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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • #802
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Light fog in Dublin 5.


  • #803
    lapua20grain
    Registered Users Posts: 822 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    PP at present have odds of 5/1 for a White Christmas at Dublin Airport.


    Just checked the site they are giving odds of 4/1 for a White Christmas at Dublin Airport and 7/1 for Cork


  • #804
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    Hmmm we are now approaching mid December and there’s still no end in sight to stormy conditions and rain on the weather models.

    Notwithstanding that there’s an optimism amongst many weather watchers that borders on something akin to certainty that this winter is going to be extra special and cold.

    My take is that the weather will do what it wants as usual, and not to get caught up in the hype. The tail end of the ECM output is now the solstice and it is still showing Atlantic depressions. For a cold spell in late December/early January you would expect the models to be hinting more and more of such a thing, but the cold facts are that they are not.

    So far we have had little significant frost, but a lot of cool and wet weather. I personally doubt there’s a memorable cold spell coming anywhere in the first half of winter at this point.

    The models are changing every run for our little part of the world. Looking at MT’s forecast the only certainty is uncertainty. It will eventually get colder but as to the depth and duration is as always a lottery.

    It could just as easily be wintry at Christmas so don’t lose faith yet!


  • #805
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Seriously windy and gusty most of last night. Still very blustery this morning.
    North Cork Limerick Border


  • #806
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    The models are changing every run for our little part of the world. Looking at MT’s forecast the only certainty is uncertainty. It will eventually get colder but as to the depth and duration is as always a lottery.

    It could just as easily be wintry at Christmas so don’t lose faith yet!

    I have a feeling it will be a mild, wet and windy Christmas but of course you may be right. Let`s wait and see.


  • #807
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The December updates of the ECM and Glosea5 continue to show a cold to even very cold second half to Winter 2018-19 with a lot of blocking though the blocking is more over Scandinavia on the ECM compared to Greenland on the Glosea5.

    tEdCMNB.png

    AaN4ac7.png

    The ECM one reminds me a lot of how Winter 1946-47 looks reanalysed.

    gke7Bs6.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #808
    Ms2011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Ms2011


    Hard to believe this time last year my kids were sleighing down the hill in our back garden in a foot of snow. Fast forward to this year & some of my plants are still in bloom it's been so mild!!!


  • #809
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Ms2011 wrote: »
    Hard to believe this time last year my kids were sleighing down the hill in our back garden in a foot of snow. Fast forward to this year & some of my plants are still in bloom it's been so mild!!!

    Last week I was eating raw broad beans and peas, self sown and some are still flowering... marigolds etc


  • #810
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    The models are changing every run for our little part of the world. Looking at MT’s forecast the only certainty is uncertainty. It will eventually get colder but as to the depth and duration is as always a lottery.

    It could just as easily be wintry at Christmas so don’t lose faith yet!

    I don't see us getting much snow between now and Christmas day, even tho the charts are changing alot, the one theme that is consistent is that it's remaining very unsettled. We may get more wintry style cold Atlantic bands of precipitation and showers as December goes on but I think any proper easterly based cold and potential snowy conditions will be into January and February.

    I'm very happy with that once it doesn't start during March when it's almost too late.


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  • #811
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A Wet and very dark afternoon in Castlebar. would love a cold clear end to the day sometime soon.


  • #812
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Aidan McGivern was live at 13.00 in The Weather Studio.

    SSW...…….;)


  • #813
    Ilyushin76
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 669 ✭✭✭Ilyushin76


    Hopefully a clear night Thursday and Friday for the geminids but not looking too good on met eireann


  • #814
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    could be fun and games over in the UK on Friday and possibly Saturday with the potential for snow as milder Atlantic air move in over a cold UK. Snow most likely in northern half of mainland UK with rain/sleet further south. Northern Ireland, like us will probably just see rain.


  • #815
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Gonzo wrote: »
    could be fun and games over in the UK on Friday and possibly Saturday with the potential for snow as milder Atlantic air move in over a cold UK. Snow most likely in northern half of mainland UK with rain/sleet further south. Northern Ireland, like us will probably just see rain.

    Can we get Gonzo a ban after that post... :)
    The only thing worse that no snow, is watching the UK get it..


  • #816
    kod87
    Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    < Mod Snip >

    erm, what?


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  • #817
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    < Mod Snip>

    Wrong thread, buddy


  • #818
    Ilyushin76
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 669 ✭✭✭Ilyushin76


    highdef wrote: »
    Wrong thread, buddy

    Think this is the forum they are looking for


  • #819
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    They have posted that post in loads of threads there band all ready


  • #820
    roosterman71
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,711 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    ZX7R wrote: »
    They have posted that post in loads of threads there band all ready

    What sorta stuff do they play? :D


  • #821
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    ZX7R wrote: »
    They have posted that post in loads of threads there band all ready

    Off-topic, but that "sentence" is painful to decipher!


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  • #822
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    We're dodging a bullet in the shape of that 943-hPa low out to our west tomorrow.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2018121106_024.png


  • #823
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yes an impressive looking storm.

    P03qhDM.jpg


  • #824
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cooling down a lot here in Kerry under clear skies, now at 4.2C and calm

    temp_uk_dyz5.png


  • #825
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Yes an impressive looking storm.

    P03qhDM.jpg

    An earlier GCOMW1/AMSR2 overpass measured mean winds of near 80 knots in the southwestern semicircle of the system. Ferocious, given that it's still deepening.


  • #826
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    highdef wrote: »
    Off-topic, but that "sentence" is painful to decipher!

    Take some paracetamol,it will help the pain


  • #827
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Light rain now in Dublin 16. Seems to be a bit of a convergence zone along the east coast.


  • #828
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Very heavy rain in South County Dublin by the coast, just miserable. No wind either.


  • #829
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    Very heavy rain in South County Dublin by the coast, just miserable. No wind either.

    amb18z.png


  • #830
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Model outlook is bleak again this morning. The pattern of northwest sources low pressure seems perpetual going forward. This is very like a lot of recent winters. Not mild, but not snowy. Very stormy polar maritime. I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues well past Christmas. Gonna give myself a wee break from viewing the output, sickened at the thought of cycling to work and doing school runs and Christmas shopping in perpetual unsettled and windy conditions


  • #831
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Agreed, no more model watching until a few days before Christmas for me.

    It seems the more I check the models, the less interesting they get from a coldies point of view. Model fatigue has set in.


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  • #832
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Southeasterly winds will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h at times, with gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds will be strongest along coastal areas.

    Issued: Wednesday 12 December 2018 09:00

    Updated: Wednesday 12 December 2018 09:00

    Valid from Wednesday 12 December 2018 16:00 to Thursday 13 December 1400

    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Heavy rain will lead to accumulations between 25mm and 50mm. Spot flooding possible. There is the potential for higher values in mountainous areas.

    Issued: Wednesday 12 December 2018 08:00

    Updated: Wednesday 12 December 2018 08:00

    Valid from Wednesday 12 December 2018 18:00 to Thursday 13 December 2018 18:00


  • #833
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Dense fog this morning in Cork City, starting to clear up a bit now though. Rainfall warning for even more rain though :/ Not looking forward to that. Yesterday afternoon had some very heavy showers.


  • #834
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Ridiculous amount of changes in model output as soon as day 3 or day 4 that it's really no use discussing them. Gotta love Scandi Highs! The only thing that is consistent on them is the stratosphere which has been constantly monitored in the stratosphere watch thread.

    This point still stands.

    In my Winter forecast, I never expected much from December and forecasted a mild, wet month though not exceptionally so. I also commented on here that I do not expect much if any snow this side of Christmas.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #835
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    esposito wrote: »
    Agreed, no more model watching until a few days before Christmas for me.

    It seems the more I check the models, the less interesting they get from a coldies point of view. Model fatigue has set in.

    My head is absolutely melted.:o


  • #836
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    In the 'old' days (....pre 2010....), models were not looked at until after Christmas!


  • #837
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Since near the start of Nov the weather has been largely mild dull and unsettled. In other words a load of boll##. My last air frost was Nov 2nd. Had more ground frosts in sept/Oct then Nov /Dec so far. I'm hopefull though of better things eventually


  • #838
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    wild and wet and windy out here...


  • #839
    Call me Al
    Registered Users Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    South Meath. After a dark grey day yesterday (so so dark and dreary even without a drop of rain) today is brighter and lighter even without much sunshine Just cold. I like it!


  • #840
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The RMS Queen Mary 2 just dodged that overnight storm, but still reported 52-knot winds, 7-metre waves and 8-metre swell at 06Z as it sailed at 47.4N 36.5W, around 400 NM southwest of the centre (just inside the 1000-hPa isobar, ahead of that isolated occluded front). I'd say the sherry and brandy glasses were making quite the racket...

    ukmo_nat_fax_2018121206_000.png


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  • #841
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Rain started in cork city now. Time to get the fire lighting


  • #842
    Sycamore Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    I don't know much but I feel we will get some very cold weather in around 3 weeks time. I just have a feeling in my bones.


  • #843
    Timistry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 754 ✭✭✭Timistry


    A wet and windy night in Tipp. 

    Just back from a week of sunny weather so this is a shock to the system!


  • #844
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Nice and windy in Dublin 5. We had a few showers earlier and a few glimpses of sunshine.


  • #845
    kerrycork13
    Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭kerrycork13


    I would safely say it’s the worst night in a long time here in east Kerry/cork north border. Don’t have a weather station but I would say sustained wind speeds of 70 Kms plus and gusting well over 100 kms. Heavy rain too lights flicking on and off!! Not long back from training and one of the lads took a shot for a score 20 metres out and it ended up going over the sideline 45 metres out behind him. It was horrendous bordering on dangerous in the finish!!


  • #846
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Unexpectedly windy here in East Cork.


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  • #847
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    kerrycork13 wrote: »
    I would safely say it’s the worst night in a long time here in east Kerry/cork north border. Don’t have a weather station but I would say sustained wind speeds of 70 Kms plus and gusting well over 100 kms. Heavy rain too lights flicking on and off!! Not long back from training and one of the lads took a shot for a score 20 metres out and it ended up going over the sideline 45 metres out behind him. It was horrendous bordering on dangerous in the finish!!

    Definitely on the cork side of the border given our football fortunes recently!


  • #848
    kerrycork13
    Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭kerrycork13


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Definitely on the cork side of the border given our football fortunes recently!

    Haha actually the Kerry side but I’d say the ball nearly ended up in cork alright!! Jesus it’s woeful out there now still. Def trees down in the morning at this rate esp with the wind coming from the south east


  • #849
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1072965785767829504


  • #850
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Winds and gusts really picking up here in Cork city. Could hear KT coming through the stove earlier and now its picked up again.


  • #851
    refusetolose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭refusetolose


    Can't sleep over the wind noise !


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