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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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    #2252
    splinter65
    Registered Users Posts: 9,420 ✭✭✭splinter65


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Christ the UK folks are really getting hit. :(

    Nearly 70 million population and 5500 have died so far. I wouldn’t describe that as too bad really.


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    #2253
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    splinter65 wrote: »
    Nearly 70 million population and 5500 have died so far. I wouldn’t describe that as too bad really.

    I doubt those 5500 families care too much what the population of the country is right now.


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    #2254
    osarusan
    Registered Users Posts: 16,560 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    threeball wrote: »
    Hopefully his day comes soon. Now that is a hateful bastard.


    Hopefully his behaviour during Covid-19 is enough to make some of those who chanced a vote for him last time to realise what an absolute bastard he is.


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    #2255
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    splinter65 wrote: »
    Nearly 70 million population and 5500 have died so far. I wouldn’t describe that as too bad really.

    I suppose it may depend on what your expectations or fears have been. But leaving aside the fact that the true figures are very likely much worse than we're seeing, the deaths per million will be slipping into 3 figures over the next couple of days. I'd find it very hard to draw comfort from that tbh. New cases down today, that may be a very small ray of hope, but hard to be certain.


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    #2256
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Daily briefing from the UK confirms they do not include deaths outside of hospitals in their numbers


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    #2257
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,587 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Raab is terrible at the media conference, speaking like a true politician, not answering any questions at all really, constantly repeating the same lines without really saying much. No real leadership at all.

    Of course we've always seem an element of that in the past, but I remember a week ago the government were under a lot of pressure because people felt the communications became rather shabby, and it feels like things are heading back to that again after improving for a little bit.

    Very poor choice for a leader to step in to Boris' shoes, constantly saying if a decision needs to be made in Boris absence that Boris has given them guidelines then the cabinet have responsibility and when asked what happens if the disagree or cannot make a decision, pretty much the same. There needs to be leadership at a time of national crisis and if he is acting leader he needs to be providing it.

    I hope Boris recovers as soon as possible but it does feel like his absence may result in the complete paralysis of government and you have to worry about the functionality of it. Johnson is intensive care and during a pandemic that cannot be allowed to become a major distraction for discharging government duties and it seems to be.

    They also still seem to be floating about the idea that Johnson will be recovered soon and back on the front line. The idea that someone who has been in intensive care with coronavirus will get discharged then immediately be able to be back on the front line is highly unrealistic.

    I don't like Gove, but he's vastly better at this.


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    #2258
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,587 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Stheno wrote: »
    Daily briefing from the UK confirms they do not include deaths outside of hospitals in their numbers

    That's been known for weeks to be fair.


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    #2259
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    devnull wrote: »
    That's been known for weeks to be fair.

    Ah just heard it there


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    #2260
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    The big news i learned today is they dont appear to be including all deaths IN hospitals either.


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    #2261
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    The big news i learned today is they dont appear to be including all deaths IN hospitals either.

    How do they calculate them?


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    #2262
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Stheno wrote: »
    How do they calculate them?

    I'm not intimately aware of the proedures tbh. But as reported today, the Office of National statistics upgraded the covid-19 related fatalities up to March 27 and the total in hospital had nearly doubled from what the department had reported.


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    #2263
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,587 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Some honesty from Chris Whitty here
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1247560957502664705


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    #2264
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    devnull wrote: »
    Some honesty from Chris Whitty here
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1247560957502664705

    Yeah fair play to him for that intervention. It will be a lesson to them for when the next pandemic or comparable crisis comes around. Work with the germans every chance you get!


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    #2265
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,114 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    splinter65 wrote: »
    I see . You want to cower in your house until some one tells you it’s safe to come out and if some people with long term illnesses gotta suffer and die in the meantime then so be it. If you get covid there’d better be a bed and a ventilator for Trump even if he doesn’t need it. 500,000 people can live indefinitely on the dole as long as your 97 year old granny with endless health issues doesn’t ( shock horror) DIE!!!!!
    Got it.
    .
    David Attenborough wrote:
    And here we see a perfect specimen of the lesser spotted full-time-mad-bastard, coming out to enlighten us all


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    #2266
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Christ the UK folks are really getting hit. :(

    It's going to be particularly brutal this week as the UK hits the peak.

    It'll be important to see if the measures that we're following have an impact in the coming days.


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    #2267
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 7,963 ✭✭✭threeball


    [/B]
    splinter65 wrote: »
    Nearly 70 million population and 5500 have died so far. I wouldn’t describe that as too bad really.

    I don't think you were saying that it wasn't too bad when 700 a day were dying in Italy. Similar population, similar numbers. I can't remember a single person who thought, hmm thats not too bad.


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    #2268
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Interesting that there is conversation in Europe about lockdown exit strategies. The EU are saying that member states should keep with these arrangements for a few more weeks, but Austria, the Czech Republic and Denmark are publishing loosening the measures.

    Apparently Austria will open non-essential shops from April 14th and will open shopping centres from May 1st. Schools will be closed until mid May. Denmark are going to open day care and elementary schools from the 15th of April.

    These moves are interesting at this stage. The Guardian also published an article about a study that says that school closures have little impact on the spread of coronavirus.

    It's still too early from my standpoint to loosen restrictions.


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    #2269
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 7,963 ✭✭✭threeball


    theological wrote: »
    Interesting that there is conversation in Europe about lockdown exit strategies. The EU are saying that member states should keep with these arrangements for a few more weeks, but Austria, the Czech Republic and Denmark are publishing loosening the measures.

    Apparently Austria will open non-essential shops from April 14th and will open shopping centres from May 1st. Schools will be closed until mid May. Denmark are going to open day care and elementary schools from the 15th of April.

    These moves are interesting at this stage. The Guardian also published an article about a study that says that school closures have little impact on the spread of coronavirus.

    It's still too early from my standpoint to loosen restrictions.

    I doubt people would send their kids back to school here even if they did open. The wise thing is to sit back and watch how these countries are affected when they exit.


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    #2270
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    These are stark predictions for the UK. From the report:

    Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4.

    By comparison, the model predicts 19,029 deaths in Spain by August 4th.


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    #2271
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    These are stark predictions for the UK. From the report:

    Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4.

    By comparison, the model predicts 19,029 deaths in Spain by August 4th.

    That model does not have ventilator data for the UK and also presumes there are 799 icu beds, which is clearly incorrect.

    I would consider that to be two major flaws in their modeling.


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    #2272
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 7,963 ✭✭✭threeball


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    These are stark predictions for the UK. From the report:

    Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4.

    By comparison, the model predicts 19,029 deaths in Spain by August 4th.

    I find those numbers very hard to believe. Maybe if they introduced no restrictive measures. I still expect about 15000 deaths but 66000 seems extreme. Thats roughly where the US will end up I'd imagine.


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    #2273
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    threeball wrote: »
    I find those numbers very hard to believe. Maybe if they introduced no restrictive measures. I still expect about 15000 deaths but 66000 seems extreme. Thats roughly where the US will end up I'd imagine.

    They reckon 81,000 deaths for the US. It does seem very high for the UK but the institute is highly respected in the field of health data analysis. The late containment measures were cited as a factor for the UK as are the lack of hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators.


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    #2274
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Aegir wrote: »
    That model does not have ventilator data for the UK and also presumes there are 799 icu beds, which is clearly incorrect.

    I would consider that to be two major flaws in their modeling.

    Indeed. Imperial College also disputes their findings. But you would wonder why they project such a massive death rate for the UK when they project about 20,000 for Italy and Spain and about 15,000 for France.


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    #2275
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    They reckon 81,000 deaths for the US. It does seem very high for the UK but the institute is highly respected in the field of health data analysis. The late containment measures were cited as a factor for the UK as are the lack of hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators.

    The data for which they have wrong, hence my belief that their model is flawed.


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    #2276
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Aegir wrote: »
    The data for which they have wrong, hence my belief that their model is flawed.

    How flawed is the question though. Hopefully, very flawed. But it's not like they don't know how to analyse data or have a hidden agenda against the UK.


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    #2277
    thebaz
    Registered Users Posts: 13,585 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    theological wrote: »
    Interesting that there is conversation in Europe about lockdown exit strategies. The EU are saying that member states should keep with these arrangements for a few more weeks, but Austria, the Czech Republic and Denmark are publishing loosening the measures.

    Apparently Austria will open non-essential shops from April 14th and will open shopping centres from May 1st. Schools will be closed until mid May. Denmark are going to open day care and elementary schools from the 15th of April.

    These moves are interesting at this stage. The Guardian also published an article about a study that says that school closures have little impact on the spread of coronavirus.

    It's still too early from my standpoint to loosen restrictions.

    Michael Osterholm , the guy who knows the most about this virus I have heard or read , suggested closing schools has little impact, in that many health care workers rely on schools as a means of Child care , and thus can work when schools are open - also he suggests opening essential services to keep society and life functioning , and lessen the impact of other illness , particularly mental health , if the lockdown continues into months I believe many young healthy adults will be severly impacted - Cocoon the elderly and immuno suppressed , practice social distancing be careful , avoid or ban crowded groupings such as concerts - cause we are going to have to live with this virus for at least 12 months - but we must also live and protect others in society too.


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    #2278
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    How flawed is the question though. Hopefully, very flawed. But it's not like they don't know how to analyse data or have a hidden agenda against the UK.

    They have no data for ventilators, so their model probably presumes zero.

    I can’t believe that the UK will have four times more fatalities than France. My money would be on the two countries being fairly equally affected.


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    #2279
    splinter65
    Registered Users Posts: 9,420 ✭✭✭splinter65


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    .

    You’ve no argument to counter what I’ve said so we will all just take it that I’ve pretty much summed up your position Trump.
    Own it at least.


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    #2280
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Aegir wrote: »
    They have no data for ventilators, so their model probably presumes zero.

    I can’t believe that the UK will have four times more fatalities than France. My money would be on the two countries being fairly equally affected.

    They predict that at the peak, in ten days' time, the UK will need 21,000 ventilators. The government itself predicted they might need 30,000. Presently, the UK has about 8,000.


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    #2281
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    theological wrote: »
    Interesting that there is conversation in Europe about lockdown exit strategies. The EU are saying that member states should keep with these arrangements for a few more weeks, but Austria, the Czech Republic and Denmark are publishing loosening the measures.

    Apparently Austria will open non-essential shops from April 14th and will open shopping centres from May 1st. Schools will be closed until mid May. Denmark are going to open day care and elementary schools from the 15th of April.

    These moves are interesting at this stage. The Guardian also published an article about a study that says that school closures have little impact on the spread of coronavirus.

    It's still too early from my standpoint to loosen restrictions.

    Those countries are in different stages of pandemic than Ireland or UK. They went stricter at the beginning and a lot of them have manageable numbers sick and numbers not increasing much anymore. It will be very gentle easing anyway.

    It seems central European and some nordic countries dealt with Corona better than the rest of Europe. For now at least.


This discussion has been closed.
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