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30-08-2019, 23:58   #16
Kermit.de.frog
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Recon reaching north western eyewall section - high level CAT 3 or CAT 4? Find out in a few minutes.
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31-08-2019, 00:07   #17
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RECON
Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface
Extrapolated pressure of 946mb

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31-08-2019, 00:12   #18
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That is rapid intensification - on the edge of CAT 4 now.
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31-08-2019, 00:15   #19
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It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.
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31-08-2019, 00:18   #20
pad199207
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post


It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.
Will be well into Cat 4 next advisory I’d say. That pressure drop is phenomenal. Should looks stunning on satellite tomorrow.
Small storm though.
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31-08-2019, 00:20   #21
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It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

This looks a serious one.
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31-08-2019, 00:23   #22
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It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

This looks a serious one.
Yeah should be a monster as it nears Florida.
Eye wall replacement cycle soon I’d say.
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31-08-2019, 00:25   #23
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Levi Cowan reporting 'Recon found an estimated pressure of 946mb just now, pending a dropsonde to get a more accurate reading. That's a rapid drop from 970mb about 6 hours ago.'

' The dropsonde in #Dorian's eye measured a pressure of 951mb with a 13 kt wind, so the accurate pressure is probably ~950mb.'
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31-08-2019, 00:27   #24
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Mission 20 underway - decent chance of a CAT 4 confirmation in the next couple of hours.

Amazing pressure drop. That's almost 25mbs lower over 6 hours.

So yeah, this will be worth watching.

EDIT: just seen that Meteorite - still fairly dramatic.
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31-08-2019, 00:37   #25
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Going to be a stunning storm to follow
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31-08-2019, 00:38   #26
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Mission 21's Dropsonde 3 in the NE eyewall found 116-knot surface winds a few minutes ago

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31-08-2019, 01:01   #27
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Dropsonde 3 was in the northwestern eye wall? Recon (21) going through northeast eye wall now.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 31-08-2019 at 01:04.
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31-08-2019, 01:08   #28
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Spare a thought for the people caught in its path. Always conflicts me that we find these events - which without wanting to provoke a debate unsuitable for the thread, are becoming more common - so fascinating and enjoyable while at the same time, there are genuine threats to peoples lives and livelihoods.

In any event, if we have gone from the below to 129 (133) mph in just 2 hours - this is rapid intensifictation for sure and Cat 5 would appear to be very much within the bounds of possibility toward landfall. Even hitting Florida at Cat 4 will be no joke.

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INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
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Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface
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116-knot surface winds
[133mph]


For those interested in historic storms, track and intensity are very similar to Andrew

Last edited by sdanseo; 31-08-2019 at 01:14.
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31-08-2019, 01:15   #29
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CAT 4 if not suspect reading.

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31-08-2019, 01:18   #30
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What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.
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