Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

MidMan25 wrote: »

I'm living in the area of highest winds a few miles from the coast :eek:

My parents have a mobile home in East Cork. I'm not liking those bright colours in that area.

RTE Weather for Monday:

Potential high impact, keep up to date with forecasts. Sensible warning.

If a level 3 warning is issued, do schools close? It wouldn't have been something I had to think about previous years....

Cat-2 hurricane now

Doltanian wrote: »

RTE don't want to worry people and rightly so and it won't be until Saturday until we get a clearer picture and it might swing out into the Atlantic towards Iceland. Remember Ireland is a tiny country and as we saw with Hurricane Irma it changed course slightly as it closed in of Florida, that small change of direction would be enough to miss our small island. If it strikes straight on then Kerry and Cork will get an awful battering and it will nearly certainly take lives.

I'm taking no chances and everything likely to become a projectile will be secured tomorrow by me, I lost a farm shed in Storm Darwin back in early 2014 which cost €15,000 to replace.

oh that sounds like a bit of painful open bank account surgery. My parents are away for the weekend so I might pay a visit to my grandmothers as she has a huge garden and some sheds just asking to turn into projectiles.

pad199207 wrote: »

As of the 5pm advisory Ophelia is now upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

NHC giving it an easterly shift and a substantial upgrade. Shows it as a Hurricane over land in Ireland.

The timing of this is incredible !

A category 2 hurricane in the eastern Atlantic heading towards Europe,it sounds like a fantasy.Incredible.

Fantastic Detail here by Forecaster Zelinsky.



Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Ophelia's structure has continued to improve during the afternoon. The eye of the hurricane has cleared and is surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -55 deg C.

Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and the UW-CIMSS ADT have increased accordingly, and on that basis the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt.

Ophelia is nearly stationary, which could cause the hurricane to stop strengthening, or even weaken slightly during the next 12 to 24 hours due to upwelling effects. That said, the intensity guidance
is in good agreement that Ophelia will remain at hurricane strength for the next 48 h while it remains in a fairly unstable, low-shear
environment.

Beyond that time, extratropical transition will begin,
though baroclinic forcing will likely keep post-tropical Ophelia near hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the UK.

The new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is generally close to the multi-model intensity consensus.

Although Ophelia is currently stationary, a mid-latitude trough should cause it to begin moving toward the east-northeast within about 24 hours. The cyclone will then accelerate on that heading in
the faster mid-latitude westerly flow ahead of the trough, before turning toward the northeast around day 3 as extratropical transition occurs and the hurricane becomes entangled with the
southern extent of the trough.

Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 72 h, and all of the dynamical guidance is tightly clustered through this period.

The model spread increases substantially at 96 h and beyond.

As a post-tropical cyclone, Ophelia will continue to interact with the southern extent of the trough, and should turn toward the northeast as a result of this
interaction. However, the details of this turn vary greatly from model to model.

The new NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
toward the east at this time range, closer to the UKMET and ECMWF models, as well as the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.

While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia south and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores by Sunday due to an approaching front.

In addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom.

While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas, as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.

Residents in Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia for the next several days.

For more information on local impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 30.4N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 31.0N 34.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 31.9N 32.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

squarecircles wrote: »

A category 2 hurricane in the eastern Atlantic heading towards Europe,it sounds like a fantasy.Incredible.

It's already increased by >10mph over and above the max forecast strength. Not to sensationalise - but if it were to do the same again and gain another 10mph it becomes a Category 3 Major Hurricane.

For earlier today:

cherryghost wrote: »

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 30.3N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

A couple of things I'm wondering.

Movement is stationary, and MT alluded to this. Does that increase the chances of it turning back west instead? And if not, does more strengthening now (presumably because it's sticking around longer over warmer water) make it any more or less likely to reach us with a higher residual strength despite the inevitable weakening as it moves north?

Also looks like although a H is displayed on the NHC chart it's a hurricane-force extra-tropical cyclone. Of course as it's so much further north this is important because it has no potential to really strengthen any further, in the moment it will make feck all difference. It's a hurricane in all but name on that chart.

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.