Amber Snow Alert

18-02-2005 12:06pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Here the corresponding temp chart
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.gif

Mother of Fuck I know its a little out of range for not to be subject to changes but look at the source of that air and it's bullseye target with that wind direction... :eek: Very very very cold!

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 12:06pm

A chart to illustrate possible snow from Saturday night
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis06.18022005/rart_05022000_1806.gif?897e20a1f00a3288fbf1d01306db6121

kleefarr · 18-02-2005 12:09pm

Weathercheck wrote:

We are good to go

Good to go? What? Skiing? :eek: :rolleyes:

full forward · 18-02-2005 12:30pm

UK met office ADVANCE WARNINGS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

These warnings are issued when severe weather is expected to cause widespread disruption to traffic etc. over the next few days.

Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/warnings.html

FOR GOD SAKE THINK OF THE CHILDREN!

18-02-2005 1:29pm

That gives a sort of an idea and a reserved idea at that for what is going to happen in the UK.

It has no relevance to us though.
Take wales for instance, it shows a low chance of disruption because with the NE wind most of its precipitation would have to come originally from the North sea and it would be weakish by then if there at all.

Ireland is mostly ignored and obviously thats because its not covered by their warnings.
Thus any factor for here is not considered.
And certainly the risk of snow fall thanks to the Irish sea is highish enough.

It's similar to "lake effect" snow on the U.S canada border.

By the way I notice met Éireanns latest update indicates snow showers especially near the East coast-that sounds more like it.

Mother nature is tweaking this evrey hour on the hour and she aint paying any attention to computer models-so what we get and whats predicted aint necessarally going to be the same.
If you are in the East though, and like snow , you will be unlucky if you dont see enough to crunch under your feet in the coming week as it is very likely there

The chances deminish as you head further west.

Danno · 18-02-2005 1:58pm

Laois lies between 45 and 75 miles of the east coast, are we covered?

Scubadevils · 18-02-2005 2:08pm

Earthman wrote:

It's similar to "lake effect" snow on the U.S canada border.

Heard this mentioned a few times, I assume its heavy snow? Do you think we are talking blizzard type conditions or is it too soon to know that?

I like the snow crunching under the feet bit, hope it happens.

Really need to do some work, this week has been a write off!

18-02-2005 2:52pm

Felixdhc wrote:

Heard this mentioned a few times, I assume its heavy snow? Do you think we are talking blizzard type conditions or is it too soon to know that?

I like the snow crunching under the feet bit, hope it happens.

Really need to do some work, this week has been a write off!

Lake effect snow is a term used to describe showers that build up over the great lakes on the U.S canada Border when intensely cold air moves down over them.
The same will happen over the Irish sea as this siberian air travels over, it creates instability and showers which,I'm fairly confident at this stage should be snow certainly by mon-tues anyway.
And yes if they are as intense as the showers that brought the october 2003 24 hr long thunderstorm activity to Dublin and the East coast you could be looking at a "white out" during them.

Danno wrote:

Laois lies between 45 and 75 miles of the east coast, are we covered?

Intensity should decrease the further inland they go but again it depends on a lot of factors.
In scenarios like this I've seen showers go well inland ie giving cover to much of Leinster but with the heaviest falls if cold enough right on the coast and definitely on higher ground.

Danno · 18-02-2005 2:58pm

The trouble for me is the Wicklows, they would take alot of the ummph out of them, if they get further, then the Castlecomer pleatau will take another bit out of them.

Hmmm, I dunno, if there is a NE component, then they would follow the N7/N8 to me!

billy the squid · 18-02-2005 3:21pm

Hmmm, I dunno, if there is a NE component, then they would follow the N7/N8 to me!

and by the looks of things it would seem that it will be moving faster than the traffic on the N7

I think that it will be a cold but wet week for us here in Limerick. If we do get clear spells there is going to be like glass on the roads.

18-02-2005 3:39pm

Drat this lack of weathercheck is making me work... (on looking at the latest models instead of doing the work I'm supposed to be doing here!)

Anyways the latest GFS stuff continues with an even colder theme right through next week and boy the source of the air is truly icy!

Danno · 18-02-2005 3:51pm

He He, he is VERY quiet today, considering that it is only 36hrs to go!!!

Scubadevils · 18-02-2005 3:57pm

Probably out stocking up on supplies

TonyB · 18-02-2005 4:04pm

I'm a noobee to this forum, having discovered it by accident yesterday. What's all the excitement I'm reading about snow? Is this typical of the forum, or are we looking at something truly special (as in once in a decade event)?

Danno · 18-02-2005 4:04pm

I can imagine it!

Tesco Value Range:

* De Icer
* Tinned Beans
* Firelighters
* Value Snow Spade

18-02-2005 4:12pm

TonyB wrote:

I'm a noobee to this forum, having discovered it by accident yesterday. What's all the excitement I'm reading about snow? Is this typical of the forum, or are we looking at something truly special (as in once in a decade event)?

In this case yes we are looking at a rare event.
If you are in the East of the country ,its fairly certain at some point from sunday night onwards , you will feel snow crunching under your feet.

As regards the forum, we discuss all sorts of mad weather here but are usually quiet when its uneventfull.

Weathercheck loves his snow so, in wintertime if theres a whiff of it you will find him talking about it.
Soem threads here so far have been on snow and theres been some or they've been on the prospect of snow that didnt really happen.

This *is* going to happen though, for how long is unsure, possibly most of next week.

Danno · 18-02-2005 4:14pm

TonyB wrote:

I'm a noobee to this forum, having discovered it by accident yesterday. What's all the excitement I'm reading about snow? Is this typical of the forum, or are we looking at something truly special (as in once in a decade event)?

According to Weathercheck it is a once in a decade event,

However I am of the opinion that it will be cold, crisp and largly dry for most of Ireland, just a few flurrys here and there.

Although, if the wind gets up, it could be like the Christmas 1995, Early Jan 1996 event where we had true Ice Days, (24-hour period with 0c or below)

Danno · 18-02-2005 4:15pm

Any fax charts to look at today then?

jd · 18-02-2005 4:30pm

Danno wrote:

He He, he is VERY quiet today, considering that it is only 36hrs to go!!!

His zx spectrum is probably running slow while it pumps out his latest model, and he's busy tweaking it..

18-02-2005 4:53pm

LoL jd...

I think he's too young to know what a zx spectrum was tho...

Split the off topic stuff and put it into the snowstalgia thread.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 4:59pm

Saturday night Snowfall?

Yes that's what eyes are now looking towards as
a trough runs down the east coast tomorrow
night. 850hpa temperatures are certainly low
enough but other guidances ie the 500hpa DAM
would lead me to believe that only eastern areas
will be affected by snow fall. It will be touch and go
and probably wet but with 850hpa temperatures down
to -8c by that time i would give the green light for
snow as early as tomorrow night in the east!!
Yes tomorrow night!

A few cm's are possible and snow showers will continue
to affect the east throughout Sunday. The trough that
moves south is kind off the boundary of really col
air that will move southwest on Saturday

So dont be surprised to see some snow tomorrow night
a few cm's are likely in eastern counties and possibly
elsewhere

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 5:03pm

And just to add there could be a decent dumping (10cms or so)
in the east later on Sunday. That could be a real snow event
for us easterners

Maxima on Sunday at about 3c countrywide

with snow showers in the east before the band spreads
from the north

18-02-2005 5:07pm

Just to let ye know I will be locking this thread at some stage tomorrow as it is getting quite long and opening amber Snow alert part 2.
This is to keep the whole thing easy to follow for our visitors

Danno · 18-02-2005 5:08pm

Speak of the devil...!!!

How far will this trough have precip in it as it moves SWwards?

I.e. 20 miles, 50 + + ???

Ray777 · 18-02-2005 5:09pm

I'd love to be wrong, but I still think we're going to be disappointed. I'm not basing this on any scientific facts, but on the proven theory that when we expect a significant snowfall (particularly here in the east of the country), we tend not to get it...

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 5:14pm

4 word,s

East, Snow, Monday morning

:eek: :eek:

Could be a dumping in eastern areas :eek:

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 5:19pm

The east will do the best this time, chin up and even
if the MET dont go for snow the east coast WILL
see snow tomorrow night and through Sunday

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 5:22pm

The 12z is even better than other runs much better

Ray777 · 18-02-2005 5:24pm

4 more words...

and pigs might fly

Sorry for being so cynical. Hopefully, people will be slagging me on monday morning for being completely wrong. It's just that I've been waiting for a decent accumulation of snow since Jan 1987 and have been disappointed every year.

A question: When was the last time we expected this volume of snowfall? And did we get it?

18-02-2005 5:40pm

Ray777 wrote:

A question: When was the last time we expected this volume of snowfall? And did we get it?

circa 1991 was the last time we had charts similar to these.
And yes we did.
"we" being meterological people back then.
There was an event that closed Dublin airport around the time of the foot and mouth crisis just a few years ago.

Anything weathercheck has talked about since he joined this forum wouldnt hold a penny candle to the synoptics of next week.I do think he's being overconfident on the snow risk for tomorrow night and sunday.
It's border line, it may or may not happen in my view due to local factors.
I've no doubt whatsoever about next week though.

Though as always with showers its going to be a hit and miss affair.

It's quite understandable to be skeptical given the mild pattern of the last decade but then thats our climate-it is influence by the more active milder atlantic zone.
Consequently Significant Wintery weather is a less than one in ten event-ergo people rightly have the attitude,I'll believe it when I see it.
I'm *nearly* certain most in the East will see some snow from this though and some will see a lot, especially on high ground.
Settling snow is not going to be confined to the high ground though.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 5:51pm

OMG :eek: :eek: :eek:

The runs get better and even better

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

from

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn481.gif

Things are rolling and later in the run things line up to be historic

Possibly entering a once in a decade event if these models come off

18-02-2005 6:13pm

Looking very mad now alright-snow snow snow...
Those are nearly a week out though and subject to a lot of change probably.
Theres sunday monday and Tuesday to get through first.

The appearance of a low in the south west approaches though is interesting in a 1982 type of way...

People reading this must think we're daft temps topped out around 10c here today

Ray777 · 18-02-2005 6:34pm

All this talk of '1982' reminds me of English football commentators, before every World Cup, saying "I think this is going to be just like 1966 all over again". And then England get knocked out in the second round.

I'm still trying not to get excited, but it's getting difficult...

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 6:38pm

I got a crazy 13c reckon it was an error tho

Well i think lots of people are watching i already ahve

850 visits to my site today :eek:

Topping 300 of the previous total
and there's time for it to breach 1000

And i have only posted here today :eek:

The charts are just dreams i really am trying hard
to get this to sink in but it just aint

A few teasing charts

Saturday night
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis12.18022005/rart_05022000_1812.gif?405312428fd81de040c7db72fc20412c

Sunday's 4 charts
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis12.18022005/rart_05022006_1812.gif?ae952b1795c61a9eb9b2ec8e742bfe54
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis12.18022005/rart_05022012_1812.gif?9ef5792d2cb1677efbfceb92892e37be
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis12.18022005/rart_05022018_1812.gif?c79156779664a722760f67aa0bad9a8d
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis12.18022005/rart_05022100_1812.gif?6266ac5b21cdefb467d3eed71996d18c

What do you think earthman will we go for Monday's :rolleyes: ye i think so

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis12.18022005/rart_05022106_1812.gif?65590c100e22146ed291de580878d846
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis12.18022005/rart_05022112_1812.gif?bfe2d9dec9d3e62fca911ad16a085d83

Thats Saturday through Monday

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 6:47pm

Look at this chart :eek: :eek:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

At 96 hrs :eek:

Im going to have a breakdown over the next few days
the chart above is not far off a dream chart.

Honestly the above would see heavy snow showers being
driven onto eastern coasts. I would be surprised if
Eastern counties saw over 15cm's of snow by next
Tuesday :eek:

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 7:14pm

And the GFS operational run which went for only a 6 day
cold spell a massive mild outlier with 8/10 runs going
for a 12 day + cold spell :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

:eek: Lord this might never end :eek:

Imagine it's March 1st and Blizzards outside the window

Scubadevils · 18-02-2005 7:16pm

TV3 weather mentioned chance of snow showers and getting milder by Wednesday.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 7:27pm

TV3 = :eek: :eek:

TV3 Forecasts are awful purely awful... milder by Wednesday??

Absolutely pathetic

Really looking at the outputs tonight
that would have to be the poorest forecast i would
have ever seen

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 7:29pm

This http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif mild :eek:

This http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif mild

:eek: :eek: :eek:

If maxima of 2-3c are mild then i'll be damned

Scubadevils · 18-02-2005 7:31pm

Wonder where they get their info from. See what RTE have to say now shortly.

Mothman · 18-02-2005 7:44pm

I don't see precipitation levels being high, that's why I'm not being sucked into this ramping.
Though I'm dying to actually melt snow at the 0900 rainfall reading. Been recording precipitation since 1999 and not once have I had to do this!!

snow?....... yes, lots of it?....... no.

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 7:54pm

yes mothman that will indeed be a problem probably
only a few cm's from the showers of the east coast
every day around 3-5mm a day i reckon

But later on Monday possibly 5-10mm

The precipitation sample above is for Dublin

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 7:57pm

That was yet another insightful forecast from John Eagleton :rolleyes:
Really is poor what we get for the main forecast at 6pm :rolleyes:

Again i echo yesterday's sentiments eastern counties
will see snow from Saturday night accumlations
of upto 3-5cm's through Sunday and possible upto 10cm's
through Monday

Villain · 18-02-2005 7:57pm

TV3 actually had changed their forecast quite a bit, forecasting snow for sunday monday and tuesday!

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 8:01pm

I suppose it couldnt of been much worse than what
was thrown up there by the Meto a minute ago!

Felix TV3 take their weather off an English Company i think

Supercell · 18-02-2005 8:53pm

God ..its on a knife edge this weekend in Dublin ....

http://64.246.48.81/pics/brack0a.gif
http://64.246.48.81/pics/brack1.gif
http://64.246.48.81/pics/brack1a.gif
http://64.246.48.81/pics/brack2.gif

Am tempted to go nutz and start mutter snow snow under my breath .... http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png aint helping at all!!

Longfield...deep breaths .....Sunday into Monday either going to be lots of rain /sleet ..or..lots of sn** ...trying hard to be calm cool and collected...its soooo close ..please please this once dont be rain !! (it still aint no 80's snap ..but its so long since something like that will take a 2001 again !!

Ray777 · 18-02-2005 8:55pm

From previous experience, I'd still be inclined to go with the Eagle :cool:

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2005 9:19pm

But all Eagle done was forecast tomorrow :eek: :rolleyes:

Darwin · 18-02-2005 9:23pm

I think he did mention the possibility of a few wintry showers on Monday, but I suspect Met Eireann are being fairly coy about it.

18-02-2005 10:35pm

Darwin wrote:

I think he did mention the possibility of a few wintry showers on Monday, but I suspect Met Eireann are being fairly coy about it.

coy is a bit of an understatement.
He did say tonight that there would be little or no precipitation on sunday.
And the summary map for monday showed a max of 8c...

Amber Snow Alert

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