Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

3xh · 15-10-2020 10:44pm

MadYaker wrote: »

So they don't pay any salaries? We're all working for free are we, I wonder whats that in my bank acc so? Such nonsense.

You definitely don’t fully understand GDP and it’s limits then.

This has come up in another Covid thread today too. People are rehashing the media reports that GDP isn’t as bad now as the government forecasted at the start of this.

Jack1985 · 15-10-2020 10:52pm

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

I agree with some of what you say, but the idea that you have a 1 in 27 million chance of contracting COVID on a flight is nonsense, and really takes from the message that aircraft are in fact a relatively safe mode of transport, because it is demonstrably false, wildly inaccurate, and I think damages the message our industry is trying to deliver.

IATA has demonstrated how it came to this finding here; You've every right to dispute it but if you can demonstrate how you form the above conclusion with material to refence it here, I'd appreciate it.

If the industry thinks it's damaging, they'd be hounding IATA about it - They contributed to this analysis largely.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-09-08-012/

Jack1985 · 15-10-2020 10:53pm

circular flexing wrote: »

I'm not disputing the fact that aircraft themselves are probably safe though mask or no mask it's still a long time to spend in close contact with potentially infected people. The real risk in my view...

Therein lies the problem. None of that is backed up with facts I'm afraid. You are letting your own assumptions dictate the choices of others.

circular flexing wrote: »

Testing can give false positives and negatives and I would honestly question spending government resources supporting non-essential travel, particularly outbound.

Nobody expects the states testing capacity to be affected for mitigation measures to be put in place at our borders, that has been made clear by all in Aviation.

No test is completely accurate, there is not one that is 100% accurate, we have no silver bullet - You do realise we have false positives in HSE testing too? LAMP and Antigen products coming online will be game changers for the industry - 15-minute results at costs as low as $5.

There’s a narrative here that because there can be some false positives we shouldn’t bother and it’s such a laughable position.

circular flexing wrote: »

And ISTR English residents having to scramble home from Spain and France when the government there suddenly changed the quarantine advice. Stories around that would definitely put people off traveling.

I wouldn't be using the UK hammer head response at the tail end of Summer as stories for basing people's assumptions on. I referred to the UK to demonstrate demand for travel that was there, the UK's response was all over the shop - It remains so.

15-10-2020 11:07pm

Friday newspaper:

ProfessorPlum · 15-10-2020 11:08pm

Jack1985 wrote: »

IATA has demonstrated how it came to this finding here; You've every right to dispute it but if you can demonstrate how you form the above conclusion with material to refence it here, I'd appreciate it.

If the industry thinks it's damaging, they'd be hounding IATA about it - They contributed to this analysis largely.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-09-08-012/

I have read it. The reason the numbers are wildly inaccurate is precisely how IATA came to its finding.
They are only counting positive cases that have been reviewed and published in medical journals. Even IATA suggested that they might only have captured 10% of actual cases - and they’re still being disingenuous here.
One flight (Vietnam Airlines - London Hanoi) had 15 positive cases. 12 out of 20 passengers seated in business class with one symptomatic passenger became infected. Yet we’re to believe that in total since this pandemic began, that only twice that number again have been infected on aircraft??
That fligh was in early March, yet it only achieved publication in September. That’s a 6 month lag in reporting of data in a rapidly evolving pandemic.
And of course, the idea that even 10% of cases would be captured and published in medical journals is ridiculous. If 1% or even 0.01% were, I would be shocked.
Estimating the prevalence of disease in a population by counting cases in peer reviewed journals is bad science.

MrMusician18 · 15-10-2020 11:21pm

Jack1985 wrote: »

IATA has demonstrated how it came to this finding here; You've every right to dispute it but if you can demonstrate how you form the above conclusion with material to refence it here, I'd appreciate it.

If the industry thinks it's damaging, they'd be hounding IATA about it - They contributed to this analysis largely.

https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-09-08-012/

It isn't the travelling thats the issue, i.e. the hour or two spent sitting on an aircraft. Its the behaviour of people travelling - its the fact that holidaymakers move about a lot, shop, visit museums, eat in several restaurants and would interact with well over 50 people a day.

Aircraft are safe, particularly with the low load factors seen at present. Going on holiday and adhering to a message of reduce your contacts to the minimum are, unfortunately, incompatible with one another.

HTCOne · 15-10-2020 11:25pm

Catching COVID on board an aircraft is “virtually impossible”.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

We opened the restaurants, no surge.
We opened the hotels, no surge.
We opened the bars, no surge.

We open the schools and colleges, massive surge.

Travel has zero to do with the mess we find ourselves in.

HTCOne · 15-10-2020 11:37pm

bk wrote: »

The government are currently pumping hundreds of millions into the public transport companies (DB/BE/IR/GA/Luas), even giving some support to the private coach companies, to keep them going with passenger numbers way down.

They should do similar for Aviation. Though I wonder if the airlines are really asking for it. They seem more focused on wanting things open, then asking for support.

At least 3 Irish airlines and at least one other major Irish aviation company I’m aware of informally approached the Government regarding the possibility of a bailout, all were told no.

15-10-2020 11:40pm

Anyone know what's going on with the Ryanair site? Thousands of flights marked as 'sold out' when there's not a hope it's true. Includes fights I already have booked that haven't been cancelled.

Contacted them twice, may as well have asked the wall.

ProfessorPlum · 15-10-2020 11:54pm

HTCOne wrote: »

Catching COVID on board an aircraft is “virtually impossible”.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

Again, that’s a misrepresentation of the study.
The ‘virtually impossible’ quote is from United’s head of customer something, NOT from the scientists who conducted the study.
While I can’t find that study published online (quick search, granted) this report in the Washington Post about it seems quite a bit more balanced.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/defense-department-study-finds-low-risk-of-coronavirus-infection-through-air-on-a-packed-airline-flight/2020/10/15/e84aa092-0e30-11eb-8a35-237ef1eb2ef7_story.html%3foutputType=amp

Interestingly, they quote the author of the study that IATA used to assert their ‘1 in 27 million’ claim.
“It’s just bad epidemiology, it’s just bad math”. (more in the article linked, won’t copy and paste for some reason)

Again, I do believe that airline travel is relatively safe, but misrepresenting data, especially safety data, undermines our professionalism in the public eye. I think it’s a backwards step.

Jack1985 · 16-10-2020 12:00am

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

...One flight (Vietnam Airlines - London Hanoi) had 15 positive cases. 12 out of 20 passengers seated in business class with one symptomatic passenger became infected...

The context also of that is the date was 01/03/20, at the time there was no mask mandate and the NIHE remarked they did not have data on passenger movement such as lavatory use. That passenger who as you remarked was symptomatic and had not been tested only thermally screened and had not informed anyone of symptom onset.

Clearly look there is a massive elephant in the room in all of this, we can't negate the fact that there is a one to three-day period prior to symptom onset of asymptomatic transmission in an incubation period that can vary between 2-12 days - That's lots of contacts to trace etc. This belief that we will get a vaccine shouldn’t be relied upon as fact – it creates this false reassurance that may not become reality. That’s why we must deal as best as we can with where we are now. There is positive reading below about the prospects ahead for LAMP/Antigen testing which is much cheaper and as accurate as PCR.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7377665/
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3789/rr
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/15-minute-coronavirus-test-gets-the-green-light-for-a-european-rollout.html

Asymptomatic transmission is what has the World in such a state. By using the best mitigation measures we have such as mask wearing reduces the risk massively, I’d actually like to see the industry go further and ban bloody visors to ensure reduced levels of transmission even as minute as they are in the safest form of transport.

We do safety and we do it well, I have no doubt the industry will over come this, but the casualties along the way shouldn’t be a result of failed policy that is compounding realities out there. Ireland isn’t alone in having demonstrated bad judgment (it's probably been one of the worst IMO), further consensus in Europe in harmonised approaches where possible is needed.

The below where Aer Lingus stood, because effectively it could not operate and the state as a whole, just wasn't ever acceptable. It was a failed response from Gov listening to medics at NPHET who called it wrong.

https://twitter.com/eurocontrolDG/status/1293092933755961345

https://twitter.com/eurocontrolDG/status/1296734555081187328

Jack1985 · 16-10-2020 12:04am

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

Anyone know what's going on with the Ryanair site? Thousands of flights marked as 'sold out' when there's not a hope it's true. Includes fights I already have booked that haven't been cancelled.

Contacted them twice, may as well have asked the wall.

I would imagine it's off sale as it's about to be canx, they will contact you more than likely over the next few days.

HTCOne · 16-10-2020 12:13am

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Again, that’s a misrepresentation of the study.
The ‘virtually impossible’ quote is from United’s head of customer something, NOT from the scientists who conducted the study.
While I can’t find that study published online (quick search, granted) this report in the Washington Post about it seems quite a bit more balanced.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/defense-department-study-finds-low-risk-of-coronavirus-infection-through-air-on-a-packed-airline-flight/2020/10/15/e84aa092-0e30-11eb-8a35-237ef1eb2ef7_story.html%3foutputType=amp

Interestingly, they quote the author of the study that IATA used to assert their ‘1 in 27 million’ claim.
“It’s just bad epidemiology, it’s just bad math”. (more in the article linked, won’t copy and paste for some reason)

Again, I do believe that airline travel is relatively safe, but misrepresenting data, especially safety data, undermines our professionalism in the public eye. I think it’s a backwards step.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

The study was conducted on the 767 and 777, older aircraft with less advanced filtration systems.

"In fact, I would tell you that in my observations, and I've flown commercially since the pandemic started, being on a commercial airplane with HEPA filtration is probably one of the safest places that you can be," Lyons said.

There are some qualifiers, Lyons noted. The conditions that yielded positive results, he said, involved aircraft with HEPA filtration and "a very, very high air exchange rate of every two to five minutes or two to three minutes.” But under those conditions, he indicated, particle spread rates were even lower than in a conventional indoor setting.

The air on the A320 series is replaced ever 2-3 mins, and all Airbus passenger aircraft are now fitted with HEPA, so would perform at least as good if not better than these old Boeings.

Aircraft are quite simply an extremely safe place to be when it comes to COVID. I’d encourage you to read up the lessons learned from SARS spreading on an Air China flight years ago, and how the air filtration systems in the industry were totally overhauled as a redult.

ProfessorPlum · 16-10-2020 12:23am

HTCOne wrote: »

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

The study was conducted on the 767 and 777, older aircraft with less advanced filtration systems.

"In fact, I would tell you that in my observations, and I've flown commercially since the pandemic started, being on a commercial airplane with HEPA filtration is probably one of the safest places that you can be," Lyons said.

There are some qualifiers, Lyons noted. The conditions that yielded positive results, he said, involved aircraft with HEPA filtration and "a very, very high air exchange rate of every two to five minutes or two to three minutes.” But under those conditions, he indicated, particle spread rates were even lower than in a conventional indoor setting.

The air on the A320 series is replaced ever 2-3 mins, and all Airbus passenger aircraft are now fitted with HEPA, so would perform at least as good if not better than these old Boeings.

Aircraft are quite simply an extremely safe place to be when it comes to COVID. I’d encourage you to read up the lessons learned from SARS spreading on an Air China flight years ago, and how the air filtration systems in the industry were totally overhauled as a redult.

Thanks, I’m not arguing that aircraft are not safe places, and I’m fully up to speed with the tech specs.

The limitations of the study, acknowledged by the authors, rest around the fact that it was based around mannequins, sitting in their seats for duration of the flight, not touching surfaces, not talking or eating, not removing their masks, and did not take into account larger droplet spread. In other words, ideal conditions.
Under ideal conditions, the rhythm method (‘natural family planning’) has similar efficacy as the oral contraceptive pill in preventing pregnancy. But no one really argues that it comes close in ‘real life’.

Stevek101 · 16-10-2020 8:37am

Looks like Ryanair have really cut back at Dublin also. Many routes dropped.

IngazZagni · 16-10-2020 9:57am

Stevek101 wrote: »

Looks like Ryanair have really cut back at Dublin also. Many routes dropped.

It's scary. A good example is the Madrid route. Last winter it operated at an 18x weekly frequency. This winter it'll operate 2x weekly.

Also it appears that Ryanair will maintain a 1x daily Stansted flight from Cork this winter but that'll be the only route. At Shannon, Stansted will have a 5x weekly frequency and Manchester 2x weekly and that's it.

Cookiemunster · 16-10-2020 10:06am

IngazZagni wrote: »

It's scary. A good example is the Madrid route. Last winter it operated at an 18x weekly frequency. This winter it'll operate 2x weekly.

Also it appears that Ryanair will maintain a 1x daily Stansted flight from Cork this winter but that'll be the only route. At Shannon, Stansted will have a 5x weekly frequency and Manchester 2x weekly and that's it.

There looks a weekly flight to Wroclaw from Shannon too according to the airports press release yesterday.

Padraig Mor · 16-10-2020 10:29am

IngazZagni wrote: »

Also it appears that Ryanair will maintain a 1x daily Stansted flight from Cork this winter but that'll be the only route. .

Think they have two Polish routes as well (not sure of frequency). All Spain / Canaries routes seem to be gone for winter. I'm actually amazed - would have thought they may have kept a couple of once per week routes using Spanish based planes.

Stevek101 · 16-10-2020 10:44am

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Think they have two Polish routes as well (not sure of frequency). All Spain / Canaries routes seem to be gone for winter. I'm actually amazed - would have thought they may have kept a couple of once per week routes using Spanish based planes.

All Canaries bases are closed. The Spanish never really signed up to the new pay deal before this all started.

IngazZagni · 16-10-2020 7:04pm

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Think they have two Polish routes as well (not sure of frequency). All Spain / Canaries routes seem to be gone for winter. I'm actually amazed - would have thought they may have kept a couple of once per week routes using Spanish based planes.

It's a shame they couldn't maintain a Cork based aircraft operating these but I suppose the Buzz subsidiary operates at a lower cost base. Only self employed style contracts exist over there.

Jack1985 · 16-10-2020 7:11pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

It's a shame they couldn't maintain a Cork based aircraft operating these but I suppose the Buzz subsidiary operates at a lower cost base. Only self employed style contracts exist over there.

That's it in one, there'll be demand for those routes especially around Christmas. The only routes FR are operating from ORK/SNN are;

ORK-GDN
ORK-KTW
ORK-STN

SNN-MAN
SNN-STN
SNN-WRO

Padraig Mor · 16-10-2020 7:48pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

It's a shame they couldn't maintain a Cork based aircraft operating these but I suppose the Buzz subsidiary operates at a lower cost base. Only self employed style contracts exist over there.

Two of my cousins in Cork are captains with FR so agree it's a shame! Family men, must be tough...

16-10-2020 7:52pm

Stevek101 wrote: »

Looks like Ryanair have really cut back at Dublin also. Many routes dropped.

I spent 2 hours on with them yesterday trying to find out of the Flights to Spain at christmas are cancelled and if the entire schedule is gone as all the flights were 'sold out'. Guy just kept repeating a mantra without answering anything.

Ryanair are very dishonest in how they handle these things. If the flights cancelled, just tell me so I can make other arrangements FFS!

Padraig Mor · 16-10-2020 8:25pm

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

I spent 2 hours on with them yesterday trying to find out of the Flights to Spain at christmas are cancelled and if the entire schedule is gone as all the flights were 'sold out'. Guy just kept repeating a mantra without answering anything.

Ryanair are very dishonest in how they handle these things. If the flights cancelled, just tell me so I can make other arrangements FFS!

'Sold out' generally means it's been scheduled for cancellation AFAIK - you should know more in a day or two.

Padraig Mor · 16-10-2020 8:30pm

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Think they have two Polish routes as well (not sure of frequency). All Spain / Canaries routes seem to be gone for winter. I'm actually amazed - would have thought they may have kept a couple of once per week routes using Spanish based planes.

Actually just had a look - not alone are the winter flights gone, so are all the ones for next summer which were already on sale! Including the three winter ones.

16-10-2020 9:48pm

Padraig Mor wrote: »

'Sold out' generally means it's been scheduled for cancellation AFAIK - you should know more in a day or two.

I know now, the entire schedule has been shelved until April but no answer on of my cooked flights are still happening.

They could have told me yesterday but now, insisted that sold out meant sold out when we both know that couldn't possible be true.

Now I'm told the flights absolutely aren't cancelled so what? They cancel when I can't get a reasonable alternative option?

Credit Checker Moose · 16-10-2020 10:01pm

They will cancel them shortly. Sold out means cancelled in Ryanair speak.

MrMusician18 · 17-10-2020 1:20am

HTCOne wrote: »

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/risk-covid-19-exposure-planes-virtually-nonexistent-masked/story?id=73616599

The study was conducted on the 767 and 777, older aircraft with less advanced filtration systems.

"In fact, I would tell you that in my observations, and I've flown commercially since the pandemic started, being on a commercial airplane with HEPA filtration is probably one of the safest places that you can be," Lyons said.

There are some qualifiers, Lyons noted. The conditions that yielded positive results, he said, involved aircraft with HEPA filtration and "a very, very high air exchange rate of every two to five minutes or two to three minutes.” But under those conditions, he indicated, particle spread rates were even lower than in a conventional indoor setting.

The air on the A320 series is replaced ever 2-3 mins, and all Airbus passenger aircraft are now fitted with HEPA, so would perform at least as good if not better than these old Boeings.

Aircraft are quite simply an extremely safe place to be when it comes to COVID. I’d encourage you to read up the lessons learned from SARS spreading on an Air China flight years ago, and how the air filtration systems in the industry were totally overhauled as a redult.

Even if you are willing to accept that, the real issue with travel imo is not the travelling aspect per se, but the behaviour of tourists. Tourists generally will have a lot of contacts as they go about their business, eating in restaurants, drinking in pubs and experiencing sights and culture

So if we are saying to the travelling public, that yes flying is safe, but when you arrive you won't be permitted to do the touristy things that you want to do, then why would they come in the first place? Business outside of aviation and tourism/hospitality doesn't really seem to be missing international travel either.

HTCOne · 17-10-2020 10:58am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Even if you are willing to accept that, the real issue with travel imo is not the travelling aspect per se, but the behaviour of tourists. Tourists generally will have a lot of contacts as they go about their business, eating in restaurants, drinking in pubs and experiencing sights and culture

So if we are saying to the travelling public, that yes flying is safe, but when you arrive you won't be permitted to do the touristy things that you want to do, then why would they come in the first place? Business outside of aviation and tourism/hospitality doesn't really seem to be missing international travel either.

Well yes, Hardware shops, hairdressers, are unlikely to miss the tourists, but 1 in 10 people in Ireland work in hospitality, with a further 140k in aviation. There’s businesses you wouldn’t think of being hammered too, like the pharmacies and phone shops in Dublin city center apparently replacing medication / phones etc. I wouldn’t have thought of those but there was a chap on the radio the other week saying his rent for his Pharmacy was 40k per month and he is down more than that from just losing all the shampoo, toothpaste etc sales to the tourists, let alone medicine.

I think it is unfair to assume tourists interacting all over the place in bars and restaurants is a cause of the virus spread; remember we are where we are with zero tourists. Holohan and Varadkar have both been out in the last couple of days stating the current surge is mainly down to home visits, weekend family dinners etc. Earlier in the year it was house parties. The number of clusters in bars and restaurants has been very small throughout the pandemic, because it is in the interest of those business owners to ensure and enforce cleanliness, social distancing etc.

Tenzor07 · 17-10-2020 11:53am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

So if we are saying to the travelling public, that yes flying is safe, but when you arrive you won't be permitted to do the touristy things that you want to do, then why would they come in the first place? Business outside of aviation and tourism/hospitality doesn't really seem to be missing international travel either.

Most places around Europe this summer kept their doors open, cultural sights, bars/restaurants, shops etc..Ireland didn't.

And to say that business outside aviation didn't miss tourism is not understanding what aviation brings to many parts of the world...
I guess i'll have to explain it to you... Every international traveller spends money on goods and services, which contribute to municipal/general taxes, enabling local Governments in places like the Greek islands to use that money towards local roads, schools, healthcare facilities, preservation of national monuments, environmental improvements all which benefit the people who live there.. Without international travel the end result can cause real poverty for people who rely directly and indirectly on it...

Inquitus · 17-10-2020 11:59am

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Most places around Europe this summer kept their doors open, cultural sights, bars/restaurants, shops etc..Ireland didn't.

And to say that business outside aviation didn't miss tourism is not understanding what aviation brings to many parts of the world...
I guess i'll have to explain it to you... Every international traveller spends money on goods and services, which contribute to municipal/general taxes, enabling local Governments in places like the Greek islands to use that money towards local roads, schools, healthcare facilities, preservation of national monuments, environmental improvements all which benefit the people who live there.. Without international travel the end result can cause real poverty for people who rely directly and indirectly on it...

There were a lot of Staycations though, so while say Dublin City Centre was devastated, on the other side of things Boat rentals for pleasure cruisers had their best year ever. Some areas have been disproportionately hit, and others have done reasonably well over the Summer.

Tenzor07 · 17-10-2020 12:06pm

Inquitus wrote: »

There were a lot of Staycations though, so while say Dublin City Centre was devastated, on the other side of things Boat rentals for pleasure cruisers had their best year ever. Some areas have been disproportionately hit, and others have done reasonably well over the Summer.

Of course, domestic tourism had a small surge in mid/late summer, but nowhere near enough to sustain tourism to the levels that international tourism would have, most of the prices are for U.S and Asian tourists who would spend a lot more in the country...
It's possible to increase international tourism if its managed accordingly.

Caranica · 17-10-2020 12:13pm

Booked a flight to Edinburgh next June yesterday. Fairly ridiculous prices if they're trying to get people back traveling. AL were 160 saver, Ryanair worked out at 130. Don't think I've ever paid that much to get to Edinburgh even at Hogmanay. Needed to get the flights booked though as dates are set in stone.

Tenzor07 · 17-10-2020 12:18pm

Caranica wrote: »

Booked a flight to Edinburgh next June yesterday. Fairly ridiculous prices if they're trying to get people back traveling. AL were 160 saver, Ryanair worked out at 130. Don't think I've ever paid that much to get to Edinburgh even at Hogmanay. Needed to get the flights booked though as dates are set in stone.

June 2021? Welcome to the next few years of air travel, reduced capacity, higher prices as result, after November you won't find many more €40 return flights, more likely to be €60 one way....

MrMusician18 · 19-10-2020 1:06am

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Most places around Europe this summer kept their doors open, cultural sights, bars/restaurants, shops etc..Ireland didn't.

And to say that business outside aviation didn't miss tourism is not understanding what aviation brings to many parts of the world...
I guess i'll have to explain it to you... Every international traveller spends money on goods and services, which contribute to municipal/general taxes, enabling local Governments in places like the Greek islands to use that money towards local roads, schools, healthcare facilities, preservation of national monuments, environmental improvements all which benefit the people who live there.. Without international travel the end result can cause real poverty for people who rely directly and indirectly on it...

I don't argue with any of that. Any industry that depends on the spend of travellers is going to suffer terribly when there are no travellers. My point is broader in that there are many business that don't depend on traveller spend but were thought prior to the pandemic to depend on travel and connectivity to enable their business. Covid has challenged this assumption and that meeting where the executives needed to fly across oceans to complete that merger or acquisition which was once thought essential, was actually potentially unnecessary.

Everyone enjoys a holiday, so once this passes (and it will pass) I expect tourism to rebound quite quickly. Especially with pent up demand. What I don't expect to come back quickly is business travel or rather that "business enabling travel" - certainly not to the level prior to the pandemic in the near to medium term.

Long term, this may be where the enduring pain is felt, as business is a huge profit center for both airlines and hospitality. For typical airlines 66% of revenue comes from the premium economy, business, first so it may mean that the airlines and hotels that have abandoned the tiered class model already will be best placed to come out in the best shape. It may mean that connectivity, prized by cities to entice business may be harder to retain and is not truly a competitive edge anymore. It may mean more balanced regional development, or it may result in business concentration around airports that can retain enough travel volume so that the "if and when" business trips remain convenient.

The crisis has two aspects the acute short term survival, and the longer term changes that result. Long term, can we keep all the airplanes in the air and hotels in profit by filling them with tourists and much fewer high paying premium guests?

SNNUS · 19-10-2020 1:37pm

Caranica wrote: »

Booked a flight to Edinburgh next June yesterday. Fairly ridiculous prices if they're trying to get people back traveling. AL were 160 saver, Ryanair worked out at 130. Don't think I've ever paid that much to get to Edinburgh even at Hogmanay. Needed to get the flights booked though as dates are set in stone.

You booked too far in advance, Airline fares that far out are always more
as they know some people book very far out, Will be probably €30 in arpril/may..

Caranica · 20-10-2020 1:18am

SNNUS wrote: »

You booked too far in advance, Airline fares that far out are always more
as they know some people book very far out, Will be probably €30 in arpril/may..

The dates are very important and fixed. I would expect those flights to sell out in the coming weeks. Couldn't take the risk that more flights wouldn't be put on.

Caranica · 20-10-2020 1:19am

On another note... If you have Covid, you might die on a plane :rolleyes:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/521786-woman-in-her-thirties-dies-of-covid-19-aboard-airplane?amp#click=https://t.co/moULNxOitr

HTCOne · 20-10-2020 11:21am

Caranica wrote: »

On another note... If you have Covid, you might die on a plane :rolleyes:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/521786-woman-in-her-thirties-dies-of-covid-19-aboard-airplane?amp#click=https://t.co/moULNxOitr

RIP to the young lady. Flying on a pressurised aircraft with severe breathing difficulties/ pneumonia etc is extremely risky.

There was a young lady (19 I think?) who dropped dead on the jet bridge leaving a DUB-SFO flight a couple of years ago IIRC. She was a smoker, overweight, on the pill and had been drinking heavily on the flight, all major risk factors in deep vein thrombosis / blood clots, which is what killed her.

I remember a flight in our airspace diverted a few years ago due a young women having a seizure, she had only had brain surgery a couple of weeks prior.

I see sheep · 20-10-2020 11:26am

Advice appreciated - Is there any danger booking Norwegian air for December flights?

From a quick google they've got a gov loan to tide them over till the end of the year

goingnowhere · 20-10-2020 12:09pm

Of all the airlines Norwegian was in dire trouble long before COVID. Be sure to pay with a credit card

WishUWereHere · 21-10-2020 7:22pm

Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.

NH2013 · 21-10-2020 8:10pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.

Wonder if that sort of retrenchment will mean the end to hopes that the DUB-HKG route will return next year?

Jack1985 · 21-10-2020 8:20pm

NH2013 wrote: »

Wonder if that sort of retrenchment will mean the end to hopes that the DUB-HKG route will return next year?

Don't think that would be a wild assumption unfortunately. Already heard one of the ME3 will be exiting, although haven’t publicly confirmed this intention yet. These routes won't be back quick certainly not in 2-5 years. Employees will have to be returned, re-trained, aircraft brought back from storage etc... nothing will be snapping back.

The purge begins.

Cookiemunster · 21-10-2020 8:32pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.

They've also shut down Cathay Dragon with immediate effect.

WishUWereHere · 21-10-2020 10:13pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

They've also shut down Cathay Dragon with immediate effect.

Yes I forgot to mention that. Thanks

Tenger · 22-10-2020 12:05am

Caranica wrote: »

On another note... If you have Covid, you might die on a plane :rolleyes:
......

I’m gonna go off topic and point out that the vast majority of people don’t realise that aircraft are pressurised to approx 8000 ft. (As in the top of a decent sized mountain in the Alps or Pyrenees)
People with breathing issues will be under strain.

Personally I once operated to the US knowing I had a flu, my thinking was that I would go there, sit in the hotel for 24 hours drinking fluids (juice and water) and getting a rest to help my recovery. 6 hours into the flight I was having difficulty breathing, I didn’t need O2, but was a passenger for the last hour.

Around the same time a good friend had pneumonia, their lung collapsed. They had to switch from cabin crew to another section as the doctors determined that they could not longer work as cabin crew due to the damage to their lungs.

Jack1985 wrote: »

Don't think that would be a wild assumption unfortunately. Already heard one of the ME3 will be exiting, although haven’t publicly confirmed this intention yet. These routes won't be back quick certainly not in 2-5 years. Employees will have to be returned, re-trained, aircraft brought back from storage etc... nothing will be snapping back.

The purge begins.

And that’s the thing, the impact on aviation is ongoing.
The initial wave of closures, layoffs, bankruptcies was during the summer with the “low hanging fruit” going. But as the crisis continues the “purge” moves up the food chain and impacts more airlines.

Poor Cathay were in a bad way even before Covid hit. They were very quick to mplement furloughs. Personally I’m surprised this additional action took so long.

Steve · 22-10-2020 7:09am

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Saw on BBC this morning, Cathay Pacific are laying off another 8,500 staff. Gosh where will the carnage end?

One can only feel for those in the aviation industry.

Just heard about that from an old sailing buddy who was flying for them, lives in HK.
Last comment was
"New contract has no redundancy provisions so don’t think this is over by a long way. I suspect sign over and then they have a choice of whomsoever they like to jettison."

So sad.

PommieBast · 22-10-2020 7:26pm

Some good news for once.. Airbus prepares to boost production of world's most popular passenger jet

Link is behind paywall

W1ll1s · 22-10-2020 9:07pm

Al last a grain of good news, but its [when market recovers]

https://in.reuters.com/article/airbus-production-idINL8N2HD82Q

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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