National Broadband Plan or Starlink

But for those who continue to think Starlink is going to truly disrupt the broken U.S. broadband market, here's a few quick numbers. Up to 42 million Americans lack access to any broadband whatsoever, be it wired or wireless. Another 83 million currently live under a broadband monopoly, usually Comcast. Tens of millions more live under a broadband duopoly, which usually consists of Comcast and some regional phone company that stopped caring about upgrading its DSL networks sometime around 2005 or so. This regional monopolization directly results in spotty, expensive, sometimes sluggish service.

In contrast, SpaceX and Musk say that the 500,000 users will probably get the service they've pre-ordered. But Musk noted last week that as the company begins to push into the several million connection territory, things will likely get tricky. Particularly in more dense areas where capacity constraints will continue to be a big problem, much like existing higher-orbit satellite offerings.

Wall Street analysts recently predicted that even with Starlink's projected max deployment of about 12,000 low-orbit satellites, it's still only going to serve somewhere between 300,000 to 800,000 households, or less than 1% of the US market. And while over time analysts estimated that it could scale to about 6 million subscribers, that's still a fairly small dent in a very large US broadband problem. And at $600 for the first month of service, it's still out of range for many for whom broadband affordability is the real impediment to reliable access.

It's also still not entirely clear what kind of network limitations we'll see on a fully-loaded commercial Starlink network in the post net neutrality era. The company initially won't want to impose too many draconian limits (like caps, overage fees, or heavy-handed throttling) in order to lure in new subscribers. But as the network gets congested and runs into the unnegotiable limitations of physics, it seems inevitable we'll see more and more restrictions of this type, once again making it clear that wireless and satellite offerings are still no substitute for future-proof technologies like fiber.

Again, if you can afford the $600 first month payment, can actually secure a pre-order, and have no other options, it's very likely that Starlink will be a godsend regardless of where on the planet you live. It will also probably be helpful for those interested in getting portable access when camping, driving around in an RV, or in the middle of the ocean. But even the normally hype-prone Musk is making it abundantly clear that those expecting a major U.S. broadband market disruption shouldn't hold their breath.

celtic_oz wrote: »

Anyone know if its at the Irish end the delay in Starlink being licensed to provide BB in Ireland ? Or are they already licensed ?

Starlink dishes are phased array antenna, so electronically steerable, i.e. it will lock onto sats within its 100 degree viewing angle. No manual pointing at the sat on install, basically plug and play and the dish points itself to the correct part of the sky for your specific location.

Very positive reports from most that have installed it so far, both speed and latency.

Lots of discussion on it over in the Reddit forum.

Got a mail today from Starlink that "The Starlink team is preparing your order for shipment." I thought I would be waiting a lot longer but it's only two weeks ago I paid the deposit. Hopefully I will have the kit within a fortnight.

my app shows the green dots, and when they clear its tuck on processing? any ideas?

ordered tonight, but app still stuck...

I get the same error. Just stays on processing

started to research it a month ago. found my google plus code on google maps then searched the address on starlink website every day. went to full order yesterday. was 99 deposit and mid to late 2021 prior to that.

ive a feeling every address query is showing up somewhere at starlink HQ so the 30 or so of my queries "may" have triggered the cell update.

on the other hand it seems that a lot of Irish and New Zealand cells went live yesterday

Got a mail from Starlink overnight that my order is being shipped. Not bad considering I only paid the €99 deposit three weeks ago. Delivery is estimated for next Monday. Sounds a bit too good to be true but I will wait and see.

Got my kit today today; it wasn't supposed to come until Monday. 223 Meg d'load and 30 meg upload. The only problem is the dish is in the middle of the lawn with the cable going across the driveway. I am getting a pipe adapter from the Starlink shop. Then I should be able to mount the dish on that and maybe clear those obstructions.

Anyone tell NBI?

270 average down

mighty job ! ordered tue, arrived thurs. installed that eve.

I think she's confusing the terminal cost with the monthly cost. They've already confirmed the terminal is a loss-maker for them, but they're hoping to get it down from $1300 (production cost) to 1/4 that amount in the next 12 months

https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-price-cuts

I haven't seen any indication they're dropping the monthly price. The only allusions they've made to pricing changes are around market fit. So in developing countries, it may be less than $99/month

It's good for some but has extensive limitations. Not sure what you would be telling NBP?

Hi guys this product which has alot of limitations but is a reasonable substitute for a small fraction of people in difficult locations is an alternative for this minority of people..versus a superior fibre connection.

Is that what we should tell them that they already know ?

I can't wait for the day I hang up my imagine boots. Im paying for a three back up wireless connection for the just in case moments.

If either of these options weren't working for me I'd probably go with starlink. But I'm fortunate that my local masts are not over prescribed. But I'm dying to get away from it and get a fibre connection I will celebrate with many beers on that day.

Do you mean by "orders of magnitude less bandwidth and more latency" that the Starlink speeds will decrease the more users it has? Musk says he is going to have 42000 satellites in use eventually. Will that not spread the load? I know 42000 over the whole world may not be much.