Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

faceman · 30-05-2020 11:50am

Can anyone explain what the goals are here? We were told flatten the curve. Then r value less than 1 (currently 0.4). So what are our targets/goals/objectives?

yawhat? · 30-05-2020 11:51am

niallo27 wrote: »

If it so effective, why are the rest of europe not doing it.

Again, I’m not arguing about it’s effectiveness. I was responding to poster who said there was no logic to it. There is a logic to it.

MickeyLeari · 30-05-2020 11:53am

faceman wrote: »

Can anyone explain what the goals are here? We were told flatten the curve. Then r value less than 1 (currently 0.4). So what are our targets/goals/objectives?

That is the key question.

Micky 32 · 30-05-2020 11:58am

faceman wrote: »

Can anyone explain what the goals are here? We were told flatten the curve. Then r value less than 1 (currently 0.4). So what are our targets/goals/objectives?

If on this thread i think the goal for some of the posters is to get it down to zero cases. Then stay in lockdown further to keep it there just in case it comes back

niallo27 · 30-05-2020 12:00pm

yawhat? wrote: »

Again, I’m not arguing about it’s effectiveness. I was responding to poster who said there was no logic to it. There is a logic to it.

Well if it is not effective then surely there is no logic to it.

MickeyLeari · 30-05-2020 12:00pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Would this be the same Micheal Martin that was a senior Cabinet minister during the credit and property bubble that when it burst resulted in hundreds of thousands of these "ordinary persons" losing their livelihoods and worse?

That Government did make a lot of mistakes (and avoidable ones) but they did build a lot of roads and invested in infrastructure plus Martin was responsible for the most important public health measure this country has ever introduced and we were a leader in that.

What we are facing now is far worse. We have no room to manoeuvre.

yawhat? · 30-05-2020 12:06pm

niallo27 wrote: »

Well if it is not effective then surely there is no logic to it.

You can explain it to them, but you can’t make them understand.

Thelonious Monk · 30-05-2020 12:07pm

My parents were having beers and food in a restaurant in Spain last night and sending me pictures, lucky gits. Now they live in the Communidad de Valencia, which wasn't affected badly by the disease, and the regions have their own autonomy on these rules, and tbf everyone sits outside in Spain, but if they're already up and running in Spain, surely we could do the same in Ireland, given our low transmission rate?
I live in Dublin but see no reason why restaurants and pubs can't be open in rural Ireland, for people who live in the area. If we stick to our travel restrictions (even though our lame police force don't seem to be enforcing any laws at all, covid related or not), how would this cause any issues?
I don't even want to go to pubs or restaurants myself, but it would help morale and the economy if this were to happen. The illness isn't going away, we need to just suck it up at this stage, and I was a staunch supporter of the measures for the first couple of months.

Cork Boy 53 · 30-05-2020 12:07pm

MickeyLeari wrote: »

That Government did make a lot of mistakes (and avoidable ones) but they did build a lot of roads and invested in infrastructure plus Martin was responsible for the most important public health measure this country has ever introduced and we were a leader in that.

What we are facing now is far worse. We have no room to manoeuvre.

And who also was responsible for founding the HSE the organisation that has come under fire for many reasons a lot of them justifiable in fairness.

MickeyLeari · 30-05-2020 12:11pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

And who also was responsible for founding the HSE the organisation that has come under fire for many reasons a lot of them justifiable in fairness.

Was it not Harney who pushed that? HSE is not as good as it could be but what was there before was no great shakes either.

Cork Boy 53 · 30-05-2020 12:21pm

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Was it not Harney who pushed that? HSE is not as good as it could be but what was there before was no great shakes either.

Not really. Harney took over as Health Minister when it was up and running but Martin was responsible for dismantling the previous regional Health Boards and setting up the HSE.

fleet_admiral · 30-05-2020 12:25pm

DubInMeath wrote: »

You probably shouldn't have voted for FG in the last election then.

As for largest leftist media, that's the best laugh I've had all morning.

If you can't see that the Irish media is completely left then you've had youre head in the sand

MickeyLeari · 30-05-2020 12:26pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not really. Harney took over as Health Minister when it was up and running but Martin was responsible for dismantling the previous regional Health Boards and setting up the HSE.

And FG came in and dismantled the Board. The previous health boards were sub-optimal as is the HSE - the idea itself was ok - the problem was vested interests and the unwillingness of successive governments to take them on.

Ginger n Lemon · 30-05-2020 12:29pm

The other side of lockdown Simon Harris never speaks about

Women report being strangled, raped and beaten as calls to helpline surge during lockdown

CALLS TO CHARITY Women’s Aid have risen by nearly 40% since the start of the Covid-19 restrictions.

New figures released today by the organisation show that it received over 4,000 calls to its 24-hour domestic abuse helpline since late March – a 39% increase on the same period last year.

https://www.thejournal.ie/womens-aid-coronavius-covid-19-helpline-domestic-violence-5110363-May2020/

By removing most of these nonsense restrictions not only businesses will benefit but people too.

fleet_admiral · 30-05-2020 12:29pm

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

The other side of lockdown Simon Harris never speaks about

Women report being strangled, raped and beaten as calls to helpline surge during lockdown

CALLS TO CHARITY Women’s Aid have risen by nearly 40% since the start of the Covid-19 restrictions.

New figures released today by the organisation show that it received over 4,000 calls to its 24-hour domestic abuse helpline since late March – a 39% increase on the same period last year.

https://www.thejournal.ie/womens-aid-coronavius-covid-19-helpline-domestic-violence-5110363-May2020/

By removing most of these nonsense restrictions not only businesses will benefit but people too.

I know men who have rang women's aid because the helpline for male abuse victims isn't 24hr

Doctor Jimbob · 30-05-2020 12:30pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

My parents were having beers and food in a restaurant in Spain last night and sending me pictures, lucky gits. Now they live in the Communidad de Valencia, which wasn't affected badly by the disease, and the regions have their own autonomy on these rules, and tbf everyone sits outside in Spain, but if they're already up and running in Spain, surely we could do the same in Ireland, given our low transmission rate?
I live in Dublin but see no reason why restaurants and pubs can't be open in rural Ireland, for people who live in the area. If we stick to our travel restrictions (even though our lame police force don't seem to be enforcing any laws at all, covid related or not), how would this cause any issues?
I don't even want to go to pubs or restaurants myself, but it would help morale and the economy if this were to happen. The illness isn't going away, we need to just suck it up at this stage, and I was a staunch supporter of the measures for the first couple of months.

I can't see a rational reason to not go for a regional approach at this stage. There are plenty of counties that have had no new cases or near enough to it for days now.

I'd say the main reason against it is fear of people kicking up a fuss in areas that have a high number of cases.

the kelt · 30-05-2020 12:30pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

My parents were having beers and food in a restaurant in Spain last night and sending me pictures, lucky gits. Now they live in the Communidad de Valencia, which wasn't affected badly by the disease, and the regions have their own autonomy on these rules, and tbf everyone sits outside in Spain, but if they're already up and running in Spain, surely we could do the same in Ireland, given our low transmission rate?
I live in Dublin but see no reason why restaurants and pubs can't be open in rural Ireland, for people who live in the area. If we stick to our travel restrictions (even though our lame police force don't seem to be enforcing any laws at all, covid related or not), how would this cause any issues?
I don't even want to go to pubs or restaurants myself, but it would help morale and the economy if this were to happen. The illness isn't going away, we need to just suck it up at this stage, and I was a staunch supporter of the measures for the first couple of months.

Because apparently it’s completely impossible and unfair to treat rural Ireland any differently by all accounts.

That is of course until it comes to infrastructure, investment, jobs etc then it’s perfectly acceptable to treat rural Ireland differently

Tenzor07 · 30-05-2020 12:45pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Now that the rate of infection has dropped so low, because of the tight restrictions, they can begin to accelerate the lifting of containment measures. But there will be surges, it's about balancing society and the economy with containing the virus to acceptable levels. It will need constant monitoring and quick, fluid responses. The very last thing Ireland needs is a re-introduction of severe containment measures and a spike that overwhelms the health service.

I'd like to see the direct facts/figures which says that Tight Restrictions was the reason the R0 rate dropped down?
Or was it the case that the virus was spread by larger numbers of asymptomatic carriers to those with pre-existing conditions such as weakened immune systems and may have died due to complications and comorbidity who were the most likely to die when the virus first arrived in Ireland?

If the initial high rate of deaths were due to the most vulnerable groups passing away first, and taking into account that we look at the new cases per day as say 50 but in reality could be 500 or 5000 as we've no mass-testing going on, then what's your evidence of these "Spikes that will overwhelm the health service" when it hasn't been overwhelmed already, what will make any future spikes worse than when we carried on as if there was no virus? After all, we're all better at hygiene awareness and physical distancing now...

fret_wimp2 · 30-05-2020 12:47pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Phoenix Park is more than 5km from Stephens Green. Unless you literally went in the gate at the courts and stopped.

And that’s assuming you live on Stephens Green.

You practically admitted to breaking the rules.

the rules are a 5k radius.
Radius is a straight line from the perimeter of a circle to the center of the same circle.
There are tools to even show you what that is.

Here is a circle of 5 k radius encompassing the entire phoenix park & stephens green.
In case its not clear, someone can go from one side of the circle to the other.

I guess its no wonder you break the rules, you dont even understand them.
There could be a plus, you may not have been actually breaking them even though you were trying!

polesheep · 30-05-2020 12:51pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No problem, I'll explain. The government and its advisors had this pandemic dumped on them suddenly. As did every other government in the world. They're not particularly evil or stupid people so they did what they thought was the right thing based on advice (often conflicting) from WHO, other governments, HSE etc. The decisions they made, based on scant data, were literally life or death. I feel sorry for them having to do this. I find people who attack them and their advisors, and dismiss their pressure and stress, to be shallow, pampered and self-entitled fools who are lashing out blindly. They're usually the perfect fodder for political manipulation. Useful idiots.

So anyone who criticises the government and its advisors is "pampered and self-entitled fools who are lashing out blindly. They're usually the perfect fodder for political manipulation. Useful idiots." That still makes no sense to any intelligent person.

Tenzor07 · 30-05-2020 12:57pm

yawhat? wrote: »

Another live one.
It’s to dampen down the geographical spread of the virus.
It’s not saying a person from 2km away is less risk than a person from 7km away.
The logic is pretty simple. To say there is no logic is pretty stupid. If you can’t see the logic, then you are pretty simple.
You might not agree with the measure, but that’s a different argument.

You seem to have great insight into the distance restriction.

Without the ability to test you have no way to know if the "Geographical spread" is actually happening or not, it's guess work.

Confining people into these 2k, 5k circles as a blanket measure, is a blunt tool, someone who lives in a 5k radius which within in could have a population of 100,000+ with many more social contacts from just walking down the street, going to the supermarket, doesn't make sense when you apply it to someone who lives in Leitrim with a population of around 32,000 people and an area of 1,590 km2, they can walk 10k and not meet anyone...

So basically, these 2k/5k limits are pointless.

Professor Moriarty · 30-05-2020 12:58pm

polesheep wrote: »

So anyone who criticises the government and its advisors is "pampered and self-entitled fools who are lashing out blindly. They're usually the perfect fodder for political manipulation. Useful idiots." That still makes no sense to any intelligent person.

This is kind of boring now. You should try to read the whole post properly. Or maybe you're deliberately misquoting. Read it again in the context of "...and dismiss their pressure and stress..."

FintanMcluskey · 30-05-2020 1:00pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

And who also was responsible for founding the HSE the organisation that has come under fire for many reasons a lot of them justifiable in fairness.

The European union

polesheep · 30-05-2020 1:02pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is kind of boring now. You should try to read the whole post properly. Or maybe you're deliberately misquoting. Read it again in the context of "...and dismiss their pressure and stress..."

I understand that you hero worship the government and its advisors, but they faced no more stress than any other government, many of which handled things much better and they knew that it comes with the job when they took it. I also think that you will find that there has been considerably more pressure and stress felt by those responsible for handling the major fu*k up that your heroes caused in the nursing/care homes.

FintanMcluskey · 30-05-2020 1:07pm

faceman wrote: »

Can anyone explain what the goals are here? We were told flatten the curve. Then r value less than 1 (currently 0.4). So what are our targets/goals/objectives?

Its been clearly explained many times by Tony H, the exact figures to be achieved before the restrictions are lifted are similar for R value, hospitalisation numbers and new cases numbers.

Those numbers need to be "as low as possible".

Tenzor07 · 30-05-2020 1:13pm

faceman wrote: »

Can anyone explain what the goals are here? We were told flatten the curve. Then r value less than 1 (currently 0.4). So what are our targets/goals/objectives?

The aim appears to be from the HSE to keep the R0 rate at 0.5 and less until a Vaccine is discovered, tested, manufactured, distributed globally to billions..

So perhaps by late Spring 2021 at the earliest, we may have a vaccine.

What's clear now is that by Ireland following the Lockdown it cannot be dismantled overnight it cannot be brought forward to any degree of significance, the shutdown of the economy and society and the implementation of restrictive laws now have to be gradually reduced as they are being now. Those in power know that stepping back won't work either, even the best in the world at fighting this, South Korea know this too...though they live in a much more compliant/disciplined society.

Tenzor07 · 30-05-2020 1:17pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Its been clearly explained many times by Tony H, the exact figures to be achieved before the restrictions are lifted are similar for R value, hospitalisation numbers and new cases numbers.
Those numbers need to be "as low as possible".

They are "as low as possible"

Unless you completely close the borders to NI/UK/Europe, test and trace spikes in infections, re-introduce further and more restrictive lockdowns.

Using the R0 rate as a way to measure success without mass testing to see who has Covid and who has had it is also another blunt tool.

Jackman25 · 30-05-2020 1:21pm

yawhat? wrote: »

Another live one.

It’s to dampen down the geographical spread of the virus.

It’s not saying a person from 2km away is less risk than a person from 7km away.

The logic is pretty simple. To say there is no logic is pretty stupid. If you can’t see the logic, then you are pretty simple.

You might not agree with the measure, but that’s a different argument.

You can lose the attitude. It makes you look like a twat.

I cannot see the logic of people not being able to visit family with suitable social distancing outside 20KM for 5 months.
With social distancing or even remaining outside for the duration of the visit, the chances of it being passed on are absolutely miniscule if not non-existent.

Even in the extremely unlikely event of it being passed on, the continued observance of social distancing should keep it contained and make for very easy contact tracing.

Contact tracing should be very straightforward. Social distancing should keep it from spreading even with the miniscule chance of it being passed to said family.

Professor Moriarty · 30-05-2020 1:23pm

polesheep wrote: »

I understand that you hero worship the government and its advisors, but they faced no more stress than any other government, many of which handled things much better and they knew that it comes with the job when they took it. I also think that you will find that there has been considerably more pressure and stress felt by those responsible for handling the major fu*k up that your heroes caused in the nursing/care homes.

So, because I have sympathy for Vradakar, Harris and Holohan in having to make life and death decisions, they are my "heroes". That's rather shallow and binary thinking isn't it?

Idbatterim · 30-05-2020 1:24pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

To be honest i don’t agree with it being called a Mickey Mouse virus. For most people it probably will be but in my situation i have to be cautious..

Both my parents are in their 70’s. They are quite fit and active but both have heart conditions. Even with their conditions they still could get another good 10 years.

If they got this virus tomorrow it could take those potential 10 years away in a blink of an eye. As we all know 10 years in a short lifetime is a nice chunk out of anyone’s lifespan. You can do lots in 10 years.

However I’m all for easing restrictions in correlation to how bad it is. If it keeps improving the way it has been some phases should definitely be brought forward.

yeah, I meant to clarify this earlier and got distracted. My parents and and one brother, are cocooning. They obviously go out for grocery shopping, drive, one goes in to do the shopping. I was speaking to my mum yesterday and we were just having a general chat, I just told her I couldnt care less if I caught it. But obviously I was telling her to make sure to be as reasonably safe as possible , likewise the bro and dad. When I say the mickey mouse virus, I mean to the vast majority of us. I am just so frustrated with the over the top lockdown and I absolutely knew this was coming the moment this hit, its such an appalling run country, devoid of leadership and loves nothing but talking, talking and more talking...

I dont like being told what to do, at the start, the approach taken was the right one, but I wont even give them credit for that, of course a hyper conservative government and media, were always going to do for that route. The blatant cost of that, is now, they shut up shop pretty quickly, but look at what this type of governance does now. I can see a few months and years down the road, the payback this will likely have! Many will change their minds then on this "lock it all down mentality"..,

Professor Moriarty · 30-05-2020 1:26pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

They are "as low as possible"

Unless you completely close the borders to NI/UK/Europe, test and trace spikes in infections, re-introduce further and more restrictive lockdowns.

Using the R0 rate as a way to measure success without mass testing to see who has Covid and who has had it is also another blunt tool.

I read somewhere recently, can't find it right now, that it is estimated that less than 5% of Ireland's population has been infected.

iamwhoiam · 30-05-2020 1:29pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Its been clearly explained many times by Tony H, the exact figures to be achieved before the restrictions are lifted are similar for R value, hospitalisation numbers and new cases numbers.

Those numbers need to be "as low as possible".

As low as possible is not at all clear .It is only so they can move the goalposts as they see fit
Technically as low as possible means zero

MickeyLeari · 30-05-2020 1:32pm

I cannot post a link but there is a story in the Cork Examiner on what Holohan said at the presser yesterday.

- in respect to easing the lockdown he said we are different than other countries in Europe in terms of our peak - is this the case particularly if we exclude nursing home deaths? (the blame lies with Tony and Simon on that one).
- he does not foresee air travel in the short term and people should not make plans (who TF made this guy the Government).

The Government from next week needs to stop these press conferences and make them politician led. Michael O’Leary and Michael Smurfit are right - this man is dangerous.

Edit - I think this situation is dangerous on many levels. Advisors advise and Ministers decide.

MickeyLeari · 30-05-2020 1:33pm

iamwhoiam wrote: »

As low as possible is not at all clear .It is only so they can move the goalposts as they see fit
Technically as low as possible means zero

Perhaps zero is not enough if they perceive the risk to remain.

Deeper Blue · 30-05-2020 1:34pm

faceman wrote: »

Can anyone explain what the goals are here? We were told flatten the curve. Then r value less than 1 (currently 0.4). So what are our targets/goals/objectives?

Lockdown forever and patronise the entire population every 3/4 days

Ginger n Lemon · 30-05-2020 1:34pm

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I cannot post a link but there is a story in the Cork Examiner on what Holohan said at the presser yesterday.

- in respect to easing the lockdown he said we are different than other countries in Europe in terms of our peak - is this the case particularly if we exclude nursing home deaths? (the blame lies with Tony and Simon on that one).
- he does not foresee air travel in the short term and people should not make plans (who TF made this guy the Government).

The Government from next week needs to stop these press conferences and make them politician led. Michael O’Leary and Michael Smurfit are right - this man is dangerous.

Oh uh, i am looking at Ryanair website now to book return tickets Dublin to Berlin for 100 euros roundtrip and see a 4 star city centre 9/10 rated hotel for 3 nights with breakfast and free cancellation 268 euros.

What do i do?

These low prices are hypnotising

is_that_so · 30-05-2020 1:36pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

So basically, these 2k/5k limits are pointless.

They work in the sense that most people will comply with them so you do have a form of control of movement.

Tenzor07 · 30-05-2020 1:37pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I read somewhere recently, can't find it right now, that it is estimated that less than 5% of Ireland's population has been infected.

An estimate, based on a mathematical model, could be 50%, again we don't know without mass-Immunological testing...

MickeyLeari · 30-05-2020 1:38pm

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Oh uh, i am looking at Ryanair website now to book return tickets Dublin to Berlin for 100 euros roundtrip and see a 4 star city centre 9/10 rated hotel for 3 nights with breakfast and free cancellation 268 euros.

What do i do?

These low prices are hypnotising

Book it. I have booked trips also. Essential travel for my mental health.

Professor Moriarty · 30-05-2020 1:38pm

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Oh uh, i am looking at Ryanair website now to book return tickets Dublin to Berlin for 100 euros roundtrip and see a 4 star city centre 9/10 rated hotel for 3 nights with breakfast and free cancellation 268 euros.

What do i do?

These low prices are hypnotising

If you think you'll be safe and you aren't infectious, you should go.

nickkinneg · 30-05-2020 1:38pm

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Oh uh, i am looking at Ryanair website now to book return tickets Dublin to Berlin for 100 euros roundtrip and see a 4 star city centre 9/10 rated hotel for 3 nights with breakfast and free cancellation 268 euros.

What do i do?

These low prices are hypnotising

Wouldn't risk it - posted earlier where it was reported about a flight to lanzorote where passenger tested positive in the air - the whole 140 passengers are now in quarantine and he is facing prosecution.

is_that_so · 30-05-2020 1:39pm

faceman wrote: »

Can anyone explain what the goals are here? We were told flatten the curve. Then r value less than 1 (currently 0.4). So what are our targets/goals/objectives?

Currently to finish Phase 1 while keeping an eye on how other countries are getting on. The full roadmap document talks about flexibility about the easing of measures.

Tenzor07 · 30-05-2020 1:39pm

is_that_so wrote: »

They work in the sense that most people will comply with them so you do have a form of control of movement.

Of course, from surveys it seems that the majority of people are in compliance, how that figure changes in the next 2 to 3 months will be interesting...

Tenzor07 · 30-05-2020 1:40pm

nickkinneg wrote: »

Wouldn't risk it - posted earlier where it was reported about a flight to lanzorote where passenger tested positive in the air - the whole 140 passengers are now in quarantine and he is facing prosecution.

Did the cabin crew perform a Covid test during the flight or before this passenger got on board?

is_that_so · 30-05-2020 1:41pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

An estimate, based on a mathematical model, could be 50%, again we don't know without mass-Immunological testing...

We will be doing sampling of 5000 initially. Range in other countries is from about 5% to 12%.

KrustyUCC · 30-05-2020 1:41pm

is_that_so wrote: »

They work in the sense that most people will comply with them so you do have a form of control of movement.

We can look forward to 20km for the next six weeks after the 8th

Full travel on 20th July

Meanwhile in the North, UK, Italy and many more countries you can go as far as you like

You would think our experience is far worse than any other with the glacial pace of easing restrictions

is_that_so · 30-05-2020 1:43pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Of course, from surveys it seems that the majority of people are in compliance, how that figure changes in the next 2 to 3 months will be interesting...

Well I think we are out to 20km from June 8. I'm also inclined to think that easing will ultimately move faster than the roadmap plan.

Stheno · 30-05-2020 1:43pm

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I cannot post a link but there is a story in the Cork Examiner on what Holohan said at the presser yesterday.

- in respect to easing the lockdown he said we are different than other countries in Europe in terms of our peak - is this the case particularly if we exclude nursing home deaths? (the blame lies with Tony and Simon on that one).
- he does not foresee air travel in the short term and people should not make plans (who TF made this guy the Government).

The Government from next week needs to stop these press conferences and make them politician led. Michael O’Leary and Michael Smurfit are right - this man is dangerous.

Article in the the Irish Times (I think) this morning showed Dublin peaked April 10th and the rest of the country a week later on April 17th

Six weeks ago

nickkinneg · 30-05-2020 1:44pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Did the cabin crew perform a Covid test during the flight or before this passenger got on board?

"Reports say the passenger took a COVID-19 test before he travelled because he had been in contact with someone who had died from the virus and had attended the funeral.

However, he left before the result came in and it was only revealed he was positive when the aircraft was in mid-air"

Ginger n Lemon · 30-05-2020 1:44pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you think you'll be safe and you aren't infectious, you should go.

I have an infectious smile and careless attitude and want to live life to the fullest.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings