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By-Elections 2019

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    #62
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I'm from DMW and the result is as expected. North Clondalkin has had a good turnout for several years now - hence Gino being elected. Turnout was low across the board this time, but no lower in the North Clondalkin area. And Ward has had a huge presence in the area since he was co-opted a few years ago. He's like a local celebrity at this stage.

    Gogarty is well liked in Lucan and Palmerstown and is very active as a councillor.

    I personally was surprised that FG selected Higgins. She is popular in Clondalkin village according to the LE results, but she's unknown in the rest of the constituency and actually very unlikable. They need a Lucan based candidate to pick up the big FG vote there I think. I think Lucan people want a Lucan TD now more than a FG TD even if FG voters, so they chose Gogarty. FG spent years building up William Lavelle then he disappeared, but Vicky Casserly is popular locally and I think she would do better than Higgins if they built her profile.


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    #63
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,059 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

    Based on what?:confused: Byrne was odds-on favourite for weeks, IIRC every pundit I read predicted he would take the seat


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    #64
    Galwayguy35
    Registered Users Posts: 16,328 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Was surprised at how well the Greens did in Dublin Fingal.


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    #65
    strandroad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,676 ✭✭✭strandroad


    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    Was surprised at how well the Greens did in Dublin Fingal.

    Dublin's choking and FG doesn't care. You want someone to defend Luas Finglas when they try to shelve it to indulge some NIMBYs.


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    #66
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Good day for Greens FF and SF. OK day for Labour
    Bad day for FG. Especially Fitzgerald`s seat going to SF has to really sting.
    Murphy coming third after FF and Labour has a bit of a sting as well.

    Be interesting to see if they will even run Higgins and Murphy in the GE


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    #67
    Galwayguy35
    Registered Users Posts: 16,328 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    strandroad wrote: »
    Dublin's choking and FG doesn't care. You want someone to defend Luas Finglas when they try to shelve it to indulge some NIMBYs.

    I don't really see how the Greens will solve the problems you've outlined there.


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    #68
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,248 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    Not surprised at that one at all, but I honestly thought Higgins basically was basically a formality, (leo won't be happy at the shinners stealing his thunder) and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

    Reilly surely has the message by this stage that he's a political has been.

    Not a bit surprised at all. Once there was a low turnout, FG were always going to suffer.

    Ward got the O’Broin vote, so meaningless for the General Election, O’Sullivan took the Kelliher seat so no change in that Cork constituency in the general election.

    Big one was O’Brien in Fingal, sets the Greens up for the main event.


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    #69
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 40,880 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    For Forks Sake wrote: »
    11th time's the charm.

    https://electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?ID=4218

    He has run in more than that

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #70
    winter2019
    Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭winter2019


    The chickens are starting to come home to roost for FG. They’ll get wiped out whenever the next general election happens. I think the Maria Bailey incident, and the way Varadkar tried to sweep it under the carpet was the final straw for a lot of people.


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    #71
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    I don't really see how the Greens will solve the problems you've outlined there.

    The Irish Greens solution to everything is slap on extra taxes and ban stuff. Virtually zero positive policies that will work for the ordinary joe soap. Can’t fathom why anyone wastes a vote on them


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    #72
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    winter2019 wrote: »
    The chickens are starting to come home to roost for FG. They’ll get wiped out whenever the next general election happens. I think the Maria Bailey incident, and the way Varadkar tried to sweep it under the carpet was the final straw for a lot of people.

    I think there’s much bigger issues than Bailey tbh, she’s merely a symptom of their wider disconnect. Last budget for example was very disappointing for taxpayers as Leo had promised to prioritise work and make it pay


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    #73
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    I think Varadkar is both politically naive and arrogant and not a good leader electioneer as we’ve seen. Lacks any common touch whatsoever and too concerned with pandering to the PC brigade rather than the ordinary taxpayer who keep the whole show on the road


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    #74
    Tea Shock
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 345 ✭✭Tea Shock


    FGs problems started when they elected Varadkar as party leader. As soon as Kenny said he was going, the parliamentary party members fell over each other trying to be the first to kiss Varadkar’s arse. By the time the opinion polls cane out showing Coveney was more popular with the public, they couldn’t row back. Coveney was also far more popular with ordinary FG members but the weighting’s the parliamentary members votes got screwed him up. Varadkar was the wrong choice. It’s as simple as that!


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    #75
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Tea Shock wrote: »
    FGs problems started when they elected Varadkar as party leader. As soon as Kenny said he was going, the parliamentary party members fell over each other trying to be the first to kiss Varadkar’s arse. By the time the opinion polls cane out showing Coveney was more popular with the public, they couldn’t row back. Coveney was also far more popular with ordinary FG members but the weighting’s the parliamentary members votes got screwed him up. Varadkar was the wrong choice. It’s as simple as that!

    I think he’ll lose the next election (a certainty if based on today) and they’ll remove Varadkar. I think he’s been a failure and has had ample time. He’s reasonable on Brexit but then again he hasn’t had much real personal control of the circumstances. Some of his diplomatic skills are lacking majorly too. He’s always only comfortable with fellow liberal types like Trudeau and Macron, not good elsewhere


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    #76
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 40,880 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    She would likely get returned in the general election next year- if FG let her run

    She says she will be running in the general election. I suspect FG might try to dump her. Charlie Flanagan and Leo Varadkar already putting some distance.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #77
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,059 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    She says she will be running in the general election. I suspect FG might try to dump her.

    They have two sitting TDs and would be very unlikely to be taking a third seat. I don't know enough about internal Wexford affairs to say whether she would be likely to displace one if them but the incumbent has an inbuilt advantage in these situations.


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    #78
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    She says she will be running in the general election. I suspect FG might try to dump her. Charlie Flanagan and Leo Varadkar already putting some distance.

    Verona wasn’t the problem- she polled far far higher than any of the other turnips they ran in Friday. They’re deluded if they think her comments had anything to do with her not winning- it’s annoyance with the government that’s far far deeper. Leo and Flanagan were woeful throughout this by election. Like rabbits caught in headlights.
    As for locally I think Verona will rightly feel like she was thrown under a bus by PC FG HQ and I think may run independent where she’ll be much freer to speak her and address the people’s real concerns without party shackles. Kehoe and Darcy certainly won’t want her threatening their patch as there’s not really 3 FG seats in WX


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    #79
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    road_high wrote: »
    The Irish Greens solution to everything is slap on extra taxes and ban stuff. Virtually zero positive policies that will work for the ordinary joe soap. Can’t fathom why anyone wastes a vote on them

    Yeah if the recent (unmerited) media love in has shown anything it's that they don't really have any new or actually tangiable ideas. Wouldn't waste a vote on them, I get taxed enough.

    Unless of course you are a wolf


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    #80
    Galwayguy35
    Registered Users Posts: 16,328 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.


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    #81
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.
    One seat doesn't make an election! Their average numbers suggest they won't be. Turnout was really poor and it was just a single seat competition.


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    #82
    Augme
    Registered Users Posts: 5,204 ✭✭✭Augme


    I think Fianna fail will be the big winners in the next election, and the greens. They will both take advantage of the drop in support for Fianna gael.


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    #83
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

    Lol. No! By elections are completely different as you have the full party vote access to a single candidate ie Obroins personal vote. It won’t happen next time- running two is very risky as you could end up with zero seats


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    #84
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Augme wrote: »
    I think Fianna fail will be the big winners in the next election, and the greens. They will both take advantage of the drop in support for Fianna gael.
    None of that has happened yet if you follow polls. FF may turn out to be the biggest party, but not big winners and if the Greens get 6 seats that will be huge.


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    #85
    Horsebox9000
    Registered Users Posts: 367 ✭✭Horsebox9000


    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

    Hahahahaha


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    #86
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    Galwayguy35 wrote: »
    SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

    I hardly think so. Even in DMW where they won, they only increased their vote share by 1 3%. There was already a big SF vote in the area - Eoin O'Broin topped the poll and was elected on the first count in 2016. Nothing has changed at all here and I would see no great gains for SF based on the result here. I find it really difficult to fathom that commentators didn't see this coming as the most likely result, rather than some unexpected upset.


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    #87
    171170
    Closed Accounts Posts: 321 ✭✭171170


    Jermaine Nutritious Mourner wrote: »
    I hardly think so. Even in DMW where they won, they only increased their vote share by 1 3%. There was already a big SF vote in the area - Eoin O'Broin topped the poll and was elected on the first count in 2016. Nothing has changed at all here and I would see no great gains for SF based on the result here. I find it really difficult to fathom that commentators didn't see this coming as the most likely result, rather than some unexpected upset.

    Yep. And the effect that Gerry Adams has on voters in sink areas of a constituency like Dublin West has to be seen to be believed! Seemingly he canvassed selected areas of the constituency in recent days. The only trick that SF missed was getting Conor McGregor to join the canvass!


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    #88
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jermaine Nutritious Mourner wrote: »
    I hardly think so. Even in DMW where they won, they only increased their vote share by 1 3%. There was already a big SF vote in the area - Eoin O'Broin topped the poll and was elected on the first count in 2016. Nothing has changed at all here and I would see no great gains for SF based on the result here. I find it really difficult to fathom that commentators didn't see this coming as the most likely result, rather than some unexpected upset.


    Eoin O`Broin did top the poll in 2016 with 22.69% but SF only ran one candidate whereas FG ran two and got 26.37% of the vote so on those figures and it being Frances Fitzgerald`s and SF not having performed well in the local elections, I can see how commentators believed it was FG`s seat to lose.


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    #89
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    171170 wrote: »
    Yep. And the effect that Gerry Adams has on voters in sink areas of a constituency like Dublin West has to be seen to be believed! Seemingly he canvassed selected areas of the constituency in recent days. The only trick that SF missed was getting Conor McGregor to join the canvass!

    Mary Lou desperately needed a win and the kitchen sink and more was thrown at it- did they run limos to the polling stations I wonder?


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    #90
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Eoin O`Broin did top the poll in 2016 with 22.69% but SF only ran one candidate whereas FG ran two and got 26.37% of the vote so on those figures and it being Frances Fitzgerald`s and SF not having performed well in the local elections, I can see how commentators believed it was FG`s seat to lose.
    To an extent but she is down to run in the GE, so this was a test run and she did OK. Not sure what you can make of it, as a GE has a whole other dynamic. O'Broin and probably Curran to get back in but after that it's guesswork. Gogarty, Higgins and Ward would all hope to figure and Kenny would hope to keep his seat. Can't really see SF being able to hold two seats though in a 4 seater off their numbers.


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    #91
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I think it's FF who should be most worried in DMW. Their vote disappeared completely. Yes, Curran would attract more votes than Moynihan, but where did the core FF votes disappear to? I think SF would have a chance of taking a second seat if they can target Gino Kenny's vote with Mark Ward, but it would be risky to run two. Right now North Clondalkin has two TDs in the Dáil, and I don't think that's sustainable - in a full GE it would be one or the other.


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