The Great Covid Divide

PintOfView

tommybrees wrote: »

We opened up thing's at times last year and it was fine.

When we opened up
a) it was in the Summer, when people didn't gather as much indoors, and ventilation was able to be better if they did (doors and windows open).
b) it was after we had achieved a low level of circulating virus

tommybrees wrote: »

There's plenty of places in the USA that didn't enforce lockdown and there doing fine.

Have you got a couple of examples of these places in the US?

If they didn't enforce lockdown, and did fine, then there is an explanation.
The virus over there didn't just decide to not jump from one person to the next!

faceman

Its sad that the divide is spoken about further. 500,000 unemployed and many of them you receive state support are expected to pay it back, even though they're not unemployed as such, but they're prevented from working. These people have to continue to pay rent and their mortgage. Mark me word, the moment the moratorium is lifted, the banks and landlords will make their move.

Unemployment accounts for 25% of the workforce, or 30% if remove public sector (who have job security anyway). That is an insane figure.

By next year, we will see that the covid preventative measures have done far more damage than Covid did.

Antares35

faceman wrote: »

Its sad that the divide is spoken about further. 500,000 unemployed and many of them you receive state support are expected to pay it back, even though they're not unemployed as such, but they're prevented from working. These people have to continue to pay rent and their mortgage. Mark me word, the moment the moratorium is lifted, the banks and landlords will make their move.

Unemployment accounts for 25% of the workforce, or 30% if remove public sector (who have job security anyway). That is an insane figure.

By next year, we will see that the covid preventative measures have done far more damage than Covid did.

They're not expected to pay it back, they're expected to pay tax on it as it is considered to be an income. In the same way that those who continued to work didn't receive their income tax free.

faceman

PintOfView wrote: »

When we opened up
a) it was in the Summer, when people didn't gather as much indoors, and ventilation was able to be better if they did (doors and windows open).
b) it was after we had achieved a low level of circulating virus



Have you got a couple of examples of these places in the US?

If they didn't enforce lockdown, and did fine, then there is an explanation.
The virus over there didn't just decide to not jump from one person to the next!

He probably is referring the places like Texas as below. Depends on what your definition of "doing fine" means

https://twitter.com/ConMurphyCarlow/status/1379084628699582467?s=20

faceman

faceman wrote: »

He probably is referring the places like Texas as below. Depends on what your definition of "doing fine" means

https://twitter.com/ConMurphyCarlow/status/1379084628699582467?s=20

Texas has a popultion of 30 odd million, so the numbers are similar to ours. And its hospitalisations that count now, not case numbers.

So, yes, those numbers, and the trajectory, would show that they are doing okay

PintOfView

Deleted User wrote: »

Texas has a popultion of 30 odd million, so the numbers are similar to ours. And its hospitalisations that count now, not case numbers.

So, yes, those numbers, and the trajectory, would show that they are doing okay

Not completely comparable due to the weather
Dallas temperature at 5am today 19c , projected to be 27c by mid afternoon.
So outdoor eating and drinking a lot more possible, and prevalent.

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

Texas has a popultion of 30 odd million, so the numbers are similar to ours. And its hospitalisations that count now, not case numbers.

So, yes, those numbers, and the trajectory, would show that they are doing okay

Adajusting for population
Texas population is about 6 times ours.

So dividing their numbers by 6:

Texas
482k cases
8166 deaths

Ireland
238k cases
4718 deaths.

So they're running twice as bad as us historically, with a similar enough population over the past year.
They peaked at 60 (adjusted) odd deaths per day before they started vaccinating in Jan, where Ireland peaked around 50 in Feb.

They have four times as many fully vaccinated right now, and still about 15-20 (adjusted) deaths per day, while us in lockdown are at single figures.

No comparison really.

Lads, that's 5 minutes with google and worldometers. This stuff isn't hard.

MrStuffins

faceman wrote: »

By next year, we will see that the covid preventative measures have done far more damage than Covid did.

But the real question is, have preventative measures done more damage than Covid WOULD HAVE done?

Padre_Pio

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Adajusting for population
Texas population is about 6 times ours.

So dividing their numbers by 6:

Texas
482k cases
8166 deaths

Ireland
238k cases
4718 deaths.

So they're running twice as bad as us historically, with a similar enough population over the past year.
They peaked at 60 (adjusted) odd deaths per day before they started vaccinating in Jan, where Ireland peaked around 50 in Feb.

They have four times as many fully vaccinated right now, and still about 15-20 (adjusted) deaths per day, while us in lockdown are at single figures.

No comparison really.

Lads, that's 5 minutes with google and worldometers. This stuff isn't hard.

Why are you quoting numbers for the overall pandemic? Historical numbers are irrelevant as to where we stand today. Relevant only for the history books and the debrief when this is over

Look at the UK. They have one of the worst death tolls but in 2021 they are showing the way.

Honestly, would rather be in Texas or the UK. Heading to the USA for a family wedding in July, so might stay a while

faceman

MrStuffins wrote: »

But the real question is, have preventative measures done more damage than Covid WOULD HAVE done?

Well, I'm not used to supposin'. I'm just a workin' man. My boss does all the supposin'-- but I'll try one. Supposin' you talk us all out of this and, uh, the kid really did knife his father? covid preventative measures have done more damage?

*dries hands and walks out of bathroom*

HBC08

tara2k wrote: »

Good point. We were talking about this in work last week. People were saying that they have grown out of the habit of going to the pub, spending €3 for a cup of coffee every day, going out for a meal at the weekend etc now, and they are not going to start doing it again once country opens back up. Think they've also realised how much money they were wasting on the above. The lockdown has gone on for so long now that people have changed their approach to life.

Id be confident that a large majority of people (myself included) have not grown out of the habit of going to the pub when the chance presents itself.

MrStuffins

faceman wrote: »

Well, I'm not used to supposin'. I'm just a workin' man. My boss does all the supposin'-- but I'll try one. Supposin' you talk us all out of this and, uh, the kid really did knife his father? covid preventative measures have done more damage?

*dries hands and walks out of bathroom*

Exactly.

We could also say that preventative measures have saved us from the far worse damage that unchecked Covid would have done.

faceman

MrStuffins wrote: »

Exactly.

We could also say that preventative measures have saved us from the far worse damage that unchecked Covid would have done.

We don’t know that. We do know that none of the modelling for predicting covid has been correct, particular Ireland.

We can’t argue in auxiliary terms though. But we can look at facts and evidence.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/risk-of-cancer-epidemic-can-t-be-underestimated-researcher-1.4512249

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/cancer-services-will-not-fully-resume-until-year-end-under-hse-s-pandemic-plan-1.4517265

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/ireland-facing-cancer-crisis-2021-23566598

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/31/number-of-teenagers-seeking-psychiatric-help-soars-amid-pandemic

https://jrnl.ie/5401109

MrStuffins

faceman wrote: »

We can’t argue in auxiliary terms though.

Agreed.

And I agree we can look at facts and evidence, but to do so when the alternative is a hypothetical makes it kind of pointless when your argument is based on that hypothesis.

Ficheall

tommybrees wrote: »

If there was such a dangerous virus out there we wouldn't need Gardai to be enforcing these restrictions and fining people, because people would see for themselves how serious it can be and wouldn't need to be told 24/7.

Exactly. That's why we don't need speed limits on the roads etc....

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

Why are you quoting numbers for the overall pandemic? Historical numbers are irrelevant as to where we stand today. Relevant only for the history books and the debrief when this is over

Look at the UK. They have one of the worst death tolls but in 2021 they are showing the way.

Historical numbers are still very relevant.
Texas has twice as many cases and deaths. Their herd immunity is miles better than ours. Then they have four times as many fully vaccinated as we do.
Same with the UK. Far more cases per population and far more deaths = more herd immunity, plus four or five times more vaccinations (not fully vaccinated though)

We're not comparable, no matter how much you want it to be true.

The only reason people are calling for halting the lockdown is that the numbers are good.
There was none of this back in Feb when cases were spiking.

faceman

MrStuffins wrote: »

Agreed.

And I agree we can look at facts and evidence, but to do so when the alternative is a hypothetical makes it kind of pointless when your argument is based on that hypothesis.

No it’s not. That’s a bizarre statement to make

MrStuffins

faceman wrote: »

No it’s not. That’s a bizarre statement to make

Saying the preventative measures will have done more damage that Covid did, without taking into consideration the damage done had these measures not been in place, is a bizarre statement.

I got vaccinated for Hep A once and the vaccination did more damage than the Hep A did.

Why? Because I had a sore arm for a day, while Hep A did no damage as I didn't contract it!

timmyntc

Ficheall wrote: »

Exactly. That's why we don't need speed limits on the roads etc....

And yet even when no cameras or gardai are around, the majority do not speed.

MrStuffins

timmyntc wrote: »

And yet even when no cameras or gardai are around, the majority do not speed.

timmyntc

MrStuffins wrote: »

And your point is?
Its illegal to murder in this country also, yet without gardai continuously watching us, most of us can obey that law just fine.

Instead of having the gardai fining people for travelling 5.1km, the majority should be trusted to behave sensibly.

MrStuffins

timmyntc wrote: »

And your point is?
Its illegal to murder in this country also, yet without gardai continuously watching us, most of us can obey that law just fine.

Instead of having the gardai fining people for travelling 5.1km, the majority should be trusted to behave sensibly.

And what about the others?

timmyntc

MrStuffins wrote: »

And what about the others?

What about them?

Do you think its fair that the majority of the population get punished in a vain attempt to stop a small minority from acting out? The gardai enforcement and rules that are in place right now arent stopping them either you know.

MrStuffins

timmyntc wrote: »

What about them?

How do we deal with them?

Are you suggesting that rules and law is self-evident, so we don't need Gardai or courts because people will just know not to commit crime?

Have you seen Mad Max?

Padre_Pio

timmyntc wrote: »

And your point is?
Its illegal to murder in this country also, yet without gardai continuously watching us, most of us can obey that law just fine.

Instead of having the gardai fining people for travelling 5.1km, the majority should be trusted to behave sensibly.

There is a chasm of a difference between people choosing to murder, and people choosing to continue their life in the same manner as early 2020.

Over 10,000 COVID fines have gone out in the last few months. So that's 10,000 people who completely disregarded government rules. Not to mention the thousands others who merely got a warning.

Haven't seen 10,000 murders at any time.

timmyntc

MrStuffins wrote: »

How do we deal with them?

Are you suggesting that rules and law is self-evident, so we don't need Gardai or courts because people will just know not to commit crime?

Have you seen Mad Max?

yes thats exactly what I'm suggesting. But I was thinking more along the lines of Escape From New York than Mad Max.

faceman

MrStuffins wrote: »

Saying the preventative measures will have done more damage that Covid did, without taking into consideration the damage done had these measures not been in place, is a bizarre statement.

I got vaccinated for Hep A once and the vaccination did more damage than the Hep A did.

Why? Because I had a sore arm for a day, while Hep A did no damage as I didn't contract it!

That makes no sense. You’re talking nonsense

Nermal

Padre_Pio wrote: »

So they're running twice as bad as us historically, with a similar enough population over the past year.

No comparison really.

If your sole yardstick for success is minimising deaths, why ever open up at all?

Why not live with current restrictions forever? It's horrendously expensive and totalitarian, but it is minimising deaths, isn't it?

Of course, that would be ridiculous. Other things matter as much as avoiding death.

The citizens of Texas clearly value individual freedom highly. As you say - no comparison to us.

MrStuffins

timmyntc wrote: »

yes thats exactly what I'm suggesting. But I was thinking more along the lines of Escape From New York than Mad Max.

Then it comforts me to get a deeper insight into the mind and other thoughts of someone who thinks Covid doesn't exist.

MrStuffins

faceman wrote: »

That makes no sense.

Exactly!