Turning very warm or hot with thunderstorm potential Sun eve 23rd---->

The Oort Cloud · 21-06-2019 8:12pm

Sounds good. Getting the video and camera recording equipment ready for next week for some good lightning shots.

Spanish Eyes · 21-06-2019 8:18pm

The dry heat of Andalucia and other countries is so bearable. Even at 35+ temps. Shade bathing is the new tanning!

Humidity is just awful, it is not pleasant at all.

I (and I am sure most others) just cannot cope with humidity. Sorry now, I hate to be sweatin!!

So what's the latest update thanks.

Gimme A Pound · 21-06-2019 8:20pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The dry heat of Andalucia and other countries is so bearable. Even at 35+ temps. Shade bathing is the new tanning!

Humidity is just awful, it is not pleasant at all.

I (and I am sure most others) just cannot cope with humidity. Sorry now, I hate to be sweatin!!

So what's the latest update thanks.

It's also sh1t for people prone to migraine, headaches, vertigo, allergies, respiratory issues. Sinus pain in my case - misery. And the tiredness is crazy.

Spanish Eyes · 21-06-2019 8:26pm

Gimme A Pound wrote: »

It's also sh1t for people prone to migraine, headaches, vertigo, allergies, respiratory issues. Sinus pain in my case - misery. And the tiredness is crazy.

I'm with you on the sinus issue and the headpain.

But it will soon be over if we get the high temps high humidity combo. Hopefully.

May have taken this valuable thread off track, but the weather has effects for lots of people too. And thanks to those updating it.

km79 · 21-06-2019 8:29pm

Just waiting for the drought merchants now
Hasn’t even happened yet and people are complaining
After months of complaining about low temps

It’s like last year all over again
We don’t deserve nice weather

Yakult · 21-06-2019 8:31pm

After a really warm sunny day (finally), its absolutely pissing down now in North Kerry. Still really warm so hoping for thunder!

Thelonious Monk · 21-06-2019 8:36pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Phenomenal,latest ECM similar to yesterday,surge of intense heat heading towards Ireland.
20 degree isotherm covering large portion of the country.Fascinating.

Ireland could have melted by this time next week

Why are people saying it will be warm on this forum but the met office only have highs of 16c for Dublin and a couple of C more in other parts of Ireland next wednesday and thursday?
Are they wrong or something? Why do people think it's going to be warm when forecasts say otherwise?

JCX BXC · 21-06-2019 8:42pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Why are people saying it will be warm on this forum but the met office only have highs of 16c for Dublin and a couple of C more in other parts of Ireland next wednesday and thursday?
Are they wrong or something? Why do people think it's going to be warm when forecasts say otherwise?

1). Symbol based forecasts are useless this far out, don't bother with them.

2). There's model disagreement, however we know that it will get warmer

3). Perhaps the most discussed point is that Dublin is in the east, and there will be an onshore wind cooling temperatures. Whatever temperatures we get, Dublin won't get getting the highest of them.

Gimme A Pound · 21-06-2019 8:45pm

km79 wrote: »

Just waiting for the drought merchants now
Hasn’t even happened yet and people are complaining
After months of complaining about low temps

It’s like last year all over again
We don’t deserve nice weather

People are simply hoping it won't be horrible oppressive humidity, which isn't nice weather just because it's warm.

And it's not necessarily the same people complaining about each extreme.

squarecircles · 21-06-2019 8:51pm

Thelonious Monk · 21-06-2019 8:52pm

Gimme A Pound wrote: »

People are simply hoping it won't be horrible oppressive humidity, which isn't nice weather just because it's warm.

And it's not necessarily the same people complaining about each extreme.

we've never had oppressive humidity in Ireland ffs! Try going to central america, even with totally blue skies the air is still kind of wet. 19c here and cloudy and people can't handle it. I think I must be a different breed.

Spanish Eyes · 21-06-2019 8:55pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

we've never had oppressive humidity in Ireland ffs! Try going to central america, even with totally blue skies the air is still kind of wet. 19c here and cloudy and people can't handle it. I think I must be a different breed.

Ah come on Thelonious, it is all relative really.

What is there to like dripping with sweat and feeling awful when it it pre thunder weather here. Pray tell.

JanuarySnowstor · 21-06-2019 8:56pm

Looks like some serious rainfall Sunday and into Sunday night...Flash floods possible as ppn likely to turn thundery before clearing esp further south. Interesting week coming up. The Met update by Alex Deakin is extraordinary for the UK. It isn't every day of the week we here the words violent thunderstorms or damaging hail...remember it's peak summer temperatures will rocket under sunshine at times..

Thelonious Monk · 21-06-2019 8:56pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Ah come on Thelonious, it is all relative really.

What is there to like dripping with sweat and feeling awful when it it pre thunder weather here. Pray tell.

I can't ever recall this happening to me. I know it's relative but seriously, it never gets uncomfortably warm in Ireland, for me anyway. And I'm someone who can't stand the heat in the average office or woman's living room in winter.

Thelonious Monk · 21-06-2019 8:58pm

My friend in Arnhem, Holland, reckons they'll break their record of 38.7 this week and could possibly hit 40, they're saying on the news there. That's nuts.

Gimme A Pound · 21-06-2019 8:59pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

we've never had oppressive humidity in Ireland ffs! Try going to central america, even with totally blue skies the air is still kind of wet. 19c here and cloudy and people can't handle it. I think I must be a different breed.

It gets to a fair bit higher than 19 degrees. Doesn't matter if it's not as bad as the places you mention. We're still not used to it.

And I don't get how anyone could enjoy it if it's just cloudy with zero hint of sun.

Yeah I feel like a different breed in the opposite sense when I hear what some people consider "freezing".

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 21-06-2019 9:01pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

we've never had oppressive humidity in Ireland ffs! Try going to central america, even with totally blue skies the air is still kind of wet. 19c here and cloudy and people can't handle it. I think I must be a different breed.

It’s a very humid country. As you would expect of an island in the sea. Or damp, as we call the cold humidity.

Gimme A Pound · 21-06-2019 9:04pm

I admit I seem to have a lower than average tolerance for elevated temperatures. There are people at work who are extremely overweight that have more tolerance of heat than I do. I am very much an outlier for an Irish woman.

But I do find cold uncomfortable at a certain point! And I think dry heat is grand once I stay in the shade. With a breeze it's lovely.

Kermit.de.frog · 21-06-2019 9:20pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

So what's the latest update thanks.

More than likely...

...next week

Danno · 21-06-2019 9:21pm

What a forecast from the UKMO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sxpU1eUA2I

Monkeynut · 21-06-2019 9:23pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

More than likely...

...next week

And this

Larbre34 · 21-06-2019 9:26pm

Tonights weather summary will be:

Its will be hot. Damn hot. It's gonna be hot and wet! That's nice if you're with a lady, but it ain't no good if you're in the jungle.

So, all food to be cajun, all clothes to be tropical battle gear and all music to be 'Somewhere down the Crazy River' by Robbie Robertson.

giveitholly · 21-06-2019 9:27pm

km79 wrote: »

Just waiting for the drought merchants now
Hasn’t even happened yet and people are complaining
After months of complaining about low temps

It’s like last year all over again
We don’t deserve nice weather

Nice weather to you might not be nice weather to other people,some people are quite happy with temperatures of 20ish whereas some people love when it goes into mid 20s or higher.As regards droughts peoples livelihoods depend on the land so of course they don't want droughts,its hard please everyone in Ireland when it comes to weather so I don't know why you say we don't deserve nice weather in ireland

lawred2 · 21-06-2019 9:27pm

BBC pointing to Tuesday and Wednesday of next week for that hot air to reach Ireland

Danno · 21-06-2019 9:28pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

we've never had oppressive humidity in Ireland ffs! Try going to central america, even with totally blue skies the air is still kind of wet. 19c here and cloudy and people can't handle it. I think I must be a different breed.

In fairness, comparing Central America (around the Caribbean) to Ireland is like comparing apples and oranges.

The humidity in Ireland compared to other locations +15/-15 degrees latitude is a fairer comparison. For example, I was in Paris a few years back and it felt like a warm summers day at home, I expected the high that day was around 22c or 23c based upon my experience from home. I looked up the high for that day, 31c in Paris.

The humidity has a huge bearing on the "feel" of the weather.

I remember Christmas morning 2010 and seeing the weather station reporting under -13c at 9am and expecting it to be bitter, but owing to the low humidity I could have ventured out in a T-Shirt, another typical winters morning at -3c and you'd freeze your socks off.

Danno · 21-06-2019 9:30pm

Sweet baby Jesus:

Thelonious Monk · 21-06-2019 9:35pm

giveitholly wrote: »

Nice weather to you might not be nice weather to other people,some people are quite happy with temperatures of 20ish whereas some people love when it goes into mid 20s or higher.As regards droughts peoples livelihoods depend on the land so of course they don't want droughts,its hard please everyone in Ireland when it comes to weather so I don't know why you say we don't deserve nice weather in ireland

The fact is it's cool or cold, as in doesn't go above 15c or so, for probably 48 weeks of the year and when we get a bit of weather over 20c or so people start moaning. That's annoying to people who like warm weather.

Larbre34 · 21-06-2019 9:37pm

In all seriousness, the conversation about severe risks to livestock in the open will have to be had.

At least the recent wet weather will have reduced the risk of dry brush for lightning to start wildfires.

squarecircles · 21-06-2019 9:37pm

It's official folks - Michelle Dillion of Met Eireann - next week will be ''hot'' and thundery.

Hot - a term Met Eireann rarely use.

Biscay thunderstorms across the country Tuesday.

Thelonious Monk · 21-06-2019 9:38pm

Danno wrote: »

In fairness, comparing Central America (around the Caribbean) to Ireland is like comparing apples and oranges.

I guess I just don't get the big deal, it's June 21 and we've had no warm weather in Dublin yet, so a few days is hardly going to kill anyone. Personally I've never been uncomfortably warm in Dublin, I realise it's a bit different inland.

igCorcaigh · 21-06-2019 9:41pm

Danno wrote: »

Sweet baby Jesus:

Is that upper atmosphere?
Wish I knew how to interpret these charts more.

Spanish Eyes · 21-06-2019 9:42pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

The fact is it's cool or cold, as in doesn't go above 15c or so, for probably 48 weeks of the year and when we get a bit of weather over 20c or so people start moaning. That's annoying to people who like warm weather.

I love heat. But it must be dry heat like I said earlier. I would rather be cool than dealing with sweat running down my face (and elsewhere!) in high humidity.

Look, it is each to their own, but sticky sweaty weather is not enjoyable. Well for me anyway.

Not that we get either of the above much here!

igCorcaigh · 21-06-2019 9:45pm

Totally agree SE.

Last year's summer felt so nice because of the low humidity and warm temps.
We rarely get that here.

I have been dealing very nicely with the recent 15/16C, anything more, and I sweat uncomfortably.
But can also love the high 20's in the medi.

Thelonious Monk · 21-06-2019 9:45pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Not that we get either of the above much here!

That's what I mean, how often is it too bloody humid in Ireland?

M.T. Cranium · 21-06-2019 9:50pm

The potential for thunderstorms seems to be greater than the potential for full-on heat with this, granted it will almost certainly get very warm by Thursday and Friday on current guidance, 27 or 28 C seems plausible in Ireland (away from cooler coasts from Cork around to Dublin), but not sold on anything above 30 as there will be frontal cloud lingering in many areas for parts of each day, if not more significant cooling effects of local showers and thunderstorms.

There has been a trend in recent model runs to slow down the onset and end of the warm spell, now it looks like Friday night into Saturday morning will be the breakdown but that could continue to push later and end up being Sunday if these trends continue.

Will perhaps post a contest for this around Sunday when it becomes a little more clear what the time frame should be.

Monkeynut · 21-06-2019 10:10pm

wet snow, wet heat, this year goes by that the trend so far.

we had good bit of snow and a great summer last year in Ireland, so that should do for a while. lol

maybe the summer may show, but feck it its Ireland.

Gonzo · 21-06-2019 10:17pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

wet snow, wet heat, this year goes by that the trend so far.

we had good bit of snow and a great summer last year in Ireland, so that should do for a while. lol

maybe the summer may show, but feck it its Ireland.

at least we're getting a few days of warmth, something that has been very much absent this year so far.

RobertKK · 21-06-2019 10:24pm

It has been too cold, we had days not much above 11C in June. It will make a nice change, hopefully some good thunderstorms - without damage.

Kermit.de.frog · 21-06-2019 10:32pm

I agree with MT re: cloud cover. Undoubtedly restricting temperatures for some at various times. That low pressure to the southwest will be developing complex frontal zones which occasionally drift over the country from the south/southeast - at the same time this is where the main storm potential comes from (other than the inland convective homegrown storms that will bubble up).

It's a trade off if your a fan of heat and storms.

pauldry · 21-06-2019 10:45pm

Oops deleted last post 26c or 27c still likely. Good stuff

Love thunderstorm rain

JCX BXC · 21-06-2019 11:12pm

The 18Z GFS is just strange, a write off of a run in my opinion.

The unconscious bias in me puts more confidence in the ECM for now.

esposito · 21-06-2019 11:17pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

The 18Z GFS is just strange, a write off of a run in my opinion.

The unconscious bias in me puts more confidence in the ECM for now.

Isn’t the 18Z GFS run almost always a write off anyway?!

The only runs I take seriously are the 12Z and 00Z ECM, GFS & UKMO.

JCX BXC · 21-06-2019 11:19pm

esposito wrote: »

Isn’t the 18Z GFS run almost always a write off anyway?!

The only runs I take seriously are the 12Z and 00Z ECM, GFS & UKMO.

I'm not particularly accustomed to the new version of the GFS, and the 18Z can be somewhat useful at times, but unfortunately it seems as if it's done it's usual thing of being strange.

Luke-m · 21-06-2019 11:24pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

The 18Z GFS is just strange, a write off of a run in my opinion.
.

The old gfs is different. It shows higher pressure and warmer 850s. I think the newer model has a few gremlins to iron out.

squarecircles · 22-06-2019 7:08am

MT predicting a high of 28 during the hot spell next week,warmest inland west, the flow will be from the southeast so cooler along east/south facing coasts with sea fog/low cloud.

JCX BXC · 22-06-2019 8:34am

GFS 0Z still very cautious, not wanting to get those higher 850's over Ireland. Showing fairly ****e temperatures.

The 0Z ECM however is still as beautiful as the runs before it. Ending it all by Saturday however.

lawred2 · 22-06-2019 8:35am

squarecircles wrote: »

MT predicting a high of 28 during the hot spell next week,warmest inland west, the flow will be from the southeast so cooler along east/south facing coasts with sea fog/low cloud.

Sea fog... That'll be 14 degrees then

JCX BXC · 22-06-2019 8:36am

lawred2 wrote: »

Sea fog... That'll be 14 degrees then

And I hope you jinx it!

lawred2 · 22-06-2019 8:44am

It's not my prediction... I've felt first hand the effect sea fog has on regional temps. Happened quite a bit around here during the hot spell last year.

Mortelaro · 22-06-2019 9:38am

Sea fog is a slow moving phenomenon in a slow moving atmosphere
It's not as prevalent when you have a driving flow like we will have next week as opposed to just the sea breezes you get under the type of meandering high pressure systems we had last year

The biggest drag on temps anywhere looks to me like active thunderstorms ....

Turning very warm or hot with thunderstorm potential Sun eve 23rd---->

Comments