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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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    #2882
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,734 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Most places around Europe this summer kept their doors open, cultural sights, bars/restaurants, shops etc..Ireland didn't.

    And to say that business outside aviation didn't miss tourism is not understanding what aviation brings to many parts of the world...
    I guess i'll have to explain it to you... Every international traveller spends money on goods and services, which contribute to municipal/general taxes, enabling local Governments in places like the Greek islands to use that money towards local roads, schools, healthcare facilities, preservation of national monuments, environmental improvements all which benefit the people who live there.. Without international travel the end result can cause real poverty for people who rely directly and indirectly on it...

    There were a lot of Staycations though, so while say Dublin City Centre was devastated, on the other side of things Boat rentals for pleasure cruisers had their best year ever. Some areas have been disproportionately hit, and others have done reasonably well over the Summer.


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    #2883
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users Posts: 8,574 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Inquitus wrote: »
    There were a lot of Staycations though, so while say Dublin City Centre was devastated, on the other side of things Boat rentals for pleasure cruisers had their best year ever. Some areas have been disproportionately hit, and others have done reasonably well over the Summer.

    Of course, domestic tourism had a small surge in mid/late summer, but nowhere near enough to sustain tourism to the levels that international tourism would have, most of the prices are for U.S and Asian tourists who would spend a lot more in the country...
    It's possible to increase international tourism if its managed accordingly.


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    #2884
    Caranica
    Registered Users Posts: 10,032 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    Booked a flight to Edinburgh next June yesterday. Fairly ridiculous prices if they're trying to get people back traveling. AL were 160 saver, Ryanair worked out at 130. Don't think I've ever paid that much to get to Edinburgh even at Hogmanay. Needed to get the flights booked though as dates are set in stone.


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    #2885
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users Posts: 8,574 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Caranica wrote: »
    Booked a flight to Edinburgh next June yesterday. Fairly ridiculous prices if they're trying to get people back traveling. AL were 160 saver, Ryanair worked out at 130. Don't think I've ever paid that much to get to Edinburgh even at Hogmanay. Needed to get the flights booked though as dates are set in stone.

    June 2021? Welcome to the next few years of air travel, reduced capacity, higher prices as result, after November you won't find many more €40 return flights, more likely to be €60 one way....


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    #2886
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,247 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Most places around Europe this summer kept their doors open, cultural sights, bars/restaurants, shops etc..Ireland didn't.

    And to say that business outside aviation didn't miss tourism is not understanding what aviation brings to many parts of the world...
    I guess i'll have to explain it to you... Every international traveller spends money on goods and services, which contribute to municipal/general taxes, enabling local Governments in places like the Greek islands to use that money towards local roads, schools, healthcare facilities, preservation of national monuments, environmental improvements all which benefit the people who live there.. Without international travel the end result can cause real poverty for people who rely directly and indirectly on it...

    I don't argue with any of that. Any industry that depends on the spend of travellers is going to suffer terribly when there are no travellers. My point is broader in that there are many business that don't depend on traveller spend but were thought prior to the pandemic to depend on travel and connectivity to enable their business. Covid has challenged this assumption and that meeting where the executives needed to fly across oceans to complete that merger or acquisition which was once thought essential, was actually potentially unnecessary.

    Everyone enjoys a holiday, so once this passes (and it will pass) I expect tourism to rebound quite quickly. Especially with pent up demand. What I don't expect to come back quickly is business travel or rather that "business enabling travel" - certainly not to the level prior to the pandemic in the near to medium term.

    Long term, this may be where the enduring pain is felt, as business is a huge profit center for both airlines and hospitality. For typical airlines 66% of revenue comes from the premium economy, business, first so it may mean that the airlines and hotels that have abandoned the tiered class model already will be best placed to come out in the best shape. It may mean that connectivity, prized by cities to entice business may be harder to retain and is not truly a competitive edge anymore. It may mean more balanced regional development, or it may result in business concentration around airports that can retain enough travel volume so that the "if and when" business trips remain convenient.

    The crisis has two aspects the acute short term survival, and the longer term changes that result. Long term, can we keep all the airplanes in the air and hotels in profit by filling them with tourists and much fewer high paying premium guests?


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    #2887
    SNNUS
    Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭SNNUS


    Caranica wrote: »
    Booked a flight to Edinburgh next June yesterday. Fairly ridiculous prices if they're trying to get people back traveling. AL were 160 saver, Ryanair worked out at 130. Don't think I've ever paid that much to get to Edinburgh even at Hogmanay. Needed to get the flights booked though as dates are set in stone.

    You booked too far in advance, Airline fares that far out are always more
    as they know some people book very far out, Will be probably €30 in arpril/may..


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    #2888
    Caranica
    Registered Users Posts: 10,032 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    SNNUS wrote: »
    You booked too far in advance, Airline fares that far out are always more
    as they know some people book very far out, Will be probably €30 in arpril/may..

    The dates are very important and fixed. I would expect those flights to sell out in the coming weeks. Couldn't take the risk that more flights wouldn't be put on.


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    #2889
    Caranica
    Registered Users Posts: 10,032 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    On another note... If you have Covid, you might die on a plane :rolleyes:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/521786-woman-in-her-thirties-dies-of-covid-19-aboard-airplane?amp#click=https://t.co/moULNxOitr


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    #2890
    HTCOne
    Registered Users Posts: 869 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    Caranica wrote: »
    On another note... If you have Covid, you might die on a plane :rolleyes:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/521786-woman-in-her-thirties-dies-of-covid-19-aboard-airplane?amp#click=https://t.co/moULNxOitr

    RIP to the young lady. Flying on a pressurised aircraft with severe breathing difficulties/ pneumonia etc is extremely risky.

    There was a young lady (19 I think?) who dropped dead on the jet bridge leaving a DUB-SFO flight a couple of years ago IIRC. She was a smoker, overweight, on the pill and had been drinking heavily on the flight, all major risk factors in deep vein thrombosis / blood clots, which is what killed her.

    I remember a flight in our airspace diverted a few years ago due a young women having a seizure, she had only had brain surgery a couple of weeks prior.


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    #2891
    I see sheep
    Registered Users Posts: 1,666 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    Advice appreciated - Is there any danger booking Norwegian air for December flights?

    From a quick google they've got a gov loan to tide them over till the end of the year


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    #2892
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,142 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Of all the airlines Norwegian was in dire trouble long before COVID. Be sure to pay with a credit card


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    #2893
    WishUWereHere
    Registered Users Posts: 2,294 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

    One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.


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    #2894
    NH2013
    Registered Users Posts: 401 ✭✭NH2013


    WishUWereHere wrote: »
    Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

    One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.

    Wonder if that sort of retrenchment will mean the end to hopes that the DUB-HKG route will return next year?


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    #2895
    Jack1985
    Registered Users Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭Jack1985


    NH2013 wrote: »
    Wonder if that sort of retrenchment will mean the end to hopes that the DUB-HKG route will return next year?

    Don't think that would be a wild assumption unfortunately. Already heard one of the ME3 will be exiting, although haven’t publicly confirmed this intention yet. These routes won't be back quick certainly not in 2-5 years. Employees will have to be returned, re-trained, aircraft brought back from storage etc... nothing will be snapping back.

    The purge begins.


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    #2896
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,847 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    WishUWereHere wrote: »
    Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

    One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.

    They've also shut down Cathay Dragon with immediate effect.


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    #2897
    WishUWereHere
    Registered Users Posts: 2,294 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Cookiemunster wrote: »
    They've also shut down Cathay Dragon with immediate effect.

    Yes I forgot to mention that. Thanks


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    #2898
    Tenger
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,733 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    Caranica wrote: »
    On another note... If you have Covid, you might die on a plane :rolleyes:
    ......

    I’m gonna go off topic and point out that the vast majority of people don’t realise that aircraft are pressurised to approx 8000 ft. (As in the top of a decent sized mountain in the Alps or Pyrenees)
    People with breathing issues will be under strain.

    Personally I once operated to the US knowing I had a flu, my thinking was that I would go there, sit in the hotel for 24 hours drinking fluids (juice and water) and getting a rest to help my recovery. 6 hours into the flight I was having difficulty breathing, I didn’t need O2, but was a passenger for the last hour.

    Around the same time a good friend had pneumonia, their lung collapsed. They had to switch from cabin crew to another section as the doctors determined that they could not longer work as cabin crew due to the damage to their lungs.

    Jack1985 wrote: »
    Don't think that would be a wild assumption unfortunately. Already heard one of the ME3 will be exiting, although haven’t publicly confirmed this intention yet. These routes won't be back quick certainly not in 2-5 years. Employees will have to be returned, re-trained, aircraft brought back from storage etc... nothing will be snapping back.

    The purge begins.

    And that’s the thing, the impact on aviation is ongoing.
    The initial wave of closures, layoffs, bankruptcies was during the summer with the “low hanging fruit” going. But as the crisis continues the “purge” moves up the food chain and impacts more airlines.

    Poor Cathay were in a bad way even before Covid hit. They were very quick to mplement furloughs. Personally I’m surprised this additional action took so long.


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    #2899
    Steve
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 22,584 CMod ✭✭✭✭Steve


    WishUWereHere wrote: »
    Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

    One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.
    Just heard about that from an old sailing buddy who was flying for them, lives in HK.
    Last comment was
    "New contract has no redundancy provisions so don’t think this is over by a long way. I suspect sign over and then they have a choice of whomsoever they like to jettison."

    So sad. :(


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    #2900
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,591 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Some good news for once.. Airbus prepares to boost production of world's most popular passenger jet

    Link is behind paywall


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    #2901
    W1ll1s
    Registered Users Posts: 137 ✭✭W1ll1s


    Al last a grain of good news, but its [when market recovers] :(

    https://in.reuters.com/article/airbus-production-idINL8N2HD82Q


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    #2902
    California Dreamer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,515 ✭✭✭California Dreamer


    Jack1985 wrote: »
    Already heard one of the ME3 will be exiting,

    Can you say that its not EK or QR? ;)


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    #2903
    TRANQUILLO
    Registered Users Posts: 453 ✭✭TRANQUILLO


    Jack1985 wrote: »
    Don't think that would be a wild assumption unfortunately. Already heard one of the ME3 will be exiting, although haven’t publicly confirmed this intention yet. These routes won't be back quick certainly not in 2-5 years. Employees will have to be returned, re-trained, aircraft brought back from storage etc... nothing will be snapping back.

    The purge begins.

    One of the ME3 made all of their Dublin based engineers etc redundant in Q2 2020.


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    #2904
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Was in Dealz today and it’s interesting- they’re clearly selling a ton of the stuff (sweets/chocolates) that you’d usually only pick up in the airports “Travel Exclusives”. Shows the fall off in travel- they’ve obviously had to redirect all the stock they can’t sell due to the huge drop off in travel


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    #2905
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Pernod Ricard were down 64% in 'global travel retail' YOY. I'm surprised its even that low of a drop. That won't be turning up for cheapo resale as its entirely shelf stable product; although you could end up seeing it in normal offos.


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    #2906
    john boye
    Registered Users Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭john boye


    road_high wrote: »
    Was in Dealz today and it’s interesting- they’re clearly selling a ton of the stuff (sweets/chocolates) that you’d usually only pick up in the airports “Travel Exclusives”. Shows the fall off in travel- they’ve obviously had to redirect all the stock they can’t sell due to the huge drop off in travel

    Saw them myself last week and they were a LOT cheaper than they go for in the duty-free!


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    #2907
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    john boye wrote: »
    Saw them myself last week and they were a LOT cheaper than they go for in the duty-free!

    Yes I thought the same- at lesat half the price or less!! Must be some profit margin on it at airports


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    #2908
    Locker10a
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 4,155 Mod ✭✭✭✭Locker10a


    Quite a kick for the industry here when it’s already crippled

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/transmission-of-covid-19-on-flight-into-ireland-linked-to-59-infections-1.4390728


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    #2909
    Hotblack Desiato
    Registered Users Posts: 34,060 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    So maybe not entirely safe to be on a plane after all...

    Fingal County Council are certainly not competent to be making decisions about the most important piece of infrastructure on the island. They need to stick to badly designed cycle lanes and deciding on whether Mrs Murphy can have her kitchen extension.



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    #2910
    EchoIndia
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭EchoIndia


    Locker10a wrote: »
    Quite a kick for the industry here when it’s already crippled

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/transmission-of-covid-19-on-flight-into-ireland-linked-to-59-infections-1.4390728


    It occurred in the summer, which the IT omitted to say.
    https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624


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    #2911
    Locker10a
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 4,155 Mod ✭✭✭✭Locker10a


    EchoIndia wrote: »
    It occurred in the summer, which the IT omitted to say.
    https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624

    They mentioned it was when we had a very low incidence rate, so you could easily figure that out, but I’m not sure when it occurred is of much importance, it’s the fact it did and is in the media now, It won’t exactly be inspiring confidence for future travel without a vaccine


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