The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

CIARAN_BOYLE · 07-04-2020 12:06pm

Water John wrote: »

Every patient with a conventional, life threatening illness is looked after as before. Any hint that there not is nonsense. Hospital system is simply divided in two.
For example about the same number of patients are on ventilators for other reasons as are for Covid 19, in this country.
Who will decide? Political leaders decide having consulted both the medical experts and economic experts when restrictions are relaxed.

Where people with life threatening conditions are cancelled on it's not because the hospital needs capacity. People with immediate life threatening conditions are progressing with their treatment as scheduled.

A lot of treatments are traumatic on the system and increase the risk of infection.

This isn't always communicated well to the patients.

threeball · 07-04-2020 12:22pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

"On Sunday Bolsonaro ignored his own health minister’s call for physical distancing and hit the streets of Brazil’s capital, declaring: “We’ll all die one day.”

Hopefully his day comes soon. Now that is a hateful bastard.

Christy42 · 07-04-2020 12:36pm

threeball wrote: »

Hopefully his day comes soon. Now that is a hateful bastard.

I mean I would say never wish this illness on anyone but that may be the lesser evil here.

What a hateful man to openly care so little about his own people.

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2020 12:41pm

threeball wrote: »

Hopefully his day comes soon. Now that is a hateful bastard.

Whats going on in brazil nobody seems to know. Not much of a lockdown, hardly any testing, yet they are at the lower end when it comes to reported cases and deaths. One report i read quoted an actual government source as saying the official figures hid "a mountain of covid-19 related deaths." Scary stuff going on there.

devnull · 07-04-2020 12:43pm

Scotland reporting 74 new deaths*

* although that number will be artificially high as will include Saturday and Sunday deaths, whereas Sunday and Monday's figures are artificially low as included almost no weekend deaths.

Bass Reeves · 07-04-2020 12:45pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Whats going on in brazil nobody seems to know. Not much of a lockdown, hardly any testing, yet they are at the lower end when it comes to reported cases and deaths. One report i read quoted an actual government source as saying the official figures hid "a mountain of covid-19 related deaths." Scary stuff going on there.

With a lot of countries you will have to look at totally deaths and compare that to the last 5year average to get an idea of the real casualty rate

meeeeh · 07-04-2020 12:50pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Whats going on in brazil nobody seems to know. Not much of a lockdown, hardly any testing, yet they are at the lower end when it comes to reported cases and deaths. One report i read quoted an actual government source as saying the official figures hid "a mountain of covid-19 related deaths." Scary stuff going on there.

India has barley any deaths. There is no denying countries in Europe were hit hard but there should be no illusion poorer countries will suffer a lot more. IT simply isn't realistic to believe that any type of containment measures can be effectively enforced in slums in South Africa, India, Brazil or any other similar country. Just because the deaths are not reported it doesn't mean they don't happen.

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2020 12:51pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

With a lot of countries you will have to look at totally deaths and compare that to the last 5year average to get an idea of the real casualty rate

Well i dont know how to do that with brazil tbh, assuming you can trust any of their figures anyway. I think i can just safely conclude that their official figure of 2 deaths per million is a grotesque fiction.

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2020 12:56pm

meeeeh wrote: »

India has barley any deaths. There is no denying countries in Europe were hit hard but there should be no illusion poorer countries will suffer a lot more. IT simply isn't realistic to believe that any type of containment measures can be effectively enforced in slums in South Africa, India, Brazil or any other similar country. Just because the deaths are not reported it doesn't mean they don't happen.

Apparently the favelas of rio are in fairly effective lockdown right now because the drug lords are enforcing it. Which isnt exactly the way it should be. Nobody is saying the deaths arent happening, au contraire, but if the likes of bolsonaro had his way and let it run riot through the country, what sort of result do you imagine there would be?

josip · 07-04-2020 1:01pm

devnull wrote: »

Scotland reporting 74 new deaths*

* although that number will be artificially high as will include Saturday and Sunday deaths, whereas Sunday and Monday's figures are artificially low as included almost no weekend deaths.

Do the Scots not work over the weekends?
Are there other countries that report similarly?

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2020 1:06pm

josip wrote: »

Do the Scots not work over the weekends?
Are there other countries that report similarly?

The figures for Sweden were posted a page or two back and show exactly the same trend so it's not unique to uk anyway.

devnull · 07-04-2020 1:13pm

josip wrote: »

Do the Scots not work over the weekends?
Are there other countries that report similarly?

They work, they just don't have the admin staffing to report at weekends.

It's the same with a good number of hospitals in England, Wales and Northern Ireland too, which is why every reporting period that includes a weekend has seen quite significant falls in deaths

I posted the tables of deaths yesterday, updated below to include NI, weekends in bold.

Date | Deaths
19/03/2020|

41

|
20/03/2020 |

33

|
21/03/2020 |

56

|
22/03/2020 |

48

|
23/03/2020 |

54

|
24/03/2020 |

87

|
25/03/2020 |

41

|
26/03/2020 |

115

|
27/03/2020 |

181

|
28/03/2020 |

260

|
29/03/2020 |

209

|
30/03/2020 |

180

|
31/03/2020 |

381

|
01/04/2020 |

563

|
02/04/2020 |

569

|
03/04/2020 |

684

|
04/04/2020 |

708

|
05/04/2020 |

621

|
06/04/2020 |

439

|

threeball · 07-04-2020 1:24pm

Christy42 wrote: »

I mean I would say never wish this illness on anyone but that may be the lesser evil here.

What a hateful man to openly care so little about his own people.

Well its either him or thousands of innocents and an important world resource, so he can die roaring for all i care.

threeball · 07-04-2020 1:28pm

josip wrote: »

Do the Scots not work over the weekends?
Are there other countries that report similarly?

New reporting proceedures. You used to have to report the death in person. Now it can be done over the phone. The new measures were implemented over the weekend.

robinph · 07-04-2020 1:39pm

devnull wrote: »

They work, they just don't have the admin staffing to report at weekends.

It's the same with a good number of hospitals in England, Wales and Northern Ireland too, which is why every reporting period that includes a weekend has seen quite significant falls in deaths

I posted the tables of deaths yesterday, updated below to include NI, weekends in bold.

Date | Deaths
19/03/2020|
41
|
20/03/2020 |
33
|
21/03/2020 |
56
|
22/03/2020 |
48
|
23/03/2020 |
54
|
24/03/2020 |
87
|
25/03/2020 |
41
|
26/03/2020 |
115
|
27/03/2020 |
181
|
28/03/2020 |
260
|
29/03/2020 |
209
|
30/03/2020 |
180
|
31/03/2020 |
381
|
01/04/2020 |
563
|
02/04/2020 |
569
|
03/04/2020 |
684
|
04/04/2020 |
708
|
05/04/2020 |
621
|
06/04/2020 |
439
|

The official stats for ALL deaths for the week ending 27th March have just been released (it just takes this long to compile.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020

Out of a total number of deaths that week being 11,141 there were 539 "involving" Covid19. That is an increase on the previously released numbers as they now list by where the death occurred as well.

It's possibly too early to read much into, but the number of Covid19 deaths/ all deaths in care homes compared to hospitals is probably a good sign, 20/2489 in care homes compared to 501/5105 in hospitals.

If the number of care home residents succumbing can be kept at a lower ratio than in hospitals then it's a good sign that the likes of social distancing is having a useful effect.

devnull · 07-04-2020 2:09pm

UK Deaths up by 854 - based on adding together individual countries released figures

758 deaths in England
74 deaths in Scotland
19 deaths in Wales
3 deaths in Northern Ireland.

Patients in England were aged between 23 and 102 years old and 29 of the 758 patients (aged between 23 and 99 years old) had no known underlying health condition.

Probably a little bit higher than normal due to the weekend being under-reported and today being over-reported, tomorrow's data will give us a better idea of the lay of the land.

Enzokk · 07-04-2020 2:31pm

meeeeh wrote: »

India has barley any deaths. There is no denying countries in Europe were hit hard but there should be no illusion poorer countries will suffer a lot more. IT simply isn't realistic to believe that any type of containment measures can be effectively enforced in slums in South Africa, India, Brazil or any other similar country. Just because the deaths are not reported it doesn't mean they don't happen.

South Africa acted early and harshly with a lockdown. No alcohol sales, no cigarette sales as these were not seen as essential items. It seems to have worked, they reported their first case around the same time as Ireland and the total cases and deaths are lower. The testing amounts seems to be around the same number and the deaths are a lot lower. The reason for this is because, as you note, if the virus breaks out in the townships it will be a disaster, especially with the healthcare system as well.

I cannot speak for Brazil as they have a...interesting man in charge, but South Africa seems to have reacted well to the crises. If anything they may have gone too hard, but if it restricts the transmissions and deaths then it would have been worth it.

The other point to note, there are countless of at risk people in South Africa, with TB and HIV. The government had to act swiftly and harshly. They basically gave tourists only a little more than a day to get a flight out as they announced on the Wednesday evening that the borders will close for passengers in 36 hours time. That gave very little notice to airlines to organize flights out.

Like all countries I cannot tell you if the testing is sufficient or lacking and therefor hiding the true numbers.

Pete_Cavan · 07-04-2020 2:40pm

devnull wrote: »

Probably a little bit higher than normal due to the weekend being under-reported and today being over-reported, tomorrow's data will give us a better idea of the lay of the land.

Absolutely insane that only three days of the week have reliable figures, all the others being skewed in some way.

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2020 2:58pm

The published ONS figures are giving a fair idea of how much the daily figures are being underreported, by an alarming amount it has to be said. It is taking some time for them to catch up.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1247466300236017664?s=20

devnull · 07-04-2020 3:15pm

The last batch of figures from the ONS saw the under-reporting of deaths by approx 24%, but this batch seem to show that over 40% of deaths were not reported at the time. That is staggering.

I think it's time that such statistics were reported on by an independent body rather than the Department of Health and Social Care, as the later clearly has political interest in what the figures are.

Need to take the politics out of reporting.

07-04-2020 3:18pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The published ONS figures are giving a fair idea of how much the daily figures are being underreported, by an alarming amount it has to be said. It is taking some time for them to catch up.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1247466300236017664?s=20

I’ve asked the question on the main thread about the Irish numbers.

If someone here dies and civic 19 is suspected, but the person has not been tested, are they included in the numbers, or is there any weekly adjustment like France and the UK are doing?

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2020 3:23pm

devnull wrote: »

The last batch of figures from the ONS saw the under-reporting of deaths by approx 24%, but this batch seem to show that over 40% of deaths were not reported at the time. That is staggering.

I think it's time that such statistics were reported on by an independent body rather than the Department of Health and Social Care, as the later clearly has political interest in what the figures are.

Need to take the politics out of reporting.

Yeah, no idea what's going on with reporting. It's not necessarily anything untoward in any way, but its not giving a full picture.

There are two very alarming things there for me.

First, I'd assumed the ONS were basically just catching up on the non hospital fatalities but the revised figure for up to 27 March above is almost double and thats just only counting IN hospital. Thats a bit scary.

Second, it seems it takes up to 9 days to catch up so raises the prospect of what conclusions we can be accurately drawing from daily figures. Thats a big issue.

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2020 3:26pm

Aegir wrote: »

I’ve asked the question on the main thread about the Irish numbers.

If someone here dies and civic 19 is suspected, but the person has not been tested, are they included in the numbers, or is there any weekly adjustment like France and the UK are doing?

Its a fair question and I'm not sure, possibly not. In no way suggesting this is a unique uk issue, am certain its not.

splinter65 · 07-04-2020 3:29pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

I will try to use small words.

You think that potential victims of Covid 19 are being given preferential treatment and that this is bad for other people.

I am pointing out that you are a potential victim of Covid 19

Given that, I am asking how do you feel about being given this preferential treatment?

I am sorry that some of the words above have more than 5 letters.

I don’t want people who are actually sick and in need of possibly life saving treatment to be put on the back burner and allowed to die just in case some other people who are perfectly well might get sick with a disease from which nearly 90% of people recover completely.
Do you understand that?
I don’t suppose you do.
“You are a one” may be correct for DTrump but I hate to break it to you, it’s just not.

Water John · 07-04-2020 3:30pm

If Covid 19 is mentioned in any way on the death cert by the issuing doctor, doesn't have to be a hospital, then that death is included in Ireland. I think it may take a few days.

07-04-2020 3:56pm

Water John wrote: »

If Covid 19 is mentioned in any way on the death cert by the issuing doctor, doesn't have to be a hospital, then that death is included in Ireland. I think it may take a few days.

Thanks. I couldn’t find anything to confirm that either way.

Donald Trump · 07-04-2020 4:05pm

splinter65 wrote: »

I don’t want people who are actually sick and in need of possibly life saving treatment to be put on the back burner and allowed to die just in case some other people who are perfectly well might get sick with a disease from which nearly 90% of people recover completely.
Do you understand that?
I don’t suppose you do.
“You are a one” may be correct for DTrump but I hate to break it to you, it’s just not.

Crack is bad dude. Go easy on it.

splinter65 · 07-04-2020 4:20pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

Crack is bad dude. Go easy on it.

I see . You want to cower in your house until some one tells you it’s safe to come out and if some people with long term illnesses gotta suffer and die in the meantime then so be it. If you get covid there’d better be a bed and a ventilator for Trump even if he doesn’t need it. 500,000 people can live indefinitely on the dole as long as your 97 year old granny with endless health issues doesn’t ( shock horror) DIE!!!!!
Got it.

devnull · 07-04-2020 4:28pm

devnull wrote: »

UK Deaths up by 854 - based on adding together individual countries released figures

758 deaths in England
74 deaths in Scotland
19 deaths in Wales
3 deaths in Northern Ireland.

Probably a little bit higher than normal due to the weekend being under-reported and today being over-reported, tomorrow's data will give us a better idea of the lay of the land.

Department of Health and Social Care have published figures that show 68 less deaths than the figures that were reported by each country combined.

They also show that they are still not testing 10k people a day.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1247544237073166339

Wibbs · 07-04-2020 5:05pm

Christ the UK folks are really getting hit.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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