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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

12467…35

Comments

  • #152
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    oisingeogho wrote: »
    It's been a long run of fairly mild weather, particularly for England and Wales with cold and snow this winter limited to Scotland in the main with just the occasional colder incursion further south. Is all that about to change though?

    In the Winter forecast the outlook was for milder December with a change of pattern arriving during January bringing colder weather, and there are some indications that the changes are now beginning to occur.

    Without getting too technical, it's all about the stratosphere and it's temperature - in summary a colder stratosphere means a stronger jetstream and more atlantic based weather for the UK, as we've seen in recent times. There are signs that the stratosphere is warming though, and that would increase the risk of some colder air making it's way toward the UK.

    As ever with the weather though, this is far from a straight forward process so there are most definitely no guarantees of significant cold arriving any time soon, but it does seem likely that less mild weather will be arriving in 7-10 days time & beyond that we'll really need to keep a close eye on developments.

    The forecasting models are giving some hints on the type of weather that could arrive in the latter part of their runs, but they're also chopping and changing with every update which gives some good clues as to just how uncertain the detail in the medium range outlook is.

    We'll obviously be keeping you up to date throughout...

    At shorter range, to start the upcoming week we'll be seeing a north, south split in place with some wet and windy weather affecting Scotland in particular during Monday. The wet weather fades the further south you head though with high pressure close by and it's likely that it's influence will spread north later in the week.

    Temperature wise it'll be a fairly mild start to the week with no frosts likely until the second part of the week - watch too for some fog patches in places.


    Basically u could have just said its a 50/50 chance of old weather :)and most of all the above has been already covered!


  • #153
    K_1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    nilhg wrote: »
    You'll notice that the article refers to Winter and Spring barley and Spring Oats, all (well not all but a lot) the Winter oats died of frostbite, the areas which had least snow were worst affected.

    http://www.teagasc.ie/news/2011/201103-03.pdf

    Around here there were Elder bushes killed in the hedges and even big clumps of Briars were burnt right back to the roots.


    The problem here was that spring oat varieties were planted in autumn, as this was generally done and worked fine for years. Spring oat varieties are not very frost resistant. If winter oat varieties had been used, they most likely would have survived.

    Irish Steve wrote: »
    Ideally, we want snow rather than severe frost, my rhubarb is already showing signs of shooting, and frost will not do that any good at all. We also planted some new crowns from Lidl, if they get frosted, they will probably be killed as they are so tender at the moment.

    If you could put straw on it (or dung and straw would be ideal) it should help protect it and also it will grow better later in the spring.


  • #154
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Sponge Bob wrote: »

    I very much look forward to seeing a post predicting an approximate week or fortnight away weather setup based on the antics of your local flora and fauna. :)

    Indeed, let results be the judge, not the appearance of the player. I suspect the current crop of folk at the top of MT's forecast competition will now be left looking a bit....iffy :cool:


  • #155
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Just seen the RTE weather - they have easterly winds across the country by Friday! :)


  • #156
    nilhg
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭nilhg


    K_1 wrote: »
    The problem here was that spring oat varieties were planted in autumn, as this was generally done and worked fine for years. Spring oat varieties are not very frost resistant. If winter oat varieties had been used, they most likely would have survived.




    Agreed, but that same variety Barra has been about since 1988 IIRC and last year was the first year it had any really significant problems during the winter. One year we had it at home here it was affected by a late severe frost in April and some of the developing heads were killed in the shoot, it did retiller and compensate.

    Back on topic, it would seem to me that we are back around 2007, some promising signs in the models but always just out of the reliable timeframe, tantalising snow and cold lovers but never seeming to deliver.

    I can't say I have a scientific explanation for my above theory but that's the feeling I'm getting.


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  • #157
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    The farming community are really getting stuck in here! :)

    I've tried to link the RTE forecast and searched the RTE site for "weather" and came up with nowt.

    Anyone know

    (1) do RTE post their TV forecasts
    (2) if so, how do you find them :confused:


  • #158
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    web_irl_wind_2012011300.gif

    Bah! Their website only runs the wind till Thursday night...it look like this. Anticyclonic surely - and then easterly?????


  • #159
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    The farming community are really getting stuck in here! :)

    I've tried to link the RTE forecast and searched the RTE site for "weather" and came up with nowt.

    Anyone know

    (1) do RTE post their TV forecasts
    (2) if so, how do you find them :confused:

    Go to RTE Player and search for the latest News once its uploaded. Weather will be at the end just like on TV.


  • #160
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    Just seen the RTE weather - they have easterly winds across the country by Friday! :)

    seriously???!!:eek:


  • #161
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    RTE 9pm was probably using this mornings ECM data for its charts.

    Which showed a light easterly feed. The 12z does not show this however.


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  • #162
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    http://www.rte.ie/player/#l=7

    Got it....the easterlies come on Sunday, not Friday :(

    They moved it

    http://www.rte.ie/player/#!v=1130030


  • #163
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    http://www.rte.ie/player/#l=7

    Got it....the easterlies come on Sunday, not Friday :(

    Unfortunately bill that's not the type of easterly we are looking for.


  • #164
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    baraca wrote: »
    Unfortunately bill that's not the type of easterly we are looking for.

    Is it because europes not cold enough yet?


  • #165
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    baraca wrote: »
    Unfortunately bill that's not the type of easterly we are looking for.

    Wha! :eek:

    Wrong type of snow? :)


  • #166
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Very poor 18Z GFS.

    Hopefully more interesting 0Z's in the morning. :)


  • #167
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Haven't really followed the models for the past few days but very little to look at on tonight's offering, more depressing mist and rain all week, the models seem to be all over the place after that so no point reading much into anything after next Friday


  • #168
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Harps wrote: »
    Haven't really followed the models for the past few days but very little to look at on tonight's offering, more depressing mist and rain all week, the models seem to be all over the place after that so no point reading much into anything after next Friday

    Well - there goes another faint bit of hope - puff!

    And for a good 10 minutes there I was really excited :rolleyes:


  • #169
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Harps wrote: »
    Haven't really followed the models for the past few days but very little to look at on tonight's offering, more depressing mist and rain all week, the models seem to be all over the place after that so no point reading much into anything after next Friday

    This coming week never really had anything decent to offer it the middle to end of month that something could start to show up something special


  • #170
    Icanseethewind
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15 ✭Icanseethewind


    Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.


  • #171
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I've put a request in for the RTE Player to feature the Farming Forecast separately so we can all find it.


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  • #172
    200motels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.
    Interesting observations and I have to agree with you I've never known it to be so mild for this time of year. Roll on the summer.


  • #173
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    200motels wrote: »
    Interesting observations and I have to agree with you I've never known it to be so mild for this time of year. Roll on the summer.

    Roll off to a summer tread so :rolleyes:


  • #174
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    200motels wrote: »
    Interesting observations and I have to agree with you I've never known it to be so mild for this time of year. Roll on the summer.
    what makes you think the summer will be mild/warm /nice/even summery
    lets get through the rest of winter first,then why not try a bit of spring


  • #175
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.
    Good post. I couldn't agree with you more. The writing was on the wall weeks ago.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76156953


  • #176
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    Good post. I couldn't agree with you more. The writing was on the wall weeks ago.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76156953

    You keep posting this , I shall look forward to quoting this after the first epic snowfall :pac::pac::pac:


  • #177
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Why not post it? I'm 100% accurate.


  • #178
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    Why not post it? I'm 100% accurate.

    Down of your high horse I was only jesting :D

    Plus were only on the 9th day of Jan with the second half of the month to be cooler , although its been so mild of late that would not be too hard


  • #179
    weathermaiden
    Registered Users Posts: 60 ✭✭weathermaiden


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

    Is this a prediction you feel applies to all of Ireland, or are you mainly reading the signs in Mayo? I ask because we southeasties often complain about missing out on all the fun weather that the northwest has been getting of late (storms, wintry showers, etc), so could the same be true if an easterly is delivered? That Mayo will see nothing but the east might? :)

    (Can't... quite.... reach the straws.....) :cool:


  • #180
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

    Those poor birds. They will be red faced when digging their nests out from under the snow.:D

    I have not cut the grass since mid October and it still doesn't need a cut and I am in Naas. There is a tree near me that has crows nest each year no signs of tenets yet.

    I don't take this studying nature too seriously as I have seen it fail so many times in the past.

    My bird feeder needs to be refilled twice a week, normally it is once every two weeks but they are going through it like I observed late October or early November 2010. It that a sign of a cold winter?

    What happens in Mayo doesn't represent the whole Island. In 2010 one side of Naas got a hail shower and the otherside had sunshine. Even our small nation has a varied weather pattern.


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  • #181
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign.
    Would your experience tell you that the crows are predicting a lack of serious cold or a lack of atlantic storms to dislodge the nests.??

    The grey back crow is a carrion crow, if they are the ones nesting could they not be predicting a bumper feast of dead lambs and the like....say in a Feb/March blizzard season?? :p I am not sure of their nesting habits but one of the local greybacks is often seen pulling surplus fur off an asses back when the ass moults in mid-late spring. I would think April.

    On the other hand the black crow or rook normally lays its eggs around early March and would be expected to be nest building by mid february latest. Mid January would indeed seem early. :)


  • #182
    Icanseethewind
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15 ✭Icanseethewind


    I think my rather green outlook will apply to all of the country. Talking to another neighbout of mine and he told me that the Winter is over! He reckons its going to stay mild and wet.... he 87 and has lived here all his life. Now another sign I know that people often dismiss are the frogs... there is spawn in a ditch near here already. Ok people argue that the wildlife is tricked into thinking it is Spring because it is so mild... but more often than not we get these very mild winters in Ireland yet the frogs dont necessarily spawn so early. But this year its as if wildlife has somehow sensed that the danger of a cold spell is gone. I know science tells us that wildlife cannot predict conditions weeks in advance but I disagree. Just becasue we cannot explain it doesnt mean its not true.


  • #183
    Icanseethewind
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15 ✭Icanseethewind


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Would your experience tell you that the crows are predicting a lack of serious cold or a lack of atlantic storms to dislodge the nests.??

    The grey back crow is a carrion crow, if they are the ones nesting could they not be predicting a bumper feast of dead lambs and the like....say in a Feb/March blizzard season?? :p I am not sure of their nesting habits but one of the local greybacks is often seen pulling surplus fur off an asses back when the ass moults in mid-late spring. I would think April.

    On the other hand the black crow or rook normally lays its eggs around early March and would be expected to be nest building by mid february latest. Mid January would indeed seem early. :)
    Thats an interesting point about the grey backs... the crows i see nest building are rooks and jackdaws.... Look it may mean nothing but I have seen this pattern before and I think no snow this year...well I dont know about the end of the year


  • #184
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Thats an interesting point about the grey backs... the crows i see nest building are rooks and jackdaws.... Look it may mean nothing but I have seen this pattern before and I think no snow this year...well I dont know about the end of the year

    There is a thread on the weather and nature signs /animals which you might also find interesting.


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75790476

    However Im hoping that your weather predictions are off :D


  • #185
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    I think my rather green outlook will apply to all of the country. Talking to another neighbout of mine and he told me that the Winter is over! He reckons its going to stay mild and wet.... he 87 and has lived here all his life. Now another sign I know that people often dismiss are the frogs... there is spawn in a ditch near here already. Ok people argue that the wildlife is tricked into thinking it is Spring because it is so mild... but more often than not we get these very mild winters in Ireland yet the frogs dont necessarily spawn so early. But this year its as if wildlife has somehow sensed that the danger of a cold spell is gone. I know science tells us that wildlife cannot predict conditions weeks in advance but I disagree. Just becasue we cannot explain it doesnt mean its not true.

    I can't say anything about frogs except the one which magically appeared in my pond with the nearest pond is across a busy road. Unless it wanted to play some real like Frogger and got across to my garden.

    ...

    ...

    Sorry a little side tracked.:D

    I was speaking to an elderly gentleman at work last week and he said we will see heavy snow and a late spring. He says the signs are there and he says he got 2010 right. Pity I didn't have time to question him further and I didn't post it here as I didn't believe a word of it.

    Sorry if my posts are coming off as aggressive that it not my intent.


  • #186
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Logically I would think that the Rooks ( black crow) nesting predicts ( if anything):

    1. Storms over for the winter.
    2. No snow/superchill from the 1st of March.

    A High Pressure and freeze between now and mid Feb would not disturb the nests and would not interfere with the egg laying and incubation which starts end Feb

    It could also mean the crow sees a crap summer, no grain in the fields and a need to get breeding over with and emigrate with the sprog in early summer to where the grain is. :D

    Now this is ALSO me supposing the crow is as clued in as all that :)


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  • #187
    jirafa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,467 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Cold Spell Looming? Not so much.

    Link ................. http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/cold-spell-looming-not-so-much/


  • #188
    jirafa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,467 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder. Chance of cold?
    Posted Sun, 08 Jan 2012 08:31:13

    The next few days will be mild as high pressure builds across the south. This pattern has been well forecast by the computer models for a number of days, and confidence on it happening is very high. The question mark is really how much cloud there will be, and unfortunately the answer is probably quite a lot. The real uncertainty begins during the second half of the coming week. By Friday a ridge of high pressure will build north over the UK at the same time as pressure is rising to our north east. This opens the door for low pressure to sink south over the continent with bitterly cold Siberian air flooding west. This is the type of pattern which often brings very cold conditions to western Russia and central Europe. Occasionally the push of cold air makes it as far as the UK, but many times it doesn’t get further west than central Germany, leaving a real divide in Europe’s weather. So what will happen during the next 10 days or so? It’s too early to tell. I’ve pasted the 192 hours ahead charts from the overnight ECM and GFS global computer models. The ECM chart is more encouraging if you’re hoping for a cold spell, showing a large block of very cold air pushing into eastern Britain. The blues (-10C 850hPA, the temperature at about 1500m ASL) and purples on the charts show the really cold air. The second chart below is for the same time, but from the GFS model. It shows things backed further east, with milder weather affecting the UK. It then goes on to show the Atlantic eroding the block to our east causing the cold air to sink south towards the Balkan Peninsula with unsettled weather in the UK. Things should become much clearer as we go through the next few days, but at the moment it’s still odds against a cold easterly becoming established over Britain.

    ecm.png?w=530&h=397

    gfs.png?w=530&h=397

    Sitting on the fence?

    I had a few emails yesterday asking me why I am ‘sitting on the fence’ this winter. The answer is I’m not! I’ve never thought this winter would be a particularly cold one, and that was reflected in my initial winter thoughts released in mid-October and the winter forecast issued in late November. What do I think now? It’s self now evident that this winter is very likely to fall into the milder than average category, so if anything the winter forecast has under estimated temperatures. However, I still think it’s very unlikely that we’ll completely escape cold weather before the end of February, and that means the chance of some snow.

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx


  • #189
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    0Z GFS not inspiring much confidence. GEFS slightly better. Waiting for ECM.


  • #190
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Its gas you say that because I've been pouring over the 00z gfs the last hour and see it as being still positive looking. We will go blind at this rate.:D


  • #191
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Simon Keeling
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTRPccGlQWE


    Update from Glacier Point over on NW

    Extremely impressive set of ensemble means popping up t168+ across models this morning, all agreeing in the persistence and development of a very negative AO - probably the best of the winter for long term sustained cold, possibly hinting at a four wave pattern in the very long range.

    The NAO remains stubbonly positive, but NAEFS suite is now very keen on shifting this in the extended range as the PV entirely displaces towards Alaska yanking the ridge in the Atlantic westward with it. Not so great for North American cold, good for European cold and ensemble means around 2-3 degrees below average for the last week of the month look not unrealistic.

    I suspect that the ECM ensemble mean placement of the Azores ridge through days 6-10 is too far north and east.

    Whilst the deep cold is moving into eastern Europe and Scandinavia it's tempting to look east for the time being, however I suspect the main initial attack for us is going to be from the NW or N, opening the door from the east.


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  • #192
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Good pressure rise to the North on the 06z GFS. More like what we want to see. Hopefully some indication of the other models going the same way later.

    Rtavn1621.png


  • #193
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Once again I'm very happy with how things are progressing on the 06 z run. Not looking any further than 168 hrs.look at the northern hemisphere view and you see what I mean


  • #194
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Latest GEFS run puts us in a cooler setup from this weekend with potential for much colder weather increasing into next week and the following week. Jet stream gets pushed south of us later next week.

    Aligning itself a little more with ECM. Looking forward to next run of the latter.


  • #195
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    redsunset wrote: »
    Not looking any further than 168 hrs.look at the northern hemisphere view and you see what I mean

    Cold also is encroaching on west on Ireland and UK then suddenly starts getting pushed back east post 168+.


  • #196
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Cold also is encroaching on west on Ireland and UK then suddenly starts getting pushed back east post 168+.

    FIX THAT FOR YA! ;)


  • #197
    yorlum11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 342 ✭✭yorlum11


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Cold also is encroaching on west on Ireland and UK then suddenly starts getting pushed back east post 168+.

    It is finally building up for a cold blast 20th onwards,fingers crossed!!


  • #198
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    It's certainly some rollercoaster with the model watching at the moment.


  • #199
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    GEFS ensembles trending much cooler today for the second half of the month. The various ensembles are becoming more aligned. Prospects for colder weather now looking much greater than last week. One question remains....will we be faced with a colder zonal setup or will the source of cold air be the continent or north from the Arctic? I would say it could go either way at this stage although a drop to average or slightly below average temps for January are are now more or less guaranteed from mid month, 16-18th onwards toward Feb.

    ENSEMBLES
    6034073

    187768.gif

    AO dips into negative territory by mid month
    gfs_ao_bias.png
    187770.gif

    NAO trending lower and hovering close to neutral signalling an end of the very windy and unsettled sw-W flow of the past 6 weeks or more.
    187771.gif


  • #200
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Looks good all round. Snow is still uncertain at this point though.


  • #201
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Ok folks, here goes. I am putting my neck on then block so to speak with my predictions based on my observations and knowledge. I almost certain there will be no snow this month, in fact I think we are going to have a complete green Winter and Spring. I have been saying this to the family and neighbours since October. I have lived here in Mayo all my life since 1943 and experience has shown me that if we get no significant frosty weather between October and January then the warmth has won out. I have seen no ground frost at all this winter. Also I noticed the crows are already starting to build the nests again, another sign. Some may scoff at me and thats alright lads but I sticking to my predictions. It has really been an exceptionally mild winter, the grass has not stopped growing at all. People talk about the big cold of 1947 and 1963 arriving late but the set ups were there around Christmas and there were frosty /cold spells prior to it.

    Just wondering, what were the signs last October that made you confident of the following "Winter"?

    I'm always curious about nature, the plants and animals and if they really can give us a view into the future weather.
    Granted that us humans think we have far superior intelligence than the "lower species" but we are still discovering how the natural world can look after itself without our help.


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