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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #1142
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-10/new-york-san-francisco-u-s-cities-will-struggle-after-covid-19

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/manhattan-apartment-rents-plunge-10-in-pandemic-fueled-exodus

    In the US there is talk of a big falter in the rental market which we should pay attention to closely. Rents are plunging and vacancies/availabilities are at record highs. Just a couple of articles to whet the appetite to go off exploring the web for more resources on the state of the US rental market. Why this is relevant to Ireland is that economically we are more aligned with the US than the rest of Europe so it is good to see what happens over there as it may be an indication of the direction of travel here.


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    #1143
    Jambonjunior
    Registered Users Posts: 260 ✭✭Jambonjunior


    How are people finding the market currently?


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    #1144
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Anecdotal based on my own regular Daft search (2 beds in Dublin to rent under 2300 per month). Over 1000 properties available, with many being under 2k for the 2 beds and many are very nice. I am estimating maybe 10-20% rent price drops for 2 bedroom places on Dublin compared to 5 months ago.


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    #1145
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,062 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Anecdotal based on my own regular Daft search (2 beds in Dublin to rent under 2300 per month). Over 1000 properties available, with many being under 2k for the 2 beds and many are very nice. I am estimating maybe 10-20% rent price drops for 2 bedroom places on Dublin compared to 5 months ago.

    In your opinion, why haven’t they dropped 10-20% already if there are that many available?


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    #1146
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Dav010 wrote: »
    In your opinion, why haven’t they dropped 10-20% already if there are that many available?

    Sorry, that's the price drop I have seen already. You would see barely any 2 bedroom places under 2k, now there are plenty and they are in desirable areas as well as being nice properties. I said it earlier in the thread but I'd say 30% drops in rents is what we'll see before it levels off early next year.


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    #1147
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Sorry, that's the price drop I have seen already. You would see barely any 2 bedroom places under 2k, now there are plenty and they are in desirable areas as well as being nice properties. I said it earlier in the thread but I'd say 30% drops in rents is what we'll see before it levels off early next year.
    I know one landlord with six properties on a self contained site
    2 tenants took rent breaks for April and May
    Both left early June without paying arrears.
    He put both on the market and neither have moved
    He gave one to his son and the other a 2 bed one bath with a fairly big courtyard is still on the market at 1850
    Normally his properties go fairly quick.
    They are close to a Dart Station , numerous bus routes , a 20 min walk to coast and a 10 min walk to St Anne’s Park.
    By my reckoning he is down close to 20 k with decorating costs.
    He won’t drop the rents as he is on a RPZ and is afraid the other tenants will look for a rent decrease.


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    #1148
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Dav010 wrote: »
    In your opinion, why haven’t they dropped 10-20% already if there are that many available?
    IMO all are in a RPZ ( not that that bothers a lot of landlords ) so by reducing the rent the landlord is stuck with lower rents for years as the are limited by the yearly increase they can impose.
    Head in the sand stuff that rents will recover to pre Covid levels


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    #1149
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,931 ✭✭✭Blut2


    20% drop so far is about accurate:

    oMfVsfH.jpg

    1bed apartments have gone from 2,071 on Feb 1st to 1,664 on Aug 1st
    2bed apartments have gone from 2,497 on Feb 1st to 2,072 on Aug 1st

    Quite substantial drops in such a short period of time. Especially considering we're only just beginning to face into the economic collapse so theres likely a lot further to fall.


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    #1150
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Blut2 wrote: »
    20% drop so far is about accurate:

    oMfVsfH.jpg

    1bed apartments have gone from 2,071 on Feb 1st to 1,664 on Aug 1st
    2bed apartments have gone from 2,497 on Feb 1st to 2,072 on Aug 1st

    Quite substantial drops in such a short period of time. Especially considering we're only just beginning to face into the economic collapse so theres likely a lot further to fall.

    Is there an element of the ads that were available for 1 and 2 beds at the start of the year were for high end properties in Capital dock and with covid and people leaving Dublin, more "everyday" properties have come on stream and thus skewing the average?


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    #1151
    rightmove
    Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭rightmove


    with drop in rents ..surely no need for rpz's???


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    #1152
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    rightmove wrote: »
    with drop in rents ..surely no need for rpz's???
    There will always be a need for RPZ a while there are unscrupulous landlords
    So we will always need RPZs


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    #1153
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    rightmove wrote: »
    with drop in rents ..surely no need for rpz's???

    Hopefully not as they only hurt small time landlords and not the big corporates. Considering big corporates are only a small portion of the market, we should be looking for measures to be introduced to get the small time landlords active.


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    #1154
    rightmove
    Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭rightmove


    brisan wrote: »
    There will always be a need for RPZ a while there are unscrupulous landlords
    So we will always need RPZs

    the rpz were brought in to deal with rent pressures not landlords being unscrupulous. Lots of decent LL's were affected with their rents being below market rate so your point is not valid.

    so I will go again

    with rents falling why the need for rpz's??


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    #1155
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    rightmove wrote: »
    the rpz were brought in to deal with rent pressures not landlords being unscrupulous. Lots of decent LL's were affected with their rents being below market rate so your point is not valid.

    so I will go again

    with rents falling why the need for rpz's??
    If the landlord was getting below market rate that was his fault for taking his eye off the ball
    If he was happy with below market rates why would he want market rates or above now.
    RPZ were brought in to give tenants some comfort on the rents and to stop landlords imposing major increases on tenants
    So my point is valid


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    #1156
    snowgal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭snowgal


    are you talking about Dublin only? I dont see rent falling around the country at all. If anything they seem to be very slightly higher in Meath/Kildare


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    #1157
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Blut2 wrote: »
    20% drop so far is about accurate:

    oMfVsfH.jpg

    1bed apartments have gone from 2,071 on Feb 1st to 1,664 on Aug 1st
    2bed apartments have gone from 2,497 on Feb 1st to 2,072 on Aug 1st

    Quite substantial drops in such a short period of time. Especially considering we're only just beginning to face into the economic collapse so theres likely a lot further to fall.

    Can you please share the link to this? Think i asked before but does it also include the number of units let? Has that increased which would indicate people moving or trading up etc?


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    #1158
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Can you please share the link to this? Think i asked before but does it also include the number of units let? Has that increased which would indicate people moving or trading up etc?

    It looks like it’s from a website called the property pin

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/
    You can select volume , average rent or median rent


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    #1159
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,585 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Sorry, that's the price drop I have seen already. You would see barely any 2 bedroom places under 2k, now there are plenty and they are in desirable areas as well as being nice properties. I said it earlier in the thread but I'd say 30% drops in rents is what we'll see before it levels off early next year.
    I'm looking at upgrading from 1-bed to 2-bed and am not even bothering reading any advert over €1800.


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    #1160
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,062 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    PommieBast wrote: »
    I'm looking at upgrading from 1-bed to 2-bed and am not even bothering reading any advert over €1800.

    How’s it working out?


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    #1161
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Dav010 wrote: »
    How’s it working out?

    There are plenty of 2 beds in the region of 1,800 - and several hundred (perhaps even over a thousand) in or around the 2,000 mark. Its entirely plausible to get a very reasonable 2 bed in a reasonable area for the sort of money being mentioned- I don't think the poster is being unrealistic with their expectations.


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    #1162
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,062 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    There are plenty of 2 beds in the region of 1,800 - and several hundred (perhaps even over a thousand) in or around the 2,000 mark. Its entirely plausible to get a very reasonable 2 bed in a reasonable area for the sort of money being mentioned- I don't think the poster is being unrealistic with their expectations.

    I appreciate that, but I would imagine that there would also be considerable interest in nice properties at that price.


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    #1163
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Those one bed apartments out of the city centre which aren't the luxury newer builds looking for 1800/1900+ are going to be pushed right down. Mad prices by any metric.


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    #1164
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I appreciate that, but I would imagine that there would also be considerable interest in nice properties at that price.

    True- I'm not sure demand is what it once was though.
    Location is going to be key- anything that is mispriced is going to be like tumbleweed- no-one is going to even bother anymore.
    Demand is not what it once was.


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    #1165
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,931 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Can you please share the link to this? Think i asked before but does it also include the number of units let? Has that increased which would indicate people moving or trading up etc?

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    You can also view the volume of units available too, yes:

    zKKHO7Z.jpg

    1,066 apartments were available Feb 1st, 2,123 on August 1st.

    Its a pretty incredible increase. Especially given the number of available units has hovered between 500-900 for all of the last 5 years - 1,066 wasn't even a low point, it was actually a high point to begin with.


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    #1166
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    brisan wrote: »
    It looks like it’s from a website called the property pin

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/
    You can select volume , average rent or median rent

    Thank you. I think Actual units let would provide additional detail on the decreases in asking prices.


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    #1167
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    brisan wrote: »
    I know one landlord with six properties on a self contained site
    2 tenants took rent breaks for April and May
    Both left early June without paying arrears.
    He put both on the market and neither have moved
    He gave one to his son and the other a 2 bed one bath with a fairly big courtyard is still on the market at 1850
    Normally his properties go fairly quick.
    They are close to a Dart Station , numerous bus routes , a 20 min walk to coast and a 10 min walk to St Anne’s Park.
    By my reckoning he is down close to 20 k with decorating costs.
    He won’t drop the rents as he is on a RPZ and is afraid the other tenants will look for a rent decrease.

    If he won’t drop the rents and the two empty ones haven’t moved since June, he’ll soon be with 6 empty apartments! Not moving on rent is pure idiocy, if he was smart about it he’d offer a rent free period at the end of the new lease. That way he’s not dropping headline rents but is offering something to compete with the new market


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    #1168
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Blut2 wrote: »
    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    You can also view the volume of units available too, yes:

    zKKHO7Z.jpg

    1,066 apartments were available Feb 1st, 2,123 on August 1st.

    Its a pretty incredible increase. Especially given the number of available units has hovered between 500-900 for all of the last 5 years - 1,066 wasn't even a low point, it was actually a high point to begin with.

    that is significant. Based on increased supply and falling rents i wonder if that is leading to increased activity? During lockdown people couldnt move around. Now that they can and with the economy only going 1 way, if i could save 20%ish on my rent i would move. Or if i could get a nicer place for the same money i am currently paying..... or use it as leverage to secure a reduction on current rent.


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    #1169
    rightmove
    Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭rightmove


    brisan wrote: »
    If the landlord was getting below market rate that was his fault for taking his eye off the ball
    If he was happy with below market rates why would he want market rates or above now.
    RPZ were brought in to give tenants some comfort on the rents and to stop landlords imposing major increases on tenants
    So my point is valid

    The LL on below market were caught out by being decent and your point makes no sense since you are only looking at it emotionally from the side of "bad LL's"

    RPZ were introduced when most greedy LL had already reached maximum and it was a PR exercise which only hurt sound LL's and eventually all tenants. Infact it could be argued it just ensured a 4% increase at the max out rates and no where else.

    What you dont seem to understand is bad policy is bad policy for everyone. SoI will ask the question again

    with failing rents surely the rpz is no longer valid


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    #1170
    polaco
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭polaco


    brisan wrote: »
    I know one landlord with six properties on a self contained site
    2 tenants took rent breaks for April and May
    Both left early June without paying arrears.
    He put both on the market and neither have moved
    He gave one to his son and the other a 2 bed one bath with a fairly big courtyard is still on the market at 1850
    Normally his properties go fairly quick.
    They are close to a Dart Station , numerous bus routes , a 20 min walk to coast and a 10 min walk to St Anne’s Park.
    By my reckoning he is down close to 20 k with decorating costs.
    He won’t drop the rents as he is on a RPZ and is afraid the other tenants will look for a rent decrease.

    Are you talking about apartment in Dublin 5 Brookwood Avenue?
    I went for viewing 6 weeks ago and is still available.
    https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/artane/brookwood-avenue-artane-dublin-2046583/


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    #1171
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I appreciate that, but I would imagine that ther

    e would also be considerable interest in nice properties at that price.


    https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/artane/brookwood-avenue-artane-dublin-2046583/
    Both been there a while


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