By-Elections 2019

Muahahaha

With Clare Daly, Mick Wallace, Billy Kelleher and Francis Fitzgerald all gone off to Europe there are four by-elections coming up, expected to be held in November.

Dublin Fingal sees the party of alleged insurance fraud throw up an old favourite who wants to make a come back to the trough- Dr.James Reilly- who'll no doubt be hoping that his parish pump antics of opening primary care health centres in his constituency against HSE advice will curry favour with the voters. Clare Daly has yet to announce if her group will run anyone but rumours are rife. Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee is on the FF ticket. James Reilly topped the poll in this constituency in 2011 before voters realised he was plain incompetent and dumped him in 2016. So will be hoping the constituency is suffering from collective amnesia and votes him in again.

Dublin Mid-West sees even more attempts to return to the trough, this time by 'Independent Green', chart topping pop star and former TD Paul Gogarty as well as the former Labour TD Joanna Tuffy. FG are expected to run Cllr.Emer Higgins ,Soc Dems has Annmarie McNally with FF unannounced so far.

Cork North central looks like it will be a straight shoot out between FF Councillor Padraig o'Sullivan and FG Senator Colm Burke with o'Sullivan expected to benefit massively from Billy Kellehers vote.

Wexford looks like another straight FF-FG battle with FG running Verona Murphy and FF Malcolm Byrne.

Then finally we have the announcement today that Gemma o'Doherty intends to run too, she has yet to announce which constituency but where ever it is it will be interesting to see if her brand of racist politics gains any traction.

buried

Don't agree with sitting TD's being able to run in elections for the European parliament, ditching their seats in the Dail and facilitating these by elections that we, as taxpayers have to ultimately foot the bill for again. Next year another election is going to be held, which we will have to pay for anyways. Its starting to p!ss people off too. Which may actually see the rise in citizens voting for extreme candidates as a protest vote in one of these by elections, needless elections caused by sitting TD's flying off.

TheValeyard

Forgot Clare Daly was gone. Thought things seemed quieter alright.

L1011

Wexford is Byrne's to lose; Cork NC could go anywhere - Kellehers vote has a personal element to it that may not pay down to another FF candidate; Fingal - I wouldn't even try to guess it (Labour are running Duncan Smith, Councillor in Swords, to add to the list of others); Mid West I wouldn't be surprised to see Higgins get it and then lose it at the GE which isn't far off.

Daly or Wallace anointing a "successor" could cause significant disruption in Fingal/Wexford but I can't see either getting in. Wallaces poll topping days in Wexford are long gone and I had him down as losing that seat next time out.

Annasopra

I found it very revealing and interesting looking at the facebook transparency tools snd looking basically at what candidates spent on their facebook advertising. Billy Kelleher spent 160 euro and Malcom Byrne spent 5600 euro. Ouch.

PukkaStukka

I see Lorainne Clifford Lee (FF in Dublin Fingal) is recieving some flack over comments allegedly posted previously on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/LorrCliff/status/1193247550452719617?s=19

Mortelaro

Malcolm Byrne FF will take the wexford seat

Annasopra

PukkaStukka wrote: »

I see Lorainne Clifford Lee (FF in Dublin Fingal) is recieving some flack over comments allegedly posted previously on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/LorrCliff/status/1193247550452719617?s=19

Is Gript supporting Gemma O'Doherty?

PukkaStukka

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Is Gript supporting Gemma O'Doherty?

I've absolutely no idea what to make of this. But some people are quoting actual tweets supposedly made previously. Reading these doesn't look good.

jimgoose

Colm Burke is very popular and he's around a long time - he has as much "personal capital" as Billy Kelleher, if not more. Padraig O'Sullivan isn't as popular as many seem to assume, especially on his home patch of Little Island, which is quite extensively of an FG hue.

ELM327

Is it not a bit mad to run now in the by election with an election on the cards?
Especially for anyone not full time TD/senator already...

keano_afc

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Is Gript supporting Gemma O'Doherty?

Not sure what that has to do with Clifford's tweets?

Muahahaha

ELM327 wrote: »

Is it not a bit mad to run now in the by election with an election on the cards?
Especially for anyone not full time TD/senator already...

The government are legally obliged to hold a by-election within 6 months of a seat being vacated. The courts forced them to change a law after Brian Cowen left a seat empty for over a year to prop up a dying FF government, Pearse Doherty took a High Court case and won and they said 6 months is the max time a seat can be left empty.

Anyway those tweets from Lorraine Clifford Lee arent going to do her any favours. She is 38 now so was 31 at the time she wrote them. Not exactly behaviour you would expect from a mature adult who is a solicitor.

https://twitter.com/paddygalvin11/status/1193657445891137536

https://twitter.com/cyclingbob2507/status/1193484850864545792

https://twitter.com/cyclingbob2507/status/1193484326530363392

https://twitter.com/KF381531171/status/1193545178168082434

King of Kings

Clifford lee is running out my way

I have an immense dislike for her but i would be very much against this notion of hanging people with old tweets...not as if she is calling for the 4th Reich or another final solution.

Something tells me that she wouldnt be against using historic tweets against somebody though..she is of that ilk

Anyway im confused on that one but she isnt getting a sympathy vote.

Itssoeasy

Well cork north central which is the constituency I live in, you'd think colm Burke is in with a big chance and he's been trying for years. I had no idea who the FF candidte is. Never heard of him and was surprised that Kenneth Flynn wasn't the obvious choice for FF but he wasn't. I know of the labour and GP candidates considering they were elected city councillors at the last local elections. Thomas Gould is running for SF and he always polls well enough.

Annasopra

keano_afc wrote: »

Not sure what that has to do with Clifford's tweets?

Gript are the ones initially making a HUGE deal out of them. It seems like John McGuirk and Gemma O'Doherty supporters are behind all the releasing LCLs tweets so I was pondering if there was a link between McGuirk/Gript and O'Doherty

Beechwoodspark

I know of someone who worked in an office LCL worked in a few years ago. They said to me she is totally unsuitable for public representation. “Totally unsuited” was emphasized. Apparently worse to come out as well.

generalgerry

I don't see how Clifford Lee can do anything but resign her position. If this was a conservative this would not even be a discussion, the media would be burying them. Why is she getting a free pass.

ChikiChiki

They are bad for a public representative. A 31 year old wrote them. Wow.

Galwayguy35

I was watching the news earlier and not a peep about this, if someone from the right was using the word knacker and black Brazilian dwarf in tweets they would be hung out to dry.

Ive watch her interviews and she is always pushing the leftie progressive agenda.

It's almost as good as Trudeau getting caught out for going blackface.

ThunbergsAreGo

generalgerry wrote: »

I don't see how Clifford Lee can do anything but resign her position. If this was a conservative this would not even be a discussion, the media would be burying them. Why is she getting a free pass.

What did she say that was so bad? Feel like I am missing something here......

Her previous ridiculous accusations of sexism in the seanad would rule her out for me, but there is feck all in those tweets, especially without context

I took the dwarf comment as how random the bus can be, you can sit beside anyone

expectationlost

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I know of someone who worked in an office LCL worked in a few years ago. They said to me she is totally unsuitable for public representation. “Totally unsuited” was emphasized. Apparently worse to come out as well.

wasn't 2016 the time for anything to come out

Muahahaha

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

I was watching the news earlier and not a peep about this, if someone from the right was using the word knacker and black Brazilian dwarf in tweets they would be hung out to dry.

Ive watch her interviews and she is always pushing the leftie progressive agenda.

It's almost as good as Trudeau getting caught out for going blackface.

It was covered on RTEs 9 o'clock news although they didnt state or show any of the tweets, just reported it had happened and that FF said that there would be no sanction on her

Beechwoodspark

She’s on radio now saying sorry sorry sorry and sorry again. Complete chancer

gmisk

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Gript are the ones initially making a HUGE deal out of them. It seems like John McGuirk and Gemma O'Doherty supporters are behind all the releasing LCLs tweets so I was pondering if there was a link between McGuirk/Gript and O'Doherty

Mcguirk is the editor at Gript I think? but I thought him and GOD had a falling out?
Well I can see a tweet where he is saying her opinions have taken a turn towards crazytown.

It's a rabid pro life site I think linked to youth defence so I wouldn't be arsed reading it.

Muahahaha

Forget Lorraine Clifford-Lee and Verona Murphy when Charlie Keddy is running to be elected in all four by election constituencies





#KeddyIsReady

Mortelaro

That used be the purview of the late great Jim Tallon

https://www.dailyedge.ie/meet-dublin-west-independent-candidate-jim-tallon-as-knight-rider-263382-Oct2011/


https://youtu.be/4rLkbHV3sPo

For Forks Sake

Muahahaha wrote: »

#KeddyIsReady

11th time's the charm.

https://electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?ID=4218

Loafing Oaf

Muahahaha wrote: »

Forget Lorraine Clifford-Lee and Verona Murphy when Charlie Keddy is running to be elected in all four by election constituencies





#KeddyIsReady

I realise this is a somewhat hypothetical scenario, but what would happen if a candidate was elected in more than one constituency. Would he/she represent them all in the Dail?

Muahahaha

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I realise this is a somewhat hypothetical scenario, but what would happen if a candidate was elected in more than one constituency. Would he/she represent them all in the Dail?

No ideas but they would certainly like to take two salaries and two pensions if it did happen :pac:

ELM327

Somehow I don't think Mr Keddy is going to allow us to find out :P

Loafing Oaf

Anyone know if there'll be exit polls for these elections?

NIMAN

People complain non-stop about politicians yet couldn't be ar$ed to go out and vote when they have a chance to have their say.

Salary Negotiator

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Anyone know if there'll be exit polls for these elections?

Would you poll? No one turned up to vote.

Water John

Exit poll would cost too much. We'll know in 24 hours any way.

statesaver

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Would you poll? No one turned up to vote.

Won't take long to count the votes it seems.

Water John

I'd say they'll get the day out of it.

statesaver

Water John wrote: »

I'd say they'll get the day out of it.

On the taxpayers dime, they'll get the day out of it alright

L1011

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I realise this is a somewhat hypothetical scenario, but what would happen if a candidate was elected in more than one constituency. Would he/she represent them all in the Dail?

Select one and vacate the others. Two councillors were elected twice to the same council this year and had to do that

I suspect this could be two FF, one Labour and one Indepdent Green and cause a bit of a worry numbers wise particularly when Dara Murphy actually quits

For Forks Sake

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Anyone know if there'll be exit polls for these elections?

Doubtful.

Sir Oxman

Dublin Mid-west
Ward (SF), Gogarty (International Popstar) and Higgins (FG) appear to be the early frontrunners.

Ward has captured 80%-90% of the North Clondalkin working class area vote on early tallies.

Loafing Oaf

SF's Ward in DMW seems to be the big story so far. Even if he loses out narrowly in the end that would be far better than expected.

L1011

Nobody seemed to predict SFs vote really. Could be 2x FF, Green, SF now or even 2x SF, FF, Green depending on if SF can get transfers in in Cork.

Sir Oxman

Final tallies in CNC and DMW:

CNC
FF 28.19
FG 21.14
SF 19.59
Lab 9.70
Grn 7.25

DMW:
SF 23.9
FG 18.7
Gogarty 12.7
FF 11.8
Timmons 6.9
Lab 6.7
Grn 6.4 (stupid RTE posted a sideways photo of a pie chart so hard to read)

Loafing Oaf

L1011 wrote: »

Nobody seemed to predict SFs vote really. Could be 2x FF, Green, SF now or even 2x SF, FF, Green depending on if SF can get transfers in in Cork.

For Ward anyway, the trick seems to have been mobilising voters in working-class...wards. Course it'll be harder to repeat the trick in a GE, when all sectors are mobilised to some extent

Muahahaha

So Cork called for FF Malcolm Byrne. Dublin mid west looks like it will be close when transfers are distributed

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I realise this is a somewhat hypothetical scenario, but what would happen if a candidate was elected in more than one constituency. Would he/she represent them all in the Dail?

Do we have a test case?:p

Muahahaha wrote: »

So Cork called for FF Malcolm Byrne.

Muahahaha

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Do we have a test case?:p

Whoops, meant Padraig o'Sullivan, wouldnt know what either of them look like if they passed me in the street.

Sinn Feins Mark Ward now looking like causing an upset in Dublin mid west. FG Emer Higgins was supposed to be nailed on for that seat, Leo must not have gotten the vote out.

duffman13

Muahahaha wrote: »

Whoops, meant Padraig o'Sullivan, wouldnt know what either of them look like if they passed me in the street.

Sinn Feins Mark Ward now looking like causing an upset in Dublin mid west. FG Emer Higgins was supposed to be nailed on for that seat, Leo must not have gotten the vote out.

Emer from what I can see went very very big on social media advertising but didn't engage with people after posting a video. A lack of substance from my POV, I went to school with her and would have been tempted to vote there but genuinely don't think she's ready for it yet. Some of the hateful ****e posted was pretty rough on some of the videos.

As for Ward, he's got a good standing in the community and seems to have a hand in everything. He might pull a seat at the next GE at the expense of big Gino Kenny which might not be a bad thing. They'll both be depending on the same vote tbh! Surprised at Gogartys performance too

FG will struggle in the constituency, they'll need to run Emer again IMO, there's no one else there but the higher turnout will work in her favour i think.

Muahahaha

duffman13 wrote: »

Emer from what I can see went very very big on social media advertising but didn't engage with people after posting a video. A lack of substance from my POV, I went to school with her and would have been tempted to vote there but genuinely don't think she's ready for it yet. Some of the hateful ****e posted was pretty rough on some of the videos.

For some bizarre reason she had posters up in Tallaght and Brittas on the Wicklow border, not sure she knows her geography Agree with the hateful bile online, people need to be held to account for that sh1t

Dublin Mid West now called for Sinn Feins Mark Ward. Thats a huge upset in Francis Fitzgeralds old seat and Leo pushing Emer Higgins strongly for the last year. Veronas dogwhistle politics dont seem to be working out in Wexford either.

Sir Oxman

I'd love to see what the turnout was in Nth Clondalkin (Neilstown, Fonthill, Rowlagh etc) compared to the locals and last couple of GE's.
It finally seems a candidate got the historically low working class turnout way up.

Imagine if the working class (I know it's a broad stroke) vote actually turned out in high numbers at every election it would change the political landscape in most urban constituencies at least.