Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

1…91011121315»

Comments

  • #702
    vistafinder
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 619 ✭✭✭vistafinder


    Just saw a video clip on the news of a fella swiming up Oliver Plunkett street this morning in Cork.


  • #703
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Gerry Murphy was just on Six One there so it must be serious flooding coming our way!


  • #704
    sunbabe08
    Registered Users Posts: 6,327 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    leahyl wrote: »
    Gerry Murphy was just on Six One there so it must be serious flooding coming our way!

    eeek we're screwed.


  • #705
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,594 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just a heads up, at some point this evening either this thread will get a new title, or it will be locked and readers redirected to a new Tuesday to Saturday discussion room. Maq, I just sent a message requesting the change but it may be a while before we see the new thread (title).

    I feel that level 2 is still appropriate although the incoming storm has a bit of a localized level 3 potential for south coast, much depends on whether the lunar tidal reduction overcomes the atmospheric upgrade relative to Monday morning. It might be more or less a cancelling out of these two factors with similar results, but I could visualize it going either side of that. Obviously a higher storm surge would be a major problem.

    Saturday, we can cross that bridge if it's still standing. That one has northerly track shift potential so it's more or less an academic point to say that the south is presently once again more at risk of strong winds and fortunately by then the lunar tides should be at their monthly minimum so this might reduce the storm surge potential this time more on the west coast again.


  • #706
    Macy0161
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,486 ✭✭✭Macy0161


    leahyl wrote: »
    Gerry Murphy was just on Six One there so it must be serious flooding coming our way!
    Its not serious until they bring out The Eagle.


  • #707
    Fred Swanson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,730 ✭✭✭✭Fred Swanson


    This post has been deleted.


  • #708
    Red Nissan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    maquiladora wrote: »
    According the news, a 1 meter tidal swell is forecast for high tide in Cork tomorrow evening.

    So we see a half meter drop due to natural lowering tides to an expected 3.8m from 4m this morning and add back tidal swell so we see a 4.5m tide, given the longevity of this storm, this may well release maximum potential.


  • #709
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Fred Swanson wrote: »
    The Eagle does not do TV anymore.

    He was busy with TV3 today


  • #710
    Fred Swanson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,730 ✭✭✭✭Fred Swanson


    This post has been deleted.


  • #711
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    There is still no official Met warning for tomorrow, this surprises me as the charts seem all to agree on the liklyhood of gusts in excess of 100km/hr which is the threshold and in a region not really used to high winds from this direction.


  • Advertisement
  • #712
    Mr Cumulonimbus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Mr Cumulonimbus


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Saturday, we can cross that bridge if it's still standing.

    GEFS perturbation 4 for Saturday morning, would make a good attempt at demolishing what's left. Of course there's 5 days to go, but quite a few of the other scenarios look unpleasant too at this stage.

    gens-4-1-114_est0.png


  • #713
    kub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,555 ✭✭✭kub


    Ok I have been reading posts here for a while and infairness you guys know your stuff.

    I was listening to a presenter on a Cork radio station this morning who said that he felt that as the Cork harbour Commissioners dregger had not been clearing out the river/ harbour for a while, that he felt they may be partially to blame for the floods.

    I thought may be not, what say ye?


  • #714
    simply simple
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 311 ✭✭simply simple


    Is Dublin going to escape this whole event tomorrow and the whole week?


  • #715
    Red Nissan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    kub wrote: »
    Ok I have been reading posts here for a while and infairness you guys know your stuff.

    I was listening to a presenter on a Cork radio station this morning who said that he felt that as the Cork harbour Commissioners dredger had not been clearing out the river/ harbour for a while, that he felt they may be partially to blame for the floods.

    I thought may be not, what say ye?

    Absolute load of rubbish. Full Stop. Ask on the marine forum and they will show you pictures of state of the art dredgers that look like space ships that hoover up silt and leave in a few minutes and they have been regular visitors to Cork waters.

    I meant to email myself but then, who was it? [I know, he should stick to Sunday mornings and give Mawe and Tallon a day off].


  • #716
    goat2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    how are kerry, clare and galway fare in tomorrow nights event,


  • #717
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest EURO4 shows winds fairly similar to early this morning for the south and and easts tomorrow evening/night, perhaps a bit stronger at times on the south coast and on the east coast the direction is more towards shore than this morning so could feel a bit stronger there.

    The main story though will be the risk of further coastal flooding on the south coast tomorrow evening and possibily on the east coast early Wednesday morning. So be aware of high tides and any warnings from your local council.

    14020415_0312.gif
    14020418_0312.gif
    14020421_0312.gif


  • #718
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,594 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    goat2 wrote: »
    how are kerry, clare and galway fare in tomorrow nights event,

    Based on model consensus, would suggest that you may see a burst of stronger winds late afternoon, then experience the near calm of the eye of this particular storm (one model, GEM, keeps the track a bit further west and that would keep you in the stronger winds), followed by a moderate or briefly strong blast from the west on Wednesday as the storm in a weaker condition moves away from Ireland.

    The more continuous strong winds would be felt around Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow, inland southeast. Dublin might also have a brief period of strong winds and some later intervals of near calm if the eye tracks over Dublin on its way northeast.

    We will have a better handle on track issues by tomorrow morning. This storm is currently shown as a rapidly deepening 975 mb low near 47N 33W (extrapolation to 20z from 18z position and reported central pressure 979 mb).

    This is a much broader system than the Monday morning event and will create a longer interval of strong winds. We can only hope that things stay within reasonable limits on both this one and the Saturday event.


  • #719
    Martin_D
    Registered Users Posts: 181 ✭✭Martin_D


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    I've never seen it flood there before. The wind has been non stop here since yesterday evening. The rain looks like clearing in the next hour or so. Round two tomorrow night.

    Ya must be a young lad - regularly flooded up to about 15 yrs ago - not sure what sorted it but there has been so much development, piping of streams etc it must have been a benefit until this event. The final part of the flood relief works might do the trick but saying that how did the Quay flood today given the major barriers erected in recent years - this was its first big test.


  • #720
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Red Nissan wrote: »
    Absolute load of rubbish. Full Stop. Ask on the marine forum and they will show you pictures of state of the art dredgers that look like space ships that hoover up silt and leave in a few minutes and they have been regular visitors to Cork waters.

    I meant to email myself but then, who was it? [I know, he should stick to Sunday mornings and give Mawe and Tallon a day off].

    Maybe your right but I pass the quay in cork more than once a day and I haven't seen them dredging for a long time.
    As for space ship look alike boats on cork harbour - they must be out at night!


  • Advertisement
  • #721
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Met Eireann have launched yet another Orange Weather Warning this evening.
    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Another Atlantic storm depression will approach Ireland later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Southeast to east winds of mean speeds 65 to 80km/h., will gust 90 to 115 km/h., at times, along southern and eastern coasts. Large waves, high tides and low pressure values are likely to lead to some coastal flooding. Heavy rain or showers are also expected and with the water table so high, some river flooding is likely too.
    Issued:
    Monday 03 February 2014 21:00
    Valid:
    Tuesday 04 February 2014 15:00 to Wednesday 05 February 2014 09:00


  • #722
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Tomorrow's low will probably see wind speeds 10-15 km/hr higher than today so gusts of 120/125 kmh might be possible in coastal areas of the south and east.


  • #723
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    It's deja vu all over again.

    k0L81NO.png


  • #724
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Martin_D wrote: »
    Ya must be a young lad - regularly flooded up to about 15 yrs ago - not sure what sorted it but there has been so much development, piping of streams etc it must have been a benefit until this event. The final part of the flood relief works might do the trick but saying that how did the Quay flood today given the major barriers erected in recent years - this was its first big test.

    Wish i was a young lad ;) The memory is not as good as it used be.


  • #725
    pharmaton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭pharmaton


    slightly ot but I know there's plenty of pics of local flooding to be had, just thought it was interesting to witness the new flood defence barriers in action in Waterford on my way to school earlier. It's the second time in a month I've seen the water this high along waterside. I remember when it was a regular disaster zone at spring tides in the past, but it gives a good idea of the volume of water passing through



    AxGxAL1l.jpg

    41FSHfql.jpg


  • #726
    Red Nissan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Maybe your right but I pass the quay in cork more than once a day and I haven't seen them dredging for a long time.

    Going OT for here for a minute, describe dredging please, what you expect to actually see. Thanks.


  • Advertisement
  • #727
    Aimsir
    Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Aimsir


    Met Éireann has issued the following Severe Weather Alert for the Cork area.

    Weather Warning : Code Level Orange

    Another Atlantic storm depression will approach Ireland later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Southeast to east winds of mean speeds 65 to 80km/h., will gust 95 to 115 km/h., at times, along southern and eastern coasts. Large waves, high tides and low pressure values are likely to lead to some coastal flooding. Heavy rain or showers are also expected and with the water table so high, some river flooding is likely too.

    Valid from 15:01 Tuesday 4-February-2014 until 09:00 Wednesday 5-February-2014


  • #728
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Its also for the Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Kerry and Waterford areas!!


  • #729
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    So after tomorrow's heavy rain, and Wednesday's heavy showers....another large band of heavy rain on Friday night.

    gfs-2-99-3h.png?18

    River flooding is going to be a growing problem for some areas in the coming days.


  • #730
    Baby75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,070 ✭✭✭Baby75


    how will Carlow fair out in tomorrow event


  • #731
    Steopo
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    Red Nissan wrote: »
    Going OT for here for a minute, describe dredging please, what you expect to actually see. Thanks.

    I know it's not what you're asking but useful article from BBC on stopping flooding
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25929644

    Maybe one for the postmortems, back to the current situation ...

    Might be clutching at straws but it does seem Cork is right in the eye of the storm at highest tide on Wed morning so winds may not be as bad at that time??. So the good news for Cork at high tide is half metre lower tide v today, maybe in eye of storm but the bad news is sea swell (which wasn't there this morning), heavy rain preceding & the already serious swollen state of the rivers

    7x5FRk.png


  • Advertisement
  • #732
    vickers209
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Estofex level 1 just on south coast


    showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2014020506_201402032136_1_stormforecast.xml

    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Tue 04 Feb 2014 06:00 to Wed 05 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Mon 03 Feb 2014 21:36
    Forecaster: TUSCHY

    A level 1 was issued for S-Ireland, SW UK and the offshore areas mainly for severe wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION

    ... Ireland and UK ...

    06Z until noon:

    A pronounced mid-level thermal trough with readings well below -30°C at 500 hPa crosses UK from SW to NE. Rather steep mid-layer lapse rates atop modest BL moisture offer some SBCAPE of 500 J/kg offshore and up to 300 J/kg onshore. Latest IR image (20Z) has an area with active convection west of Ireland and UK including spotty lightning activity. This will affect mainly the coastal areas of W/SW UK, before waning onshore. Sleet and gusty winds will be the main hazard, although an isolated funnel event can't be ruled out with some LLCAPE forecast. Beyond noon, WAA of the intense marine cyclone should induce a shutdown of any ongoing convection.

    00Z-06Z including NW France:

    The occluded cyclone comes closer to Ireland and UK. With cooling mid-levels, offshore convection should increase in coverage and intensity over the Bay of Biscay, the W-English Channel and just south of Ireland. Sleet and severe wind gusts will be the main hazard with 850 hPa winds aoa 25 m/s. Intense gradient flow along the back-bent occlusion features 850 hPa winds of 40 m/s, but very slim DMC probabilities exist. Severe to damaging winds start to affect SW UK during the end of the forecast, but current indications show little to no input of convection to the final wind magnitude. A broad level 1 area was issued for the wind gust risk with marine and onshore moving thunderstorm activity. However right now, no organized severe risk (e.g. forced line of DMC) is anticipated with this event.


  • #733
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Steopo wrote: »
    Might be clutching at straws but it does seem Cork is right in the eye of the storm at highest tide on Wed morning so winds may not be as bad at that time??. So the good news for Cork at high tide is half metre lower tide v today, maybe in eye of storm but the bad news is sea swell (which wasn't there this morning), heavy rain preceding & the already serious swollen state of the rivers

    7x5FRk.png

    According to the report on the news Cork City Council are expected an unusually large 1m tidal swell at high tide tomorrrow evening, that will be the one that carries the greatest risk of flooding rather than on Wednesday morning.


  • #734
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,594 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Baby75 wrote: »
    how will Carlow fair out in tomorrow event

    Very windy in any places exposed to the south, southeast or east ... widespread spot flooding likely from heavy rainfalls.


  • #735
    Baby75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,070 ✭✭✭Baby75


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Very windy in any places exposed to the south, southeast or east ... widespread spot flooding likely from heavy rainfalls.
    say

    Thank you


  • #736
    Steopo
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    maquiladora wrote: »
    According to the report on the news Cork City Council are expected an unusually large 1m tidal swell at high tide tomorrrow evening, that will be the one that carries the greatest risk of flooding rather than on Wednesday morning.

    You're right given the other factors of strong winds & heavy rain at high tide tomorrow night looks the bigger risk although does look like to me the biggest swell mightn't arrive till just after high tide (assuming magic seaweed site is accurate, I'm dubious as it does seem to over forecast wave heights)

    http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/

    BTW - does anyone know why with these spring tides every second tide is much lower in Dublin but this isn't the case in Cork?


  • #737
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A 2300 update from Met

    Cold overnight with clear spells and scattered rain or hail showers. Frost will develop in many places and ice will form on untreated surfaces, especially later in the night. Some fog patches are likely in the midlands also. Lowest temperatures -1 to +3 C.
    hr.gif

    Tomorrow

    Frost, fog and ice will clear early in the morning, then it will be mainly dry for a time, with sunny spells in places. But extremely windy and very wet weather will sweep up from the south during the afternoon and evening, giving flooding in places. Gale force and very blustery southeast to east winds will develop over Munster and Leinster and will extend to all areas early Tuesday night. Cool, top temperatures 6 to 9 C.

    Outlook

    Wednesday: The heavy overnight rain will clear from the east coast soon after dawn, but then heavy showers will break out across the country during the morning and afternoon. The showers will tend to merge to longer spells of rain by the middle of the day with the risk of very heavy rain in thundery downpours. Severe flooding may occur. Then towards evening the showers will become more isolated but it will get windy and blustery, the wind direction being westerly.

    Thursday: Thursday will be a much brighter day with showers frequent over the western half of the country, but the showers staying well scattered on the eastern side. Highest temperatures will be around 6 or 7 degrees. Thursday night will be clear, but it will be cold and frosty as air temperatures fall to freezing.

    Friday: It will be a bright and frosty start to the day. The morning will be generally sunny and dry, but in the afternoon cloud will increase and rain will reach the southwest by the end of the afternoon. During the evening and night the heavy rain extends to all parts of the country.

    Saturday: A very showery day, with the showers again merging to longer spells of rain and occasional heavy thundery downpours. Flooding is again likely to occur.

    Sunday: The showers on Sunday will be mostly confined to the western half of the country and the eastern side of Ireland will be much drier and brighter.


  • #738
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,594 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This is a very strong appearing low that makes a northeast turn just before reaching Ireland and reaches its lowest pressure just before expected landfall (which would be near the Shannon estuary). For those reasons, I am going to start a new thread now with level 2 status but a level 3 disclaimer in the title.

    I hope a mod can lock this thread soon and direct traffic over to the new thread.


  • #739
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    This is a very strong appearing low that makes a northeast turn just before reaching Ireland and reaches its lowest pressure just before expected landfall (which would be near the Shannon estuary). For those reasons, I am going to start a new thread now with level 2 status but a level 3 disclaimer in the title.

    I hope a mod can lock this thread soon and direct traffic over to the new thread.

    I suggested this thread be locked earlier today but I didn't start a new one since this stayed open, so I'll let you start this one. :pac:


  • #740
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,594 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Please utilize the new thread:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=88822589#post88822589


  • #741
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,594 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    maquiladora wrote: »
    I suggested this thread be locked earlier today but I didn't start a new one since this stayed open, so I'll let you start this one. :pac:

    Yep, unfortunately our hard-working mods have lives off-forum too, and have not caught up with our requests for a thread change, but I will be proactive given the risks ahead and get a more timely wording into a thread title for now, mods can decide whether to merge or lock. This thread is likely to pick up some further traffic but would ask that folks go over to the new location to discuss Tuesday evening potential.

    The low is racing east now, I've noticed that it has exceeded the pace of most recent Atlantic lows and is gaining over one degree longitude an hour eastward as well as losing over one millibar per hour in central pressure. This one has a lot of angular momentum to unleash on the south coast and could do even more than we expect. Should at least have numerous ship reports on approach although the K1 buoy is kaput like so many others seem to be -- I hope the UK or France or Ireland think of sending out a naval vessel to give us some reports around 06z and 12z from 50N 18W or thereabouts. I think that has happened in the past.


  • Advertisement
This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement