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31-08-2019, 01:21   #31
igCorcaigh
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What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.
The slow movement of it is concerning. It won't stall, but the amount of rain it could put down.
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31-08-2019, 01:24   #32
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The slow movement of it is concerning. It won't stall, but the amount of rain it could put down.
Yeah It seems the models are in agreement that it's not going into the gulf of mexico now and will make landfall in florida and go up the state.
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31-08-2019, 01:30   #33
sdanseo
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Cat 4.

Quote:
000
WTNT65 KNHC 310027
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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31-08-2019, 01:37   #34
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I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.

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31-08-2019, 01:37   #35
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Okay it's a Cat4 now and it's 8:35pm florida time on a friday and the hurricane isn't meant to make landfall until monday night florida time. My question to the great and good on this forum, what will stop this from being a Cat 5 at landfall ?
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31-08-2019, 01:42   #36
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In Orlando on a family holiday until Thursday. Bricking it is putting it mildly. Contacted Tour America and they basically told us either wait it out or pay up to Aer Lingus to change flights. Orlando International Airport is closed from 2am Monday morning now
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31-08-2019, 01:43   #37
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Mandatory evacuations now in some coastal counties of Florida. Not even hurricane warnings yet.
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31-08-2019, 01:43   #38
sdanseo
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Okay it's a Cat4 now and it's 8:35pm florida time on a friday and the hurricane isn't meant to make landfall until monday night florida time. My question to the great and good on this forum, what will stop this from being a Cat 5 at landfall ?
Low ocean temperatures and vertical windshear are the two things that will kill a tropical cyclone dead the fastest.

The former means no fuel, and the latter quite literally pulls it apart.

At the moment, ocean temperatures are high, and there is little windshear.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-...=0&PERIOD=
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31-08-2019, 01:44   #39
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I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.

The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.

Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.
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31-08-2019, 01:49   #40
Gaoth Laidir
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The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.

Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.
Just offshore would be bad, but if the current trend continues it could be well offshore. This is still all to play for, with even a southerly dive not out of the question either.
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31-08-2019, 01:49   #41
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In Orlando on a family holiday until Thursday. Bricking it is putting it mildly. Contacted Tour America and they basically told us either wait it out or pay up to Aer Lingus to change flights. Orlando International Airport is closed from 2am Monday morning now
It's all about the preparation.

Florida is exceptionally well prepared for Hurricanes. Follow the local authorities' advice.

Compare Katrina, which hit Louisiana and caused untold devastation, to Michael last year which had a comparatively small human effect (everything being relative.. it still killed 31 people).
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31-08-2019, 01:55   #42
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Just offshore would be bad, but if the current trend continues it could be well offshore. This is still all to play for, with even a southerly dive not out of the question either.
Agree. Can't call anything yet.

I also disagree somewhat with the upgrade to CAT 4 now. They state winds are "near" 130 mph. They either are or they aren't over 130 mph.

We have seen liberties like this being taken before and I don't agree with it. That said, most recent recon does show 131 mph SL (but that is not what the NHC update was based on).

Still they should be accurate but that's probably nit picking these days.
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31-08-2019, 02:17   #43
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Latest pass



Definitely in CAT 4 territory now and continuing to strengthen.
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31-08-2019, 02:17   #44
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It's the rain will be the issue though, not the winds, or the landfall.
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31-08-2019, 02:50   #45
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In South beach Miami - 3 streets back from the Atlantic sea front. Hard to believe anything could be in the offing bar what we are hearing on the telly.

Due to fly out Sunday night 10pm, ****ting it a little, my hotel doesnt seem terribly well prepared !

Latest projections suggest it might be going about 100 miles north of us, heres hoping we are ling gone by the time this is near us !
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