November 2019 by-elections

BonnieSituation · 30-11-2019 1:57am

green123 wrote: »

Why no exit polls?

No real need. Turnout was so low throughout the constituencies and the money to pay for an exit poll would have not been worth it. Results will be known pretty quickly on Saturday after they start counting.

man98 · 30-11-2019 2:11am

ankles wrote: »

final turnout?

Dublin Midwest at 24% (record low turnout)
Dublin Fingal at 25% (breaks the previous record)
Cork North Central around the 30% mark I believe.
Wexford in the upper 30s/ lower 40s.

With turnout this low, it really is anyone's game I all of the constituencies.
I don't have a huge amount of info on DMW so I won't comment on that, with reports of higher turnout in working class areas it could very well push the seat away from FG and to the left.

With Fingal, by all accounts turnout is highest in the Green candidate's areas. That said, Labour and FF will still benefit here and they have their own bases apart from Howth Malahide, so this will be one to watch. FG appear to have flopped here, which will be worrying for their analysts.

In CNC, despite media assertions that this is a dead cert FF seat, turnout has been very poor in Glanmire (Where O'Sullivan is from) and in Blarney (another strong FF base of votes). He should still take this quite comfortably, but it does raise the question of where SF and LAB will finish, who should do better on am urban vote. Expect to see a respectable increase in Labour and Green votes, SF to see a drop, independents and Solidarity way down, FG slightly down and FF about the same as the general, perhaps a bit higher.

In Wexford the picture is more complicated. Turnout was strong in Gorey town and environs (where Byrne might expect to find his vote share) - at around 41/42%. Wexford town saw a 45% turnout, markedly higher in traditional Labour strongholds. Pockets of rural areas across the south of the county had good turnout, which will benefit Murphy (FG) and Codd (Aontú). Turnout in New Ross was around 30%, well below average, which will damage SF and FG. Turnout in Enniscorthy area was also quite poor, which will damage FF, but mainly SF. My prediction here is a close call between FF and Labour, with FG coming not too far behind. SF, Greens and Aontú to battle it out far behind that.

Enjoy the festivities tomorrow!

Nika Bolokov · 30-11-2019 9:39am

in Dublin Mid West that there was a bearded candidate called Keddy on the paper with a Wexford address ? Was that just my imagination or was that correct.

This guy was also listed on the Wexford ballot.

Is it just me or was there a massive screw up ?

Nika Bolokov · 30-11-2019 10:13am

Seems he was also on the ballot in Fingal and maybe Cork.

Can you run in multiple constituencies ?

L1011 · 30-11-2019 11:37am

Keddy ran in all 4 constituencies. That is legal

Tallies suggest SF FPV in Dublin West is huge and they could possibly take the seat. Don't think anyone predicted that at all - only people thinking Gould in Cork NC had some chance. This comes down to transfer friendliness however. Gould still has some chance in Cork NC at that.

There seems to be some geographical element to why the Greens are so far ahead in the partial tally in Fingal but there's a good chance he's home and dry really as he should be very transfer friendly.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 11:49am

Abysmally low turnout reflecting the current state here...an electorate fed up with petty squabbles between two parties who really should merge and get it over with and manifestations of the arrogance of power over and over again. The Hospital, Maria Bailey, The Printer etc etc.?

AndrewJRenko · 30-11-2019 11:50am

Don't read too much into early tallies. If you don't have a good geographic spread, they may not reflect the overall result.

L1011 · 30-11-2019 11:54am

Labour should be happy with the Cork NC tally as it stands, 10.6% and well clear of the Greens - and most importantly vastly clear of Solidarity. Will have Mick Barry in their sights at the General.

And the very good figures for SF in DW and CNC have to be seen as being constituencies where they have some of their star performer TDs as is. The figures for Fingal would put Louise O'Reilly in grave danger at a GE if replicated for her - different candidate of course, but its heavily a party vote you'd assume with SF.

L1011 · 30-11-2019 11:56am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Don't read too much into early tallies. If you don't have a good geographic spread, they may not reflect the overall result.

This definitely has to be considered in Fingal, as the early tallies had nothing at all from Swords (Smith's vote base) for instance.

At every GE you get people saying Howlin is gone based on the first boxes which are usually Gorey. You can find the tweets from 2016 about it if you look still. He topped the poll!

christy c · 30-11-2019 12:13pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

two parties who really should merge and get it over with

This is just the usual waffle from people sympathetic with SF, similar to how those type seem most upset with how Leo was elected leader of a party they don't even support.

If FF & FG members want to merge they will

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 12:29pm

christy c wrote: »

This is just the usual waffle from people sympathetic with SF, similar to how those type seem most upset with how Leo was elected leader of a party they don't even support.

If FF & FG members want to merge they will

They need to offer something distinct to the electorate so. Politics is about offering people choice, not riding on the coattails of of an almost identical party and swapping power.

Augme · 30-11-2019 12:34pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Abysmally low turnout reflecting the current state here...an electorate fed up with petty squabbles between two parties who really should merge and get it over with and manifestations of the arrogance of power over and over again. The Hospital, Maria Bailey, The Printer etc etc.?

Also the fact that there really is no point in this election and it is being run again in around 6 months time anyway. I've voted in every election that I have been in the country but I'd be hard pushed to show up for this one even.

christy c · 30-11-2019 12:48pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They need to offer something distinct to the electorate so. Politics is about offering people choice, not riding on the coattails of of an almost identical party and swapping power.

Again that's not something for someone sympathetic with SF to decide.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 12:51pm

christy c wrote: »

Again that's not something for someone sympathetic with SF to decide.

Why are you trying to make it about SF?

Deal with the point or say nothing.

christy c · 30-11-2019 12:55pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why are you trying to make it about SF?

Deal with the point or say nothing.

I'm saying it's not for you as someone sympathetic with SF to decide, it's up to party members. Same as it would not be for me to say that SF should merge with Solidarity for example.

Sir Oxman · 30-11-2019 12:57pm

Final tallies in CNC and DMW:

CNC
FF 28.19
FG 21.14
SF 19.59
Lab 9.70
Grn 7.25

DMW:
SF 23.9
FG 18.7
Gogarty 12.7
FF 11.8
Timmons 6.9
Lab 6.7
Grn 6.4 (stupid RTE posted a sideways photo of a pie chart so hard to read)

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 1:00pm

christy c wrote: »

I'm saying it's not for you as someone sympathetic with SF to decide, it's up to party members. Same as it would not be for me to say that SF should merge with Solidarity for example.

This is a 'discussion' forum. Discuss the point, don't try and censor it.

christy c · 30-11-2019 1:04pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This is a 'discussion' forum. Discuss the point, don't try and censor it.

I have given it the discussion it deserves, if members want to, they will merge. Should they merge? No, unless they want to.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 1:09pm

christy c wrote: »

I have given it the discussion it deserves, if members want to, they will merge. Should they merge? No, unless they want to.

It is my belief, as somebody interested in political matters, that it should be called out.

Unless you believe that nobody outside a particular party is allowed to comment?

christy c · 30-11-2019 1:12pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Unless you believe that nobody outside a particular party is allowed to comment?

Of course they're allowed to comment, doesn't mean the comment should be taken seriously by others though.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 1:20pm

christy c wrote: »

Of course they're allowed to comment, doesn't mean the comment should be taken seriously by others though.

Putting aside your jumping to a conclusion that I was trying to 'decide' the matter, do you think the fact that they are so similar that it is having a negative effect on the body politic in the country? I.E. Low turnouts and voter apathy.
Which was the original point.

christy c · 30-11-2019 1:29pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Putting aside your jumping to a conclusion that I was trying to 'decide' the matter, do you think the fact that they are so similar that it is having a negative effect on the body politic in the country? I.E. Low turnouts and voter apathy.
Which was the original point.

Ok apologies, "decide" was the wrong choice of words, would have been better to say that someone who does not vote for either of two parties giving suggestions on what they should do.

Is low turnout/apathy/etc. related to FF & FG being similar? Possibly. I think it's more related to the low standard of politics we have in general here (I include all parties here).

Having said that, looking at our neighbors on both sides of the water, we do not seem too bad. However that does not mean there's not massive room for improvement.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 1:40pm

christy c wrote: »

Ok apologies, "decide" was the wrong choice of words, would have been better to say that someone who does not vote for either of two parties giving suggestions on what they should do.

Again with the assumption that I don't vote for members of these parties if I think they would be good representatives. Could you apologise for that 'choice of words' too.

Is low turnout/apathy/etc. related to FF & FG being similar? Possibly. I think it's more related to the low standard of politics we have in general here (I include all parties here).

Having said that, looking at our neighbors on both sides of the water, we do not seem too bad. However that does not mean there's not massive room for improvement.

I think it is a 'part' of the reason for voter apathy. Two parties swapping power and elements of policy and ideology as it suits them, or as a facile way to distinguish each other is not healthy. Either one should have some conviction and offer a choice.

christy c · 30-11-2019 1:44pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again with the assumption that I don't vote for members of these parties if I think they would be good representatives. Could you apologise for that 'choice of words' too.

No, it was a reasonable assumption based on your posting history. And voting for parties you don't like regardless of who the candidate is doesn't make much sense to me, particularly when the party whip is used.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 1:47pm

christy c wrote: »

No, it was a reasonable assumption based on your posting history. And voting for parties you don't like regardless of who the candidate is doesn't make much sense to me, particularly when the party whip is used.

My 'posting history' which you will find includes the statement that I am not a member of, or a supporter of one particular party?

You made an assumption in an effort to criticise an opinion.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 1:52pm

Anyone know of good twitter feed following all the counts?

Sir Oxman · 30-11-2019 1:53pm

DMW first count expected about 1pm
CNC about 1.30pm

Green tally says Green is topping the poll in Fingal
Grn 23.5
FF 17.5
Lab 16.5
FG 14.0

christy c · 30-11-2019 1:53pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My 'posting history' which you will find includes the statement that I am not a member of, or a supporter of one particular party?

You made an assumption in an effort to criticise an opinion.

Never said you were a member or supporter of any party.

I'm not sure where you stand, you vote for FF or FG but would like them to merge? If so, is there not another party to vote for which better reflects your views?

Sir Oxman · 30-11-2019 1:54pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone know of good twitter feed following all the counts?

follow this hashtag

#BE19

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 1:58pm

christy c wrote: »

Never said you were a member or supporter of any party.

I'm not sure where you stand, you vote for FF or FG but would like them to merge? If so, is there not another party to vote for which better reflects your views?

You may need to come out of your assumptive bubble and research the term 'floating voter'. They do exist and they are looking for 'choice'.

BonnieSituation · 30-11-2019 1:59pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone know of good twitter feed following all the counts?

Live blog on Irish Times is what I'm using.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 2:03pm

A box in Cork opened with 'zero' votes in it. That's shocking in so many ways.

christy c · 30-11-2019 2:03pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You may need to come out of your assumptive bubble and research the term 'floating voter'. They do exist and they are looking for 'choice'.

Fair enough, I've met floating voters but most only had a very small interest in politics.

BonnieSituation · 30-11-2019 2:08pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A box in Cork opened with 'zero' votes in it. That's shocking in so many ways.

Bishopstown. Madness.

Sir Oxman · 30-11-2019 2:13pm

Fingal 1st count due 2pm

Almost full tally (minus 4 boxes)

Grn 22.8
FF 18.40
Lab 15.40
FG 14.9
I4C 9.70

Mongfinder General · 30-11-2019 2:17pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Fingal 1st count due 2pm

Almost full tally (minus 4 boxes)

Grn 22.8
FF 18.40
Lab 15.40
FG 14.9
I4C 9.70

Media were pretty much handing the seat to the Greens a couple of hours ago. Not so sure on the figures above

Sir Oxman · 30-11-2019 2:23pm

DMW 1st count: turnout 26.58%

Gavan reilly's spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K8X2QLSBzwf72w9V-uXavJ9BuECP4MblZJv7riZXg5A/edit#gid=1709040152

Really strong turnouts in working class N Clondalkin estates for SF's Ward.

Augme · 30-11-2019 2:23pm

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Media were pretty much handing the seat to the Greens a couple of hours ago. Not so sure on the figures above

Why? The greens will be far more transfer friendly than Fianna fail and Lorraine Clifford Lee I would have thought.

Sir Oxman · 30-11-2019 2:24pm

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Media were pretty much handing the seat to the Greens a couple of hours ago. Not so sure on the figures above

I agree though Greens stronger than FF for transfers?

L1011 · 30-11-2019 2:42pm

Soc Dems did even worse than I expected in DMW. That was one of their target seats for the next GE, on that result they may as well give up there.

BonnieSituation · 30-11-2019 2:42pm

L1011 wrote: »

Soc Dems did even worse than I expected in DMW. That was one of their target seats for the next GE, on that result they may as well give up there.

And they even got my #2

For Forks Sake · 30-11-2019 2:51pm

L1011 wrote: »

Soc Dems did even worse than I expected in DMW. That was one of their target seats for the next GE, on that result they may as well give up there.

Barely outpolled O'Doherty in Fingal as well. Time to fold the tent.

Mongfinder General · 30-11-2019 3:03pm

Augme wrote: »

Why? The greens will be far more transfer friendly than Fianna fail and Lorraine Clifford Lee I would have thought.

Gemma O’Doherty on 4%. I suspect transfers from her won’t be going to the left. Not sure about SF transfers. If I was putting a bet on I would lump on the Greens at this point but it’s far from over.

L1011 · 30-11-2019 3:19pm

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Barely outpolled O'Doherty in Fingal as well. Time to fold the tent.

It was disasterous by elections that pushed Democratic Left in to Labour wasn't it? Ancient history at this stage but a very comparable situation

Itssoeasy · 30-11-2019 3:36pm

Just looking at the PBP/ solidarity vote in CNC and it's dropped by 11.3%. That's bad for mick Barry in the next election.

MIKEKC · 30-11-2019 4:18pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just looking at the PBP/ solidarity vote in CNC and it's dropped by 11.3%. That's bad for mick Barry in the next election.

Didn't Mick Barry back the Lias drivers in their dispute? They were already on over e50,000 .Thought PBP/solidarity were supporting the lower paid

An Ciarraioch · 30-11-2019 4:22pm

Surprisingly strong performance by Labour in Wexford - could Lawlor overtake Murphy after Green, PBP and SF transfers?

Sierra Oscar · 30-11-2019 4:32pm

L1011 wrote: »

It was disasterous by elections that pushed Democratic Left in to Labour wasn't it? Ancient history at this stage but a very comparable situation

Yeah I can see Shorthall and Murphy trying to rejoin Labour now that their fortunes are on the rise. The Social Democrats have had a number of outings in elections at this stage and they are only going backwards.

Although wouldn't surprise me if Labour decide to keep Shorthall well outside the tent.

man98 · 30-11-2019 4:41pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Surprisingly strong performance by Labour in Wexford - could Lawlor overtake Murphy after Green, PBP and SF transfers?

Unlikely, but very possible. I've been saying throughout the campaign that this was likely, for the record. Lawlor putting in a strong contention for a close finish, if Lawlor is eliminated the seat will go to FF without a doubt, it Murphy is eliminated it could be anyone's game.

blanch152 · 30-11-2019 5:19pm

christy c wrote: »

Never said you were a member or supporter of any party.

I'm not sure where you stand, you vote for FF or FG but would like them to merge? If so, is there not another party to vote for which better reflects your views?

You generally find that those who want FF and FG to merge are supporters of another party.

November 2019 by-elections

Comments