100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 12:30pm

2:25 Ascot

One Lucky Lady on the face of it looks well out of this race from out of the handicap, but ran a great race last year in the Martin Pipe at the festival ,when probably doing a bit too much in front too soon. If she is to get back into that race she will need to get involved here. She has bits of form that of here mark here which is 5lbs out of the handicap she could well have a chance. Mares can be odd at the best of times but a reappearance of form here after a poor enough chase experience despite winning a novice chase could bode well for her given her big price. She’s worth the risk at a big price

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 12:45pm

Haydock 12:20

This is going to be an unmerciful slog and I went looking at the bottom of the weights for bit of form and found that Who Owns Me loves the mud is sure to stay and after a couple of poor performance’s is down to a winnable mark judging by his old form. He even has a 2nd 2 starts ago of a much higher mark that proves he not completely out of form. This race is likely to suit and at 20/1 he is worth a small bet.

1 Point EW 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 4:30pm

I Think that was a great return by Sprinter Sacre and with improvement to come the 3/1 NRNB that is available now will look massive on the day with the sun on his back and good ground.

I have 2 pts at 5/2 NRNB already and im going to top up with another 2 here.

2 Pts win 3/1 NRNB Totesport / Betfred

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 5:14pm

Champion Hurdle

I’ve seen enough Jezki looks better than ever this year so far just going down to hurricane fly on soft around Leopardstown, and for me should be favourite for the Champion Hurdle. His main opponent from last year isn’t there this year and on good ground he seems to me to be a bit clear of the new one and Faugheen on all known form. 5/1 is great value.

2 Points win 5/1 NRNB Various

longshotvalue · 17-01-2015 9:28pm

Leopardstown 2:50

Quick one while I have a bit of time and the price is right for tomorrow. Savello is of a much lower hurdles mark than his chase mark and if he can bring any of that form to this race 25/1 is going to look big. It’s the right Jockey/Trainer combo for this type of race.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

sdoc13 · 17-01-2015 9:48pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 2:50

Quick one while I have a bit of time and the price is right for tomorrow. Savello is of a much lower hurdles mark than his chase mark and if he can bring any of that form to this race 25/1 is going to look big. It’s the right Jockey/Trainer combo for this type of race.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

Stanjames 28s but only 4 places for anyone interested.

Shemale · 17-01-2015 10:49pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 2:50

Quick one while I have a bit of time and the price is right for tomorrow. Savello is of a much lower hurdles mark than his chase mark and if he can bring any of that form to this race 25/1 is going to look big. It’s the right Jockey/Trainer combo for this type of race.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

I reckon he will go very close, did a reverse forecast with Sea Beat

longshotvalue · 18-01-2015 1:19pm

Leopardstown 2:20

If Marito was still trained by Willie Mullins he would be one of the favourites here. He came back after a year break with a very decent run at Tramore, and has some exceptional form on heavy ground. There is a 5lbs claimer on today and if he is up to it, he should be able to perform of this mark. This trip is ideal and 22/1 is too big.

1 Point win 22/1 Betvictor and Stan James

longshotvalue · 22-01-2015 8:01am

Thyestes Chase Gowran

Very tough race as it is every year, but I’m going to go with a couple of novices from last year at big enough prices. My Murphy has solid form, and has run well this year in both the Paddy Power and the Troytown. He is down a couple of pounds here and with proven heavy ground form and the step up in trip slightly from those races he really should be right in the firing line here at what looks a big price on Betfair of 23. Toon River has been gradually coming into form this year and hopefully can continue that today at a huge price. He has a bit of course form but would have to prove he stays this far. He looks worth a shot at 44 on Betfair.

1 Point win My Murphy 23 Betfair
1 Point win Toon River 44 Betfair

Peintre Celebre · 22-01-2015 1:36pm

Toon River the only one I'd be tempted by but the ground would be concerning. It was reported he wanted better ground but 44 is big.

rossom · 22-01-2015 3:43pm

I've backed My Murphy myself

SQLDBA · 22-01-2015 5:24pm

Had My Murphy at 16/1 ew. Cheers

longshotvalue · 23-01-2015 7:12pm

Cheltenham 3:35

Reve De Sivola looks almost forgotten here. He is an in and out performer but on soft ground here against horses that simply haven’t seen his type of game performance before 6/1 looks positively huge. He may not need to get to the level of his last performance at Ascot when he wore down about as good as yardstick as you’re likely to get in Zarkandar. He may not be favourite in my head but he is 3/1 at the most and 50% price margins can’t be ignored. The newcomers to this level have a fair bit to prove yet.

3 Points win 6/1 Ladbrokes Stan James

longshotvalue · 23-01-2015 7:42pm

3:15 Doncaster

Vino Greigo has been pretty shocking this year but, there looks to be better ground here tomorrow and he is down to below his last winning mark. I’d be afraid to pass up the 25/1 in case he is going to put it in tomorrow and I wasn’t on. He’ll most likely win at a decent price this year at some stage.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally.

ste2010 · 23-01-2015 7:56pm

aidankkk wrote: »

3:15 Doncaster

Vino Greigo has been pretty shocking this year but, there looks to be better ground here tomorrow and he is down to below his last winning mark. I’d be afraid to pass up the 25/1 in case he is going to put it in tomorrow and I wasn’t on. He’ll most likely win at a decent price this year at some stage.

1 Point win 25/1 Generally.

I was on him the last day and about to pull the trigger tomorrow but then I noted the jockey booking! Would it turn you off? Where is Jamie Moore?

longshotvalue · 24-01-2015 11:31am

1:50 Cheltenham

I went with The Giant Bolster last year in this as one of my most confident bets of the year, and although this race is much tougher, I still feel he is the value at the prices here. The top 3 in the betting have it to prove that they are up to his standard around here over this trip and 13/2 looks a decent price.

2 Points win 13/2 Generally

longshotvalue · 24-01-2015 11:45am

Cheltenham 2:25

My Gut here is that Big Fella Thanks might just have been given a shot here by the handicapper. 13yo’s don’t win many races around here but he is below his last winning mark and is just too big a price at 28/1 not to have a tiny bet. He ran well on his reappearance last time for a long way and just got tired at the end in Heavy ground. He can build on that.

1 Point win 28/1 VCbet / Stan James

Gringo180 · 24-01-2015 3:32pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham 2:25

My Gut here is that Big Fella Thanks might just have been given a shot here by the handicapper. 13yo’s don’t win many races around here but he is below his last winning mark and is just too big a price at 28/1 not to have a tiny bet. He ran well on his reappearance last time for a long way and just got tired at the end in Heavy ground. He can build on that.

1 Point win 28/1 VCbet / Stan James

No way

:(

Great shout all the same just ran out of steam the last 100 yards

longshotvalue · 24-01-2015 3:34pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

No way :(

Great shout all the same just ran out of steam the last 100 yards

. Feeeeccckkkkkkkkkkk..

24-01-2015 4:11pm

Jeez Aidan that was some pick. I followed you on it. The poor dog is still shaking after hearing my screaming!!

Peintre Celebre · 24-01-2015 10:08pm

Two horses done at 1.12 and 1.17 aidan. Safe to say today was not your day

longshotvalue · 31-01-2015 12:19pm

2:05 FFos Las

I’ve had a decent amount of success here just going for something with bottom weight in heavy ground but when the possibly best horse in the race is carrying that and at a big price it makes it an easy selection. Williams Wishes probably hasn’t progressed as much as hoped this year but he has been running in top class races over fences and apart from his last run , has more or less been running up to his higher chasing mark. He is in here with a 10lbs claimer on today giving him a nice racing weight and the trainer certainly likes winners around here. There is step up in trip to contend with but that looks a positive. 18/1 looks well overpriced.

2 Points EW 18/1

longshotvalue · 31-01-2015 12:32pm

2:25 Sandown

Grumeti is the outsider of the field here but my gut is that he will improve here for the step up in trip and after looking at his last run again he is a tough as it gets when he is putting it in. He is more of an 8/1 shot here so ill have a small bet at 14/1 just in case.

1 Point win 14/1 Stan James

longshotvalue · 31-01-2015 12:38pm

3:00 Sandown

Imperial Leader has been a bit of a disappointment is his last few races, but looking at his history he needs soft ground, and given that he is getting that here and is of a decent mark he should get competitive. HE is back from a break here but that isn’t much of a negative and 8/1 looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 8/1 Various

longshotvalue · 06-02-2015 12:28am

Betfair Hurdle

I was waiting for the confirmed field and nrnb to come out to have a go at Wicklow Brave here. He has been a bit of a disappointment since his very good novice form, but his season may have been planned with this in mind. He had run here earlier in the season and it didn't go well but it seemed at the time a strange race to put him in and i'm hopeful that it was just a precursor to this race. He ran really well in the Supreme at the festival but didn't quite see it up the hill. That indicated to me he will like this strong run race and i'm not about to let Willie Mullins only runner , who has some very decent form go of at 33/1.

2 Points EW 33/1 5 Places Bet36

ste2010 · 06-02-2015 9:30am

aidankkk wrote: »

Betfair Hurdle

I was waiting for the confirmed field and nrnb to come out to have a go at Wicklow Brave here. He has been a bit of a disappointment since his very good novice form, but his season may have been planned with this in mind. He had run here earlier in the season and it didn't go well but it seemed at the time a strange race to put him in and i'm hopeful that it was just a precursor to this race. He ran really well in the Supreme at the festival but didn't quite see it up the hill. That indicated to me he will like this strong run race and i'm not about to let Willie Mullins only runner , who has some very decent form go of at 33/1.

2 Points EW 33/1 5 Places Bet36

All aboard...I can't imagine them sending him back to a track where he flopped unless this was the plan along! Im hoping your onto a huge winner here backed him on BF during the week and going to go in again now.

Peintre Celebre · 06-02-2015 4:36pm

Great minds and all that, he's the only one I was thinking of backing. Not sure you could have the utmost of faith in him though.

ste2010 · 06-02-2015 5:25pm

I can't believe in saying this. I'm very confident about Wicklow brave and amore alato tomorrow...can't believe the prices they are

Backstreet Moyes · 06-02-2015 5:31pm

Ruby going over for Wicklow Brave and leaving the ride of Vroom Vroom Mag.

longshotvalue · 06-02-2015 6:43pm

Nuts102 wrote: »

Ruby going over for Wicklow Brave and leaving the ride of Vroom Vroom Mag.

And into 20/1 and looks like getting shorter... Thanks feck i actually backed it, i don't always..

100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

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