Is Joe Schmidt concealing his hand?

molloyjh · 02-09-2015 11:17pm

Ah the stage is set for one of two things to happen. The first is that we continue our current form against the French, get past a tough but manageable Argie side and make it to the SF for the first time ever. From there who knows. The second is that the French revert to type and break our feckin' hearts again by doing a number on us, whereby we end up at a stage in the competition we've never gotten past against an opponent we've never beaten. Plus ça change and all that. The first follows current form whereas the latter doesn't.

From a purely analytical point of view the French don't worry me all that much. For all their strengths (and they've a good few) they simply aren't coached well enough. The 2 games in the last 2 6 Nations that we lost saw our opposition put in fantastic displays defensively. When under the cosh for periods they trusted their systems and each other and as a unit they prevailed. If there's a side least likely to do that in the top 10 it's the French. And if they start Michalak, well then that just improves our chances dramatically. He may have been given a free ride against England, but he won't be against us. If we have a full squad out I'd back us to scrape it.

That said it would be utterly foolish to expect this to come to pass......

oneils23 · 02-09-2015 11:23pm

France seem to be coming good for the World Cup as they always seem to. If we don't beat them and finish second in our pool, I would still give us a great chance of beating NZ. We are a match for anyone on our day, especially when we're going in as the underdogs

Dave_The_Sheep · 02-09-2015 11:23pm

molloyjh wrote: »

That said it would be utterly foolish to expect this to come to pass......

What gets me is we've all be around long enough that the poor form in the WC is what we fear/prettymuchexpect to come to pass.

On paper, we should top the group, get past a competitive but straightforward quarter, and it's 50/50 in the semi.

Sometimes, I can't get past my innate pessimism driven into me during the 90s and early 00s, followed by choking during the latter 00s. As much as my head tells me we ****ing have this group, and if we play to our strengths we have a semi within our reach.

That said, if there was a coach to make me get over myself, it'd be Schmidt.

molloyjh · 02-09-2015 11:28pm

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

What gets me is we've all be around long enough that the poor form in the WC is what we fear/prettymuchexpect to come to pass.

On paper, we should top the group, get past a competitive but straightforward quarter, and it's 50/50 in the semi.

Sometimes, I can't get past my innate pessimism driven into me during the 90s and early 00s, followed by choking during the latter 00s. As much as my head tells me we ****ing have this group, and if we play to our strengths we have a semi within our reach.

That said, if there was a coach to make me get over myself, it'd be Schmidt.

We don't have the group though. We are favourites, and rightly so. But we don't have it.

Having realistic expectations (as opposed to overly optimistic or pessimistic ones) is the way to go. France are still a talented side and they still have it in them to beat us. And if that happens we won't be favourites against NZ. However France could just as easily lose 2 games in the pool as well (Italy and us). It's still up in the air, we just have good reason to be optimistic. Just as long as we don't get carried away with that optimism.

Podge_irl · 02-09-2015 11:31pm

Let's be fair here, France could obviously beat us. However we are going into that game as favourites. Yes, just like NZ went in as favourites against France in 99 and 07 and it could go tits up, but we'll be favourites and we'll be favourites for a reason.

Dave_The_Sheep · 02-09-2015 11:34pm

molloyjh wrote: »

Having realistic expectations (as opposed to overly optimistic or pessimistic ones) is the way to go. France are still a talented side and they still have it in them to beat us. And if that happens we won't be favourites against NZ. However France could just as easily lose 2 games in the pool as well (Italy and us). It's still up in the air, we just have good reason to be optimistic. Just as long as we don't get carried away with that optimism.

I don't doubt the team are exactly in that frame of mind. Realistic, take each opposition seriously. They're far more solid than I am.

I'll be a quivering mess come Oct 4th and 11th. They won't. I've watched too many France games, and they're good enough to pip us on their day.

Realistically, I'm curious as to how much our (as fans) expectations affect the team. I hope 100% not (and expect it's slightly less than that but not much at all).

LorMal · 02-09-2015 11:34pm

.ak wrote: »

Personally I love all this naysaying.

Yes, I think it is good to challenge the party line sometimes. I hate it when the hype escalates and group think sets in.
Of course Ireland can win and I think they have a decent chance of a really good performance with Joe as coach, a relatively benign draw, the WC being held locally and the team in good form coming into the competition.
However, I start to get niggled when hope turns to expectation and when no criticism or objectivity is tolerated in debate. The ones who will hear no criticism of the tactics or the team now will be the first (and most vociferous) to condemn Joe and the players if we go out at an early stage.

Stheno · 02-09-2015 11:39pm

LorMal wrote: »

Yes, I think it is good to challenge the party line sometimes. I hate it when the hype escalates and group think sets in.
Of course Ireland can win and I think they have a decent chance of a really good performance with Joe as coach, a relatively benign draw, the WC being held locally and the team in good form coming into the competition.
However, I start to get niggled when hope turns to expectation and when no criticism or objectivity is tolerated in debate. The ones who will hear no criticism of the tactics or the team now will be the first (and most vociferous) to condemn Joe and the players if we go out at an early stage.

I dunno

I think we've our best ever chance to perform well at a wc than before.

I'd love to see us out of our group into a quarter, and a semi

I genuinely find it hard to believe we could make the final

I just can't imagine that

molloyjh · 03-09-2015 12:02am

LorMal wrote: »

Yes, I think it is good to challenge the party line sometimes. I hate it when the hype escalates and group think sets in.
Of course Ireland can win and I think they have a decent chance of a really good performance with Joe as coach, a relatively benign draw, the WC being held locally and the team in good form coming into the competition.
However, I start to get niggled when hope turns to expectation and when no criticism or objectivity is tolerated in debate. The ones who will hear no criticism of the tactics or the team now will be the first (and most vociferous) to condemn Joe and the players if we go out at an early stage.

That's some fancy time travel shenanigans you've got going on there predicting who will say what if we go out early. There's a happy medium to be struck between the wildly optimistic and the dour pessimistic. And that is that we are in the best position we've ever been in. That's a matter of absolute fact. We've never gone into a RWC as 6 Nations champions, let alone back to back champions having beaten every side bar 1 of the top sides in the world.

Is our game what some expected from Joe? No. Is it working? Yes. Have we seen much evidence that it won't work in the RWC? No, some but not much. There's nothing at all wrong with being optimistic about our chances. And some of the comments on this thread about being "found out" or not having the game to do well at a RWC is more unfounded than those being overly optimistic. It's taking the exception as the guide to future form and not actual form.

That's not at all to say that we don't have to vary our game. We do. And I firmly believe that we will. We've varied it from game to game, just subtly. We need more of that combined with the accuracy we've come to expect. We've become a hard team to beat. Not impossible, but hard. Nothing wrong with pointing that out, and even enjoying it.

LorMal · 03-09-2015 9:01am

Its all this 'back to back champions having beaten every side bar 1 of the top sides in the world' stuff that gets me. Doesn't matter one iota. If we play hoof ball we will get stuffed.

kuang1 · 03-09-2015 9:10am

LorMal wrote: »

Its all this 'back to back champions having beaten every side bar 1 of the top sides in the world' stuff that gets me. Doesn't matter one iota. If we play hoof ball we will get stuffed.

Think you've proven beyond all reasonable doubt now that either a) you don't know what you're talking or b) you're trolling.

Either way I ain't engaging with you anymore.

Good luck to you.

Podge_irl · 03-09-2015 9:11am

LorMal wrote: »

If we play hoof ball we will get stuffed.

Have you ever watched a World Cup??

"Hoof ball" has won it more than once.

LorMal · 03-09-2015 9:18am

kuang1 wrote: »

Think you've proven beyond all reasonable doubt now that either a) you don't know what you're talking or b) you're trolling.

Either way I ain't engaging with you anymore.

Good luck to you.

Don't be getting upset. Its only a chat about rugby. I don't know anything more or less than anyone else - we are all speculating. I hope we stuff the French.

LorMal · 03-09-2015 9:19am

Podge_irl wrote: »

Have you ever watched a World Cup??

"Hoof ball" has won it more than once.

Yeah - I hope not this time though.

Podge_irl · 03-09-2015 9:25am

LorMal wrote: »

Yeah - I hope not this time though.

I hope whatever style we choose to play wins it to be honest...

I share some reservations about Ireland's playing style in the 6N (though I also think some of the criticisms were overblown). But I really have no time for this whole "oh we'll be lucky to get anything" bollocksology. Ireland are favourites to top the group and they are favourites for a reason.

LorMal · 03-09-2015 9:34am

Podge_irl wrote: »

I hope whatever style we choose to play wins it to be honest...

I share some reservations about Ireland's playing style in the 6N (though I also think some of the criticisms were overblown). But I really have no time for this whole "oh we'll be lucky to get anything" bollocksology. Ireland are favourites to top the group and they are favourites for a reason.

Absolutely. My only point (which seems to be upsetting people for some reason) is that I think we will need to add another dimension to our play. I think France are improving and will be a far better side again by the time we play them.
I worry about kicking away possession to the likes of Huget, Fofana and Nakaitaki. Plus they have the grunt up front to match us.
So, I would hpe we can bring a bit if inventiveness and guile to the party when the game opens up. Otherwise, I think they will beat us.

molloyjh · 03-09-2015 9:53am

LorMal wrote: »

Its all this 'back to back champions having beaten every side bar 1 of the top sides in the world' stuff that gets me. Doesn't matter one iota. If we play hoof ball we will get stuffed.

So facts annoy you is basically what you are saying. Because that's all that sentence is. You seem to think you know better than a coach who has won at least 1 trophy every single season he has been here in Ireland, including those back to back 6 Nations trophies. Something Ireland hasn't done (outright) since the late 40s.

You may not like it but we are winning when it counts. You need to get a handle on the favourites tag. It's not something to be afraid of.

Also I wouldn't worry about kicking down Nakaitakis wing. The guy has been found out time and again positionally. He can and should be targetted in that area because we will get change from it.

rrpc · 03-09-2015 10:23am

LorMal wrote: »

Absolutely. My only point (which seems to be upsetting people for some reason) is that I think we will need to add another dimension to our play. I think France are improving and will be a far better side again by the time we play them.
I worry about kicking away possession to the likes of Huget, Fofana and Nakaitaki. Plus they have the grunt up front to match us.
So, I would hpe we can bring a bit if inventiveness and guile to the party when the game opens up. Otherwise, I think they will beat us.

You're descriptions of our kicking game as "hoofing it" or "kicking away possession" are hugely reductive. Our kicking game has been far more nuanced and accurate than you would have us believe by your choice of words.

We only ever kick to gain both field position and possession. Contestable garryowens, chips over the defence and a kick chase to put the receiver under pressure and turn over ball or get a line out in the opposition half are just some of the kicking tactics we've used.

But not the only tactics. Once we get into the opposition half, we change tack and use mauls, one out runners and loop plays to get around the defence. Never mind the kick to a winger that Madigan and FitzGerald carried out with such accuracy.

The game very seldom 'opens up' against top defences.

JF100 · 03-09-2015 11:37am

I see Scrumley in the IT got the Saturday Team Sheet in time to go to press at 1 in the morning...
JS is very considerate in being able to work to newspaper deadlines.

Pretty much the A1 team I'd say...
Interesting.

LorMal · 03-09-2015 9:42pm

molloyjh wrote: »

So facts annoy you is basically what you are saying. Because that's all that sentence is. You seem to think you know better than a coach who has won at least 1 trophy every single season he has been here in Ireland, including those back to back 6 Nations trophies. Something Ireland hasn't done (outright) since the late 40s.

You may not like it but we are winning when it counts. You need to get a handle on the favourites tag. It's not something to be afraid of.

Also I wouldn't worry about kicking down Nakaitakis wing. The guy has been found out time and again positionally. He can and should be targetted in that area because we will get change from it.

Don't be getting your panties in a bunch there JH. It's alright, Ireland will win the World Cup, okay? Hooray.

molloyjh · 03-09-2015 9:47pm

LorMal wrote: »

Don't be getting your panties in a bunch there JH. It's alright, Ireland will win the World Cup, okay? Hooray.

I'm not getting in any way worked up over this. I think you might be reading a tad too much into all of this.

LorMal · 03-09-2015 9:58pm

molloyjh wrote: »

I'm not getting in any way worked up over this. I think you might be reading a tad too much into all of this.

As I stated a couple of times, I haven't a clue really. Just a punter like everyone else. I have no idea who will win so don't be offended if my opinion differs to yours.
We're all winners:)

molloyjh · 03-09-2015 10:02pm

LorMal wrote: »

As I stated a couple of times, I haven't a clue really. Just a punter like everyone else. I have no idea who will win so don't be offended if my opinion differs to yours.
We're all winners:)

I'm a tough person to offend so you've nothing to worry about there! I just think we're in a good place and shouldn't be afraid to acknowledge that. I do think we need to develop our game a bit as well but we've seen other teams kick their way to World Cups in the past. It doesn't have to be all-singing, all-dancing rugby. As long as we can vary things just enough we are in with a shout. We don't need to reinvent ourselves.

So in other words the truth is in the middle somewhere....

Akrasia · 03-09-2015 10:19pm

molloyjh wrote: »

I'm a tough person to offend so you've nothing to worry about there! I just think we're in a good place and shouldn't be afraid to acknowledge that. I do think we need to develop our game a bit as well but we've seen other teams kick their way to World Cups in the past. It doesn't have to be all-singing, all-dancing rugby. As long as we can vary things just enough we are in with a shout. We don't need to reinvent ourselves.

So in other words the truth is in the middle somewhere....

So, what you're saying is, we're definitely going to win??? awesome (:

The Rape of Lucretia · 03-09-2015 10:26pm

LorMal wrote: »

Its all this 'back to back champions having beaten every side bar 1 of the top sides in the world' stuff that gets me. Doesn't matter one iota. If we play hoof ball we will get stuffed.

Hoof ball wins. The more we hoof the more we win.

You need to have hoofers though to get in into the opposition half. But we have them.
And you need hoof retrivers. We have them in spades.
And a defense that gives nothing away easily and holds territory. We have that too.

So looking good for us. And its no accident Joe is racking up the trophies. Passing, jinking, speedie backs are totally passé at this stage and of interest only to rugby romantics or retro afficionados. Loping second rows roaming upfield, and quick offloading and opposition halfback terrorising backrows are old school.

Joe knows what wins games, and eschews all that self indulgent rugby a surprising number of modern professional coaches are still suckered into in devising their gameplans.

Thats why we will win the world cup. He knows it himself too. Witness his famed unerring attention to detail and see who was ticking the Irish citizenship box yesterday just to have everything in order.

LorMal · 03-09-2015 11:43pm

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Hoof ball wins. The more we hoof the more we win.

You need to have hoofers though to get in into the opposition half. But we have them.
And you need hoof retrivers. We have them in spades.
And a defense that gives nothing away easily and holds territory. We have that too.

So looking good for us. And its no accident Joe is racking up the trophies. Passing, jinking, speedie backs are totally passé at this stage and of interest only to rugby romantics or retro afficionados. Loping second rows roaming upfield, and quick offloading and opposition halfback terrorising backrows are old school.

Joe knows what wins games, and eschews all that self indulgent rugby a surprising number of modern professional coaches are still suckered into in devising their gameplans.

Thats why we will win the world cup. He knows it himself too. Witness his famed unerring attention to detail and see who was ticking the Irish citizenship box yesterday just to have everything in order.

Are NZ playing hoofball now too? (Genuine question - haven't seen them for a while)

Flipper22 · 04-09-2015 12:28am

LorMal wrote: »

Are NZ playing hoofball now too? (Genuine question - haven't seen them for a while)

Yes quite a bit. They certainly don't play in their own half.

To be honest I think the differences in gameplan among the top teams are quite a bit overblown in terms of the whole 'not playing much rugby' thing. If a team is dominating the collisions and winning the breakdown it's easy to look good in attack.

Yeah_Right · 04-09-2015 12:48am

LorMal wrote: »

Are NZ playing hoofball now too? (Genuine question - haven't seen them for a while)

They do kick a lot. In the last couple of seasons I think they kicked more than their opponents and often had less possession. A lot of their attack came from turnovers and exploiting space with quick ball. Very little from first phase possesSion. I can't remember where I read these stats but I remember reading them.

ionadnapokot · 04-09-2015 10:34am

Yeah_Right wrote: »

They do kick a lot. In the last couple of seasons I think they kicked more than their opponents and often had less possession. A lot of their attack came from turnovers and exploiting space with quick ball. Very little from first phase possesSion. I can't remember where I read these stats but I remember reading them.

NZ, Aus, SA and now Argentina are all focused on the scoring potential of turnovers. Most of their turnover tries come within two phases of the turnover.

I think this excellent piece by MK highlights how far Ireland have to go.
http://www.the42.ie/analysis-south-africa-new-zealand-turnover-tries-2015-2237913-Jul2015/
I can only remember one turnover try (excl interceptions) scored by Ireland under JS. Sextons 2nd in Paris (3 phases. Trimble made a hames of the finish).
However, set piece is still the best form of attack. But rarely will it result in a 1st phase score.

Where the tries are scored from in the Super Rugby. Unsurprisingly all the NZ teams top of the turnover conversion table.
http://en.espn.co.uk/super-rugby-2015/rugby/story/261417.html
http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugby/news/stats-feature-where-do-tries-originate/

jacothelad · 04-09-2015 12:32pm

penybont exile wrote: »

Ireland woulld be my preference for the semi if we're good enough to get there.

Not likely to happen though ...... QF exit to the AB's beckons.

So you think Wales are going to get to the QF and somehow play the ABs?........Optimist....have you been in the Severn Arms again?.:D

JF100 · 04-09-2015 2:23pm

I believe this reference is in fact to Ireland...
i.e. a loss to France in the Group stages would result in a QF with NZ (and a probable loss ... again).

If the reference is to Wales however; then it is factually incorrect in that NZ and Wales are on opposite sides of the draw and would not meet until a semi-final at the earliest...

kuang1 · 04-09-2015 2:27pm

JF100 wrote: »

I believe this reference is in fact to Ireland...
i.e. a loss to France in the Group stages would result in a QF with NZ (and a probable loss ... again).

If the reference is to Wales however; then it is factually incorrect in that NZ and Wales are on opposite sides of the draw and would not meet until a semi-final at the earliest...

Er...I think that's why the joke was made!

blackcard · 05-09-2015 3:35pm

If the first half against England is part of a masterplan to make other countries think we are one dimensional and poor, the plan is working brilliantly

LorMal · 06-09-2015 8:52am

blackcard wrote: »

If the first half against England is part of a masterplan to make other countries think we are one dimensional and poor, the plan is working brilliantly

Exactly. I was getting derided on here for suggesting we are one dimensional. Our kick chase was poor and we didn't have anything else yesterday.
Hope that's the end of 'back to back 6n, 2nd in the world' nonsense. There is a lot to work on.
Sexton looks nothing like his pre-France self, our centre partnership is unconvincing, POC Toner POM SOB look unfit, hoof ball is predicable and ineffective against good teams, our line speed was pedestrian, and the no offload strategy means our attack is blunt.
Italy could beat us yet.

LorMal · 06-09-2015 8:54am

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Hoof ball wins. The more we hoof the more we win.

You need to have hoofers though to get in into the opposition half. But we have them.
And you need hoof retrivers. We have them in spades.
And a defense that gives nothing away easily and holds territory. We have that too.

So looking good for us. And its no accident Joe is racking up the trophies. Passing, jinking, speedie backs are totally passé at this stage and of interest only to rugby romantics or retro afficionados. Loping second rows roaming upfield, and quick offloading and opposition halfback terrorising backrows are old school.

Joe knows what wins games, and eschews all that self indulgent rugby a surprising number of modern professional coaches are still suckered into in devising their gameplans.

Thats why we will win the world cup. He knows it himself too. Witness his famed unerring attention to detail and see who was ticking the Irish citizenship box yesterday just to have everything in order.

Hmmm....

kuang1 · 06-09-2015 9:01am

LorMal wrote: »

Exactly. I was getting derided on here for suggesting we are one dimensional. Our kick chase was poor and we didn't have anything else yesterday.
Hope that's the end of 'back to back 6n, 2nd in the world' nonsense. There is a lot to work on.
Sexton looks nothing like his pre-France self, our centre partnership is unconvincing, POC Toner POM SOB look unfit, hoof ball is predicable and ineffective against good teams, our line speed was pedestrian, and the no offload strategy means our attack is blunt.
Italy could beat us yet.

Ah there you are.

LorMal · 06-09-2015 9:08am

kuang1 wrote: »

Ah there you are.

Talking to me again?

kuang1 · 06-09-2015 9:21am

LorMal wrote: »

Talking to me again?

Sure!:)
Chips on shoulders never good for anyone concerned.
But you're gonna keep it real right?!

LorMal · 06-09-2015 9:53am

kuang1 wrote: »

Sure!:)
Chips on shoulders never good for anyone concerned.
But you're gonna keep it real right?!

So, I really hope we can find form. I don't care what anyone says, we need to be playing better than this at this stage if we are to give this competition a good go.

For me, Sexton looks way off. And the aimless kicking is beyond irritating at this stage. England were gaining territory every time we allowed them to run at us yesterday. So, we kept giving them the ball to have another go!

irishbucsfan · 06-09-2015 10:13am

LorMal wrote: »

So, I really hope we can find form. I don't care what anyone says, we need to be playing better than this at this stage if we are to give this competition a good go.

For me, Sexton looks way off. And the aimless kicking is beyond irritating at this stage. England were gaining territory every time we allowed them to run at us yesterday. So, we kept giving them the ball to have another go!

And our try came from a great box kick that allowed us to turn over the ball on the half way line and put them under pressure deep in their own half.

It's not the face we're kicking that's the problem, it was just the execution and timing of it. We need to fix that, not move away from the kicking game.

rrpc · 06-09-2015 10:21am

LorMal wrote: »

So, I really hope we can find form. I don't care what anyone says, we need to be playing better than this at this stage if we are to give this competition a good go.

For me, Sexton looks way off. And the aimless kicking is beyond irritating at this stage. England were gaining territory every time we allowed them to run at us yesterday. So, we kept giving them the ball to have another go!

A lot of players looked off. Dave Kearney being the standout to measure others by. Rory Best made some huge howlers in defence including deserting his pillar position at a ruck and allowing Tom Woods (I think) gallop through the gap he left. Conor Murray looked slow and hesitant and his box kicking was poor (the kick chase was poor too). You could blame Sexton for passes that bounced off the recipients but could blame those players for not reading the pass either. Close in passes need to be sharp to beat the intercept, so blame should be spread equally there.

There's been a lot of talk about Joe not wanting to show his hand in these warm-ups which is sensible, but what do the players do when they're on the pitch and trying not to give anything away? It must be very difficult to try and attack with nothing in the locker other than the most basic of moves.

LorMal · 06-09-2015 1:36pm

What do people think is happening? Ireland are keeping tons of secret moves up our sleeves while the other teams haven't thought about that and are naively giving these matches everything?

In regards to our kicking game, I would argue that's it's not just poor execution, it's also a fundamental flaw in strategy.
Yes, many of the kicks yesterday were too long and incontestable. However, there were a number of times where very hard won posisession was glibly given away by a clueless attack who couldn't think of anything to do so just kicked aimlessly.

aimee1 · 06-09-2015 1:50pm

LorMal wrote: »

What do people think is happening? Ireland are keeping tons of secret moves up our sleeves while the other teams haven't thought about that and are naively giving these matches everything?

wales and italy looked crap last night. France just looked like france of the last 4 years and scotland looked decent, will be interesting to see how their group pans out.

I dont know what to make of england. They look really good in patches and really ordinary in others.

Ireland just looked inaccurate the last few weeks which kills us given how we like to play. But there is positives in some aspects too

Eugene Norman · 06-09-2015 1:56pm

LorMal wrote: »

What do people think is happening? Ireland are keeping tons of secret moves up our sleeves while the other teams haven't thought about that and are naively giving these matches everything?

In regards to our kicking game, I would argue that's it's not just poor execution, it's also a fundamental flaw in strategy.
Yes, many of the kicks yesterday were too long and incontestable. However, there were a number of times where very hard won posisession was glibly given away by a clueless attack who couldn't think of anything to do so just kicked aimlessly.

I agree with your assessment of the game yesterday but it could well be that Joe told people to not get injured first and win second. England have a tough enough game to start the World Cup and then have to play wales and Australia. Our toughest game before France is the Italy game which would be the easiest 6N game, although we could always lose it of course.

So we don't have to be where they are.

rrpc · 06-09-2015 2:08pm

LorMal wrote: »

What do people think is happening? Ireland are keeping tons of secret moves up our sleeves while the other teams haven't thought about that and are naively giving these matches everything?

Well Wales have never made any secret of their game plan and that hasn't changed. England, much like Wales don't do subtlety unless it's Courtney Lawes trying a 'subtle' elbow to the head. France generally spend so much time trying to pick a team that they don't have much for anything else. Italy are still working on the basics and Scotland are so pleased to have a good coach they want to use everything new they've learned now.

LorMal · 06-09-2015 2:09pm

Eugene Norman wrote: »

I agree with your assessment of the game yesterday but it could well be that Joe told people to not get injured first and win second. England have a tough enough game to start the World Cup and then have to play wales and Australia. Our toughest game before France is the Italy game which would be the easiest 6N game, although we could always lose it of course.

So we don't have to be where they are.

I appreciate that. But then England would have been avoiding injury too, especially given their schedule.
It was not the execution that really worries me, it is the lack of a coherent attacking strategy.
We don't offload - so what do we do instead against a solid defence ?

LorMal · 06-09-2015 2:18pm

aimee1 wrote: »

wales and italy looked crap last night. France just looked like france of the last 4 years and scotland looked decent, will be interesting to see how their group pans out.

I dont know what to make of england. They look really good in patches and really ordinary in others.

Ireland just looked inaccurate the last few weeks which kills us given how we like to play. But there is positives in some aspects too

I think England are coming good at the right time. They spent a long long time deciding on their centre pairing and their wingers - all looked excellent yesterday. I expect them to make the final.

rrpc · 06-09-2015 2:20pm

LorMal wrote: »

I appreciate that. But then England would have been avoiding injury too, especially given their schedule.

But it's England's schedule that would have had them push much harder in that game than us. Clearly they don't want injuries, but they don't have time to get up to full speed in the pool stages like we do. They didn't strike me as holding anything back in the contact areas. They had a lot of things to fix from the previous game too like their lineout.

LorMal wrote: »

It was not the execution that really worries me, it is the lack of a coherent attacking strategy.
We don't offload - so what do we do instead against a solid defence ?

We've used set piece moves in the past and we showed one in the try that POC scored. There have also been backline moves we used in the 6N to mixed effect (Murray Kinsella covered some of them at the time) and presumably we have more of those in the tank.

aimee1 · 06-09-2015 2:35pm

LorMal wrote: »

I think England are coming good at the right time. They spent a long long time deciding on their centre pairing and their wingers - all looked excellent yesterday. I expect them to make the final.

if they can spend more time being good then ordinary in the big games they will do well. I still think their lineout has the potential to cost them though

molloyjh · 06-09-2015 3:54pm

LorMal wrote: »

Exactly. I was getting derided on here for suggesting we are one dimensional. Our kick chase was poor and we didn't have anything else yesterday.
Hope that's the end of 'back to back 6n, 2nd in the world' nonsense. There is a lot to work on.
Sexton looks nothing like his pre-France self, our centre partnership is unconvincing, POC Toner POM SOB look unfit, hoof ball is predicable and ineffective against good teams, our line speed was pedestrian, and the no offload strategy means our attack is blunt.
Italy could beat us yet.

I'm sorry but this is just reactionary nonsense. And please let me explain exactly why.

In all our other competitive games Ireland have shown at least 1 of 2 things. The first is strike moves. Look at Kearneys try against England in Twickenham 18 months ago or SOBs try against Scotland this year. Ireland often have set moves that they go to that are practised to within an inch of their lives. These don't have to be ball in hand moves either. Bowes try against SA is another example of a strike move. Something pre-planned and delivered with accuracy that the lads can pull out of the locker and execute well.

The second thing we've seen from Ireland regularly is an identification of opposition weaknesses to be exploited. Look at Wales in 2014 where we used a very specific type of kicking game to totally nullify them for 80 minutes. Or the France game this year where we clearly targeted Nacatacis wing because he was (and still is) defensively suspect, particularly in terms of positioning. When watching games you can often clearly see exactly what it is that Joe and the other coaches have spotted and decided to target.

These have both been regular and critical parts to Irish rugby under Joe Schmidt. We saw neither in the warm ups (2 simple line-out moves aside). The reason we didn't see them wasn't because the coaches suddenly forgot how to or were unable to come up with them. We didn't see them because the coaches didn't want us to see them. The purpose of the warm-ups was not to "shock and awe" people with our wonderful rugby skills, make a statement to the world that we're here to win it and show our hand while doing so. It was to get guys game time and improve their match fitness. And from that perspective (injuries to TOD and Trimble aside) we got pretty much exactly what we wanted from the games.

We were very one dimensional in the last few weeks because we wanted to be one dimensional. Joe himself prior to kick-off yesterday pretty much said himself that the result didn't really matter and that it was about guys putting in a performance. And as bad as the first half was there were still improvements to be seen over the previous 2 games (Bowe excluded). And the second half saw us step it up again. With 4 weeks to go to the Italy game we're not in a bad place.

I'd be incredibly worried if we continued on in the second half the same way we did in the first. Or if we were attempting a load of set plays and they just weren't coming off. But neither are the case. If we struggle against Canada and/or Romania then maybe I'll start to worry. Until then we're doing ok. We have a nice few weeks to gradually ramp up to the France game (the way the fixtures have fallen for us are perfect in that regard). I'm in no way discouraged by the last few weeks at all because it seems very clear to me that we have a hell of a lot left in the tank.

Is Joe Schmidt concealing his hand?

Comments