By-Elections 2019

is_that_so wrote: »

To an extent but she is down to run in the GE, so this was a test run and she did OK. Not sure what you can make of it, as a GE has a whole other dynamic. O'Broin and probably Curran to get back in but after that it's guesswork. Gogarty, Higgins and Ward would all hope to figure and Kenny would hope to keep his seat. Can't really see SF being able to hold two seats though in a 4 seater off their numbers.

With over 26% last GE, unless the FG vote collapsed completely Higgins will definitely get a seat. Other than that the only change I would see is SF going after Kenny`s vote and splitting O`Brion`s looking to take two that could leave them with both or none.
Cannot see O`Brion going for that though, so highly likely no change.

brick tamland wrote: »

People reading too much into the results of a few by-elections i reckon.

I doubt political parties, correspondents or anybody pays much attention to a mid term by election, but this is a bit different with it being four constituencies just a few months out from a general election.

Augme wrote: »

The problem with the polls is that it doesn't take into account transfers. I expect the green party will be the most transfer friendly parrty of all which will have a big impact. Similarly, I think fine gael will be one of the least transfer friendly.

Irish polls have a few biases in them where they overstate FG and understate FF. But unless you are a statistician/ mathematician you won’t get the true picture. Plus the media really can’t be expected to do a deep dive analyses of it.

You seem to be right though on transfers. I looked at this election and no one transferred to FG. That will be worrying for headquarters.

But you have to look at locals from a micro level. For the good points of FG: FG is certain of one seat in Dublin Midwest and that will be it. They were never going to win a bye election though. So Emer will be in the next dail or whomever FG run. FG also have no real hope of a second seat in Cork, so id say Burke has done enough to see himself as elected from there as well.

Fingal and Wexford will worry FG though. FG had every opportunity with the right candidate to win Wexford(and Murphy could actually have been a good candidate). They will probably keep the 2 but won’t gain anything. Fingal looks to be only a one FG seat as well. That is down to headquarters though for running two complete gosh!tes in the constituency.

So if you take a broad stroke from all of this you would say FG are in course for a similar seat count next time, but if take that very very lightly though as each constituency is different and things may actually change with Paschal in charge.

And as for those who dont bother voting, well then they get what they deserve .........

Snow Garden wrote: »

The biggest problem for Fine Gael in GE20 is that the calibre of their TDs has been proven to be very poor in recent years. The likes of Farrell, Bailey, Verona Murphy, Madigan, Dara Murphy are giving the party a very bad name. They are all associated with insurance fraud and expense fraud. Then you have senators like Mulherin still trying to gouge the taxpayer after she lost her Dail seat.

Or perhaps there are people like me who have had their fill of fg regardless of the calibre of their TDs. I have had my fill of fg and ff I would love to see them BOTH destroyed at a general election but alas....

charlie14 wrote: »

With over 26% last GE, unless the FG vote collapsed completely Higgins will definitely get a seat. Other than that the only change I would see is SF going after Kenny`s vote and splitting O`Brion`s looking to take two that could leave them with both or none.
Cannot see O`Brion going for that though, so highly likely no change.

Yeah, FG would see a better opportunity in a GE. There are not 2 seats for SF in there and if anything is to be learnt from this they were about the only party who got their vote out. Probably temporary bragging rights as there is not really a quota there for two seats for any party.

charlie14 wrote: »

FG have been good at taking the last seat in many constituencies through transfers, especially from Labour. If Lawlor had gone before Murphy it would have been interesting to see where those Labour transfers were going.

The Greens may not won that many seats due to a shortage of FPVs, but they are a party that nowadays I would see getting a lot of lower preference. Something that could be a problem for FG as well for those last seats.

Those Labour transfers have stayed strong enough and there's no real reason to imagine voters are suddenly going to jump to the Greens over FG.
It might be a problem for either of the two larger parties and the Greens will only be strong in a limited number of urban centres. Going by the locals of 6% support as an indicator they can really only be competitive in about 6-8 seats and realistically pick up 4-6 of them. Last seats are down to pecking order and quiet a few do not reach the quota, which is why FF & FG tend to have a big advantage through multiple candidates and their vote management.

is_that_so wrote: »

Those Labour transfers have stayed strong enough and there's no real reason to imagine voters are suddenly going to jump to the Greens over FG.
It might be a problem for either of the two larger parties and the Greens will only be strong in a limited number of urban centres. Going by the locals of 6% support as an indicator they can really only be competitive in about 6-8 seats and realistically pick up 4-6 of them. Last seats are down to pecking order and quiet a few do not reach the quota, which is why FF & FG tend to have a big advantage through multiple candidates and their vote management.

If Labour`s poll numbers are any indication of their actual support their transfers may mean little in a GE. That said I always had the opinion that those strong transfers from them were due because they were looking to a coalition with FG. After the trimming they got after the last FG/Labour coalition 2011- 2016 and were not interested in government with FG after GE 2016 it will be interesting as to their intentions before the next one and what effect that might have on those transfers.
The Green wave was over-hyped in the European election, but I have a feeling that they will do quite well in this one and cause both FG and FF problems when it comes to those last seats

Idbatterim wrote: »

Fg constant stalling of an election has actually done them more damage. Expect ff to be one largest party next election. You can’t do nothing , let things get worse and expect to win more seats. Alll the parties are ****e in my opinion for what it’s worth. But having voted fg previously , I’ll vote fg simply to see that varadkar rat out !

Varadkar has been disappointing. He stands for nothing except politically correct crap. He doesn’t appear to have any real vision and worst of all isn’t likeable as a person. I can’t see him as Taoiseach after next election (so little surprise with the stalling!). If he was wildly popular he’d have gone long ago to the country

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As I keep saying, I don't know what people expected from Varadkar as Taoiseach that wasn't already blatantly obvious from his time as a minister.

That being, long on spin and catchy soundbites for the news (usually about someone else's department), but very very little to point to from his own or himself.

This is what happens folks when populist crusading wins over common sense. Leo's only real achievement is being gay and of mixed heritage - as if either of those have anything to do with leading the Government and representing the country's interests, and thus unsurprisingly his only other real achievement is to be even worse than his predecessor, which admittedly took some doing.

But seriously, this outcome should be of no surprise to anyone.

He’s young. Would think leaving your country is a privilege , get away from the old failed way of doing things. That was the hope with younger politicians. He’s a fraud , a despicable offensive , soundbyte loving fraud!

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As I keep saying, I don't know what people expected from Varadkar as Taoiseach that wasn't already blatantly obvious from his time as a minister.

That being, long on spin and catchy soundbites for the news (usually about someone else's department), but very very little to point to from his own or himself.

This is what happens folks when populist crusading wins over common sense. Leo's only real achievement is being gay and of mixed heritage - as if either of those have anything to do with leading the Government and representing the country's interests, and thus unsurprisingly his only other real achievement is to be even worse than his predecessor, which admittedly took some doing.

But seriously, this outcome should be of no surprise to anyone.

I can barely remember- he was in health for a blast but that was too much like hard work I seem to recall and he achieved nothing much there either I don’t think
Enda Kenny was a far better Taoiseach and that’s something I thought I’d never say. They should have left him in there

road_high wrote: »

I can barely remember- he was in health for a blast but that was too much like hard work I seem to recall and he achieved nothing much there either I don’t think
Enda Kenny was a far better Taoiseach and that’s something I thought I’d never say. They should have left him in there

But you keep saying you have been 'disappointed' by Varadkar, which implies you had expectations of him that he has failed to live up to. If you're saying now you knew all along he was a hollow man I don't see where the disappointment comes into it. If Taoiseach Michael Healy Rea turned out to be a laughing stock, would you be expressing your disappointment?

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As I keep saying, I don't know what people expected from Varadkar as Taoiseach that wasn't already blatantly obvious from his time as a minister.

That being, long on spin and catchy soundbites for the news (usually about someone else's department), but very very little to point to from his own or himself.

This is what happens folks when populist crusading wins over common sense. Leo's only real achievement is being gay and of mixed heritage - as if either of those have anything to do with leading the Government and representing the country's interests, and thus unsurprisingly his only other real achievement is to be even worse than his predecessor, which admittedly took some doing.

But seriously, this outcome should be of no surprise to anyone.

The FG party membership didn't even want Varadkar for taoiseach. They voted for Coveney.
The FG TDs and Senators pushed him across the line.