The Great Covid Divide

Padre_Pio wrote: »

That's hard to quantify since near every country went into some form of lockdown.
There's no control group to compare against.

No country in the world made the choice to remain open and accept the death toll. Even the UK backed down after a few months when a thousand people a day were dying in April last year.

So your statement is meaningless, unfortunately.

Many people in Ireladn are doing ok, even with lockdown. The vast majority are still working, either on full pay or subsidised wages. People saved twice as much last year than in 2019.
The way we work has also changed completely, with more companies shifting to online-only work.

Around 900,000 people are dependent on State supports, whether it's the EWSS, PUP, or unemployment benefits. That's over a third of the labour force. I know of lots of others who are not claiming any State supports because they've chosen to operate in the "grey economy" instead.

Some people have been forced out of work for over a year with no plan to resume. It's not acceptable to throw entire industries under the bus to pander to fascists, morons, and hypochondriacs.

The way some people work has changed completely. There are other industries where it is not possible to do everything online.

Also, in terms of professional relationship building and management, it is also much preferable to be able to meet people in person. This is something that isn't properly understood by average desk jockeys.

It has been very interesting reading the various points made so far. A startling figure to me is the 25% unemployment rate currently. That was the peak figure for The Great Depression! Now I know some of that figure will return to work when lockdown relaxes but there will be many more added to the figure when businesses wind up in the future as unfortunately some inevitably will. From recent media reports it appears the Government want to get rid of the PUP ASAP but keep the EWSS in place beyond June. This will probably become a political football as it did in September last year.

From my own experience a big issue will be how to wean businesses off the EWSS. A big attraction of the scheme, as well as the €203-350 subsidy, is the 0.5% ER PRSI. I don't think the Govt can flick a switch and go back to business as normal with the employer paying the full wage and 8.8% or 11.05% ER PRSI. It will have to be a graduated approach starting at maybe 4-5% going to 8.8% to 11.05% after certain intervals or something like that. I would also have a concern over businesses which were allowed to tax warehouse debt being able to repay the debt. Whenever they do open back up they will have to pay all their current taxes like VAT, PAYE, & IT/CT on top of chipping away at legacy debts. The hope is obviously is for a spending boom which will allow for higher turnover and thus an ability to pay back.

Employees returning to work could be a sticky wicket. This is especially the case in public facing roles because as mentioned before many workers will see remote working as major part of their working week. What if an employee even, if vaccinated, refuses to come back due to health/danger concerns? Now normally that would be a failure to fulfil their contract of employment and they could be terminated. However they might now argue that the employer cannot provide a safe working environment. (Even if vaccinated they can still contract and transmit Covid-19). I reckon there will be a plethora of cases to be heard in the courts in regard to this and other Covid disputes. Another might be where an employer insists an employee returns to the office. I understand that the burden will now be on the employer to prove the employee must return rather than remote work though I am open to correction.

Sorry to end on an unpleasant note but I can easily see lockdowns being a feature of life in Ireland for the next 3-5 years even when enough of the population is vaccinated. I predict we will go into some sort of lockdown each December to early February. This was normally the peak time in hospitals before the pandemic and now there is a precedent for shutting down parts of the economy to protect the health service which would never have been tolerated before. Unless medical science innovates (and I hope it does) to find a way to eliminate viruses they will continue to circulate and mutate in the population for decades as we have seen from the history of coronaviruses.

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

I don't know about that. This press release was from November 2019. 3 months before Covid hit. Worth a quick read.

https://www.inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13549

Nobody seemed to be listening.

That does highlight the deficiencies in the health service, which pre-dates covid.
What's the answer?
The budget has been increasing for years, without seeming to increase capacity!

And successive ministers for health haven't been able to shake things up.

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't mean any disrespect as you are entitled to your view, it's one that I find most bizarre.

At one point I wandered if this would be our lot every winter for a number of years but rationally I can't see it. Lockdown has created a multitude of issues and not just economic. To think that our Government would continue with them even when Covid is well under control? I can't see it.

Remember that the members of NPHET and of our Government aren't just policy making robots. They are people with lives. Apart from the damage yearly lockdowns would do to our country I can't imagine it being something any one of them would want.

you have lot to learn.