Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

Mortelaro wrote: »

I'd imagine we'll have widespread cold and snow from the east and northeast before the new year into January maybe,then mild thereafter
If it's your thing,enjoy that cold spell,it'll be 2 weeks plus in length I'd expect which might include xmas
Just guessing that on the strat runs and that its random affects after last year will see NW Europe and into our islands very cold winds this time instead
One to watch anyway

2010 called, they want their forecast back.

I would love to hope you're right, but given how the country shuts down over the tiniest flake of snow, I dread to think what might happen if this came to pass.

After a long wet spell comes the inevitable dry settled and anticyclonic spell.
I was hoping the high would be centred in a favourable position but YET another 'winter eater' anticyclone is looking a certainty now.
I would be inclined to write off December and at least the first half of January at this stage.
I know I'll get the 'how can you write off winter before it's started' reaction but a long dry and settled spell ALWAYS comes after a long wet spell and it ain't looking good folks.

The jetstream profile going into December makes for grim viewing. I can't see it being settled for long. Having said that UK Met office does not see it being all that mild in the first half of December:



28th November to December 7th

Thursday looks to be unsettled with areas of rain or showers initially. The rain may become lighter and patchier later allowing for some bright spells to develop. Temperatures around average in the south, but beginning to turn colder in the north. Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could turn wintry even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The beginning of December looks to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

December 8th to 22nd

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

Graces7 wrote: »

Cold. Only word that fits. I had an early errand, as light was flowering rose-gold, and even the cat refused to follow. He who loves walks. Should have heeded him

Bitter cold along the shore line. By the time I turned for home ( thoughts of hot coffee..) I had lost my hands. Gone...

Still, chill, iced air. The ocean sky had greyed over when home reached out to embrace me.

Clear now and chill. Lovely day indeed. But icy hearted

West mayo offshore island.

Where were you when I was doing my leaving cert English ?

Long range/seasonal model forecasts are fun to look at but are essentially crap, and I include the ECMWF output in this. Great ensemble model up to about 12 or 15 days but anything after that, useless, and more especially for the N. Atlantic & Europe region. I really wonder why they, or any other NWP output organisation bother spending money on, running and releasing such useless data.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Long range/seasonal model forecasts are fun to look at but are essentially crap, and I include the ECMWF output in this. Great ensemble model up to about 12 or 15 days but anything after that, useless, and more especially for the N. Atlantic & Europe region. I really wonder why they, or any other NWP output organisation bother spending money on, running and releasing such useless data.

Demand, people/industry want those forecasts and they are valuable whether right or wrong.

There are lots of people making huge money on these forecasts even though their skill beyond week 3 is minimal.

DOCARCH wrote: »

I'd be happy enough at 10 seconds!

At this point all I want is the sunshine at the end of the video

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Demand, people/industry want those forecasts and they are valuable whether right or wrong.

There are lots of people making huge money on these forecasts even though their skill beyond week 3 is minimal.

Just to add.
You have to keep outputting them. That's how they progress. The more time it gets outputted the more a machine can learn and try amend. If you stop, well then it can't get better.

My 2 cents

Logan Roy wrote: »

They don't have to be published for the public to view though.

Yes they don't. But why not. Take them like a grain of salt or ignore them. Also the more eyes on them being publicly published, the more input people could help. Whether its in the public domain is irrelevant. The papers will make up their own weather then. Lol
I don't understand them nor do want too. But as I said just a thought.

highdef wrote: »

I'm going on holiday a week before Christmas so a nice cold and snowy spell just before that would make holidays seem all the better.... Bring it on! Knowing my luck it'll get delayed and there'll be the blizzard of the century the day after I go away.

We're all banking on your luck for the winter now highdef.
Don't let us down!!

Clear skies and a touch of frost still about the place in central Mayo. Third respectable day in a row down these parts. The East certainly seems to have been drawing the short straw weather wise in recent weeks.

Had wet snow in North Kildare around dawn this morning. Was very surprised as I was expecting frost this morning.