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Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Kermit.de.frog

Thread for flooding potential Connaught, North Leinster, South Ulster through Monday night/Tuesday/first half of Wednesday.

Heavy snow potential second half of Wednesday particularly Leinster and Munster. Much colder by evening.

Surprised a thread wasn't started for the flood potential. Will update this OP in the morning.

Interesting 48 hours to come from tonight to say the least.

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thatsmighty

We are all stuck at home anyway ...

screamer

We’re a bunch of weather junkies this time of year....
I’m in the snow zone but wondering if there’s any chance that if it does snow will it stick around given the saturated ground......

Kermit.de.frog

Great the pub run. We need drunken charts now more than ever...

Kermit.de.frog

Rating: 4 pints/10

GFS (P)

45-574PUK.GIF?18-18

5 pints/10

Davaeo09

Is it edging "slightly" more north as you hoped for? Looks that way right? even if its only a few miles each run

Kermit.de.frog

It's still on. Arpege has pushed things a bit further north this evening as well. Let's see if the trend continues.

Little changes upstream make all the difference.

[Deleted User]

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's still on. Arpege has pushed things a bit further north this evening as well. Let's see if the trend continues.

Little changes upstream make all the difference.

You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

Danno

AuntySnow wrote: »

You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

I wouldn't place much value on the precip type the UKMO place over the Irish Republic. The precipitation forecast can be hit and miss for here at times.

red_bairn

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

..
just to remember there is a risk of flooding over the next 36 hours across north Leinster, Connaught and south Ulster in particular.

I'm in Naas. Should I consider buying a canoe to collect my daughter from the creche?

[Deleted User]

Danno wrote: »

I wouldn't place much value on the precip type the UKMO place over the Irish Republic. The precipitation forecast can be hit and miss for here at times.

They've none at all tho!
Precip gone by wenesday morning

Kermit.de.frog

AuntySnow wrote: »

They've none at all tho!
Precip gone by wenesday morning

Could be worse. You could be crying in to your cocoa in the afternoon :P

Kermit.de.frog

red_bairn wrote: »

I'm in Naas. Should I consider buying a canoe to collect my daughter from the creche?

Unless Naas is located in one of the aforementioned areas then probably not...:)

Gaoth Laidir

AuntySnow wrote: »

You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

That's fairly accurate imo. Those hatched areas on the Meteociel charts are just a "risk" of snow and by definition are only areas "where other factors, such as vertical profiles, should be analysed to determine the actual risk of snow". They show where precip could fall as snow over at least high terrain. No guarantee to lower levels. "In no case should the model be taken literally".

De même, les hachures en hiver sur la carte, sont pratiques car elles ciblent les zones à analyser pour prévenir le risque de neige. Mais en aucun cas on ne peut se contenter d’une lecture littérale du modèle, il faudra ensuite analyser le profil vertical de la masse d’air pour voir si effectivement des précipitations peuvent se produire sous forme de neige.

Kermit.de.frog

No one is taking them literally.

They are the quickest way to get across to onlookers where a risk exists. Incidentally they are also usually highly accurate these days in any case.

Rougies

I've always found the Arpege model to be pretty accurate with their precip rate/type charts at close range (<24 hrs). It's still too far out but I'm sure many of us in the east would bank this!

[Deleted User]

Yes it's all theoretical
If it does snow,it's going to be sloppy slop
Might take my 5km trip up to the croghan windmills wenesday for the crack
The public road there rises to 1000ft asl
The coillte Lane reaches to about 1600ft about 7kms inland
What should I expect up there?

[Deleted User]

Rougies wrote: »

I've always found the Arpege model to be pretty accurate with their precip rate/type charts at close range (<24 hrs). It's still too far out but I'm sure many of us in the east would bank this!

Yeah that's in theory a snapshot of a moving target too
I'd imagine if it was accurate, then 30 minutes later,the precip coming down from the higher terrain would turn the rest of that coastal strip pink

Spanish Eyes

Won’t be nice having a walk in lashing rain.. but hopefully no gales to add to the misery.

I’m no expert, but enjoy the enthusiasm of the weather junkies here. Am not expecting snow at all. But plenty of rain. Dublin South.

Mount Vesuvius

Hill snow and a wet mess on latest HARMONIE

kittyn

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Hill snow and a wet mess on latest HARMONIE

I am in the pink

admittedly I am up a decent height

Rougies

Yeah of course it's all theoretical and a wet mess is the best we can hope for below 400m. Some local areas might get a nice surprise while others rainy disappointment, regardless of what the models show. At least it's "something" to watch amid the endless gloom.

Tyrone212

Any idea what altitude the highest house would be in the South East? Highest town village is 251m.

pad199207

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Any idea what altitude the highest house would be in the South East? Highest town village is 251m.

Highest peak would be Mount Leinster.

Donegal Ken

Ukv showing up to 75mm over higher parts of Galway by the end of Tuesday. There will be some big flooding in places.

Kermit.de.frog

Aye, right to draw attention to the flooding potential over the next 12 to 24 hrs. Hopefully nothing disruptive to anyone but accumulations in excess of 50mm for some places is going to cause some water logging and elevated water levels in rivers.

On the snow potential ICON has shifted the system further north again for Wednesday which is what we need to keep seeing to improve prospects for snow across more of Leinster. Be interesting to see if the rest continue that trend.

Kermit.de.frog

Lovely. It will be worth the ups and downs if it works out something like this.

GFS is good as well. Arpege same. GFS Para run as well.

39-574PUK.GIF?19-0

Hope this all isn't reversed in the morning

nite!

Tyrone212

Ecm shows snow accumulating in Donegal later today 1.6 inches highest total shown and a dusting for lower areas. Shows snow accumulating later Wednesday then for the SE. Max total for Wicklow 2.6 inches.

Isolated areas of Sleet showing up on the radar across parts of Donegal and Derry now. Summits probably taking a hit.

M.T. Cranium

Looks like it may snow on the Isle of Man ...

(from morning forecast on met.ie)

Wednesday night: Rain along eastern coasts at first, with some sleet and snow on high ground in the Irish Sea.

Nqp15hhu

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Ecm shows snow accumulating in Donegal later today 1.6 inches highest total shown and a dusting for lower areas. Shows snow accumulating later Wednesday then for the SE. Max total for Wicklow 2.6 inches.

Isolated areas of Sleet showing up on the radar across parts of Donegal and Derry now. Summits probably taking a hit.

I am going to drive up to 400 metres later this afternoon and see if it is snowing.

Otherwise maybe some snow showers for us on Thursday.

Nqp15hhu

Rain is to my south.. not doing anything