Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

firemansam4 · 13-12-2020 1:12pm

This is going to keep dragging on right until the 1st of January when shock horror they will announce another extention to conclude the negotiations....

The British side are convinced that the EU will bluff until the final deadline hours, they think the EU will capitulate to there demands at the last minute.

When it turns out this does not happen Bojo like he has done in the past, will backtrack on anything he promised and make up some fudge about there needing to be another transition period to iron out a few aspects of the deal which will give Britain back its sovereignty and all of that guff, and on we will go with this circus.....

Silent Running · 13-12-2020 1:14pm

GazzaL wrote: »

What happens next? Trade talks to continue indefinitely while Britain quietly leaves on 1st January when the transition period ends?

It amazes me how many people think that Britain hasn't left yet. They left at the end of January this year. Even our own house Brexiteer doesn't seem to accept this.

The current negotiations are around the future relationship: a trade deal. These negotiations could go on forever, but the transition period ends on the 31st of December. This is when Britain must decide if it wants to sail off to sunny uplands where mythical beasts roam, or to swallow a dose of reality and agree a way forward.

But first they must realise that the EU isn't going to compromise their founding beliefs just to save the British bacon.

ElJeffe · 13-12-2020 1:14pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

The EU are bending over backwards to get a fair deal done
They know the damage no deal will do to island of Ireland

The UK don't want a fair deal, they want everything their own way. Just call the UK's bluff and let the go and give us huge financial support that we are going to need. The UK's economy will collapse within 2 years and nobody will ever think of leaving the EU block again.

BorneTobyWilde · 13-12-2020 1:14pm

So many countries in Europe who are not in EU, from Switzerland, to Iceland, to Norway to 10 plus others, UK is just been awkward with their demands. They want access to the market, and offer NOTHING in return.

GazzaL · 13-12-2020 1:15pm

Silent Running wrote: »

It amazes me how many people think that Britain hasn't left yet. They left at the end of January this year. Even our own house Brexiteer doesn't seem to accept this.

The current negotiations are around the future relationship: a trade deal. These negotiations could go on forever, but the transition period ends on the 31st of December. This is when Britain must decide if it wants to sail off to sunny uplands where mythical beasts roam, or to swallow a dose of reality and agree a way forward.

But first they must realise that the EU isn't going to compromise their founding beliefs just to save the British bacon.

Poor choice of words on my part, I'm well aware that they've already left.

Rrrrrr2 · 13-12-2020 1:16pm

lawred2 wrote: »

says who?

You expect all 27 member nations who will need to ratify this will do so without reading it?

That might be something Boris Johnson would do - but don't expect all 27 members states to do so.

They will allow the 1st Jan come and go without a deal.

Exactly- there’s no rush. The U.K. want to drag their feet? It’s their funeral

GazzaL · 13-12-2020 1:18pm

Is an extension to the transition period still a possibility?

Rrrrrr2 · 13-12-2020 1:18pm

firemansam4 wrote: »

This is going to keep dragging on right until the 1st of January when shock horror they will announce another extention to conclude the negotiations....

The British side are convinced that the EU will bluff until the final deadline hours, they think the EU will capitulate to there demands at the last minute.

When it turns out this does not happen Bojo like he has done in the past, will backtrack on anything he promised and make up some fudge about there needing to be another transition period to iron out a few aspects of the deal which will give Britain back its sovereignty and all of that guff, and on we will go with this circus.....

It’ll be framed as a continuity agreement or something flowery like that

Rrrrrr2 · 13-12-2020 1:18pm

GazzaL wrote: »

Is an extension to the transition period still a possibility?

Very much so I sense. But it won’t be called that

Sam Russell · 13-12-2020 1:20pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Very hard to pivot beef farmers to veg. It is a very specialised sector with high input in terms of labour

I appreciate that. As I said, the low end of suckler production is a part time business. What I did not say was that many of those low end producers are elderly, and would not be able to switch to vegetables.

A farmer I knew, now long dead, used to say he was the only farmer in his area who grew his own vegetables - all others had long shifted to supermarket supply. A few rows of spuds and cabbage and onions cost next to nothing and he could not understand why others considered it too much trouble. Also, he always had plenty of hay at the end of the most brutal winter, while his neighbours were hunting for supplies and animals crying in the field with hunger.

We need to take Brexit as an opportunity to reform agriculture, both to take account of the shift in market, and the need to take account of climate change.

We will not be bailed out in the long term, and perhaps not even in the short term.

ancapailldorcha · 13-12-2020 1:20pm

GazzaL wrote: »

Is an extension to the transition period still a possibility?

I can't imagine so. It was a legally dubious proposition months back. Now there's barely time to ratify any agreement and that's assuming that the EU27 parliaments and assemblies unanimously approve it without any hiccups.

13-12-2020 1:21pm

GazzaL wrote: »

Is an extension to the transition period still a possibility?

Only if 28 countries agree to an extension!

CelticRambler · 13-12-2020 1:21pm

rock22 wrote: »

UK has already destroyed the EU timeline, meaning there will be no proper democratic oversight to this deal in the short time left. Surely this alone is a big win for UK?

Huh? Inasmuch as there is any "EU timeline" the key point in that was the stopwatch started by triggering Article 50, and the UK ran down that clock fighting among themselves without achieving anything. They had to be "bailed out" by the EU granting them an extension, time which they also wasted on silliness. Then, when the UK reached the last deadline for requesting yet another much-needed extension, they stubbornly refused to ask for it, which has brought us to where we are today, with the EU rolling out its no-deal contingencies while the UK is still acting the muppet.

So I'm not sure how you're seeing that as having "destroyed the EU timeline". Similarly, what makes you think there'll be no democratic oversight (on the part of the EU)? There's all the time in the world left for the parliaments of the EU27 to review and approve any proposed deal. Jan 1st is a deadline for the UK; the EU will trundle on beyond that date as if nothing (much) has changed.

ElJeffe · 13-12-2020 1:21pm

GazzaL wrote: »

Is an extension to the transition period still a possibility?

No i think we've passed that point now. The Sunday Heil is majoring on shoving the blame onto Angela Merkel, saying she wants the UK to crawl over broken glass! Complains that "Lutheran" Merkel doesn't like "libertine" Johnson. Dangerous comparison for them to make, as Merkel is widely admired for her pragmatism, while Johnson is regarded as a spineless fool everywhere but Heil-land.

Didn't read further than the headlines, as was just "borrowing" it for a moment while I waited at the supermarket. Sadly, lots of people buying it, although they're probably just going to ingest the headlines, too. Expect a barrage of abuse for Merkel in the next couple of days. How sad and shameful.

GazzaL · 13-12-2020 1:25pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Following a No Deal Brexit, we, as an economy, will have an oversupply of beef, which currently is sold into the UK at commodity prices. It is sold at commodity prices because it is in oversupply anyway.

To solve this, we need to cut the suckler beef herd by about 25%, and compensate those farmers at the bottom end of the supply. Now those farmers do not actually make a profit and are sustained by the EU single payment.

We could do with a greater supply of basic vegetables, and of grain. Now if those farmers could diversify to provide that it would be helpful, but suckler production at the low end is a part-time business runs as a way to qualify for the single payment. That is a problem.

We have a climate that favours poly tunnel vegetable and other horticulture generally. We need to get into that so that 'rural Ireland' can regenerate. A project for the Green Party.

Brexit should be seen here in Ireland as an opportunity and renaissance. We joined the EEC in 1973 with such an outlook, and we should see Brexit in the same light.

I don't know much about agriculture, but I agree with the general point that Brexit should be seen as an opportunity.

CelticRambler · 13-12-2020 1:32pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

We have a climate that favours poly tunnel vegetable and other horticulture generally. We need to get into that so that 'rural Ireland' can regenerate. A project for the Green Party.

Brexit should be seen here in Ireland as an opportunity and renaissance. We joined the EEC in 1973 with such an outlook, and we should see Brexit in the same light.

Be careful what you wish for.

Converting rural Ireland into a polytunnel paradise would play havoc with our tourism industry ... and make our dubious claims in respect of environmental friendliness much harder to justify. Look at Spain to see what acres of plastic does to the environment and the mental health of those who have to live and work around it.

If anything, for large-scale urban supermarket supply, we're likely to see a very rapid shift to "factory raised" vegetables in facilities such as those coming on stream now in Japan - highly efficient, no seasonality, zero pesticides, minimal carbon footprint - the kind of operation that would run any low-margin farmer right out of the market. DW has a interesting documentary the topic (which if adopted in the UK, incidentally, would also defuse their Spanish tomato dependency - could be a good investment opportunity for someone looking for a Brexit dividend!

)

13-12-2020 1:39pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

To solve this, we need to cut the suckler beef herd by about 25%, and compensate those farmers at the bottom end of the supply. Now those farmers do not actually make a profit and are sustained by the EU single payment.

We could do with a greater supply of basic vegetables, and of grain. Now if those farmers could diversify to provide that it would be helpful, but suckler production at the low end is a part-time business runs as a way to qualify for the single payment. That is a problem.

Much of Ireland isn't suitable for anything but grazing and forestry. Veg is labour and capital intensive. Many farmers wouldn't even be in possession of a decent plough. They might have a fancy tractor as a status symbol but not the stuff you'd expect them to have to hook on to three point linkage on the back.
replanting native woodland in the West and North West would be nice but probably won't happen even if it removes the E.U. funded social-welfare farmers leaving only the Professional Farmers behind.

Rrrrrr2 · 13-12-2020 1:40pm

GazzaL wrote: »

I don't know much about agriculture, but I agree with the general point that Brexit should be seen as an opportunity.

Our food quality is really excellent- our beef and dairy extremely cheap for what it is. The brits had a great deal on it for decades. It will survive and can and is exported to other markets - our milk powders and dairy ingredients are highly regarded and sold the world over. We will continue to perform in core areas we are good at.
On other goods I’d expect some local substitution but imposts from the continent probably more likely. That’s if the U.K. don’t do a deal which I think they will in time. Things like local veg production are not as lucrative or exportable and need a lot if investment with very good land.

13-12-2020 1:45pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Be careful what you wish for. Converting rural Ireland into a polytunnel paradise would play havoc with our tourism industry ... and make our dubious claims in respect of environmental friendliness much harder to justify. Look at Spain to see what acres of plastic does to the environment and the mental health of those who have to live and work around it.

If anything, for large-scale urban supermarket supply, we're likely to see a very rapid shift to "factory raised" vegetables in facilities such as those coming on stream now in Japan - highly efficient, no seasonality, zero pesticides, minimal carbon footprint - the kind of operation that would run any low-margin farmer right out of the market. DW has a interesting documentary the topic (which if adopted in the UK, incidentally, would also defuse their Spanish tomato dependency - could be a good investment opportunity for someone looking for a Brexit dividend! )

Irish tourism gets little benefit from agriculture as it is. You can't roam the countryside as it is all locked away behind ditches and isn't particularly pleasing to the eye. The countryside is a shared resource in other countries where you can travel by foot or bike from village to village on paths through farmland distinct and well removed from the roads which link the villages.

Enzokk · 13-12-2020 1:52pm

GazzaL wrote: »

Is an extension to the transition period still a possibility?

I think there will be an extension, but only if a deal is agreed and to allow for the ratification of the deal by the respective parliaments. So the extension will be done on the terms of the deal, not an extension of the transition like we have now.

20silkcut · 13-12-2020 1:52pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Irish tourism gets little benefit from agriculture as it is. You can't roam the countryside as it is all locked away behind ditches and isn't particularly pleasing to the eye. The countryside is a shared resource in other countries where you can travel by foot or bike from village to village on paths through farmland distinct and well removed from the roads which link the villages.

A lot of the reason the Irish countryside is out of bounds is because of the risk of litigation.
Small farms could be one trip or a fall away from oblivion.

Widdensushi · 13-12-2020 1:53pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Irish tourism gets little benefit from agriculture as it is. You can't roam the countryside as it is all locked away behind ditches and isn't particularly pleasing to the eye. The countryside is a shared resource in other countries where you can travel by foot or bike from village to village on paths through farmland distinct and well removed from the roads which link the villages.

Plenty of walks through agricultural land if you look for them, just wandering around people's farm is not encouraged for obvious reasons

mrunsure · 13-12-2020 1:56pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Irish tourism gets little benefit from agriculture as it is. You can't roam the countryside as it is all locked away behind ditches and isn't particularly pleasing to the eye. The countryside is a shared resource in other countries where you can travel by foot or bike from village to village on paths through farmland distinct and well removed from the roads which link the villages.

Pardon my ignorance, but is there no public right of way network (footpaths/bridlepaths) in Ireland?

13-12-2020 1:58pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

Plenty of walks through agricultural land if you look for them, just wandering around people's farm is not encouraged for obvious reasons

Not around where I grew up. Only way to get from village to village is on the boreens and you need to climb up on to the ditches to avoid the cars racing though at over 100kmph. If you were to go across land you'd be greeted by Bulls, unsocialized cattle and Farmers with shotguns.

13-12-2020 1:59pm

mrunsure wrote: »

Pardon my ignorance, but is there no public right of way network (footpaths/bridlepaths) in Ireland?

precious little.

fash · 13-12-2020 2:23pm

firemansam4 wrote: »

This is going to keep dragging on right until the 1st of January when shock horror they will announce another extention to conclude the negotiations....

The British side are convinced that the EU will bluff until the final deadline hours, they think the EU will capitulate to there demands at the last minute.

When it turns out this does not happen Bojo like he has done in the past, will backtrack on anything he promised and make up some fudge about there needing to be another transition period to iron out a few aspects of the deal which will give Britain back its sovereignty and all of that guff, and on we will go with this circus.....

EU can't extend and UK fully aware.
I must say I am more positive there will be a deal after seeing some UK movement this morning and VDL/Johnson phone call seems to have been positive. Not a done deal yet, but going in the right direction.

Contrary view from a Brexit watcher:
.

fash · 13-12-2020 2:46pm

Enzokk wrote: »

I think there will be an extension, but only if a deal is agreed and to allow for the ratification of the deal by the respective parliaments. So the extension will be done on the terms of the deal, not an extension of the transition like we have now.

I agree, if it is possible, it would help everyone (Johnson & EU wanting a deal) to have an "implementation period" to transition to the real deal and would avoid a even-with-a-deal car crash" on 1 Jan.

13-12-2020 2:49pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Be careful what you wish for. Converting rural Ireland into a polytunnel paradise would play havoc with our tourism industry ... and make our dubious claims in respect of environmental friendliness much harder to justify. Look at Spain to see what acres of plastic does to the environment and the mental health of those who have to live and work around it.

If anything, for large-scale urban supermarket supply, we're likely to see a very rapid shift to "factory raised" vegetables in facilities such as those coming on stream now in Japan - highly efficient, no seasonality, zero pesticides, minimal carbon footprint - the kind of operation that would run any low-margin farmer right out of the market. DW has a interesting documentary the topic (which if adopted in the UK, incidentally, would also defuse their Spanish tomato dependency - could be a good investment opportunity for someone looking for a Brexit dividend! )

Large scale factory farming for fruit and vegetables is the way forward to reducing the "1000 mile salad", a strategy that should be pursued regardless of the politics of Brexit.
It is something the UK must embrace to ensure future food independence from the EU, but they will have to employ locals as the EU migrants will be harder to import.

beggars_bush · 13-12-2020 2:50pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I appreciate that. As I said, the low end of suckler production is a part time business. What I did not say was that many of those low end producers are elderly, and would not be able to switch to vegetables.

A farmer I knew, now long dead, used to say he was the only farmer in his area who grew his own vegetables - all others had long shifted to supermarket supply. A few rows of spuds and cabbage and onions cost next to nothing and he could not understand why others considered it too much trouble. Also, he always had plenty of hay at the end of the most brutal winter, while his neighbours were hunting for supplies and animals crying in the field with hunger.

We need to take Brexit as an opportunity to reform agriculture, both to take account of the shift in market, and the need to take account of climate change.

We will not be bailed out in the long term, and perhaps not even in the short term.

Single farm payment should have a stipulation about veg growing or some sort of diversification

Sam Russell · 13-12-2020 2:54pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Single farm payment should have a stipulation about veg growing or some sort of diversification

Maybe a bit of fish farming could be thrown into the mix. I like a bit of fresh trout.

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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