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11-04-2015, 10:05   #1
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General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

Tipperary North Riding and Tipperary South Riding County Councils have been abolished and in the next General Election Tipperary will be a five seater constituency replacing the two old three seaters.

Who are going to take the seats? Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, and Sinn Fein are very weak in the constituency. The only strong candidate allied to a Party is Alan Kelly of Labour.

Prediction

Mattie McGrath
Michael Lowry
Alan Kelly
A.N.Another
A.N.Another

If Fine Gael could persuade the former Tipperary Hurler, Eoin Kelly to stand he would romp home!
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12-04-2015, 00:44   #2
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Originally Posted by Xenophile View Post
Tipperary North Riding and Tipperary South Riding County Councils have been abolished and in the next General Election Tipperary will be a five seater constituency replacing the two old three seaters.

Who are going to take the seats? Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, and Sinn Fein are very weak in the constituency. The only strong candidate allied to a Party is Alan Kelly of Labour.

Prediction

Mattie McGrath
Michael Lowry
Alan Kelly
A.N.Another
A.N.Another

If Fine Gael could persuade the former Tipperary Hurler, Eoin Kelly to stand he would romp home!
Mattie will struggle as he is not as populer as he once was plus the voters in mid and north tipp would not vote for him.

Tom Hayes has a strong enough base out west plus he will gather up the FG votes in other areas.

Alan Kelly is a safe enough bet as well.

Lowry is almost unbackable to get back in.

Is Healy planning to stand again? If he does his power base is very localised to Clonmel which could prove a problem.


So Lowry(Ind), Kelly(Lab), Hayes(FG) I think will get in but unsure about the rest at this time.
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12-04-2015, 10:58   #3
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There might be two FG seats but lowery has a vice like grip on one of them. He will take a lot of FG votes North and South. He may be independent but as the election approaches he will be constantly linked to propping up a FG government so the links between him and the party will be highlighted over the coming months which may help FG form the next government but will cost them a second seat in Tipp in the election.

That leaves one seat for FG. That's a straight fight between their two sitting TDs. My bet is Hayes will hold his seat. If party HQ parachute in a new candidate like Eoin Kelly there is still only one seat for them. There is no way FG will in effect take three seats out of five (Lowery, Hayes and an other) with the party down significantly from last time. Hayes won't allow someone be parachuted in to take his seat. There was talk about a year ago that Hayes would take over from Sean Barrett and therefore be returned automatically freeing up the FG vote for someone else. But Barrett seems to have survived the threat to his position so that seems unlikely now.

Alan Kelly is a dead man walking. He is really hated by the South Tipp Labour Party so they won't be going out of their way to help him in the south. Labour are in a serious decline and will be lucky to come back with 3-4 TDs and he won't be one of them unless the whole constituency rally around him.

There is probably a FF seat and it looks like Siobhan Ambrose a main candidate for a nomination. She is popular around Clonmel but no county wide profile. But she takes up a gender quota slot so she is almost certain for a nomination through the convention. There will be one FF candidate from the north but there is no clear candidate for that yet. Michael Smith Jr. wants the nomination but he blotted his copybook when he broke ranks to grab the Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job. There was a meeting of senior party members recently at which they were told he was running as Fianna Fáil or he was running as an independent and they could decide. They basically told him to **** off at that point so he is now unlikely to get through a convention. There is talk of them having two conventions North and South.

The big problem for FF is Mattie. He went on the radio with Claire Byrne and basically said he would rejoin FF after the next election when John McGuinness took over as party leader. He claimed hundreds of party members were begging him to rejoin the party. So that's Mattie playing a clever game. He is positioning himself as FF-lite in the national media so he will pick up FF votes in the North. My bet is he will take the FF seat with Ambrose and AN Other losing out. Ambrose however could get a FF nod for the Senate and be there for the seat when Mattie steps down.

Seamus Healy could be in a real scrap for his seat. He has no profile outside Clonmel and the surrounding villages. He will poll very badly in the north. His base ia also a very left wing vote. If you walk around working class estates you often see Healy stickers in the windows. Sinn Fein could threaten that base. As could the various other small left wing parties (anti-austerity alliance etc).

Sinn Fein are apparently sniffing around for a high profile candidate. Historically they have no real presence in the county but if they can parachute someone in and the party keeps rising in the national polls I think they could take a seat. But it all depends on who they pull out of the hat. There is a seat between Healy and Sinn Fein.

Renua will run a candidate. I hear they have lined up a sitting independent councillor. They have to go through the illusion of sitting up a party and holding a convention but a couple of local cllrs have already told their supporters that they are joining Renua and one of those is likely to be the candidate. The problem is they seem stuck on 1-2% so I can't see them taking a seat.

So my bet for the next election is

Lowery Ind
Hayes FG
Mattie Ind
Healy/Sinn Fein
And a real dog fight for the last seat between Ambrose, A Kelly, Coonan, and whoever else pops up.

Last edited by touts; 13-04-2015 at 06:38.
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14-04-2015, 09:02   #4
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http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2056966425

Why open up a new thread? were you not banging on about this topic already
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14-04-2015, 16:07   #5
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The thread you refer to was opened in June 2013, in hindsight a good deal too early, now that it's getting closer to the election I am sure that there are some posters here who may now wish to express an opinion over the course of the next few months!
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14-04-2015, 22:55   #6
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The only candidate that has any chance of a cabinet position is Alan Kelly.
Lowry would do a deal with anyone to keep them in.

I don't agree with either of them politically but voting for any of the rest is a wasted vote from a Tipperary point of view IMHO . Fair play to any mature voter who decides from a national view as opposed to local.

I find it impossible that a "Clonmel" candidate wouldn't be returned given the size of the place. Its a fair span from roscrea to Carrick.
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15-04-2015, 07:16   #7
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Fair play to any mature voter who decides from a national view as opposed to local.
I would agree with the above statement. Some issues even though they are anchored in particular constituencies in an indirect way impact on the country overall and in particular the taxpayer. I cite the following example,

How many people are aware that there is a proposal on the books to upgrade the N20 from Limerick to Cork as part of the "Atlantic Corridor". As part of this plan traffic from Limerick en route to Rosslare would be diverted through Mallow. This would be done at the expense of upgrading the N24. It makes no sense to add so many additional kilometers between Limerick and Waterford, keep in mind that fuel prices will not always be as low as they are now and that there is a very high volume of commercial traffic between Rosslare Port all the way to Sligo.

It has been famously said that "all politics is local" and with this in mind anyone running for election in Tipperary should keep in mind that the N24 runs from Monard on the far side of Limerick Junction to just beyond Carrick- on-Suir all this stretch of roadway is in County Tipperary.

Just take a look at a map and see how far south you would have to travel to arrive in Waterford via Mallow. It just makes no sense especially when one looks at the dangerous and congested state of the N24 through the towns of Tipperary and Carrick-on-Suir and to some extent Clonmel.
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18-04-2015, 05:29   #8
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Independent Tipperary South TD Seamus Healy is receiving a pension from the HSE.

Why should he run again as he is also entitled to a Dail pension?

If he runs again I think he should try and join Sinn Fein as they are weak in the constituency overall, he is singing from the same hymn sheet as Sinn Fein.

Let him join Sinn Fein and let him help Sinn Fein to become a main stream party of substance. Healy's Independent base has been virtually wiped out since Clonmel Borough was abolished at the last Local elections.

Last edited by Xenophile; 18-04-2015 at 05:32.
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19-04-2015, 14:47   #9
 
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The North of the constituency like Lorrha and Obama country leaves the constituency

Won't help Alan Kelly at all. I don't think he will be elected even if he is a minister
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19-04-2015, 20:29   #10
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The North of the constituency like Lorrha and Obama country leaves the constituency

Won't help Alan Kelly at all. I don't think he will be elected even if he is a minister
My point was that it depends on the voters attitude. I'd imagine we'll get fg/lab plus a few independents or Fianna fail next time.
If you're considering "Tipperary", you want a minister at cabinet. No matter how you look at it politically Kelly being labour 2nd in command is the only one in with a shout. Independents don't get cabinet seats and ff or fg tds will be well down the pecking order. Hayes is junior ag minister. That's as far as he's gonna go.
On the other hand if you're voting locally people will return Mattie and hayes from South tipp anyway possibly Healy? Hayes would have been at family funerals over the years and I'd say he wouldn't know any of us! That stuff seems to matter to some folks though

Personally speaking I don't think it matters a jot who gets in.
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19-04-2015, 22:34   #11
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I agree 100% with Digzys last line...And I hope the only seat Kelly gets,will be from Larry O' Keeffe....
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19-04-2015, 23:41   #12
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The North of the constituency like Lorrha and Obama country leaves the constituency

Won't help Alan Kelly at all. I don't think he will be elected even if he is a minister
He is working hard in Southern end with a full time staff member employed in an office in a prime location in Clonmel.
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19-04-2015, 23:47   #13
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I agree 100% with Digzys last line...And I hope the only seat Kelly gets,will be from Larry O' Keeffe....
Of course it matters, on the other hand they are all on ego trips, no difference between the ego trip of Hilary Clinton and Alan Kelly, it's just a matter of some egos being more intelligent than others!
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28-04-2015, 16:34   #14
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There might be two FG seats but lowery has a vice like grip on one of them. He will take a lot of FG votes North and South. He may be independent but as the election approaches he will be constantly linked to propping up a FG government so the links between him and the party will be highlighted over the coming months which may help FG form the next government but will cost them a second seat in Tipp in the election.

That leaves one seat for FG. That's a straight fight between their two sitting TDs. My bet is Hayes will hold his seat. If party HQ parachute in a new candidate like Eoin Kelly there is still only one seat for them. There is no way FG will in effect take three seats out of five (Lowery, Hayes and an other) with the party down significantly from last time. Hayes won't allow someone be parachuted in to take his seat. There was talk about a year ago that Hayes would take over from Sean Barrett and therefore be returned automatically freeing up the FG vote for someone else. But Barrett seems to have survived the threat to his position so that seems unlikely now..
Agree one seat for FG. coonan waiting to see if FF run Smith if they do , he wont stand, if they don't then he will.
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Alan Kelly is a dead man walking. He is really hated by the South Tipp Labour Party so they won't be going out of their way to help him in the south. Labour are in a serious decline and will be lucky to come back with 3-4 TDs and he won't be one of them unless the whole constituency rally around him.
Agree, the candidate from Roscrea in locals that almost made it has left labour. Kelly despised in North End as well as south.Also a large part around Nenagh gone into Offaly

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There is probably a FF seat and it looks like Siobhan Ambrose a main candidate for a nomination. She is popular around Clonmel but no county wide profile. But she takes up a gender quota slot so she is almost certain for a nomination through the convention. There will be one FF candidate from the north but there is no clear candidate for that yet. Michael Smith Jr. wants the nomination but he blotted his copybook when he broke ranks to grab the Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job. There was a meeting of senior party members recently at which they were told he was running as Fianna Fáil or he was running as an independent and they could decide. They basically told him to **** off at that point so he is now unlikely to get through a convention.
This did not happen, Smith didn't tell anyone that he would stand as independant. Also that is untrue with regard to the "Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job." there was a shaft done with regard to the Chairman of the Thurles/ Templemore area, Smith was nominated by the non FF/Fg members came to a tie and he voted for himself.
Will be a very interesting convention and will largely depend on one for whole of tipp or one for North and one for south, if the latter will be a straight fight between smith and cahil for nomination- hanifin has pulled out and hogan has as much chance as yogi bear.



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The big problem for FF is Mattie. He went on the radio with Claire Byrne and basically said he would rejoin FF after the next election when John McGuinness took over as party leader. He claimed hundreds of party members were begging him to rejoin the party. So that's Mattie playing a clever game. He is positioning himself as FF-lite in the national media so he will pick up FF votes in the North. My bet is he will take the FF seat with Ambrose and AN Other losing out. Ambrose however could get a FF nod for the Senate and be there for the seat when Mattie steps down.
Thing is Mattie has very little support up North, and Lowery will eat into the independent vote down south
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Seamus Healy could be in a real scrap for his seat. He has no profile outside Clonmel and the surrounding villages. He will poll very badly in the north. His base ia also a very left wing vote. If you walk around working class estates you often see Healy stickers in the windows. Sinn Fein could threaten that base. As could the various other small left wing parties (anti-austerity alliance etc).

Sinn Fein are apparently sniffing around for a high profile candidate. Historically they have no real presence in the county but if they can parachute someone in and the party keeps rising in the national polls I think they could take a seat. But it all depends on who they pull out of the hat. There is a seat between Healy and Sinn Fein.
Agree Sinn Fein will be there or there abouts for a seat, did well in locals in all areas, whether or not vote was for the person or the party will be interesting, cant see healy making it.
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Renua will run a candidate. I hear they have lined up a sitting independent Councillor. They have to go through the illusion of sitting up a party and holding a convention but a couple of local cllrs have already told their supporters that they are joining Renua and one of those is likely to be the candidate. The problem is they seem stuck on 1-2% so I can't see them taking a seat.
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So my bet for the next election is

Lowery Ind
Hayes FG
Mattie Ind
Healy/Sinn Fein
And a real dog fight for the last seat between Ambrose, A Kelly, Coonan, and whoever else pops up.
My bet is
Lowry
hayes
Smith
Mattie
and dog fight for last seat between Shin Fein/ Healy and Kelly with Sinn Fein taking it.
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28-04-2015, 21:53   #15
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This did not happen, Smith didn't tell anyone that he would stand as independant. Also that is untrue with regard to the "Deputy Mayor of Tiperary job." there was a shaft done with regard to the Chairman of the Thurles/ Templemore area, Smith was nominated by the non FF/Fg members came to a tie and he voted for himself.
Will be a very interesting convention and will largely depend on one for whole of tipp or one for North and one for south, if the latter will be a straight fight between smith and cahil for nomination- hanifin has pulled out and hogan has as much chance as yogi bear
Unfortunately for Smith it did happen. It wasn't Smith himself who said it but I have it from two FF people who were at the CDC constituency meeting where it was put to the meeting by a person VERY close to Smith in those blunt terms. The quote from both of them was "he'll run for Fianna Fáil or he'll run as an independent. You decide". It went down very badly at the meeting among representatives from North and South. His only chance of a nomination is from HQ and after the Chairman thing he is unlikely to get that as they will not want to be seen to reward disloyalty. Smith allowed himself to get played by the Lowery camp who dangled a carrot of a made up meaningless title in front of him and now he is in trouble.
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