November 2019 by-elections

AndrewJRenko · 23-11-2019 11:53am

is_that_so wrote: »

Here's a piece on what Wexford thinks of Verona. Might they yet upset people's expectations?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-and-vocal-what-does-wexford-think-of-verona-murphy-1.4092217

It really puts her 'apology' in context when she's now making a virtue of 'being vocal'.

Clear and obvious dog-whistleing.

man98 · 25-11-2019 12:16am

is_that_so wrote: »

Here's a piece on what Wexford thinks of Verona. Might they yet upset people's expectations?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-and-vocal-what-does-wexford-think-of-verona-murphy-1.4092217

Murphy's chances have been underplayed since the beginning of this campaign. A cushy little article in her home area or in another FG TD's home parish might make her look beefed up, but there is very little in the way of a county wide ground campaign due to a lack of party support, one could surmise this is why she made these remarks in the first place to capture the spotlight. Plenty of variables here, but the Wexford by election is far from being called for Malcolm Byrne (FF), transfers and turnout absolutely key in this area - as it will be in Fingal - however, due to the fact that Wexford is not Dublin, pol corrs tend to have difficulty properly understanding the complexities of this constituency, similarly to CNC.

Sierra Oscar · 25-11-2019 9:33pm

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye but Darragh O'Brien got a quota on the first count, so she should see most of those voters go for her this time out, that's why I think she will win. Only Clare Daly's vote compared and I think Mulligan will definitely not carry over as much as he would like, Clare has a high profile in the constituency for years and years, something he does not and even as the "annointed" one I think he struggles. He could eclsipse Lab for 2nd though, as they only ran one candidate in 2016.

She has also really upped her profile locally since getting into the Seanad.

Labour candidate will do well here also I suspect.

padd b1975 · 26-11-2019 4:29pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.
Agree on Mulligan but I'm curious to see what kind of "green" vote is out there.

I heard that Mulligan lad on a Late Debate constituency special recently.

He didn't come across as a good communicator at all and the couple of hoary old sound bites he trotted out were cringe worthy.

blanch152 · 26-11-2019 6:25pm

man98 wrote: »

Murphy's chances have been underplayed since the beginning of this campaign. A cushy little article in her home area or in another FG TD's home parish might make her look beefed up, but there is very little in the way of a county wide ground campaign due to a lack of party support, one could surmise this is why she made these remarks in the first place to capture the spotlight. Plenty of variables here, but the Wexford by election is far from being called for Malcolm Byrne (FF), transfers and turnout absolutely key in this area - as it will be in Fingal - however, due to the fact that Wexford is not Dublin, pol corrs tend to have difficulty properly understanding the complexities of this constituency, similarly to CNC.

The problem for Byrne will be if Wexford town has a bigger turnout than his homebase of North Wexford.

NovemberWren · 26-11-2019 9:07pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.
Agree on Mulligan but I'm curious to see what kind of "green" vote is out there.

yep. dem greens for over the last year have been an intrepid hive of activity with all union employees.
On the radio, also, it was said that the Broadband (is that in conjunction with ESB?) now needs '300 Connector' sites; and that some of these will be located in Libraries. And so, Librarians will be more important, and their E40k, E50k, salaries will be more justified.
Back on topic; Greens are the new Pink; and have assiduously been in liaison with (prob.?) all of the government local bureaucracies; are there promises there? cos' there sure definitely is votes.
Also, the Grand Hotel in Malahide, would not allow Gemma O'Doherty and supporters to be there; and they all had to stand outside.
Very good video on youtube though. (The Grand Hotel, Malahide, formerly did host meetings of F.F. and S.F.).

L1011 · 27-11-2019 12:57am

Three days before we get the new one, another Cork N-C TD announces they're off - Dara Murphy had already said he was standing down but clearly expected the Dail to have fallen by now so needs to go next month. Probably won't be enough time to require a second by-election before it actually does.

FG will be utterly desperate to get a solid result now as presumably Burke is who they intend to get in at the GE regardless and they wouldn't like to go in without having anyone there.

Inquitus · 27-11-2019 3:29am

NovemberWren wrote: »

Very good video on youtube though. (The Grand Hotel, Malahide, formerly did host meetings of F.F. and S.F.).

They were right not to allow her to spread her xenophobic BS using their property for the purpose, I watched the video on youtube, something serious has happened that has severed her attachment to reality, from Chief Features writer at the Indo to wandering into a halal shop demanding rashers and sausages.....not to mention chemtrails and all the other conspiracy theory stuff she whackjobs on and on about.

Sierra Oscar · 27-11-2019 6:27pm

L1011 wrote: »

Three days before we get the new one, another Cork N-C TD announces they're off - Dara Murphy had already said he was standing down but clearly expected the Dail to have fallen by now so needs to go next month. Probably won't be enough time to require a second by-election before it actually does.

FG will be utterly desperate to get a solid result now as presumably Burke is who they intend to get in at the GE regardless and they wouldn't like to go in without having anyone there.

There's a whiff of FG trying to rally their supporters to back Burke. Can't be left without a FG TD in the constituency and all that.

L1011 · 27-11-2019 8:20pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There's a whiff of FG trying to rally their supporters to back Burke. Can't be left without a FG TD in the constituency and all that.

I'd be almost certain he'll get in at a GE regardless. Plenty of places have had no FG TD in the past regardless however!

Itssoeasy · 28-11-2019 11:32pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There's a whiff of FG trying to rally their supporters to back Burke. Can't be left without a FG TD in the constituency and all that.

Dara Murphy finally put an end to this whole carry on of being over in Europe when he's still a TD might help colm Burke tomorrow. I've talked to people who are well up on politics in cork north central and it's a given there is a FF seat and a FG seat in the constituency. So one way or the other colm burke should be a TD either by the weekend or at the next GE.

Is the FF candidate in with a shout ? I know it's a bye election caused by a FF TD going to Europe but I always felt that billy kelliher got more of a personal vote more than a FF vote up here.

Anyway an interesting weekend in cork north central.

L1011 · 29-11-2019 4:34pm

Heard a radio report there of tiny turnouts, but particularly interesting was - if I didn't mishear this and get it completely wrong - was even worse turnout in north Wexford compared to the national average poor level in South Wexford

That could swing Lawlor back in and increases Murphy's chances also.

More commuters around Gorey that could vote later etc etc but the traffic madness, shopping madness and Toy Show will pull down that volume nationwide

Harry Palmr · 29-11-2019 7:16pm

Truly the elections that almost no one gave a damn about. Which could be good news for any candidate whistling for dogs.

hotmail.com · 29-11-2019 7:37pm

People will get elected to the Dail on perhaps the lowest turnout figures ever for Dail elections.

Inquitus · 29-11-2019 7:55pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

People will get elected to the Dail on perhaps the lowest turnout figures ever for Dail elections.

Aye, I went and did my civic duty in Fingal around 6pm, not many people out and about voting tbh, is likely to be the lowest turnout ever as reported. Only thing is these people are only likely to be in for a few months at most.

BonnieSituation · 29-11-2019 8:39pm

Just about to head back to Lucan now to do my duty.

I've never not voted and I'm aghast at those who don't ever use their franchise, but even I was contemplating not bothering. Says it all.

SafeSurfer · 29-11-2019 11:23pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Dara Murphy finally put an end to this whole carry on of being over in Europe when he's still a TD might help colm Burke tomorrow. I've talked to people who are well up on politics in cork north central and it's a given there is a FF seat and a FG seat in the constituency. So one way or the other colm burke should be a TD either by the weekend or at the next GE.

Is the FF candidate in with a shout ? I know it's a bye election caused by a FF TD going to Europe but I always felt that billy kelliher got more of a personal vote more than a FF vote up here.

Anyway an interesting weekend in cork north central.

Incredible that Murphy was an absentee TD for so long. Doing another job in another country while still claiming his maximum expenses throughout. Absolutely sickening.

hotmail.com · 30-11-2019 12:04am

It shouldn't take long to count.

ankles · 30-11-2019 12:33am

final turnout?

green123 · 30-11-2019 1:54am

Why no exit polls?

BonnieSituation · 30-11-2019 1:57am

green123 wrote: »

Why no exit polls?

No real need. Turnout was so low throughout the constituencies and the money to pay for an exit poll would have not been worth it. Results will be known pretty quickly on Saturday after they start counting.

man98 · 30-11-2019 2:11am

ankles wrote: »

final turnout?

Dublin Midwest at 24% (record low turnout)
Dublin Fingal at 25% (breaks the previous record)
Cork North Central around the 30% mark I believe.
Wexford in the upper 30s/ lower 40s.

With turnout this low, it really is anyone's game I all of the constituencies.
I don't have a huge amount of info on DMW so I won't comment on that, with reports of higher turnout in working class areas it could very well push the seat away from FG and to the left.

With Fingal, by all accounts turnout is highest in the Green candidate's areas. That said, Labour and FF will still benefit here and they have their own bases apart from Howth Malahide, so this will be one to watch. FG appear to have flopped here, which will be worrying for their analysts.

In CNC, despite media assertions that this is a dead cert FF seat, turnout has been very poor in Glanmire (Where O'Sullivan is from) and in Blarney (another strong FF base of votes). He should still take this quite comfortably, but it does raise the question of where SF and LAB will finish, who should do better on am urban vote. Expect to see a respectable increase in Labour and Green votes, SF to see a drop, independents and Solidarity way down, FG slightly down and FF about the same as the general, perhaps a bit higher.

In Wexford the picture is more complicated. Turnout was strong in Gorey town and environs (where Byrne might expect to find his vote share) - at around 41/42%. Wexford town saw a 45% turnout, markedly higher in traditional Labour strongholds. Pockets of rural areas across the south of the county had good turnout, which will benefit Murphy (FG) and Codd (Aontú). Turnout in New Ross was around 30%, well below average, which will damage SF and FG. Turnout in Enniscorthy area was also quite poor, which will damage FF, but mainly SF. My prediction here is a close call between FF and Labour, with FG coming not too far behind. SF, Greens and Aontú to battle it out far behind that.

Enjoy the festivities tomorrow!

Nika Bolokov · 30-11-2019 9:39am

in Dublin Mid West that there was a bearded candidate called Keddy on the paper with a Wexford address ? Was that just my imagination or was that correct.

This guy was also listed on the Wexford ballot.

Is it just me or was there a massive screw up ?

Nika Bolokov · 30-11-2019 10:13am

Seems he was also on the ballot in Fingal and maybe Cork.

Can you run in multiple constituencies ?

L1011 · 30-11-2019 11:37am

Keddy ran in all 4 constituencies. That is legal

Tallies suggest SF FPV in Dublin West is huge and they could possibly take the seat. Don't think anyone predicted that at all - only people thinking Gould in Cork NC had some chance. This comes down to transfer friendliness however. Gould still has some chance in Cork NC at that.

There seems to be some geographical element to why the Greens are so far ahead in the partial tally in Fingal but there's a good chance he's home and dry really as he should be very transfer friendly.

FrancieBrady · 30-11-2019 11:49am

Abysmally low turnout reflecting the current state here...an electorate fed up with petty squabbles between two parties who really should merge and get it over with and manifestations of the arrogance of power over and over again. The Hospital, Maria Bailey, The Printer etc etc.?

AndrewJRenko · 30-11-2019 11:50am

Don't read too much into early tallies. If you don't have a good geographic spread, they may not reflect the overall result.

L1011 · 30-11-2019 11:54am

Labour should be happy with the Cork NC tally as it stands, 10.6% and well clear of the Greens - and most importantly vastly clear of Solidarity. Will have Mick Barry in their sights at the General.

And the very good figures for SF in DW and CNC have to be seen as being constituencies where they have some of their star performer TDs as is. The figures for Fingal would put Louise O'Reilly in grave danger at a GE if replicated for her - different candidate of course, but its heavily a party vote you'd assume with SF.

L1011 · 30-11-2019 11:56am

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Don't read too much into early tallies. If you don't have a good geographic spread, they may not reflect the overall result.

This definitely has to be considered in Fingal, as the early tallies had nothing at all from Swords (Smith's vote base) for instance.

At every GE you get people saying Howlin is gone based on the first boxes which are usually Gorey. You can find the tweets from 2016 about it if you look still. He topped the poll!

christy c · 30-11-2019 12:13pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

two parties who really should merge and get it over with

This is just the usual waffle from people sympathetic with SF, similar to how those type seem most upset with how Leo was elected leader of a party they don't even support.

If FF & FG members want to merge they will

November 2019 by-elections

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