Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

pad199207 · 18-01-2021 6:59pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ok he has had his mass...back OT...rain gathering from the west - just to remember there is a risk of flooding over the next 36 hours across north Leinster, Connaught and south Ulster in particular.

Looks like good ole Shannon is down again

silverharp · 18-01-2021 7:18pm

Cant see there being any snow in Dublin, lowest temp Met have is a around 4 to 5 C then it dries up and gets a bit cooler

Gaoth Laidir · 18-01-2021 7:18pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Looks like good ole Shannon is down again

Not according to what I'm seeing.

pad199207 · 18-01-2021 7:22pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Not according to what I'm seeing.

Ahh looking at the recent radar image yup it does look like it’s all good!

Kermit.de.frog · 18-01-2021 7:35pm

ECM going with an hour or two of snow in the southeast which has to be close to base case. Still time for nudges here and there which would make a big difference locally.

barney 20v · 18-01-2021 7:36pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

Just to add,the difference between this event is in the South east this time wind is off the land not the sea
Huge difference especially to the east of high ground if snow is going to fall to sea level
The cold air digging will also have had a long land track over the island to South leinster especially neutralising a lot of its marine wateryness
More guidance tomorrow and probably even Wednesday needed to call this

Please forgive the uneducated question but, does this mean high ground in wexford is more likely to see snow due to a lower marine influence as it transitions over high ground during the afternoon /evening?

I'm 150 mtrs asl on the east side of the Blackstairs Mountain and watching this closely .

18-01-2021 7:40pm

barney 20v wrote: »

Please forgive the uneducated question but, does this mean high ground in wexford is more likely to see snow due to a lower marine influence as it transitions over high ground during the afternoon /evening?

I'm 150 mtrs asl on the east side of the Blackstairs Mountain and watching this closely .

You're in a better position than me I think,a lot better and I'm expecting a bit of wet snow on the coast in E wicklow
Grounds going to be saturated or flooded though

Tyrone212 · 18-01-2021 8:23pm

Big temperature contrast across the country tomorrow. Met Eireann forecast showed 2c across Donegal and up to 11c in the south.

Nqp15hhu · 18-01-2021 9:04pm

An area of drizzle and heavy mist has formed in northern Ulster ahead of the main system.

Very wet here.

Nqp15hhu · 18-01-2021 9:07pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Big temperature contrast across the country tomorrow. Met Eireann forecast showed 2c across Donegal and up to 11c in the south.

Was looking at Galway and they are down for a 11c high tomorrow!

thatsmighty · 18-01-2021 9:09pm

We are all stuck at home anyway ...

screamer · 18-01-2021 9:24pm

We’re a bunch of weather junkies this time of year....
I’m in the snow zone but wondering if there’s any chance that if it does snow will it stick around given the saturated ground......

Kermit.de.frog · 18-01-2021 10:37pm

Great the pub run. We need drunken charts now more than ever...

Kermit.de.frog · 18-01-2021 10:57pm

Rating: 4 pints/10

GFS (P)

45-574PUK.GIF?18-18

5 pints/10

Davaeo09 · 18-01-2021 11:31pm

Is it edging "slightly" more north as you hoped for? Looks that way right? even if its only a few miles each run

Kermit.de.frog · 18-01-2021 11:33pm

It's still on. Arpege has pushed things a bit further north this evening as well. Let's see if the trend continues.

Little changes upstream make all the difference.

19-01-2021 12:01am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's still on. Arpege has pushed things a bit further north this evening as well. Let's see if the trend continues.

Little changes upstream make all the difference.

You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

Danno · 19-01-2021 12:14am

AuntySnow wrote: »

You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

I wouldn't place much value on the precip type the UKMO place over the Irish Republic. The precipitation forecast can be hit and miss for here at times.

red_bairn · 19-01-2021 12:28am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

..
just to remember there is a risk of flooding over the next 36 hours across north Leinster, Connaught and south Ulster in particular.

I'm in Naas. Should I consider buying a canoe to collect my daughter from the creche?

19-01-2021 12:36am

Danno wrote: »

I wouldn't place much value on the precip type the UKMO place over the Irish Republic. The precipitation forecast can be hit and miss for here at times.

They've none at all tho!
Precip gone by wenesday morning

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2021 12:39am

AuntySnow wrote: »

They've none at all tho!
Precip gone by wenesday morning

Could be worse. You could be crying in to your cocoa in the afternoon :P

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2021 12:40am

red_bairn wrote: »

I'm in Naas. Should I consider buying a canoe to collect my daughter from the creche?

Unless Naas is located in one of the aforementioned areas then probably not...:)

Gaoth Laidir · 19-01-2021 1:05am

AuntySnow wrote: »

You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

That's fairly accurate imo. Those hatched areas on the Meteociel charts are just a "risk" of snow and by definition are only areas "where other factors, such as vertical profiles, should be analysed to determine the actual risk of snow". They show where precip could fall as snow over at least high terrain. No guarantee to lower levels. "In no case should the model be taken literally".

De même, les hachures en hiver sur la carte, sont pratiques car elles ciblent les zones à analyser pour prévenir le risque de neige. Mais en aucun cas on ne peut se contenter d’une lecture littérale du modèle, il faudra ensuite analyser le profil vertical de la masse d’air pour voir si effectivement des précipitations peuvent se produire sous forme de neige.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2021 1:10am

No one is taking them literally.

They are the quickest way to get across to onlookers where a risk exists. Incidentally they are also usually highly accurate these days in any case.

Rougies · 19-01-2021 1:17am

I've always found the Arpege model to be pretty accurate with their precip rate/type charts at close range (<24 hrs). It's still too far out but I'm sure many of us in the east would bank this!

19-01-2021 1:18am

Yes it's all theoretical
If it does snow,it's going to be sloppy slop
Might take my 5km trip up to the croghan windmills wenesday for the crack
The public road there rises to 1000ft asl
The coillte Lane reaches to about 1600ft about 7kms inland
What should I expect up there?

19-01-2021 1:22am

Rougies wrote: »

I've always found the Arpege model to be pretty accurate with their precip rate/type charts at close range (<24 hrs). It's still too far out but I'm sure many of us in the east would bank this!

Yeah that's in theory a snapshot of a moving target too
I'd imagine if it was accurate, then 30 minutes later,the precip coming down from the higher terrain would turn the rest of that coastal strip pink

Spanish Eyes · 19-01-2021 1:23am

Won’t be nice having a walk in lashing rain.. but hopefully no gales to add to the misery.

I’m no expert, but enjoy the enthusiasm of the weather junkies here. Am not expecting snow at all. But plenty of rain. Dublin South.

Mount Vesuvius · 19-01-2021 1:34am

Hill snow and a wet mess on latest HARMONIE

kittyn · 19-01-2021 1:45am

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Hill snow and a wet mess on latest HARMONIE

I am in the pink

admittedly I am up a decent height

Rougies · 19-01-2021 1:54am

Yeah of course it's all theoretical and a wet mess is the best we can hope for below 400m. Some local areas might get a nice surprise while others rainy disappointment, regardless of what the models show. At least it's "something" to watch amid the endless gloom.

Tyrone212 · 19-01-2021 2:26am

Any idea what altitude the highest house would be in the South East? Highest town village is 251m.

pad199207 · 19-01-2021 2:38am

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Any idea what altitude the highest house would be in the South East? Highest town village is 251m.

Highest peak would be Mount Leinster.

Donegal Ken · 19-01-2021 3:13am

Ukv showing up to 75mm over higher parts of Galway by the end of Tuesday. There will be some big flooding in places.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2021 4:01am

Aye, right to draw attention to the flooding potential over the next 12 to 24 hrs. Hopefully nothing disruptive to anyone but accumulations in excess of 50mm for some places is going to cause some water logging and elevated water levels in rivers.

On the snow potential ICON has shifted the system further north again for Wednesday which is what we need to keep seeing to improve prospects for snow across more of Leinster. Be interesting to see if the rest continue that trend.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2021 4:15am

Lovely. It will be worth the ups and downs if it works out something like this.

GFS is good as well. Arpege same. GFS Para run as well.

39-574PUK.GIF?19-0

Hope this all isn't reversed in the morning

nite!

Tyrone212 · 19-01-2021 8:00am

Ecm shows snow accumulating in Donegal later today 1.6 inches highest total shown and a dusting for lower areas. Shows snow accumulating later Wednesday then for the SE. Max total for Wicklow 2.6 inches.

Isolated areas of Sleet showing up on the radar across parts of Donegal and Derry now. Summits probably taking a hit.

M.T. Cranium · 19-01-2021 8:10am

Looks like it may snow on the Isle of Man ...

(from morning forecast on met.ie)

Wednesday night: Rain along eastern coasts at first, with some sleet and snow on high ground in the Irish Sea.

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 8:11am

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Ecm shows snow accumulating in Donegal later today 1.6 inches highest total shown and a dusting for lower areas. Shows snow accumulating later Wednesday then for the SE. Max total for Wicklow 2.6 inches.

Isolated areas of Sleet showing up on the radar across parts of Donegal and Derry now. Summits probably taking a hit.

I am going to drive up to 400 metres later this afternoon and see if it is snowing.

Otherwise maybe some snow showers for us on Thursday.

Nqp15hhu · 19-01-2021 8:40am

Rain is to my south.. not doing anything

Villain · 19-01-2021 8:51am

Latest HARMONIE charts suggest snow risk is confined to Wicklow Mountains tomorrow afternoon.

19-01-2021 9:47am

Villain wrote: »

Latest HARMONIE charts suggest snow risk is confined to Wicklow Mountains tomorrow afternoon.

If even there...

Rock Lesnar · 19-01-2021 9:53am

Field water about to come in around the house, not a good day ahead

Privacy Notice · 19-01-2021 9:59am

Can't see this amounting to anything. Storm in a teacup.

19-01-2021 9:59am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Field water about to come in around the house, not a good day ahead

Bone dry down here,even a bit of sun peeping
Windy too
Wasn't expecting that
We had 4.5mm since midnight
Mild too
Currently 9.5c
Hard to believe there might be a bit of wet sleety snow tomorrow

Rock Lesnar · 19-01-2021 10:02am

AuntySnow wrote: »

Bone dry down here,even a bit of sun peeping
Windy too
Wasn't expecting that
We had 4.5mm since midnight
Mild too
Currently 9.5c
Hard to believe there might be a bit of wet sleety snow tomorrow

Well for ye, i would take 2 hours of dry weather now, this winter has been the wettest here i can remember

greenspurs · 19-01-2021 10:09am

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

6z showing a 6-7 hour window for snow for the southeast. Can't imagine it will amount to much but interesting all the same.

23 hrs ago ....

to this ....

"Latest HARMONIE charts suggest snow risk is confined to Wicklow Mountains tomorrow afternoon"

Do you ever get fed up of watching weather? Like, really, what is the attraction? Point?
Its Ireland, we will just get wishy washy weather, nothing too cold, nothing too hot.. and rain...

Personally i think its a pointless exercise for 'novice' (for lack of a better word) weather watchers to be constantly posting weather reports from different sources, as they rarely ever agree on whats going to happen...

I just dont 'get' it .....

Fitzo123 · 19-01-2021 10:13am

There's been nearly 12mm of rain in Sligo Town since midnight. Quite a lot.

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2021 10:18am

greenspurs wrote: »

23 hrs ago ....

to this ....

"Latest HARMONIE charts suggest snow risk is confined to Wicklow Mountains tomorrow afternoon"

Do you ever get fed up of watching weather? Like, really, what is the attraction? Point?
Its Ireland, we will just get wishy washy weather, nothing too cold, nothing too hot.. and rain...

Personally i think its a pointless exercise for 'novice' (for lack of a better word) weather watchers to be constantly posting weather reports from different sources, as they rarely ever agree on whats going to happen...

I just dont 'get' it .....

If I felt like you I too would search out an obscure thread on a forum for novice weather watchers on a relatively low key message board website. Its the logical thing for someone disinterested in novice weather watching to do to while away their time.

Bio Mech · 19-01-2021 10:20am

greenspurs wrote: »

23 hrs ago ....

to this ....

"Latest HARMONIE charts suggest snow risk is confined to Wicklow Mountains tomorrow afternoon"

Do you ever get fed up of watching weather? Like, really, what is the attraction? Point?
Its Ireland, we will just get wishy washy weather, nothing too cold, nothing too hot.. and rain...

Personally i think its a pointless exercise for 'novice' (for lack of a better word) weather watchers to be constantly posting weather reports from different sources, as they rarely ever agree on whats going to happen...

I just dont 'get' it .....

It’s a weather forum though. What does it matter to you?

Would you go on a football forum and ask what’s the point of kicking a ball in a net? It’s what people like to do. You’re perfectly free to stick to met eireann yourself.

I also note the irony of you complaining about “novice” weather forecasts in the sentence after you made a fairly novice statement about the weather yourself.

Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

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