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Spring 2018: General Discussion

13567…40

Comments

  • #102
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Plenty of time for heat in May, June and July.

    Which is not looking like going to happen, the signs get worse and worse.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #103
    Carol25
    Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Carol25


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Which is not looking like going to happen, the signs get worse and worse.

    Sryanbruen, do you ever read Ken Ring’s weather predictions? How much weight/merit does this guy have given his controversial views and opinions in general. He has some interesting weather predictions for this year published on 27th December in the Farmers Journal. Snow in June! He also hints at warm weather in July and briefly towards beginning of August.


  • #104
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Carol25 wrote: »
    Sryanbruen, do you ever read Ken Ring’s weather predictions? How much weight/merit does this guy have given his controversial views and opinions in general. He has some interesting weather predictions for this year published on 27th December in the Farmers Journal. Snow in June! He also hints at warm weather in July and briefly towards beginning of August.

    His forecasts hold little to no merit in my view. Not as bad as James Madden, but you'll notice Mr.Ring never has a non-controversial forecast, and that's not a coincidence.


  • #105
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Carol25 wrote: »
    Sryanbruen, do you ever read Ken Ring’s weather predictions? How much weight/merit does this guy have given his controversial views and opinions in general. He has some interesting weather predictions for this year published on 27th December in the Farmers Journal. Snow in June! He also hints at warm weather in July and briefly towards beginning of August.

    Only once I have due to how controversial he is, I do not know much about him so I can't really give an opinion. I do know he has posted on Boards.ie before because I've seen his posts looking through old threads.

    He has said that Summer 2018 after 2013 would be the next warm Summer. I was wondering where he got this from. As he got 2013 correct, I was intrigued. I'll be surprised to see him come out right about Summer 2018 seeing what all my methodology (for now at least) has to say about the potential scenarios for the season.

    Like with all long range forecasts, take them with a pinch of salt. I do them just for fun.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #106
    aidanodr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    RETURN OF THE BEAST? TV3 weatherman raises fears Beast from the East could return to cause chaos on St Patrick’s weekend
    Deric Ó hArtagáin has warned that recent patterns could be indicating a return of the weather hell

    https://twitter.com/deric_hartigan/status/972909547970015232


  • #107
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    RTE ME forecast mentioning a downward trend next weekend, don't change your winter tires just yet!


  • #108
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,970 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    IMG_1917.PNG.cbfd939921b1cab303e8d5fecd6c6e3a.PNG

    The beast is knocking on the door. Have you all changed your locks after the last event?


  • #109
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,590 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So far this looks more like the marginal situations we have too much experience with, at least for Ireland, agreed it looks somewhat promising for southern England on models. Not quite the same depth of cold air as last time, and a somewhat more resilient Atlantic, would not be too worried about a repeat of the earlier chaos, but chance for some -5 C lows and scattered light snowfalls.


  • #110
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    So far this looks more like the marginal situations we have too much experience with, at least for Ireland, agreed it looks somewhat promising for southern England on models. Not quite the same depth of cold air as last time, and a somewhat more resilient Atlantic, would not be too worried about a repeat of the earlier chaos, but chance for some -5 C lows and scattered light snowfalls.

    Given the chart above, do you reckon the Dublin Bay area has a decent shot at a bit of sticking snow? Looks to me like we'll be basically just inside the "cold tent", but I have very little experience with how these things pan out when you're right at the edge of them as opposed to firmly on one side or the other.


  • #111
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    ECM a shift north but similar to UKMO until +120hrs, end result = mini beast and a return to deep winter for a few days.

    Maybe we should call this one the Least from the East


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  • #112
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    CloughCasey1 wrote: »
    It gets the grass moving and with the current fodder crisis most farmers taking it in the neck and heavily on the pocket and that little bit of growth would take the pressure off. Farmers dug out the country the first time, lost stock, sheds and tillage farmers are weeks behind schedule. As much as i like snow i hope we dont get a second bite from the east!!

    Lovely to see daffodils and lambs..


  • #113
    DominoDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Maybe we should call this one the Least from the East

    I have just seen "Mandy from Scandi" on Twitter


  • #114
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Just think we go years without easterly, then two are a possibility within two weeks of each other.

    Just an observation, but with the increasing emphasis on cold war politics becoming established once again, that cold war atmospheric patterns curiously seem to be falling into line. The 'Beast from the East' and the 'Pest from the West' may come to have more meanings than one...

    New Moon



  • #115
    Calibos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    The Monster from Murmansk??


  • #116
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    I think heavy snow again so late in winter after so much so recently will really freak the public out!


  • #117
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,185 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Doesn't old weather lore say that when snow remains on the hills theres more to come? Well, I'm amazed that there are still large drifts at a very low level on the Dublin hills with temperatures back up to double figures and the nights mostly cloudy and quite a bit of rain too.
    They are obviously large drifts but as I said already they are at a very low level.

    With all that panic buying of bread how about The Yeast from the east?


  • #118
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,168 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.


  • #119
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.

    Kermit will probably wait till tomorrow at the earliest, perhaps Wednesday lol.


  • #120
    dacogawa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.

    I see a scene like this at around 18:20...

    giphy.gif


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  • #121
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    We should open a book on how long after the 12z run reaches 120h that someone (ahem) opens a thread.
    Billcarson wrote: »
    Kermit will probably wait till tomorrow at the earliest, perhaps Wednesday lol.

    As much and as though it brought great joy, I thought the previous thread was up and running maybe 24hrs before it was nailed.

    Weds is plenty of time for this. Let's not give heart attacks to the already war-weakened.


  • #122
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    Is the mini beast likely to be a Leinster only event?


  • #123
    sparrowcar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,868 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    20180312_182425.jpg
    how do you upload photos


  • #124
    dacogawa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    As much as I want to believe it I'm not going all in till tomorrow evening, we couldn't get that lucky twice in March, could we...

    (sticks head in sand and keeps remembering the 96 hour rule :D )


  • #125
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Good lord ECM..... maybe there won't be any St. Paddy's Day parades in Dublin this year.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #126
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    How does tonight's ECM compare with this time in 2013? I remember heavy rain/sleet/snow during Paddy's Day in Dublin in 2013. Didn't stick at all though. Trying to decide whether to hold some hopes for this spell or not. If we can't have cold/snow then please let's have March 2012 because I am fed up of this wet muck already.


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  • #127
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,438 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    BLIZZARD7 wrote:
    I just hope the rugby isn't affected...

    I only copped this today in work while I was beaming telling my everyone we could be in for another blast!


  • #128
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    How does tonight's ECM compare with this time in 2013? I remember heavy rain/sleet/snow during Paddy's Day in Dublin in 2013. Didn't stick at all though. Trying to decide whether to hold some hopes for this spell or not.

    2013 is laughable in comparison to this evening's ECM :pac:.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #129
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    2013 is laughable in comparison to this evening's ECM :pac:.
    Good because 2013 was a joke here! In Dublin 5, we had lying snow for 5 minutes on the 1st I think but of course I was in the city centre at the time so I saw no lying snow :rolleyes:. Then we had occasional snow but no lying snow at all.


  • #130
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Good because 2013 was a joke here! In Dublin 5, we had lying snow for 5 minutes on the 1st I think but of course I was in the city centre at the time so I saw no lying snow :rolleyes:. Then we had occasional snow but no lying snow at all.

    Let the anger go, man.

    I think this year should help assuage your pain.


  • #131
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Let the anger go, man.

    I think this year should help assuage your pain.
    I'm not angry at all :p. Even if I was, the late Feb/early March cold was more than enough to calm me down :o.


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  • #132
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Weather Advisory for Munster and Leinster
    Very wet and windy weather is expected to affect mainly Munster and south Leinster during Wednesday.

    Issued:Monday 12 March 2018 13:00
    Valid:Wednesday 14 March 2018 00:02 to Wednesday 14 March 2018 23:59

    Yikes.


  • #133
    Ultimate Seduction
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,464 ✭✭✭Ultimate Seduction


    What's the chances of having 1 day with no rain before Friday? North Munster. Need to get a job done before Friday


  • #134
    Clonmel1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Good lord ECM..... maybe there won't be any St. Paddy's Day parades in Dublin this year.

    As long as there’s white gold who cares eh?


  • #135
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    They may have performed okay for Emma, I.e a frontal event. Pretty useless for convective showers. Also the March sun will set off showers even over land, better for areas further West than it would be mid winter.

    13 degrees is the required differential, anything approaching 18 degrees or more can deliver very heavy snow showers. If we get sub -10c 850s I would be confident of heavy showers. The wind direction is very nice for Leinster on Saturday /Sunday on the ECM run.

    Just had to play devil's advocate :rolleyes:

    I actually wish this could wait a week. Just started a new job today and need to be there, unless of course the govt shuts us down again which they won't for anything less than a blizzard, as per 2010.

    Plus..we have a Grand Slam to win.

    Mind you England will probably be more handicapped by snowy conditions than we would.


  • #136
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Ultimate Seduction wrote: »
    What's the chances of having 1 day with no rain before Friday? North Munster. Need to get a job done before Friday
    This is how it looks:
    Tuesday: Rain later on
    Wednesday: Terrible
    Thursday: Some showers, maybe more prolonged rain early on.
    I'm afraid the odds are very low for a dry day in North Munster before Friday.

    Seriously, if this is what you people in the west endure with 90% of the year then I feel terrible for you!


  • #137
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Jesus if this pulls off I’ll be going to the shops early! The mother thought I was mad telling her to get a few messages In last time , struggled to get a bowl of cerial in to me most mornings !


  • #138
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,185 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Good lord ECM..... maybe there won't be any St. Paddy's Day parades in Dublin this year.
    O dear! The huge contingent thats coming over from North America, places like Boston, Chicago and Toronto etc will be "snow bound" in the airport by ............ 3 cms.
    Yeah I know, they're used to it and we aren't .....


  • #139
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Good lord ECM..... maybe there won't be any St. Paddy's Day parades in Dublin this year.

    Met Éireann have just issued a new warning for St. Patrick's Day:

    http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/03/14/met-eireann-predicts-heavy-shower-of-drunken-****-for-st-patricks-day-celebrations/

    New Moon



  • #140
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Is this looking like a possible event for the east only?


  • #141
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    leahyl wrote: »
    Is this looking like a possible event for the east only?

    Nothing certain so far, if it come off the east will bear the brunt of it but anywhere in the country could be affected.


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  • #142
    eug87
    Registered Users Posts: 134 ✭✭eug87


    Could anyone predict the worst/best case scenario off snow starting from the 17th onwards? Thanks


  • #143
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    eug87 wrote: »
    Could anyone predict the worst/best case scenario off snow starting from the 17th onwards? Thanks

    You mean as a snow fan or a concerned citizen?


  • #144
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Kermit has launched an event thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057851222

    Posting it here as I always miss them, and nobody can be sanely expected to keep checking the weather homepage. I've requested before to these to always be posted here, but that has gone largely unheeded (bar Syran) much to my dissapointed.


  • #145
    eug87
    Registered Users Posts: 134 ✭✭eug87


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    You mean as a snow fan or a concerned citizen?

    As a concerned JCB owner :)


  • #146
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Mmmmmmmm, another SSW, I don't really think so. The GFS shows no warming taking place in the foreseeable future within the stratosphere.

    https://twitter.com/zd1awrence/status/973312234238615552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefault%26f%3Dgavsweathervids1%26t_u%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.gavsweathervids.com%252Fcomments-3.php%26t_d%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26t_t%3DThird%2520Chat%2520And%2520Discussion%2520Thread%2520For%2520GWV%26s_o%3Ddefault%23version%3D3e91f895da97667a42583677a655c093

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #147
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,073 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS YELLOW

    Weather Advisory for Munster and Leinster
    Very wet and windy weather is expected to affect mainly Munster and south Leinster during Wednesday.

    Issued:Monday 12 March 2018 13:00
    Valid:Wednesday 14 March 2018 00:02 to Wednesday 14 March 2018 23:59


    STATUS YELLOW

    Weather Advisory for Munster and Leinster
    Very wet and windy weather is expected to affect mainly Munster and south Leinster during Wednesday.

    Issued:Monday 12 March 2018 13:00
    Valid:Wednesday 14 March 2018 00:02 to Wednesday 14 March 2018 23:59


    Looking like a blustery wet day across the country on Weds . Widespread winds gusting 80 km/h and higher in places possible ( perhaps up around 90 - 100 km/h on S / SE coasts earlier in the day ). Widespread rain and looks heaviest in southern counties.





    tempresult_gtw3.gif

    tempresult_inl2.gif

    tempresult_jmj5.gif


    nmmuk-25-51-0_zkk7.png


  • #148
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Lovely morning here in West Mayo. Walked the dog early and so calm and still. Came in to see the forecast..


  • #149
    jdcv94
    Registered Users Posts: 86 ✭✭jdcv94


    Woke up for work this morning to a lovely almost warm sun rise.

    Then I came in here and saw the thread :eek:


  • #150
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    storm wednesday snow saturday exciting week ahead


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  • #151
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,185 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    The temp has jumped from 1c to 9c in less than two hours in the spring sunshine. Is this cold snap still a goer? Not really interested, just hoping for a reasonably good summer and optimistic for next winter because solar cycle 25 is predicted to be the quietest "in centuries".


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