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Turning very warm or hot with thunderstorm potential Sun eve 23rd---->

  • 21-06-2019 7:38am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    A big change coming - how prolonged or temporary it will be is still open to question but really from Tuesday next week it will be very warm and later hot (and increasingly humid) with easterly winds shifting more continental southeasterly.

    With low pressure the driving force to our southwest and steering up this hot air on it's eastern flank there is likely to be some instability around that will spark some storms. I think storms not only home grown but later originating in the Bay of Biscay (an altogether different beast storm wise) could cause problems.

    Temperatures from Tuesday generally mid - high twenties inland and possibly 30 + in some places later depending on how things evolve. Always that little bit cooler on coasts and particularly east/southeast coasts through the latter half of next week.


    ECMOPEU00_168_2.png


    At this point warnings may be issued for high temperature and potential flooding.

    Please keep up to date with the forecasts.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Yes indeed. The ecm is baking by next Friday all of course coinciding with mid Summer!! 30C is quite possible...
    Storms could be epic but where will they hit!?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka


    At last, the type of weather we've all been keenly waiting for :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    This is an unusual set-up, and still 5 days out until the real heat hits, I note the 0z GFS isn't great this morning.

    I'm going to keep reserved for the time being.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Thanks but no thanks. Rotten sticky sweaty humid s#it. Rotten


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    I'll take it, heat is heat. We don't have the luxury of turning it away. 25°c with showers is better than 15°c and showers.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    This June so far temp wise has been great for a non heat fan like myself . Take this morning for example a nice fresh feel outside. I dread next week's tiring humidity.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 14 ✭✭✭ jeannae


    Very strange. I don't like it too hot, of course, I don't like it too cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    This may be a couple of days or longer. Impossible to tell yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    I am sort of looking forward to this weather. Fed up getting rather wintry weather this June so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,556 ✭✭✭✭ Thelonious Monk


    Why is it that BBC and RTE have nothing about 21c max for any day next week for Dublin and Galway and Kilkenny? Do you know something they don't?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,440 ✭✭✭ daheff


    Why is it that BBC and RTE have nothing about 21c max for any day next week for Dublin and Galway and Kilkenny? Do you know something they don't?

    they want to get their BBQ stuff first before the rush :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    24c is the tops Sligo will go id say

    26c or 27c possible MT dillon

    Any mini contest of max temp and rainfall from this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    Looking at Dublin and surrounding regions it will certainly get warmer but that doesn't mean it will be dry all day. With a very unstable atmosphere we will see the formation of cumulonimbus clouds so thunderstorms possibilities very high.
    ECM clearly shows spikes in both temperature and precipitation.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I don't think we will see much higher than 24 or 25C, especially if there is going to be lots of cloud and rain around, during rain i'd imagine temperatures would struggle to get to 19C, even with those high uppers. This would be a much more exciting prospect if it was blue skies and unbroken sunshine, then we would be looking at temperatures getting close to 30C somewhere.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    This appears to be peak of the heat:

    Temperatures of about 18C to 23C for Ireland, London getting to 33C.

    150-580UK.GIF?21-6


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,556 ✭✭✭✭ Thelonious Monk


    Looks like a non event in Dublin anyway to me


  • Registered Users Posts: 902 ✭✭✭ snowstorm445


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This appears to be peak of the heat:

    Temperatures of about 18C to 23C for Ireland, London getting to 33C.

    150-580UK.GIF?21-6

    Still a good bit warmer than it’s been so far this summer. Should be slightly more bearable than over in the UK as well if the high humidity is factored in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,556 ✭✭✭✭ Thelonious Monk


    Highs of 18-23c gets its own thread this summer. Ffs.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Highs of 18-23c gets its own thread this summer. Ffs.

    with some luck, it could get higher especially if there is sunshine, could potentially see 25 or 26C, the temperature map I posted above is just a guide and is still several days away yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,556 ✭✭✭✭ Thelonious Monk


    Gonzo wrote: »
    with some luck, it could get higher especially if there is sunshine, could potentially see 25 or 26C, the temperature map I posted above is just a guide and is still several days away yet.

    Do you know why BBC/RTE etc only have highs of 18 max for Dublin all next week?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 902 ✭✭✭ snowstorm445


    Do you know why BBC/RTE etc only have highs of 18 max for Dublin all next week?

    Onshore breeze in Dublin and the east coast means it’ll be cooler than inland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 928 ✭✭✭ compsys


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This appears to be peak of the heat:

    Temperatures of about 18C to 23C for Ireland, London getting to 33C.

    150-580UK.GIF?21-6

    We need to get over our obsession with what the weather is like in London.

    London is over 450km away from Dublin. It's a big distance in weather terms. I can understand if the weather was poor in Dublin and nice in Cork, Belfast or Scotland.

    But it's silly to complain that it's warmer in London and compare Ireland to there and to feel like we're 'missing out'.

    London is also impacted by a pronounced UHI effect meaning an extra 2 or 3 degrees is often recorded in the city.

    Not having a go at you specifically Gonzo as we all do it. But we'd all do ourselves a favour if we just accepted that London is going to have far better and far warmer summers than us every year.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Well I suspect this'll be something of a non event in terms of temps but we'll get the humidity regardless unfortunately! :(

    Today is exactly as Ireland in summer should feel - sunny and a light breeze.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,863 ✭✭✭✭ leahyl


    Well I suspect this'll be something of a non event in terms of temps but we'll get the humidity regardless unfortunately! :(

    Today is exactly as Ireland in summer should feel - sunny and a light breeze.

    Agree, lovely day today.

    What I hate most about Irelands weather in the summer is that if we get nice temperatures, the humidity that comes with it normally horrible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I think the West will get high temperatures of 26 or 27c inland in midweek.

    Even with humidity etc.

    Its very warm uppers


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,556 ✭✭✭✭ Thelonious Monk


    It seems to me the media sees a heatwave for the South East of England and then start spouting about their being a heatwave here even though there'll be nothing of the sort!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    So in conclusion...


    its not happening in Dublin


    and BOO/HISS London/England/uk.




    im going to enjoy the humidity and warmth and thunder regardless


    its alot more exciting than the usual dross.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    pauldry wrote: »
    I think the West will get high temperatures of 26 or 27c inland in midweek.

    Even with humidity etc.

    Its very warm uppers

    Agreed, its going to be alot warmer than recently and the details are still changing run to run -

    27-28c in the mid west and inland south east by the back end of the week is my guess. 22-24c generally with temps held back to 18-21c under any thunderstorms or anywhere with an onshore breeze.

    Yes no point in comparing to the UK but this is looking like a noteworthy Spanish plume, 40c possible in Paris mid week , June record is 37.6c there. London could see 36-38c, that will not be comfortable at all with the relatively high humidity.

    The upper temps being shown are very high for Ireland is why I think it will get warmer then the low 20's at times.

    Regardless, it's likely to feel humid and sticky almost everywhere next week, how 'hot' is still to be confirmed...

    As a side note, a fun mini competition would be for rainfall amounts, anywhere under thunderstorms can expect intense rainfall with flash flooding possible.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭ Mortelaro


    Agreed Blizzard 7
    Noticeably hot inland but the sea breeze remember will actually be a SE flow not a real sea breeze, ergo it's like inverse winter modification
    The surface source will be warm over Britain (think heat fields, the opposite of snow fields) and France
    Add to the mix a few biscay,homemade and welsh/Cornwall import storms and theres nothing Whatever to complain about
    An exciting week ahead


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    12z GFS pushing the warmer temperatures further away


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