WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

Sponge Bob · 15-02-2012 7:29pm

I agree with you Red. The Eagle never even mentioned Wintry showers though.

Redsunset · 15-02-2012 7:42pm

Specifics can't be certain yet and you would have to favour the likes of Donegal highlands and the other usual suspects for any accumulation that might cause dangerous driving conditions as it should freeze on top of any snowfall. Lower down a wintry mess but as ground will be wet,ICE would be the main hazard. We shall see.

If nothing else it's something to talk about.

Rebelbrowser · 15-02-2012 8:07pm

redsunset wrote: »

Specifics can't be certain yet and you would have to favour the likes of Donegal highlands and the other usual suspects for any accumulation that might cause dangerous driving conditions as it should freeze on top of any snowfall. Lower down a wintry mess but as ground will be wet,ICE would be the main hazard. We shall see.

If nothing else it's something to talk about.

Im posting this on the basis of charts im looking at on the phone so forgive if wrong but IF the present gfs came off wouldn't it be a lot better than that for snow?

darkman2 · 15-02-2012 8:37pm

Just a quick overview of my thoughts on the weekend on the brief cold snap.

On Friday night a band of rain will move southeastward across the country clearing the southeast early Saturday morning. This could give sleet and snow on it's back edge but it would be brief, no more then an hour or so of wintry precipitation. At the same time showers will already be packing into the west and north. These will be snow showers away from immediate Atlantic coasts where some hail is also likely. These showers will become widepread and will be frequent in the west and north. Less frequent further east and south where there will be good clear periods between showers. Temperatures will range 3 - 6c generally - it will turn colder as the day progresses and where showers are frequent and heavy temperatures will struggle above freezing and this is where accumulations of snow are likely to occur in the west and north. The showers will probably be too infrequent and less heavy in the east and south for anything more then temporary accumulations. Saturday night will see futher snow showers, widespread for a time, before dieing back later in the night to north and west facing coasts. A very cold night with temperatures widely well below freezing, a sharp frost and icy patches. Where snow has accumulated on Saturday it will freeze and this could lead to poor driving conditions in those areas. Sunday will be another cold day with temperatures of 3 - 5c generally and frost and ice will be slow to clear. A dry day. Sunday night again very cold and remaining cold for much of Monday though probably turning a little milder later in the day.

So basically - Saturday, very cold, snow showers (settling snow mostly in the west and north) - Sunday, very cold, dry - Monday, starting cold, dry and a little milder later.

Wild Bill · 15-02-2012 11:26pm

darkman2 wrote: »

So basically - Saturday, very cold, snow showers (settling snow mostly in the west and north) - Sunday, very cold, dry - Monday, starting cold, dry and a little milder later.

I have to quibble with the idea that mid-Feb maxima of 3-5C is very cold; given that average maxima for the period range about 7-9C.

But at best we are looking at, what? A bit of sleet at sea level and maybe some snow showers briefly sticking on high ground in the Northwest; probably nothing of note in Dublin - maybe not even an air frost if the NW wind persists?

Su Campu · 15-02-2012 11:43pm

Some snow should make it to sea level in the north, and with -40 °C T500s near Scotland we should see some more organised comma systems. Some more mixed showers further south, dying out in the evening. A harsh frost Saturday night, but I think high cloud will prevent serious frosts Sunday and Monday nights.

Rebelbrowser · 15-02-2012 11:43pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

darkman2 wrote: »

So basically - Saturday, very cold, snow showers (settling snow mostly in the west and north) - Sunday, very cold, dry - Monday, starting cold, dry and a little milder later.

I have to quibble with the idea that mid-Feb maxima of 3-5C is very cold; given that average maxima for the period range about 7-9C.

But at best we are looking at, what? A bit of sleet at sea level and maybe some snow showers briefly sticking on high ground in the Northwest; probably nothing of note in Dublin - maybe not even an air frost if the NW wind persists?

I suspect what will actually come to pass will be as you describe but the gfs upto 12z (haven't seen 18z) would be better than that.

Su Campu · 16-02-2012 12:10am

ECMWF thickness for midday Saturday, showing 520 dam in Ulster, well cold enough for low level snow there.

Source: http://www.sar.sardegna.it/servizi/meteo/analisi.asp

Redsunset · 16-02-2012 12:42am

well going by tonight's output then there perhaps is a more serious need of alert for significant snow accumulations on high ground in Ulster, North Leinster and parts of Connacht. Ice forming on low level sprinkle would be my main concern too. Showers could gang up creating prolonged spells.

davidsr20 · 16-02-2012 1:36am

redsunset wrote: »

well going by tonight's output then there perhaps is a more serious need of alert for significant snow accumulations on high ground in Ulster, North Leinster and parts of Connacht. Ice forming on low level sprinkle would be my main concern too. Showers could gang up creating prolonged spells.

On higher ground the story of our lives

Redsunset · 16-02-2012 1:47am

Done this up to highlight the RISK
I'm not discounting low level snow, good chance too but unsure if it would be much. Ice will be a problem.

Senna · 16-02-2012 4:02am

^^^^^^^^^^^
One of those arrows literately points at my house:D

darkman2 · 16-02-2012 7:06am

hmmm the thread title is very conservative. I prefer my threads with the

. Much more dramatic and accurate.

EDIT by Redsunset
You had Saturday-Snow Showers as thread title in your one. Nothing too dramatic bout that. This one has been adjusted to suit guidance in somewhat reliable time frame. No point in going off the rails just for the sake of creating excitement. This is not a competition to see who can come up with the best cinema title.

Redsunset · 16-02-2012 8:31am

Met Eireann have upgrade the risk this morning of snow falling to lower levels too, so a stronger warning is issued here in thread title.

Saturday : Rain will continue to clear all parts by late morning or early afternoon, with sunny spells developing. Scattered showers will occur, mainly in developing. Scattered showers will occur, mainly in Ulster, Connacht and west Munster, some of hail, with a risk of thunder. It will turn very cold, with an increasing risk of wintry showers of sleet or snow on hills, but possibly at lower levels on Saturday night. Max. daytime temperatures 5 to 9 Celsius, with moderate to fresh, west to northwest winds, easing overnight. widespread frost overnight, with a risk of icy stretches. Min. 0 to minus 2 C. Some fog also, as winds slacken.

ednwireland · 16-02-2012 9:45am

still no severe weather warning on the northern ireland forecast

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

A lot colder than of late with wintry showers and strong winds, especially on Saturday with some snow to low levels. Wet and windy weather returning on Monday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_radar.html

mickger844posts · 16-02-2012 9:53am

Interesting overnight runs with the big 3 all showing -8 uppers over much of the country by Sunday.

Redsunset · 16-02-2012 9:57am

That's fine, but they are saying some snow to lower levels too. What would it be like higher then. Could be blizzard like at times in heavy bursts with fresh winds. All that is being done on this end is to highlight the risk and that is all it is at this stage.

maw368 · 16-02-2012 10:14am

I know its not the same when you have no snow on low levels but if you do get the opportunity to wonder into the mountains you will be grateful you did. The last period of snow I had there was nothing but wet surfaces in town, you wouldn't believe there was snow anywhere but up the mountain at only 350m it was awesome with many drifts above the knee.

Anyway I hope you guys get to see a good snow fall before this winters end, take pictures for us if you get any

Speak Now · 16-02-2012 10:23am

mickger844posts wrote: »

Interesting overnight runs with the big 3 all showing -8 uppers over much of the country by Sunday.

Should ensure a nice frost in Waterford on Sunday morning Mick

Rebelbrowser · 16-02-2012 11:20am

maw368 wrote: »

I know its not the same when you have no snow on low levels but if you do get the opportunity to wonder into the mountains you will be grateful you did. The last period of snow I had there was nothing but wet surfaces in town, you wouldn't believe there was snow anywhere but up the mountain at only 350m it was awesome with many drifts above the knee.

Anyway I hope you guys get to see a good snow fall before this winters end, take pictures for us if you get any

Sorry, a bit OT, but following this point, if this weekend (or some other time) there is a higher ground snow event including munster, where would be a good and safe place you could drive to with kids to show them the snow etc? Stupid question probably but can you drive partially up the Galtees, the Comeraghs, the Cork/Kerry border mountains, etc and, if so, would that be a stupid thing to do? My little fellas is as mad about snow as me so if there was snow that we could go to within an hours drive or so (from Cork City) I'd happily make the excursion.

blackius · 16-02-2012 1:32pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

maw368 wrote: »

I know its not the same when you have no snow on low levels but if you do get the opportunity to wonder into the mountains you will be grateful you did. The last period of snow I had there was nothing but wet surfaces in town, you wouldn't believe there was snow anywhere but up the mountain at only 350m it was awesome with many drifts above the knee.

Anyway I hope you guys get to see a good snow fall before this winters end, take pictures for us if you get any

Sorry, a bit OT, but following this point, if this weekend (or some other time) there is a higher ground snow event including munster, where would be a good and safe place you could drive to with kids to show them the snow etc? Stupid question probably but can you drive partially up the Galtees, the Comeraghs, the Cork/Kerry border mountains, etc and, if so, would that be a stupid thing to do? My little fellas is as mad about snow as me so if there was snow that we could go to within an hours drive or so (from Cork City) I'd happily make the excursion.

Head out to macroom,take a left before the town heading for inchigeelagh but turn for kilmichael at tooms bridge instead of inchigeelagh.It gets very mountainy up that direction.

Alternatively take the road for millstreet out of macroom(turn right at the top edge of town watch for the sign,instead of continuing towards killarney) .
Just north of carriginima (a tiny village with 1 school,a pub and church) take a road west and head in the direction of the mullaghanish rte transmitter.
Loads of other options that I'm sure the locals will post on.
Bring food,blankets,drinks,a few flasks of tea,2 charged phones (leave 1 off unless you need it),have a 4wd with a full tank and tell people where you are going and when to expect you back.
Mobile Reception will be flakey.

Macy0161 · 16-02-2012 1:38pm

Is it likely to get that far south, or will they peter out as they move down the country? What's the chances of the Wicklow Mountains getting snow?

blackius · 16-02-2012 2:00pm

Macy0161 wrote: »

Is it likely to get that far south, or will they peter out as they move down the country? What's the chances of the Wicklow Mountains getting snow?

Its a northwesterly so yes west Munster is in the firing line for showers.
Less likely to have showers on the Wicklow mtns than down in west cork.
Its lake effect showers caused by cold air moving over the Atlantic this time so proximity to the Atlantic matters.

Calibos · 16-02-2012 2:53pm

Macy0161 wrote: »

Is it likely to get that far south, or will they peter out as they move down the country? What's the chances of the Wicklow Mountains getting snow?

Was going to ask this myself I planned to attend a stargazing session organised for Saturday night up the Wicklow mountains. I take it we only need to worry about ice on the roads and not snow.

Rebelbrowser · 16-02-2012 2:57pm

Calibos wrote: »

Was going to ask this myself I planned to attend a stargazing session organised for Saturday night up the Wicklow mountains. I take it we only need to worry about ice on the roads and not snow.

I don't think you could rule it out by any means

Harps · 16-02-2012 3:43pm

There'll probably be a few light showers in Wicklow but coming across the whole country obviously they won't be as heavy as on the north & west coasts

Seen quite a bit of snow in the hills here this winter so haven't been too excited about this set up but it'd be nice to get a covering here in the town, haven't seen a single flake fall here since the storm on December 13th. Should be some nice squally showers about regardless of what they happen to fall as so an interesting day of weather ahead at long last

frogcheese · 16-02-2012 3:46pm

let it snowwwww HO HO HO!!

g0g · 16-02-2012 4:11pm

I've got to be up in Roundwood 19:00 to possibly 22:00 on Saturday - bad idea? I don't mind light snow, cold or ice, but would rather not have to trek home through a few cm's of snow!

Rikand · 16-02-2012 7:02pm

hopefully doesnt snow too much around Athlone. Big golf match on Sunday!

200motels · 16-02-2012 9:30pm

I can guarantee we won't see any snow down here.

ninebeanrows · 16-02-2012 9:59pm

I can't believe my name is associated with the thread title :eek::o

Maybe a tad OTT! I didn't write it!

ZX7R · 16-02-2012 10:19pm

I know this is off topic but,when i am on the main page for the weather forem it is showing unwritten posts in every forem but when i click and go inside there are no new messages, is anyone else experencing this?

TURRICAN · 16-02-2012 10:27pm

ZX7R wrote: »

I know this is off topic but,when i am on the main page for the weather forem it is showing unwritten posts in every forem but when i click and go inside there are no new messages, is anyone else experencing this?[

Ya sometimes. Probably a glitch in the boards system

Su Campu · 16-02-2012 10:29pm

We need to be on the lookout for an organised comma system or even a polar low moving down from the north during Saturday night. Scotland or northern England would probably be more in line but it could affect Ulster too for a time. The models aren't showing it at the moment but I reckon a satellite watch could be a good idea during Saturday.

ZX7R · 16-02-2012 10:45pm

Su Campu wrote: »

We need to be on the lookout for an organised comma system or even a polar low moving down from the north during Saturday night. Scotland or northern England would probably be more in line but it could affect Ulster too for a time. The models aren't showing it at the moment but I reckon a satellite watch could be a good idea during Saturday.

That means some windy weather corect su, how far inland would yoy expect it to track

Wild Bill · 16-02-2012 10:48pm

g0g wrote: »

I've got to be up in Roundwood 19:00 to possibly 22:00 on Saturday - bad idea? I don't mind light snow, cold or ice, but would rather not have to trek home through a few cm's of snow!

Snow is the very last thing you should worry about! :cool:

Su Campu · 16-02-2012 10:58pm

ZX7R wrote: »

That means some windy weather corect su, how far inland would yoy expect it to track

Well probably not that windy but an organised band of showery precipitation, which would probably fall as snow in the north (but more likely Scotland). Upper charts show the vort max driving force for this strongest over Scotland.

On IR satellite imagery we should see a clear slot behind the frontal cloudband, then showers getting into the north. Behind these we should see larger bright enhanced cumuli forming a cluster as it heads southeastwards. Watch for that during the afternoon and evening. This band of showers would survive longer over land due to the upper forcing, but it could be that Scotland and down through northern England gets the fun.

Wild Bill · 16-02-2012 10:59pm

Met Eireann says:

Saturday : Rain will continue to clear all parts by late morning or early afternoon, with sunny spells developing. Scattered showers will occur, mainly in Ulster, Connacht and west Munster, some of hail, with a risk of thunder. It will turn very cold, with an increasing risk of wintry showers of sleet or snow on hills, but possibly at lower levels on Saturday night. Max. daytime temperatures 5 to 9 Celsius, with moderate to fresh, west to northwest winds, easing overnight. widespread frost overnight, with a risk of icy stretches. Min. 0 to minus 2 C. Some fog also, as winds slacken.

Note "very cold" is maxima of 5 to 9C (seasonal average) and a "risk" of icy stretches as temps plummet to a Siberian 0C to maybe even....-2C :eek:

So...some ice on your car and if you're really lucky a bit of frozen graupel for a few hours overnight.

I'm, like, soooo excited :rolleyes:

smallwonder · 16-02-2012 11:13pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I can't believe my name is associated with the thread title :eek::o

Maybe a tad OTT! I didn't write it!

Really?? Whose thread are we following then

?

Su Campu · 16-02-2012 11:15pm

smallwonder wrote: »

Really?? Whose thread are we following then?

The title was changed by another moderator.

Wild Bill · 16-02-2012 11:19pm

MT's take:

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, turning colder in stages, hail showers rather frequent at first, then mixed wintry showers developing later and persisting overnight in some parts of the north. Temperatures steady 5-7 C then falling off to about 2-4 C late afternoon. Winds veering to NW 30-50 mph adding a chill.

SUNDAY ... Mixed wintry showers over some parts of the north early morning but otherwise clear intervals and quite cold despite a steady northwest wind in most places ... a few sheltered places well inland could see frost and lows of -2 C but otherwise lows 1-3 C ... sunny intervals mid-day, still quite cold as temperatures struggle up towards 5-7 C. Cloudy with rain or sleet arriving late, temperatures steady 4-6 C.

Can't quite see the "heavy snow and disruption for Northern regions" in that...but maybe I'm a bit slow :cool:

MONDAY ... Rain ending during the morning, turning considerably milder in strong southwest winds. Highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, windy, showers ... lows 3-5 C and highs about 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some very mild weather appears to be heading in later next week and it could reach 15 C in some places well inland in a southwesterly flow.

But I can certainly sense warmth above the seasonal in that!

(And by late next week official winter is done and dusted)

Oscar Bravo · 17-02-2012 12:41am

Cold over the weekend, but becoming milder with wet and windy weather from Monday onwards.

Saturday night will be cold with lowest temperatures of 0 to -2 degrees. There is the risk of some wintry showers along the north and northwest coasts, some of the showers will be of sleet or snow on higher ground. As winds become very light there is also the risk of some fog forming as well as a widespread frost.
It will be a cold and frosty start to Sunday, however it will be generally dry and bright. In the north it will be cloudier with some scattered showers. Highest temperatures of only 4 to 7 degrees in light winds. It will quickly become cold once again on Sunday evening after the sun goes down, with another widespread expected as temperatures fall to between 0 and -2 degrees. The cold weather will clear however overnight as cloud and rain move in from the Atlantic and those freshening southerly winds will bring higher temperatures. So on Monday there will be widespread heavy rain with fresh to strong southerly winds. Temperatures will improve and will range from 8 to 10 degrees. On Tuesday there will be more spells of rain with temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees. The wet and windy but mild weather will continue into Wednesday as well.

pistolpetes11 · 17-02-2012 12:48am

Weathercheck wrote: »

I can't believe my name is associated with the thread title :eek::o

Maybe a tad OTT! I didn't write it!

Haha nor I , Ive been on the driving range most of the week :pac:

davidsr20 · 17-02-2012 12:56am

How come mt hasn't mentioned any of this snow for the weekend?

Oscar Bravo · 17-02-2012 1:11am

Time to lock thread i think.

Redsunset · 17-02-2012 1:13am

I changed the title and said it in a previous post. I don't see anything wrong with it. I was specific bout mentioning high ground in the north feeling the brunt in a post and when Met Eireann and UK Met mentioned about lower levels too I upgrade the title. the word RISK highlights only a possibility, not set in stone. To be honest I think parts of the north will experience a good taste of snow with showers piling up.
I put the Risk in this thread because Weathercheck highlighted it as one to watch, it was a relatively new thread and did not feel a new one was warranted when Darkman2 started a new Snow thread for Sat.
That is all

Previous post.

Oscar Bravo · 17-02-2012 1:16am

Fair enough Red Sunset.

Deep Easterly · 17-02-2012 2:45am

Wild Bill wrote: »

Note "very cold" is maxima of 5 to 9C (seasonal average)

I'm, like, soooo excited :rolleyes:

A very pragmatic forecast, and rightly so I think.

Wild Bill, a little experiment for you: Blow steadily on the back of your hand and you will feel a small cooling effect. Now, give the back of your hand a good, slobbery lick then blow on it again with the same vigor as you did the first time and it will feel even colder.

The forecast temps for saturday are not exciting for sure, but are likely to coincide with some impressively low relative humidity values that are forecast follow in behind the cold front: (forecast RH for 15hrs Saturday)

This will help not only to lower dew point temps, but also will serve to increase the dewpoint depression, which is the measure of the difference between the actual air temperature and dew point temperature. The wider the dew point depression, the greater the chance that evaporation will occur; and since we humans are made up of about 70% water and sweat like pigs even on seemingly cold days, then we will experience the chill of evaprotive cooling on our skin, pretty much like in the little experiment above, regardless of the actual air temperature. So it will basically feel colder than the forecast temps suggest and all the more so when you include the 'wind-chill' effect on top of this as well.

Edit: Just to add a chart showing the temperature and dewpoint temperature forecast for Wild Bill's home place for this coming Saturday. A high 'dewpoint depression' is expected during the afternoon, which will make it feel pretty nippy despite the near normalness of the actual air temperature.

Source: yr.no

Dotsie~tmp · 17-02-2012 7:17am

redsunset wrote: »

I changed the title and said it in a previous post. I don't see anything wrong with it. I was specific bout mentioning high ground in the north feeling the brunt in a post and when Met Eireann and UK Met mentioned about lower levels too I upgrade the title. the word RISK highlights only a possibility, not set in stone. To be honest I think parts of the north will experience a good taste of snow with showers piling up.
I put the Risk in this thread because Weathercheck highlighted it as one to watch, it was a relatively new thread and did not feel a new one was warranted when Darkman2 started a new Snow thread for Sat.
That is all

Previous post.

Hmm you seem to have highlighted everywhere where noboy lives. Anyway a mild Ph soap with some hot water will clean that egg right up.

Edit
BANNED for 7 days, Posters history suggests they have hardly ever anything good to say on this forum. So is Trolling.

blackius · 17-02-2012 11:12am

Probably very few showers flowing in off the Kerry coast into west cork,looking at this in more detail and even less chance on the Wicklow mtns.
Up on the high ground any rogue shower in Wicklow will be snow.
Down in cork and Kerry, given the flow will be off the Atlantic, I'd be very surprised if there weren't enough showers to give at least a dusting on the mountains.

As for Ulster/north connaught ...something a tad more significant is likely and there should be guaranteed hill snow cover for the Sunday stroll especially in donegal,sligo and mayo.

WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

Comments