[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 17 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 17 to 23 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50-75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal (2-2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mainly cloudy and very mild with occasional drizzle, south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, hill fog and mist. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will bring somewhat stronger winds and rain (5-10 mm) with a gradual windshift to west-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows by morning around 7 C although staying very mild especially in Leinster and Munster until after midnight.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and cooler with passing squally showers, and brighter intervals. An interval of very strong winds is likely by late afternoon and evening, with severe gusts possible in exposed western and northern counties. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr most of the day will increase to 80-120 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and to 60-100 km/hr elsewhere, with risk of an interval of severe wind gusts in other areas especially inland north central to central Leinster, during the overnight hours. These very strong winds will veer from west to northwest before they diminish by Thursday morning. Highs on Wednesday around 8 C and temperatures during the strong winds 6-7 C.

THURSDAY will become less windy and there may be a brief dry spell but by afternoon and evening, mild southwest winds will set in again bringing light rain at times, lows of 5-7 C and highs 10-12 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and very mild, rather similar to today in fact with drizzle and mist, highs 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy with passing showers, turning slightly cooler, temperatures steady 9 to 11 C sliding slowly down to about 6 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for somewhat cooler weather to develop, as well as generally rather dry conditions, possibly ending up with a cool southeast wind with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, temperatures generally closer to seasonal normals of 6 to 8 C.

Hurricane Iota reached cat-5 status before hitting the same part of Nicaragua that cat-4 Eta visited a few days ago. November cat-5 hurricanes are very rare, it may be as far back as 1932 to the previous one. The count for the season is now an amazing (or ridiculous) 30/13/6 which is about double what many had predicted in what they thought would be a rather active season. Well ... my local weather produced about 5 cm of wet snow during the day, it is now misty and about 2-3 C with drizzle falling. Hopefully it won't turn to heavier rain as the surface is already quite slushy on top of the 20 cm snow pack we still have.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 18 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Nov 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal (about 2 to 2.5 hours daily), and could do a bit better in some eastern counties as several days are looking no more than partly cloudy.

As Novembers go, this one seems rather bland so far.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with a few bursts of moderate rainfall moving across the country this morning and followed by brief clearing, and that will give way to partly cloudy to overcast skies with squally showers in bands feeding in from the Atlantic in gusty west to northwest winds expected to develop rapidly around mid-day and spread through most areas overnight. Winds currently southerly to southwesterly 50 to 70 km/hr will veer westerly at similar speeds, perhaps moderate slightly then pick up to westerly 60 to 100 km/hr, with higher gusts developing near Atlantic coasts (potential to 120 km/hr locally). Temperatures currently very mild in the east will fall off to values already present in western counties, 6 to 9 C, then stay relatively steady during the stronger winds later.

TONIGHT will be windy with potential for severe gusts continuing near Galway Bay and other parts of the Atlantic coast, spreading more into Ulster as the night continues, and a few transient gusts may make their way through central counties and appear on the east coast later in the night, although they may be quite brief in duration. A few showers will accompany this windy regime and temperatures will stay fairly steady around 6 or 7 C.

THURSDAY will see a considerable improvement in the winds shortly after sunrise with prospects for a relatively pleasant morning with sunny intervals, temperatures near 7 C. By afternoon cloud and increasing southwest winds will bring in some more light rain, with temperatures rising rather than falling during the overnight hours.

FRIDAY will stay breezy to windy and mild with occasional rain, temperatures steady 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will turn a bit cooler in moderate westerly winds, with some dry intervals and isolated patchy light rain or drizzle, temperatures steady in the range of 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will start out rather cold under partly cloudy skies, morning lows 1 to 4 C, then the day will slowly warm back towards 10 C as another milder sector arrives, lasting through MONDAY with temperatures then steady around 10 to 12 C with occasional light rain.

The OUTLOOK calls for somewhat cooler weather, the Atlantic still in control but the flow slowing down to allow more of a temporary cooling influence as high pressure ridges drift across from west to east, so temperatures in the last week of November are likely to be closer to normal values with perhaps a touch of frost in places on some occasions, also small amounts of rain. There is still a stormy signal near the end of the guidance but this has been postponed somewhat from earlier expectations. It seems likely to become more unsettled again as there are no strong signs of anything to replace the Atlantic dominated westerly flow.

Iota downgraded to a tropical storm now well inland over Nicaragua and El Salvador, southern Honduras, all taking a beating from very heavy rainfalls and the still gusty winds. This one is not expected to have any further life once it dies out, unless perhaps it spawns a tropical storm in the Pacific as sometimes happens with these low-latitude Caribbean storms.

My local weather turned milder with drizzle and temperatures up to around 6 C, rather messy but at least we dodged a heavier rainfall and now expecting to slide back into colder weather with a transitional mixture again, turning to all snow within a day or two. Communications are badly disrupted by some kind of clash in the back country between trees (possibly slides too) and infrastructure, most regional TV service and bank card service is down, luckily I have a different provider for my internet or I would not be on-line telling you about it. Seems like this must have been way back in the woods somewhere remote because it has not been repaired after half a day which is unusually slow.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 19 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Nov 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, closer to average by end of the interval though.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine may manage to exceed normal amounts slightly (by 25 to 50 per cent).

FORECASTS

TODAY will become less windy and there will be a few breaks in the overcast, although patchy light rain or drizzle continues in a few parts of the west and north mainly. By late afternoon some light rain may arrive in Atlantic coastal counties with winds still rather moderate from the southwest. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become windy at times with 5-10 mm rain expected in most areas, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy and milder with occasional rain or drizzle, highs 11-13 C, winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, somewhat cooler again with temperatures near 9 C until afternoon, falling slowly later in the day.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain and moderate winds, highs near 8 C.

MONDAY will be overcast and milder with rain, highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK for the rest of the week is for somewhat colder weather and generally fair, as high pressure enters the sequence, still controlled by the Atlantic but with a pause of about two days expected in the parade of frontal systems, this could lead to slight frosts mid-week and highs 6 to 8 C.

Towards the weekend of 28th-29th most guidance is showing rather stormy weather conditions with deep low pressure arriving from the southwest, and starting off at rather cold temperatures, so a sleety mix on high ground would be possible although likely just a cold rain closer to sea level, with strong east winds developing if this early scenario maintains itself. Still time for this to change to something either colder or milder but the idea of the strong low pressure makes sense as we approach full moon at the end of the month.

My local weather stayed rather mild most of the day, some light rain changed to wet snow and now it's just misty with freezing drizzle as temperatures slowly fall below zero here.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 20 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Nov 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal but the trend will be towards rather cold temperatures later in this weekly interval;
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, often rather dry in coming days.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with occasional light rain or drizzle, moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, and temperatures steady around 11 or 12 C.

TONIGHT will see further light rain or showers, moderate southwest winds, lows 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will start out rather cloudy and mild, turning partly cloudy later in the day, only a few isolated showers and temperatures steady around 8 to 10 C, falling off a bit by late afternoon and evening. Not as windy as today, and followed by a colder night than we've seen recently, lows falling to about 2 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers developing in the afternoon and evening, rather cool, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY will be somewhat milder again, cloudy with light rain, moderate southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy to windy and turning colder, blustery showers likely, some turning wintry on higher terrain especially in the north and west, but remaining either rain or hail showers at lower elevations. Winds westerly to northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr, highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be rather cold with scattered showers, a few hilltops could see sleet or snow accumulations, but not cold enough for that in most lower elevations. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY will be somewhat milder again with light rain, highs 8 to 10 C.

The OUTLOOK is very uncertain with all guidance showing different solutions after agreeing generally on the first five or six days, some want to bring in very unsettled and even stormy weather conditions by about the weekend of the 28th-29th, others are just prolonging the alternating spells of mild and cool in rather similar conditions to this coming week. I have a hunch the stormier scenario will win out but not convinced that any details I've seen so far are very accurate, most likely outcome given the pattern we seem locked into now would be an Atlantic southwest gale around Sunday 29th or Monday 30th, have to wait and see though.

My local weather was very drab on Thursday with overcast skies and temperatures near 2 C, maintaining a rather crunchy snow pack of 15 cms locally but quite a bit less down in the nearby valleys. Quite rare for this season but there is no tropical activity to report and we're holding at 30 named storms. Betting there's one more due in December and that will be it for 2020.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 21 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average near seasonal normal values.
-- Rainfall will amount to 50% of normal or less in some places.
-- Sunshine will be near average for late November (about 2h a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, in moderate west-southwest winds of 50 to 70 km/hr. There may be some brighter intervals by mid-day and afternoon although a few showers will persist in the northwest counties. Highs will be close to the current temperatures around 10 C with a gradual falling off this afternoon towards 5-7 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and rather cold (by this month's standards anyway) with lows 1 to 3 C and scattered light frosts possible.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals, with isolated showers becoming a steady drizzle or light rain near south coast by afternoon and evening. Rather chilly (again by this month's standards) with highs 6 to 8 C.

MONDAY will be slightly milder again as winds become more southerly, with occasional light rain, highs 9 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast and breezy to windy with showers, highs 8 to 10 C. It will begin to turn colder late in the day and some of the rain could turn to hail at low elevations and sleet on higher slopes. Nothing disruptive is expected though, mostly the wintry falls would be higher than almost all populated areas or main roads.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking more settled and rather cold as higher pressure develops over the region, highs both days 6 to 8 C and morning lows around -1 C, possibly a bit colder in a few spots. Each day could produce some isolated showers in parts of Connacht and Ulster mainly and these could drop a bit of mixed wintry precipitation on higher peaks.

By FRIDAY some weak frontal systems are expected back in the picture but details are rather sketchy as the systems are rather weak. Temperatures are likely to be around 7 C.

WEEKEND 28th-29th could produce some rain at times but again details are sketchy, would prefer to wait for more reliable guidance as this weakening trend for the model guidance at present might be a temporary change.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with temperatures between zero and 2 C, and some wet snow fell at times, nothing accumulating or melting from our previous snow cover. Low energy weather systems are also the rule across North America and for this time of year, it's hard to find very much active weather anywhere, something which will likely change quite soon.

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 22 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average near seasonal normals (which at this point are around 10 C daytime maxima and 3 C overnight lows).
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, most of that is expected on Monday night into Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent above normal, but that's only about 2.5 to 3 hours of the nine hours that the sun is above the horizon nowadays. (December is generally the cloudiest month of the year, November and January are close behind).


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and generally dry, with a few isolated showers possible near Atlantic coasts and across parts of the inland north. Rather cool with highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and rather chilly again with lows 1 to 4 C, some local frost is possible, but temperatures will tend to rise after midnight especially in western counties.

MONDAY will become overcast after possibly a few brighter intervals in the morning (at least in Leinster and Ulster), then rain will arrive towards mid-afternoon in the south and west. Moderate southerly breezes will set in, and it will turn a few degrees milder, highs 10 or 11 C.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY some rain is likely with moderate southwest winds, then partial clearing by mid-day Tuesday, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C, about 10 mm rainfalls expected. It will start to turn cooler Tuesday afternoon and will be quite cold Tuesday night. Any lingering showers could become wintry over higher ground.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, and rather cold, with isolated showers, some wintry over higher ground. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, after morning frosts, lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY at this point are looking a bit unsettled mainly for southern counties where rain could become persistent at times, but only small amounts further north with partly cloudy skies at times, as weak disturbances start to make a slow northward push in advance of more vigorous lows expected later in the following week. Temperatures during the last few days of November will be generally near average, 7 to 9 C and cloud cover will keep nights a bit milder than mid-week (2 to 5 C). Stronger winds and heavier rainfalls look likely by the first week to ten days of December.

It's going to be cold enough at times to remind us that winter is setting in, but nothing too drastic appears on the charts for the foreseeable future anyway, wind and rain being fairly typical of early December anyway.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy and cold with temperatures near -1 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 23 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, with a colder turn starting late Tuesday. Given that today is likely to be above the seasonal average, this means the rest of the interval will average 3 deg below normal.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, most if not all of which will occur in the next day and a half.
-- Sunshine will average near seasonal normals.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become overcast with occasional rain, rather light at first, and moderate southerly winds by afternoon reaching 40-60 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will bring periods of rain that may amount to 15-30 mm although heavier in west-central counties than elsewhere. Lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, with the initial rainfall ending from west to east during the morning, then scattered showers will develop, in moderate west to northwest breezes, 40 to 60 km/hr. It will turn colder in stages from northwest to southeast, temperatures starting out 7 to 9 C and falling off gradually in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY will start out quite cold with scattered frosts and risk of mixed wintry showers on hills in the west and north mainly. A lot of places will remain dry though, and the day will become partly cloudy, still rather cold inland, moderating close to the coasts. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will have a sharp frost in some areas, cloud may prevent it elsewhere, and a wide range of morning temperatures -4 to +2 C, probably coldest in the usual areas of the inland north and west. Some fog may develop and it may be slow to clear due to inversions and light winds, but conditions near the coast will become fairly pleasant if chilly, with highs ranging from 5 to 10 C depending on when the inversion breaks down. Isolated wintry showers are possible in Ulster.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud and a slight moderating trend generally, lows -3 to +3 C with scattered morning frosts, then overcast by afternoon, some light rain brushing into coastal west and north, highs 7 to 10 C. There could still be a few places, this time more likely inland southeast, remaining colder due to trapped cold air in valleys.

The WEEKEND is still somewhat uncertain in its evolution, weak disturbances may beef up gradually over the interval and spin around to the south of Ireland spreading some cloud and even sleety light rain in rather cool southeast winds, but there is some chance it would just remain dry if rather cloudy. Eventually these weaker patterns are likely to be replaced by a more active but rather cold Atlantic west to northwest pattern that could become borderline wintry at times as there won't be a lot of mild air mixing into these disturbances coming from the general direction of the higher latitude North Atlantic south of Iceland. Even so, confidence in any scenarios is rather limited given that some blocking tendencies are beginning to develop. High pressure could end up playing a bigger role.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast although fairly bright with the sun dimly visible at times, and it was around the freezing point (rather rare for me, I stayed in all day). Milder weather is returning to eastern regions at least south of the Great Lakes where a minor disturbance is bringing a wintry mix across parts of the lower Great Lakes today. Further south, it's around 12-15 C and this gradient will persist for a few days with a stronger storm developing later in the week along the same path. I'm not expecting much active weather in my far western region though. This seems like one of the drier Novembers I can recall around here, usually it's raining or snowing almost every day at this time of year, but three quarters of the time it has been dry this month.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 24 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be locally heavy today, after which the rest of the interval looks generally dry.
-- Sunshine will be near normal values, some potential for higher amounts in coastal locations as inland areas could remain foggy or at least under low cloud despite high pressure dominating, a few spots could have much lower totals.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... A band of moderate rainfall will bring a further 15-25 mm to parts of west Munster and Connacht, as it slowly edges east, parts of Ulster will see 10-20 mm also. By mid-afternoon a weakening front will pick up speed and drop around 5-10 mm amounts in most of Leinster this afternoon into the early evening hours. Elsewhere, once the front has passed, temperatures will drop several degrees to around 5-7 C (currently near 10 C where the rain is heavy, and highs today 10-12 C east of the frontal zone). Winds relatively moderate at southwest 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and turning quite cold, with isolated showers becoming wintry on some higher terrain in the west and north. Lows -1 to +3 C. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold, highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY ... Morning fog or low cloud with scattered frost, all may be rather persistent in some inland valley areas due to light winds and a stable inversion layer, coasts should clear to partly cloudy skies fairly rapidly though, as a result, a wide range of temperatures may occur, lows -4 to +2 C and highs 4 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Similar to the previous day, perhaps a bit more extensive fog and frost and a larger area failing to clear away to more moderate temperatures, but lows and highs in the same range, -4 to +2 C, then 4 to 10 C by mid-day. Very light winds in most areas. Some drizzle could be encountered in some western and northern coastal areas at times.

SATURDAY ... Little change but with somewhat stronger southeast winds, the various fog and low cloud layers will probably merge into a general low overcast with some breaks (these more likely in coastal areas), lows -3 to +3 C and highs 5 to 9 C. Patchy light drizzle possible at times.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, one or two showers possible in the north, not quite as cold, lows -2 to +3 C and highs around 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... From Monday (30 Nov) to about Thursday (3 Dec), high pressure may re-assert control and there could be further frosts, fog and light winds with more moderate conditions around coastal districts. Highs will be in the range of 2 to 7 C. It currently looks as though the Atlantic will enjoy a week-long rest then slowly return to asserting control over the circulation with this high weakening gradually by 4th-5th December and then some Atlantic frontal systems managing to make it back through although reduced indications now of any stormy conditions, perhaps this may return to the forecasts however, as these blocking situations are difficult for the models to predict in detail beyond about a week or so.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and chilly with highs around -2 C. The freeze-thaw cycle has been mostly on freeze so we have some icy sidewalks in places, doing the penguin walk when out and about. Snow cover has settled in at about 10-15 cms of largely frozen old snow from 2-3 weeks ago. There was a fresh coating this morning of perhaps 1 cm.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 25 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 Nov to 1 Dec 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, coldest in valleys well inland, more moderate in coastal areas.
-- Rainfall will average only about 10 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be quite variable dependent on fog either lifting or becoming persistent, so once again coastal areas may do better as cold air won't get trapped as easily, leading to clearing skies.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be relatively pleasant for this time of year, a few passing showers this morning in southwest Munster, and mixed wintry showers possible on hills in north Connacht and west Ulster later on, but sunny intervals likely for most areas, breezes dying down to quite moderate levels and highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clear skies for a while before fog and low cloud begin to develop, some scattered outbreaks of frost likely, some locally sharp frosts in the usual cold spots, lows -4 to +2 C.

THURSDAY will have quite variable sky conditions in nearly calm wind conditions, some areas will have persistent fog and low cloud, most likely where coldest overnight, and coastal districts are more likely to clear to partly cloudy or even sunny conditions, with resultant milder temperatures, so highs anywhere from 4 C to 9 or 10 C.

FRIDAY will be similar with morning frosts and low cloud or fog patches, then variable cloud conditions later in the day, morning lows -4 to +2 C and highs 5 to 10 C.

SATURDAY is looking somewhat breezy now with a weak disturbance trying to push into the high pressure and bringing moderate southeast winds into play, this will likely prevent much frost or fog and lead to widespread low cloud layers with patchy drizzle, temperatures between 3 and 7 C.

SUNDAY the high will begin to edge back into dominance and that will likely lead to the low cloud layers breaking up to some local sunshine, temperatures between -2 C in some valleys in the morning to the range of 4-7 C by afternoon.

MONDAY to about THURSDAY of the following week may see stubborn high pressure holding the Atlantic weather systems at bay but only the first half of that can be considered fairly reliable, the high may not survive that long as eventually the flow will become stronger from the west to northwest, and some rather chilly unsettled conditions with sleety forms of mixed precipitation seem possible towards weekend of 5-6 December. There are scenarios in which some snow could fall in that period, but far too early to get very specific about those prospects, it may be more likely to be the cold rain and hill sleet/snow mixture instead.

My local weather was overcast with light snow all day, accumulating only to about 2 cms despite falling continuously, with temperatures steady around -1 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 26 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg below normal values, with a slow moderating trend towards normal.
-- Rainfall will be slight where it does occur at all.
-- Sunshine will be near normal values although subject to variations dependent on fog persistence.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cold and foggy in some places, partly cloudy to sunny in others (more likely near coasts or on higher terrain). Some of the fog will be persistent and may only lift slightly to low cloud layers by mid-day, and where this happens, it will remain quite cold with highs near 4 C. In places where fog is not a factor, highs 8 to 10 C are likely. Some icy patches will be developing shortly after sunrise and extreme caution is advised if you're driving in areas that are either frosty or foggy this morning.

TONIGHT will start out clear in many areas, then once again could become foggy for a time, with scattered frosts. There will likely be large variations in temperature from one place to another in the light winds and scattered frost scenario, lows -4 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will see more of the persistent fog and low cloud but in general there may be less prolonged versions of it as breezes begin to pick up slightly, then the rest of the day is likely to become partly to mostly cloudy with highs around 6 to 9 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and moderate southeast winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see somewhat of a return to the drier and calmer conditions with a bit of scattered frost and fog, afternoon sunny breaks, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle approaching the south and west during the interval, and it could become rather breezy, temperatures around 5 to 8 C, with some risk of it turning a bit colder towards Thursday.

The outlook is interesting if unreliable -- some models develop an intense storm system around 5-6 December, others take the same pattern and keep it mostly similar with east winds and low pressure developing to a lesser extent over the Biscay region. Some of these scenarios would be rather cold with mixed wintry precipitation a possibility. Others would feature strong winds and spells of rain, sleet and snow. However, none of them has reached much of a reliable status yet so they are just speculation at this point.

My local weather on Wednesday had a bit of sunshine at times for a nice change, and occasional light flurries, with temperatures remaining in a similar range to recent days, -2 to zero C.

Take care out there.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 27 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Nov to 3 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 or 2 deg below normal, except near or slightly above average in parts of the north.
-- Rainfall will be very slight and won't exceed 10 per cent at many locations.
-- Sunshine will be near the rather stingy seasonal normal of 2 hours a day.


FORECASTS

TODAY sees another rather mixed but in places frosty or foggy start, caution required for driving in some areas with a combination of near-freezing temperatures and patchy dense fog. Other areas have escaped this or are under higher cloud layers in the west, preventing frost or fog formation. By mid-day most places will have reached highs near 9 or 10 C but a few pockets in the southeast could remain colder. Very light winds with a slight southerly breeze near the Atlantic coasts. Once any fog disperses, some sunny intervals, longer in eastern counties, and cloudy intervals.

TONIGHT will be more overcast with lows 2 to 5 C, anywhere that does manage to stay clear for the evening may fog up at least for a while though.

SATURDAY will be mainly cloudy with patchy drizzle, moderate east to southeast breezes, highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and there could be a return to some morning fog or frost in a few spots, lows generally above freezing however, especially in the north which could be quite mild due to a weak westerly wind flow. Lows further south -2 to +4 C, and highs in all areas 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will remain under the influence of high pressure, but it seems more likely to be that stagnant mild variety with a weak Atlantic warming influence, so expect highs 8 to 12 C and lows 3 to 6 C. Staying dry to at least Wednesday except for any patchy drizzle near Atlantic coasts.

Later in the week, we still have some disparity in the model guidance but nothing like what confronted us yesterday, the intense storm that one model was indicating has been toned down to something of more moderate proportions, and a bit further east, while other models are moving in that same general direction and making changes also. The consensus now seems to be what we call "cold zonality" which is an Atlantic-driven northwest flow that is unsettled with passing frontal systems and the risk of some mixing of precipitation to include wintry varieties, especially on higher ground. So the end of next week looks rather chilly and sometimes wet with passing showers that might include hail, sleet or snow in some areas (not so much close to sea level however). Temperatures in this interval would likely be around 4 to 7 C.

My local weather was overcast, a bit foggy, and cold with highs only around -3 C. Hoping the sky clears just once in the next week or two so I can get a good view of the ever-closer Jupiter-Saturn conjunction (low in the southwest after sunset is where to look for that, if you happen to get a clear evening where you live). The absolute closest they will get (and it's the closest they ever do come, apparently) will be on 21st December. Chances of clear skies around then are about 10-20 per cent unfortunately.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 28 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Nov to 4 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will be fairly close to average values for this time of year, peaking a little above normal at times around Monday-Tuesday and then dipping somewhat below normal later in the interval.
-- Rainfalls will begin to pick up after a dry start, or almost dry with patchy light rain possible today, and by near the end of the interval some places may reach 50% of their weekly average, although 25% might be more typical.
-- Sunshine will do well to appear at all, given the amount of cloud in the forecasts, but a few places will manage to creep up to values close to normal even if most stay around half of that.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and there could be patchy drizzle or light rain in a few places later. Somewhat stronger breezes (southeast 30-50 km/hr) will begin to mix the air, and highs will reach about 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will remain rather cloudy, with perhaps a bit of clearing towards dawn, if so there could be fog formation in some valleys. Lows 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and highs will be once again 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will be rather cloudy with light winds again, but it should stay rather mild, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with some light rain spreading gradually into western regions. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

The OUTLOOK is uncertain to be frank, with guidance all over the place about how, where and when the weak ridge of high pressure breaks down. Some guidance just shoves the ridge further north and allows a stronger easterly flow which would become somewhat colder although by no means wintry. Other guidance collapses the ridge quite fast and replaces it with cold, unsettled weather governed by low pressure tracking east across Scotland. Another idea I saw in my preparation was a sort of blend that led to a wintry mixture of precipitation. So at this point, I think the best forecast to make is that chances are fairly high for cold rain or sleety mixtures late in the week, but it isn't entirely nailed down yet. The most likely temperature range would be 3 to 7 C.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with temperatures close to zero Celsius, could use some sort of break in a warm sunny location but there are very few of those within 50 kms of here (that's our version of the 5 km rule, it's a big open country so about the same concept I guess).

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 29 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 November to 5 December 2020 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, somewhat above at first, trending towards 1-2 deg below average later in the week.
-- Rainfall will be slight for the first half of the week but will gradually pick up with wintry mixtures providing some of the moisture, to reach near average amounts for a week at this time of year.
-- Sunshine will be limited, but could manage to approach average amounts of only 2 hours a day.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mainly cloudy with lingering fog and mist especially inland over valleys, but a few places could get some brighter intervals. Highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and misty, rather mild, lows 4 to 8 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue rather featureless with cloud and mist prevailing, some patchy outbreaks of light rain edging further south and east, and highs both days 8 to 11 C, the overnight low for Tuesday morning also around 4 to 8 C.

By WEDNESDAY a rather complex Atlantic disturbance will be drifting into a more dominant role and spreading rain and moderate winds into the region. Details are not really confirmed by any means, the low seems likely to drift through the regions south and east of Ireland but eventually a cluster of weak and disorganized systems will begin to circulate around throughout Britain and Ireland, and the results will be variable amounts of cloud, scattered precipitation that might sometimes include wintry mixtures especially on hills, and temperatures a bit lower than most of this recent month, close to 5 C. There are ways that this could turn into a significant snowfall and I am watching that carefully, as are many others, but the spread in the guidance is too large to have much confidence in any particular details yet, the general concept of cool and unsettled will have to do us for now. Since that portion of the outlook is uncertain, anything beyond about a week to ten days is looking really speculative, as it would be fairly easy for several different patterns to emerge. It could go back to westerly flow and Atlantic-driven disturbances, or it could return to this blocking pattern only with a colder theme, or it might just stay chaotic and unsettled with no strong trends.

My local weather turned sunny which was nice, and we had a good view of the planetary conjunction this recent evening, in very cold but clear conditions, temperature at mid-day near -2 C and dropping well below that since sunset, probably on the way down to about -10 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 30 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal, and starting out a little milder than average, this implies quite cold weather past about Wednesday (3 to 5 deg below later in the interval).
-- Rainfall (including liquid equivalent of wintry types of precip) will average near normal values to 25% above.
-- Sunshine will average about normal, the usual meagre amount for early December.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and relatively mild with light winds, some mist in a few places, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT could see some local clearing allowing fog and frost patches but many places are likely to stay partly cloudy to overcast. Lows in a few spots near -1 C but generally 4 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, and a moderate southwest wind will begin during the day, with highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will have morning rain or showers, clearing skies for a time, then locally blustery showers in colder air arriving in stages, winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Morning lows 3 to 6 C, mid-day temperatures about 7 then falling to 2-4 C later.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and quite cold, with mixed wintry showers developing in bands, in moderate to strong northerly winds. Some details on areas to receive bands of wintry showers will be clearer by mid-week as much depends on exact wind direction, and that depends on the exact track of a strong low that will form south of Ireland and move to eastern England. It could be that a lot of the east coast activity will remain offshore but some parallel bands could move across land. Western counties are more likely to see heavy bands from the Atlantic. Temperatures will be only about 2 to 5 C and it will be snowing or sleeting at times on higher ground, rain and hail mixtures more likely near sea level. Winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts developing.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue in this same theme as the low now appears likely to move slowly around in a loop back towards Wales and southwest England. During this time, winds in eastern Ireland will become strong and gusty and may back around to the northeast allowing development of Irish Sea streamers of mixed wintry showers. Temperatures appear marginal for heavy settling snow on lower ground, but acceptable for accumulations on the hills of Dublin and Wicklow counties. Again, more precision will be possible in these forecasts closer to the time. Temperatures will continue steady in the range of 2 to 5 C for most areas, could briefly fall below freezing at night in western inland districts.

SUNDAY is likely to be a day of some improvement as the storm moves away but it will stay cold and any isolated showers would likely be rather wintry and mixed. Lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

Around Monday and Tuesday, a partial reset of the current situation will not draw in much mild air and the result will be a risk of wintry mixtures of sleet, snow and freezing rain, if the maps currently on offer were to work out. We'll leave this as a challenge to be solved later though, as by then small differences in the evolution of the storm in coming days could make that longer range situation considerably different.

Once again I'll underline the fact that only small changes in some of the guidance could tilt the balance more towards snow, at this point the temperature profiles look just that little bit too warm for widespread lowland snow, so at this point will say, not quite like 2010, but more like it than most recent early December periods since then.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy and just a touch milder at 2 deg C. This did not result in much if any thaw or melt though, and we're in a deep wintry spell already here.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 30 November, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal, and starting out a little milder than average, this implies quite cold weather past about Wednesday (3 to 5 deg below later in the interval).
-- Rainfall (including liquid equivalent of wintry types of precip) will average near normal values to 25% above.
-- Sunshine will average about normal, the usual meagre amount for early December.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and relatively mild with light winds, some mist in a few places, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT could see some local clearing allowing fog and frost patches but many places are likely to stay partly cloudy to overcast. Lows in a few spots near -1 C but generally 4 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, and a moderate southwest wind will begin during the day, with highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will have morning rain or showers, clearing skies for a time, then locally blustery showers in colder air arriving in stages, winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Morning lows 3 to 6 C, mid-day temperatures about 7 then falling to 2-4 C later.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and quite cold, with mixed wintry showers developing in bands, in moderate to strong northerly winds. Some details on areas to receive bands of wintry showers will be clearer by mid-week as much depends on exact wind direction, and that depends on the exact track of a strong low that will form south of Ireland and move to eastern England. It could be that a lot of the east coast activity will remain offshore but some parallel bands could move across land. Western counties are more likely to see heavy bands from the Atlantic. Temperatures will be only about 2 to 5 C and it will be snowing or sleeting at times on higher ground, rain and hail mixtures more likely near sea level. Winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts developing.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue in this same theme as the low now appears likely to move slowly around in a loop back towards Wales and southwest England. During this time, winds in eastern Ireland will become strong and gusty and may back around to the northeast allowing development of Irish Sea streamers of mixed wintry showers. Temperatures appear marginal for heavy settling snow on lower ground, but acceptable for accumulations on the hills of Dublin and Wicklow counties. Again, more precision will be possible in these forecasts closer to the time. Temperatures will continue steady in the range of 2 to 5 C for most areas, could briefly fall below freezing at night in western inland districts.

SUNDAY is likely to be a day of some improvement as the storm moves away but it will stay cold and any isolated showers would likely be rather wintry and mixed. Lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

Around Monday and Tuesday, a partial reset of the current situation will not draw in much mild air and the result will be a risk of wintry mixtures of sleet, snow and freezing rain, if the maps currently on offer were to work out. We'll leave this as a challenge to be solved later though, as by then small differences in the evolution of the storm in coming days could make that longer range situation considerably different.

Once again I'll underline the fact that only small changes in some of the guidance could tilt the balance more towards snow, at this point the temperature profiles look just that little bit too warm for widespread lowland snow, so at this point will say, not quite like 2010, but more like it than most recent early December periods since then.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy and just a touch milder at 2 deg C. This did not result in much if any thaw or melt though, and we're in a deep wintry spell already here.