all the excitement can turn to sudden negativity due to a a one morning FI chart. Most here constantly point out that cold FI charts are prone to change a lot before it happens and then one morning of mild FI charts and you are all doom and gloom, forgetting your own advice that they could change a lot before it happens.

There has been a trend in the models backing off a cold spell, the negativity certainly isnt due to one run in FI.

BLIZZARD7 · 07-12-2012 1:15pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

There has been a trend in the models backing off a cold spell, the negativity certainly isnt due to one run in FI.

The models always wobble in the lead up to a cold spell though- Im expecting short term upgrades over next 2 days...

Dan

munsterlegend · 07-12-2012 1:20pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

The models always wobble in the lead up to a cold spell though- Im expecting short term upgrades over next 2 days...

Dan

From my reading of it I believe the UK will certainly be fine in terms of snow potential. We again might be on the wrong line of things unless there is a further shift west in what is modelled. The East and North in Ireland have as always a better chance in such a set up.

Any invasion from the West nearly always end in failure for my location anyway. In terms of 62 I wonder how long was the cold already in place before the attack from the West and was it a country wide event? UK again seems best placed for this battleground.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 1:22pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

From my reading of it I believe the UK will certainly be fine in terms of snow potential. We again might be on the wrong line of things unless there is a further shift west in what is modelled. The East and North in Ireland have as always a better chance in such a set up.

Any invasion from the West nearly always end in failure for my location anyway. In terms of 62 I wonder how long was the cold already in place before the attack from the West and was it a country wide event? UK again seems best placed for this battleground.

Hold till the 12z runs on Sunday, then we can cry if we need to I reckon

maw368 · 07-12-2012 1:27pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

There has been a trend in the models backing off a cold spell, the negativity certainly isnt due to one run in FI.

I don't know because I haven't seen for myself, worked 15 hour shift yesterday so I only skip through this forum every now and then when I get chance. But in the last 48 hours I was under the impression from this board that it was trending cold, with most here in agreement. Comments like, that is the best ECM run I have ever seen. Maybe I am mistaken but I am sure most here up until yesterday was convinced the prospects were good.

I appreciate that things may have changed, but that is the point right? yoyo is the word I hear people mention a lot or rollercoaster, is it not unjustified at this stage to write off the whole of winter as Sponge Bob did... though I am not sure if he was being serious. It is early days and with peoples levels of certainty appearing to be pretty much only a few days ahead, then isn't there every chance the charts will swing the other way again shortly and be back to a cold trend.

Speak Now · 07-12-2012 1:36pm

Still could go either way!

Jostef · 07-12-2012 2:05pm

Things aren't so bad as far as I can see. The GFS has gone all to sh*t this morning but the ECMF, CFS and BOM seem to be on course for nice weather next week.......at least to my untrained eye. Even the UKMO is heading in the right direction.
Give it a chance lads! What do the more knowledgeable on here think of the runs from these charts?

Sponge Bob · 07-12-2012 2:24pm

UK FAX just rolling out. Hmmm

ZX7R · 07-12-2012 2:43pm

Jostef wrote: »

Things aren't so bad as far as I can see. The GFS has gone all to sh*t this morning but the ECMF, CFS and BOM seem to be on course for nice weather next week.......at least to my untrained eye. Even the UKMO is heading in the right direction.
Give it a chance lads! What do the more knowledgeable on here think of the runs from these charts?

I agree jostef ,some nice winter weather next week from the majority of the charts ,i,think people just need to forget about what we got two years ago.
i am no expert on the charts, but i think people are reading to much into them ,they change with every run they will have slight up grades,and down grades ,at the moment all we know is, we will have a good week of cold winter weather next week.

Weathering · 07-12-2012 2:55pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20643497

whitebriar · 07-12-2012 3:18pm

Nothing has changed.
We're still only clear on the next 96hrs.

Compare today's weather with what any of the models said it would be 144 hrs ago and it will confirm there's no point in worrying!

Look at indications,we know blockings coming don't we

Oh and read the threads in the run up to the 2010 spell for guidance on how usual uncertainty is and how misguided even the regulars can be calling it.

Also read threads from 2007 and 2008 and any from 2004 onwards and then rejoice you're not stuck in those.

Look at threads from Jan 13th 2007 onwards to see nirvana turn to dust.

kennyb3 · 07-12-2012 3:29pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

UK FAX just rolling out. Hmmm

Have to say i don't understand this image a jot, i can read the others as i'm now familiar with them. Anyone care to explain?

Min · 07-12-2012 3:39pm

kennyb3 wrote: »

Have to say i don't understand this image a jot, i can read the others as i'm now familiar with them. Anyone care to explain?

A high blocking the Atlantic to the north/north west and also south of Ireland. Winds from the north east, not that strong, showers being generated off the Irish sea, likely to be wintry in nature but only for coastal margins and in the 2nd chart, there would be showers in the southwest, also likely to be wintry.
That is my reading however right or wrong.

maquiladora · 07-12-2012 4:08pm

The 528 dam line is still out over the Irish Sea on those FAX charts so showers falling as snow at low levels in Ireland doesn't look likely there.

I just remembered I posted this two days ago.

It will be interesting to see how things stand 48 hours from now : still on course for a beasterly, or clutching the straws of another delayed, watered down cold spell?

Duiske · 07-12-2012 4:08pm

whitebriar wrote: »

Nothing has changed.
We're still only clear on the next 96hrs.

To be honest, everything has changed. From charts 3 days ago showing a full blown easterly and potential for significant snow to charts this morning showing high pressure over Ireland with little chance of snow. The risk of snow now comes from a clash between milder air moving in later next week coming up against colder air over eastern areas, but even this risk may be confined to higher ground in the east and north-east. The only difference now between GFS and ECM is that the latter delays the transition from colder to milder by a day or so.

leahyl · 07-12-2012 4:11pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The 528 dam line is still out over the Irish Sea on those FAX charts so showers falling as snow at low levels in Ireland doesn't look likely there.

I just remembered I posted this two days ago.

Look on the bright side - you were right :pac:

But I know it is very disappointing once again - from the model watchers on here, like yourself, it doesn't look too positive for severe cold and snow lovers

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 4:13pm

Faith is needed people !

Remember that a feature can be picked up at any point and have significant changes on the entire run, I am hoping that the shortwave issue is not there / watered down on the 12z as it seemed to be less pronounced on the 06z

As I said earlier we have more runs to nail this yet, the medium term is not certain

Weathering · 07-12-2012 4:14pm

Living on high ground in eastern Donegal I'm guaranteed snow no matter happens suckers

icesnowfrost · 07-12-2012 4:15pm

Does anyone no if kipoure has lying snow at the moment

Weathering · 07-12-2012 4:21pm

Interesting article guys http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/to-snow-or-not-to-snow/

BLIZZARD7 · 07-12-2012 4:27pm

Well im glad we have cleared that up then, the next week is set in stone, a bit of frost, wintry showers on high ground only and then the atlantic back in control by next weekend.

Im starting to get very frustrated as these are posters who know how volatile this setup is and how uncertain the outlook is.

Look at the charts before 1947,1963,1979,1982,1987,1991,2010 and see how clear it was that severe cold was coming, say 4 days before. I am defintley not expecting anything on the scale of those winters next week but I wouldnt rule it out and I defintley wouldnt be so sure of the atlantic being in control by the end of the week.

Also would people stop being so certain of snow or no snow next week- We will most likely see many opportunities and some surprise snowfall is probable too.

Rant over...

Dan

munsterlegend · 07-12-2012 4:33pm

I'd love to know what the charts last weeks said today would be like be it GFS or ECM! When professionals are saying low confidence it means they really are just guessing like the rest of us. I just have a feeling that there will be more positive winter snow news over the weekend.

Trotter · 07-12-2012 4:34pm

I don't remember ever knowing in advance that snowfall was absolutely due where I live. In fact, I was so sure in 2010/11 that I was out of the game, I went to Dublin and missed the biggest snowfall in years at home. I nearly had to sled back down the M9.

DOCARCH · 07-12-2012 4:34pm

Eyes down now for the 12z GFS - starting to roll out now.

Lets spin that wheel! :pac:

kennyb3 · 07-12-2012 4:46pm

It's times like this, it would be lovely to hear even more from MT, the sensible soul that he is, and an added bit of analysis over an above the daily weather.

Actually generally when you do hear from him you know something is going to happen.

zidewayz · 07-12-2012 4:52pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Does anyone no if kipoure has lying snow at the moment

It does. was on top of Seehan earlier at approx 620m asl with small bit of icey snow remains. Kippure and seefingan looked even whiter. Would expect kippure to have fresh snow from last night. There is a good thaw in place though. Will post pics later.

Weathering · 07-12-2012 4:54pm

Seems on the latest charts that the easterly wind is a non event and high pressure is practically sitting on us,what is most intriguing is when the supposed cold spell was suppose to break down by next weekend it looks as if the easterly wind will start up then??? Right FC wrong timing?? I think the charts mean nothing to be perfectly honestly,they change more than a women's outfit

hatrickpatrick · 07-12-2012 4:54pm

Feckin' Azores High :mad:

Spindle · 07-12-2012 5:04pm

Weathering wrote: »

Seems on the latest charts that the easterly wind is a non event and high pressure is practically sitting on us,what is most intriguing is when the supposed cold spell was suppose to break down by next weekend it looks as if the easterly wind will start up then??? Right FC wrong timing?? I think the charts mean nothing to be perfectly honestly,they change more than a women's outfit

That's what happens when you pick a point in time 7+ days away, see a chart you like, and then base all your hopes on that chart verifying exactly as it is shown.

If you didn't know the other chart existed you would be happy with the fact that an easterly was so close and might break through :cool:

If the models are interrupted correctly it shows you that the potential exists for such conditions and you can factor that into determining what chance of the such a chart verifying.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 5:11pm

Right over to UKMO and ECM.

If they agree then im off to lapland

DOCARCH · 07-12-2012 5:30pm

New balls please. :P

whitebriar · 07-12-2012 5:39pm

Lol would ye and the Netweather crowd cop the hell on.
Here we go again,the ukmo has been Fcekin useless for weeks,so wrong the ukmo hahaven't been using it and its their model don't you know

Now we have the always Atlantic favouring gfs going to an opposite warm extreme just like the ecm did with its super cold 12z the other night.

Both extremes are and were highly unlikely so will ye relax the kacks once again?

Are ye aware the best model around is the ecm? Its 32 dated often flips and they're all over the place right now for who knows what reason.

I'm confident of air advection over us from Europe next week OK?
Not sure if models can handle properly whether this will persist or be short lived untill its here OK?

So relax snow bunnies OK ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-12-2012 5:46pm

whitebriar wrote: »

Lol would ye and the Netweather crowd cop the hell on.
Here we go again,the ukmo has been Fcekin useless for weeks,so wrong the ukmo hahaven't been using it and its their model don't you know

Now we have the always Atlantic favouring gfs going to an opposite warm extreme just like the ecm did with its super cold 12z the other night.

Both extremes are and were highly unlikely so will ye relax the kacks once again?

Are ye aware the best model around is the ecm? Its 32 dated often flips and they're all over the place right now for who knows what reason.

I'm confident of air advection over us from Europe next week OK?
Not sure if models can handle properly whether this will persist or be short lived untill its here OK?

So relax snow bunnies OK ?

The change in colour suits you ! Ha

Over to the ECM now !