US Presidential Election 2020

ELM327 · 10-07-2020 1:29pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Given that he leads in every single Demographic category except "White - Non College Educated" , I'm not sure that that is at all true.

Kanye running might syphon off some votes , but given that Trump said in Hannity last night that "Kanye is always going to be for us" I don't think it's altogether clear who exactly he might take votes off.

Polls are meaningless.

Not many trump voters are going to be persuaded to vote for a psychotic black rapper.

Quin_Dub · 10-07-2020 1:34pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Polls are meaningless.

Not many trump voters are going to be persuaded to vote for a psychotic black rapper.

But Biden voters would????

moon2 · 10-07-2020 1:35pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Polls are meaningless.

Not many trump voters are going to be persuaded to vote for a psychotic black rapper.

Why is it the the demographic known to be easily swayed by Trump's nonsense will not be easily swayed by other similar nonsense, yet the demographic *not* supportive of Trump's nonsense will suddenly become enticed by the same nonsense from another person. A person whom you believe is a "psychotic rapper".

everlast75 · 10-07-2020 1:40pm

ELM327 wrote: »

I for one hope that kanye runs, it will cement Trump's victory.

I love the fact that Trump supporters now pin the hopes of him winning on Kanye ***ing West lol.

I guess Trump supporters do think that black lives do matter*

*in certain circumstances...

ELM327 · 10-07-2020 1:41pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But Biden voters would????

moon2 wrote: »

Why is it the the demographic known to be easily swayed by Trump's nonsense will not be easily swayed by other similar nonsense, yet the demographic *not* supportive of Trump's nonsense will suddenly become enticed by the same nonsense from another person. A person whom you believe is a "psychotic rapper".

Perhaps non voters with the woke culture now. The demographic biden is targeting

duploelabs · 10-07-2020 1:45pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Polls are meaningless.

Not many trump voters are going to be persuaded to vote for a psychotic black rapper.

Tha same rapper who walks around in a jacket with confederate flags on it and says that Slavery was voluntary, he's going to win the black vote?

10-07-2020 1:47pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Perhaps non voters with the woke culture now. The demographic biden is targeting

I'm lost on why they'd vote for Kanye... He's never been classified as "woke".

ELM327 · 10-07-2020 1:48pm

duploelabs wrote: »

Tha same rapper who walks around in a jacket with confederate flags on it and says that Slavery was voluntary, he's going to win the black vote?

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm lost on why they'd vote for Kanye... He's never been classified as "woke".

But he's black. And as we're constantly reminded by the left, race is more important than anything.

everlast75 · 10-07-2020 1:52pm

ELM327 wrote: »

But he's black. And as we're constantly reminded by the left, race is more important than anything.

JFC.

So you think that because the man is black, "the left" will vote for him? It doesn't matter if he is egocentric, or has no political experience, or is crassly overt about how rich he is, all the left see is his colour? I think, to be fair, that says more about you than anyone else.

duploelabs · 10-07-2020 1:53pm

ELM327 wrote: »

But he's black. And as we're constantly reminded by the left, race is more important than anything.

If that's the case then your understanding of 'why race is important' is severely flawed

10-07-2020 2:02pm

ELM327 wrote: »

But he's black. And as we're constantly reminded by the left, race is more important than anything.

So this is just your way on going on a rant about systemic racism? I think you overestimate how clever your point is..

Tell me how · 10-07-2020 2:02pm

ELM327 wrote: »

But he's black. And as we're constantly reminded by the left, race is more important than anything.

You really don't understand things do you?

I mean, it would take some effort to look this clueless on purpose.

sid waddell · 10-07-2020 2:06pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Polls are meaningless.

Not many trump voters are going to be persuaded to vote for a psychotic black rapper.

Interesting that you state that Kanye West being black is a reason why Trump supporters would not consider supporting him.

You said the quiet part out loud.

eagle eye · 10-07-2020 2:33pm

I knew nothing about Kanye bar his name until a few days ago. I now know he's a rapper and is married to a real life show celeb.
I couldn't really tell you anything about him and I'm sure there are many Americans who know little about him too.
Biden's only worry is getting Democrats out to vote, it's been the same many times when Democrats lose a Presidential election, it's because many Democrat supporters didn't go vote.
I think the hate for Trump will bring even the laziest out.

Rjd2 · 10-07-2020 3:14pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's sad to hear if true. Hope he gets the right help if needed.

I did think that the details of his telephone interview with Forbes a few days ago were more than a little bizarre , like he would base his administration on Wakanda?!

He also seemed unaware that he needs to get his skates on to ensure he is on the ballot in most states. Kanye's first two albums are epics, but this does feel like him having an incident, lets hope he is ok.

I expect in a few weeks he will quietly reveal he is not running.

Carfacemandog · 10-07-2020 4:58pm

eagle eye wrote: »

.
Biden's only worry is getting Democrats out to vote, it's been the same many times when Democrats lose a Presidential election, it's because many Democrat supporters didn't go vote.

This is right up there with Michael Owen's surgically incisive "whoever scores more goals usually wins".

StringerBell · 10-07-2020 6:54pm

ELM327 wrote: »

I for one hope that kanye runs, it will cement Trump's victory.
Biden's main hope is the angered black vote

That's just not true at all.

TomOnBoard · 10-07-2020 7:08pm

Carfacemandog wrote: »

This is right up there with Michael Owen's surgically incisive "whoever scores more goals usually wins".

True that! However, in footie, there's a ref and other officials who ensure that a set of rules are fully met by both teams, and offenders who commit serious breaches of those rules are sent out of the game (usually.. I still remember Maradona's Hand of God). In US elections in some places, voter suppression practices are enabled by the local referee and officials, resulting in one team having 14 or 15 players while the other one's goalie is handcuffed.

eagle eye · 10-07-2020 8:03pm

Carfacemandog wrote:

This is right up there with Michael Owen's surgically incisive "whoever scores more goals usually wins".

This is the stupid take on what I said.

There's a lot of Democrat supporters who don't go to the poll every election. If they are not excited by the candidate they don't vote. This section sways elections.
I think their hate for Trump will bring them out this time moreso than being excited about a 78 year old.

Quin_Dub · 10-07-2020 8:59pm

eagle eye wrote: »

This is the stupid take on what I said.

There's a lot of Democrat supporters who don't go to the poll every election. If they are not excited by the candidate they don't vote. This section sways elections.
I think their hate for Trump will bring them out this time moreso than being excited about a 78 year old.

Indeed - Almost the direct inverse of what managed to scrape Trump over the line four years ago.

Then , GOP voters were far more motivated by hatred of Clinton than they were for love of Trump..

Funny how the world turns..

uncleoswald · 11-07-2020 12:13am

ELM327 wrote: »

Polls are meaningless.

Or some people, particularly some journalist, don't understand polling and make rash projections on them.

The margin of error in US presidential elections polling is usually about 2%, which is really accurate as far as these things go. Even last time out when the "polls" apparently got it dead wrong they were still only off by about 2%. Biden is currently about 9% ahead. He can't get complacent but that is a very very strong lead.

StringerBell · 11-07-2020 1:46am

More material for the ads tonight after that absolutely disgraceful, completely expected action on Roger stone.

For about the 189th time, if you still support this despot then you are pretty much every bit as disgusting as he is. You own his actions.

amdublin · 11-07-2020 2:22am

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Indeed - Almost the direct inverse of what managed to scrape Trump over the line four years ago.

Then , GOP voters were far more motivated by hatred of Clinton than they were for love of Trump..

Funny how the world turns..

And now?

Do you think there is that "hatred" for Biden as there was for Clinton?
A possible obsession for Trump that could motivate them out to vote for the idiot?

Or have they seen the light I wonder?

jimmycrackcorm · 11-07-2020 2:54am

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Indeed - Almost the direct inverse of what managed to scrape Trump over the line four years ago.

Then , GOP voters were far more motivated by hatred of Clinton than they were for love of Trump..

Funny how the world turns..

I would not be surprised an iota if this happened. Also, I suspect there are quite a few Red republicans who are either ashamed or disillusioned by Trump and jsut wont vote for him.

It's one thing turning an 8 year democratic presidential run over to the GOP, another if you don't have that motivation and your guy is really an ass.

eagle eye · 11-07-2020 9:47am

amdublin wrote:

And now?

Do you think there is that "hatred" for Biden as there was for Clinton? A possible obsession for Trump that could motivate them out to vote for the idiot?
Or have they seen the light I wonder?

In 2016 Trump appealed to a class of people who don't often vote. The wall was a big part of that.
He had the Republicans fully behind him.
This time around he will struggle to get those wall voters to the poll.
It's clear to that there's a spilt in the Republican party as regards supporting him.
Biden is not hated. There's concerns for many over his ability to do the job due to his age but Trump's had four years and has only managed to alienate more people. He's the worst President in the history of the United States of America in the eyes of many people.
I can't see any way he can get enough votes to even make it close.

amdublin · 11-07-2020 1:47pm

eagle eye wrote: »

In 2016 Trump appealed to a class of people who don't often vote. The wall was a big part of that.
He had the Republicans fully behind him.
This time around he will struggle to get those wall voters to the poll.
It's clear to that there's a spilt in the Republican party as regards supporting him.
Biden is not hated. There's concerns for many over his ability to do the job due to his age but Trump's had four years and has only managed to alienate more people. He's the worst President in the history of the United States of America in the eyes of many people.
I can't see any way he can get enough votes to even make it close.

Thanks. Interesting take.

As an aside, I hope that Kanye West thing is just a publicity stunt and it just goes away

Muahahaha · 11-07-2020 2:10pm

amdublin wrote: »

And now?

Do you think there is that "hatred" for Biden as there was for Clinton?
A possible obsession for Trump that could motivate them out to vote for the idiot?

Or have they seen the light I wonder?

This came out in a Fox News poll a few weeks back. In 2016 Trump supporters were massively motivated by a hatred of Hillary but this factor is not the case with Biden this year. In fact the scenario has flipped with around 60% of intending Biden voters saying their main motivation for voting Biden is to get rid of Trump. Lots of Dems stayed home in 2016 because they didnt like Hillary whereas Joe has much more of a likeability factor.

I saw an analyst on tv say that women will decide this election and I think there is something in that. Right now Trump leads Biden with male voters by 6% but Biden leads Trump with female voters by 22%. That is a massive disparity and one that Trump simply has to claw back if he is to have any chance of winning.

Townton · 12-07-2020 1:18am

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I would not be surprised an iota if this happened. Also, I suspect there are quite a few Red republicans who are either ashamed or disillusioned by Trump and jsut wont vote for him.

It's one thing turning an 8 year democratic presidential run over to the GOP, another if you don't have that motivation and your guy is really an ass.

Latter is true trump has lost support among republican supporters/voters who aren't the hard core in your face member type but who would consistently vote republican. The race re the WH is over. That said it may not be the case that those will translate into senate votes. I know some colleagues who are the type of voter I mentioned turning their back on trump but have zero intentions to vote democrat down the ballot paper. They will stay with GOP on house and senate vote. Unless in the rare case they really like the democratic candidate.

So I think the WH will be a land slide but senate could very well and I think will just stay republican. That said the toss ups are really close even when taking into account some of the recent spreads in polling numbers. If it splits down the middle then the VP being a Democrat could like pence was in the first two years be the decider.

theguzman · 12-07-2020 1:24am

Kanye will run, Kanye will take enough black voters away from Biden in marginal states to elect Trump. This is what I think will happen and I am prediciting Biden to win the popular vote but Trump win the college.

Tell me how · 12-07-2020 2:55am

theguzman wrote: »

Kanye will run, Kanye will take enough black voters away from Biden in marginal states to elect Trump. This is what I think will happen and I am prediciting Biden to win the popular vote but Trump win the college.

Cannot see Kanye being on the ballot. He is too late to make it in several states so it really would be a pointless exercise.

If the intent is to seduce black voters away from Biden, they'd be better off getting Kanye to campaign for Trump. Hell, if Kanye announced he was going to play at a Trump rally, they'd at least get a reasonable turnout.

Think even Black America is aware of the BS of having a non-political person attempting to play politics.

Rjd2 · 12-07-2020 8:36am

eagle eye wrote: »

In 2016 Trump appealed to a class of people who don't often vote. The wall was a big part of that.
He had the Republicans fully behind him.
This time around he will struggle to get those wall voters to the poll.
It's clear to that there's a spilt in the Republican party as regards supporting him.
Biden is not hated. There's concerns for many over his ability to do the job due to his age but Trump's had four years and has only managed to alienate more people. He's the worst President in the history of the United States of America in the eyes of many people.
I can't see any way he can get enough votes to even make it close.

The major problem for him he has no message especially economic this time round and as Clinton said its all about the economy.

Last time round he clearly had a message about bringing back jobs to the rust belt which clearly resonated,,,this time round, Biden is running on an economic patriotism type vibe.

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1281239318950969344

Townton · 12-07-2020 9:29am

eagle eye wrote: »

In 2016 Trump appealed to a class of people who don't often vote. The wall was a big part of that.
He had the Republicans fully behind him.
This time around he will struggle to get those wall voters to the poll.
It's clear to that there's a spilt in the Republican party as regards supporting him.
Biden is not hated. There's concerns for many over his ability to do the job due to his age but Trump's had four years and has only managed to alienate more people. He's the worst President in the history of the United States of America in the eyes of many people.
I can't see any way he can get enough votes to even make it close.

Thing is a lot of people don't see him as the worst president ever (which itself as a statement is factually untrue dive into some presidential history you will change your mind pretty quick) as many even across the divide agreed he was doing very well in terms of the economy and even in many aspects (with notable expectations) in terms of forigen policy particularly in relation to China. His judicial appointments have also been pretty solid. All the moaning about republican judges being in his pocket proved as predicted to be false. Which is unsurprising given they are nearly all small government constitutionalists who are naturally weary of administrative agencies and executive power, as trump has since learned.

What nearly all agree with and is clear from even the less sensationalist staffers that have written books and given interviews etc. Is that he doesn't have the right temperament or personality and dispite his years in business he has proved useless when it comes to the basic management and running of an organisation. He is incapable of bridging the devide that said there is little evidence that there is any democrat who can. Finally as one republican friend said to me Biden offers a potential return to boring normality which is what he and alot of voters want at this stage. He likes alot of what Trump did he just can't stand the personality and wants a break from the hysteria (much of it induced by the media) , which I think we will find a lot of voters on both sides agree on.

Water John · 12-07-2020 1:17pm

A lot of independents and soft GOP will vote for Biden, on the basis of his normality but Biden in office may turn out to be more radical than they think, judging by recent hints. Biden himself will continue down the centre of the road but many of the key policy figures, VP and Cabinet may be more radical and he being a one term president will facilitate transition.
If it's managed correctly the GOP will find themselves unelectable.

Thargor · 12-07-2020 1:49pm

Kanye is having a bipolar episode at the minute, one of his worst, this isn't some strategy to help Trump or run himself, he's literally raving, expect to see him taking a long holiday in a clinic soon.

Townton · 12-07-2020 3:17pm

Water John wrote: »

A lot of independents and soft GOP will vote for Biden, on the basis of his normality but Biden in office may turn out to be more radical than they think, judging by recent hints. Biden himself will continue down the centre of the road but many of the key policy figures, VP and Cabinet may be more radical and he being a one term president will facilitate transition.
If it's managed correctly the GOP will find themselves unelectable.

And in two years there are house and senate elections. Obama lost the house after two years the Democrats (and indeed incumbents in general) will find it hard to hold all going well, if they entertain the more radical elements good by House and senate until 2024 or 2028 and maybe even the WH in 2024 if the GOP get their act together.

Sand · 12-07-2020 4:15pm

Townton wrote: »

And in two years there are house and senate elections. Obama lost the house after two years the Democrats (and indeed incumbents in general) will find it hard to hold all going well, if they entertain the more radical elements good by House and senate until 2024 or 2028 and maybe even the WH in 2024 if the GOP get their act together.

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

Muahahaha · 12-07-2020 4:31pm

Is there any chance of Texas falling to Democrats this November? Beto oRourke came within a whisker of getting elected there not too long ago.

KiKi III · 12-07-2020 5:21pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

I'm guessing once that happens, Republicans willl suddenly develop an interest in reforming the electoral college system.

Sand · 12-07-2020 7:17pm

KiKi III wrote: »

I'm guessing once that happens, Republicans willl suddenly develop an interest in reforming the electoral college system.

Whats the point? Republican and Democrat policies are largely indistinguishable on the points that matter to their investors.

Rjd2 · 12-07-2020 9:02pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

I think that's the one group Biden has somewhat struggled with this time round.

Republicans really should not write of that demo , their is definitely voters to be won their, although how Trump is handling the virus last few weeks like with all demos not helping.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/30/why-so-many-latino-voters-are-flocking-to-trumps-gop/

Water John · 12-07-2020 9:17pm

If you read this profile of Nikki Haley, you can see the clear diff between DNC and GOP. And the choice will be between some one like her or Tucker Carlson within the GOP.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/10/nikki-haley-post-trump-republican-party

Nody · 12-07-2020 9:20pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

They will go more heavy on the religious card instead to get Hispanic voters; more "joe vs. wade changes" etc. and play up the threat to their religion and beliefs basically. Add in some vague policies about climbing up towards middle class and beyond as part of "the American dream" to give them hope.

Rjd2 · 12-07-2020 9:43pm

Water John wrote: »

If you read this profile of Nikki Haley, you can see the clear diff between DNC and GOP. And the choice will be between some one like her or Tucker Carlson within the GOP.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/10/nikki-haley-post-trump-republican-party

Agreed.

2024 will be fascinating, the bookies will have her favourite but her zombie Reganism and very aggressive foreign policies are not in line with what the GOP base wants at the moment. Tucker has been very dismissive of her, she has to find a way to get that element aboard , that's a big ask.

Dan Crenshaw is another who will run and probably fail, a slave to the "free market is perfect" mantra and a hawk overseas .

rossie1977 · 12-07-2020 9:48pm

Sand wrote: »

Texas is on track to swing majority Hispanic in 2022. Once that happens, there will never be a Republican presidency again.

No chance that soon. Outside the big cities and southwest Texas its still a Republican stat

Sand wrote: »

Whats the point? Republican and Democrat policies are largely indistinguishable on the points that matter to their investors.

Couldn't be further from the truth. Check out the voting records between the parties..

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/2kaubu/just_a_reminder_of_what_the_senate_was_doing_the/

Water John · 12-07-2020 10:10pm

Biden is only one point behind Trump in Texas. We're into the margin of error territory.

Overheal · 12-07-2020 10:17pm

Water John wrote: »

Biden is only one point behind Trump in Texas. We're into the margin of error territory.

Another Texas poll has him up by 5 points against Trump. Texas is purple.

Townton · 12-07-2020 10:56pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Is there any chance of Texas falling to Democrats this November? Beto oRourke came within a whisker of getting elected there not too long ago.

They have been saying that for a couple of cycles at this stage. Reality is no, it might go Biden on a once off or because trump is the candidate, but Texes are old school republicans. Small government enthusiasts low taxes etc. Texes has done phenomenally well in the last two decades from its current approach. I have seen it with my own eyes it is unbelievable. Just measure it by the amount of people moving from California to Texas. From the flag ship democrat state to the flagship Republican. All that said my experience is that reasonable middle of the road republicans are far more likely to throw a republican out and vote democrat then the other way around. So given the current line up ya there is a good chance IMO in a once off switch.

To the Latino argument, just because they are Latino does not make them a solid Democrat voters. Especially when you push radical elements of the Democrats up against immigrants from the likes Venuzuela, Cuba or Nicaragua. Those newer immigrants tend not to be big fans of the socialist wing /element givin they blame the idea for driving them from their homes in the first place. But there are a lot of factors to the Latino voting block just don't make the mistake of thinking its a homogeneous voting block and never has been.

Townton · 12-07-2020 10:57pm

Overheal wrote: »

Another Texas poll has him up by 5 points against Trump. Texas is purple.

It's because the candidate is Trump trust me its not an inherently purple state. They just are like most other people they are not big fans of Trump.

Townton · 12-07-2020 11:01pm

Nody wrote: »

Add in some vague policies about climbing up towards middle class and beyond as part of "the American dream" to give them hope.

If they stay to long in Texas the republicans might actually convince them on that. Pre covid Texas was the place to be work and business wise. And is totally run by the GOP albeit level headed ones. If there is an argument for the republican way of doing things Texas is it. They could actually win the voters over.

13-07-2020 2:27am

Ironically that only works where you have immigration causing plenty of growth.

US Presidential Election 2020

Comments