Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

The Peanut · 12-01-2015 11:58am

Fairly relieved. The Jan/Feb storms of last year caused so much damage to trees around my place, that we ended up having to apply for a felling licence to knock most of the half-dmaged trees done. Annoyingly, I also have to re-plant trees so it's a double cost.

Some of the remaining trees are quite exposed now so I'm very wary of exceptionally strong winds forecast for the SW.

legomaniac · 12-01-2015 12:11pm

Pleased to hear this storm won't hit us. I was worried about damage as last year's events ripped a roof off one of my sheds. It was a very windy one last night in South Donegal but nothing that you wouldn't experience a number of times in a typical winter. I like extreme weather especially temperatures but wind, no. People were all chat about this wind yesterday... they'll be relieved it's not coming. Maq always does a great job on here and never hypes things up. Also met Eireann have no warnings up for Wednesday so it's looking likely no storm.

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 12:20pm

legomaniac wrote: »

Pleased to hear this storm won't hit us. I was worried about damage as last year's events ripped a roof off one of my sheds. It was a very windy one last night in South Donegal but nothing that you wouldn't experience a number of times in a typical winter. I like extreme weather especially temperatures but wind, no. People were all chat about this wind yesterday... they'll be relieved it's not coming. Maq always does a great job on here and never hypes things up. Also met Eireann have no warnings up for Wednesday so it's looking likely no storm.

Still a few days to go. It's still likely to be stormy, especially in the northwest. But it may not be as strong as previously expected. Stay tuned.

Storm 10 · 12-01-2015 1:12pm

legomaniac wrote: »

Pleased to hear this storm won't hit us. I was worried about damage as last year's events ripped a roof off one of my sheds. It was a very windy one last night in South Donegal but nothing that you wouldn't experience a number of times in a typical winter. I like extreme weather especially temperatures but wind, no. People were all chat about this wind yesterday... they'll be relieved it's not coming. Maq always does a great job on here and never hypes things up. Also met Eireann have no warnings up for Wednesday so it's looking likely no storm.

Met Eireann still mention stormy conditions for Wednesday, too early for them to issue any warnings yet.

It will be very windy or stormy in the evening and night with very strong and
gusty westerly winds. Temperatures of just 1 to 5 degrees will increase through
the evening and early night and will fall again overnight.

Tactical · 12-01-2015 1:15pm

legomaniac wrote: »

Pleased to hear this storm won't hit us.....

Met Eireann have no warnings up for Wednesday so it's looking likely no storm.

Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.

A good tip is to keep in the back of your mind is that weather forecasting is a dynamic thing. Conditions can improve or worsen. Don't write anything off. Take emotion out if the equation and ask "what if....."

After all, sea going vessels carry life jackets. None plan on getting into difficlty or sinking but it sometimes happens....

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2015 1:15pm

legomaniac wrote: »

Pleased to hear this storm won't hit us. I was worried about damage as last year's events ripped a roof off one of my sheds. It was a very windy one last night in South Donegal but nothing that you wouldn't experience a number of times in a typical winter. I like extreme weather especially temperatures but wind, no. People were all chat about this wind yesterday... they'll be relieved it's not coming. Maq always does a great job on here and never hypes things up. Also met Eireann have no warnings up for Wednesday so it's looking likely no storm.

Yep, just a light breeze

gfs-0-72.png?6

Tactical · 12-01-2015 1:21pm

"Take emotion out if it....."

Now, for the rest of us emotion plays a big part.

I take great enjoyment of of the model watching, model development, the input and discussion from both the very knowledgeable forum members and regular contributors.

Personally I tend to hope for the more severe end of the spectrum as the raw power of mother nature is amazing to experience. It doesn't mean I want to see damage and devistation as I reside in an exposed location myself but other than prepare as well as possible there us nothing one can do to halt the progress of any weather system.

I live in hope

AnotherYear · 12-01-2015 1:23pm

GFS(P) Which handled the storm across Scotland really well last week is a severe event across the West and North. 80mph+ across some inland locations and 92mph+ getting in to parts of Donegal

Graces7 · 12-01-2015 2:55pm

The Peanut wrote: »

Fairly relieved. The Jan/Feb storms of last year caused so much damage to trees around my place, that we ended up having to apply for a felling licence to knock most of the half-dmaged trees done. Annoyingly, I also have to re-plant trees so it's a double cost.

Some of the remaining trees are quite exposed now so I'm very wary of exceptionally strong winds forecast for the SW.

Same here. Some fell in one stand of ancient conifers and some half fell propping each other up. Been asking the landlord to keep an eye on them since. One is hanging over the lane ominously

Graces7 · 12-01-2015 3:00pm

Tactical wrote: »

"Take emotion out if it....."

Now, for the rest of us emotion plays a big part.

I take great enjoyment of of the model watching, model development, the input and discussion from both the very knowledgeable forum members and regular contributors.

Personally I tend to hope for the more severe end of the spectrum as the raw power of mother nature is amazing to experience. It doesn't mean I want to see damage and devistation as I reside in an exposed location myself but other than prepare as well as possible there us nothing one can do to halt the progress of any weather system.

I live in hope

Maybe you need to spend a year or three where I used to live; outer northern Orkneys.....Or just the winter...I well remember trying to feed my critters( I was almost self sufficient with a smallholding) in winds of 124 Mph. Hanging on to washing poles and feeling as if the skin was being flayed off your face. Three days of that several times each winter.

Graces7 · 12-01-2015 3:22pm

,,, seeing a sturdy well anchored hen house full of hand reared birds take off and be smashed to smithereens...then after I came here, losing several family members in the big tsunami,, yes, abundant emotion... I shake at the wind now..ah well!

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2015 3:24pm

EMHI for Wed noon, gales, rather than storm winds off the west coast, at least at this early stage. Not really liking that distorted storm core, as it seems to be having trouble getting itself together. Hopefully it will by the time it nears the NW coast.

goat2 · 12-01-2015 3:33pm

which counties and parts of country is going to get the worst, we got it worst last time, hoping for a change this time, just took stuff that would fly and put them in sheltered hedged part of garden,

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 3:44pm

I'm highly suspect of the GFSP. It's just so much stronger than the ECM, and the ECM has a solid track record with these lows at this range whereas as the GFSP is still a model not fully operational.

Let's see what the 12Z runs show...

tylercollins · 12-01-2015 4:32pm

I've just asked for Thursday off work to go storm chasing

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 4:43pm

12Z GFS is weaker than the 06Z, which was weaker than the 0Z...

Iancar29 · 12-01-2015 4:43pm

GFS moving towards the weaker solution of the ECM.
06z

12z

munsterlegend · 12-01-2015 4:47pm

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS is weaker than the 06Z, which was weaker than the 0Z...

there doesn't seem to much of a difference from my untrained eye?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 12-01-2015 4:49pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

there doesn't seem to much of a difference from my untrained eye?

The squiggles ain't as close :pac:

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 4:50pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

there doesn't seem to much of a difference from my untrained eye?

5mb weaker, further north, isobars more spread out over Ireland.

HIRLAM will be the most important model from this point on though.

munsterlegend · 12-01-2015 4:50pm

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

The squiggles ain't as close :pac:

something like that!!

Harry Palmr · 12-01-2015 4:51pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

there doesn't seem to much of a difference from my untrained eye?

Only 5 millibars makes quite a difference to the intensity of a low pressure, its looks like being 10-15 higher than might have been the worst case its also tracking slightly further north.

munsterlegend · 12-01-2015 4:54pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Only 5 millibars makes quite a difference to the intensity of a low pressure, its looks like being 10-15 higher than might have been the worst case its also tracking slightly further north.

wind gusts prediction very similar but certainly the trend is getting weaker.

AnotherYear · 12-01-2015 4:58pm

GFS(P) Still looks breezy

gfs-0-66.png?12

munsterlegend · 12-01-2015 5:01pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Only 5 millibars makes quite a difference to the intensity of a low pressure, its looks like being 10-15 higher than might have been the worst case its also tracking slightly further north.

Mt has stated that it might not be until tomorrow before we can say for certain the intensity/track of this storm. Was the February 2014 storm predicted 48-72 hours in advance as being as severe as it turned out?

corsav6 · 12-01-2015 5:02pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Only 5 millibars makes quite a difference to the intensity of a low pressure, its looks like being 10-15 higher than might have been the worst case its also tracking slightly further north.

So it should be no worse than last years storms?

maquiladora · 12-01-2015 5:02pm

12Z HIRLAM is 949mb at 6pm Wednesday. As far as the model goes.

munsterlegend · 12-01-2015 5:04pm

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM is 949mb at 6pm Wednesday. As far as the model goes.

is that lower than you thought?

AnotherYear · 12-01-2015 5:04pm

GFS(P) 150Km/ph gusts in Donegal. 150km as high as that chart goes

RED L4 0TH · 12-01-2015 5:16pm

HIRLAM run out to Wed evening.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/temp2mv2,presmslp,presmslv

Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

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