General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

pooch90

Xenophile wrote: »

Mattie McGrath has shown himself to be out of touch with the electorate and especially out of touch with young people.

Despite his high media profile campaign for a NO vote Tipperary voted as follows in the Marriage Equality Referendum.

Tipperary South 56.12% Yes

Tipperary North 54.68% Yes

He has completely shot himself in the foot,nobody I know under 50 would consider voting for him now.

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Mattie McGrath has shown himself to be out of touch with the electorate and especially out of touch with young people.

Despite his high media profile campaign for a NO vote Tipperary voted as follows in the Marriage Equality Referendum.

Tipperary South 56.12% Yes

Tipperary North 54.68% Yes

Mattie doesn't need 50%+ to win a seat. Be needs 20% or slightly less. IONA have been complaining that no one in the Dail represents the 37% who voted No. Well in Tipperary now Mattie can. I think he was on the wrong side but I don't think for a moment because he was on that side because he believes in it. He was on that side because it got him airtime. Mattie resigned from Fianna Fail over attempts to limit the numbers of breeding bitches puppy farmers could keep in appalling conditions in a shed. That was purely about him getting off the Titanic. His No stance was purely about raising his profile among the 20% of his new constituents in North Tipp he needs to vote for him next year.

solerina

pooch90 wrote: »

He has completely shot himself in the foot,nobody I know under 50 would consider voting for him now.

I am well under 50 and I would vote for him, I don't agree with his views on the marriage referendum but that's not the only reason to vote/not to vote for him...if you need something he will get it sorted for you, that's the reason most people will vote for him...the others will talk the talk but if you need them for any reason- you can forget about it !! I can look at him in more than one dimension, and I am sure others can too !!

pooch90

I said nobody I knew, I don't know you!

solerina

pooch90 wrote: »

I said nobody I knew, I don't know you!

I was merely saying that the people you know may not be representative Many of those under 50 as you implied !!!

touts

FG have selected Noel Coonan and Tom Hayes to contest the election. It is a two candidate (1 North 1 South) strategy so I understand Eoin Kelly will not be added to the ticket.

FF have their selection convention tonight. They are running two candidates (again 1 North 1 South) but only one will be picked tonight. The North Slot is between Michael Smith Jnr and Jackie Cahill. John Carroll was running but has apparently pulled out because of the enforced 1 North 1 South choice. He wanted both slots decided tonight in the hope of getting two from the North and none from the South and figured there were enough FF members in the North to get that. The South Slot is between Martin Mansergh, Siobhan Ambrose & Imelda Goldsboro. They will all vote for one candidate and then FF HQ will nominate the second person from the unrepresented area (North or South). Apparently Jackie Cahill is proving very popular both North and South based on his ICMSA president background and could spring a surprise over the longer established names.

Xenophile

Councillor Jackie Cahill was selected to contest the general election for the party in Tipperary.

Just wondering if this is the same Jackie Cahill who writes on a regular basis in the Examiner on Tipperary GAA?

touts

Xenophile wrote: »

Councillor Jackie Cahill was selected to contest the general election for the party in Tipperary.

Just wondering if this is the same Jackie Cahill who writes on a regular basis in the Examiner on Tipperary GAA?

No. That Jackie Cahill is a sports journalist who has been knocking around a few media outlets for a few years.

Reading the reports in the Times and Independent it seems Cahill was just behind Smith Jnr on the first count but basically hovered up the second preferences and comfortably won the nomination in the end. Looks like Smith pissing people off in the build up might have cost him in the end. They either voted for him from the start or they didn't touch him.

On a 1 from the North and 1 from the South strategy it looks like it will be a straight choice between Ambrose and Goldsboro for the second slot. Anyone know which of those polled better last night? I'm assuming Mansergh is not in the running given his age, gender and low support at the convention. I'm also assuming there isn't a celeb candidate they can pull out of the hat. It will be interesting to see if Smith now spits out his dummy and runs as an independent.

I'd say Cahill could be a real threat for a seat. His ICMSA background will be popular in a constituency with a lot of farmers. He'll also do Mattie McGrath a lot of damage as now the rural FF vote that went to Mattie may have new home. Mattie's strategy of playing footsie with John McGuinness under the radio studio table may have to change now as he can't continue to say he is an independent who will join FF after the election. Maybe that's why he jumped on the conservative catholic bandwagon in the referendum.

Alan Kelly & Lab have had a good week with the Marriage Equality result but the water bills are starting to hit now and he's the man who will be in the firing line between now and the election.

Based on all that I'll revise my previous prediction of who will win the seats to:

Michael Lowery Ind
Tom Hayes FG
Mattie McGrath Ind
Healy/Sinn Fein
Jackie Cahill FF

jem

first Pref votes from last night
mm 37
Goldsboro 82
ambrose 173
cahil 260
smith 300

Assume FF will put ambrose on ticket.
Then there is a problem.
Cahil in home town Lowry. sitting
Up north Coonan sitting ( last time Hoctor got very poor vote from Roscrea/Templemore FF)
to the west kelly sitting
so has to go south for votes .

Coonan so so happy today. Would have lost seat had smith stood, now home and hosed.
My revised prediction
Lowry ind
Coonan fg

fight for 3.
sinn fein
mcgrath
kelly
hayes
ambrose/cahil

gut says Sinn fein has enough to get seat
Likewise mcgrath will pick votes

so down to kelly/hayes and a FF.
Ambrose will be hoping to get ahead of Cahill (hence her huge transfer to Cahill 3/1)

FF might and only might scrape seat (60/40 against)

the dark phantom

Xenophile wrote: »

I would agree with the above statement. Some issues even though they are anchored in particular constituencies in an indirect way impact on the country overall and in particular the taxpayer. I cite the following example,

How many people are aware that there is a proposal on the books to upgrade the N20 from Limerick to Cork as part of the "Atlantic Corridor". As part of this plan traffic from Limerick en route to Rosslare would be diverted through Mallow. This would be done at the expense of upgrading the N24. It makes no sense to add so many additional kilometers between Limerick and Waterford, keep in mind that fuel prices will not always be as low as they are now and that there is a very high volume of commercial traffic between Rosslare Port all the way to Sligo.

It has been famously said that "all politics is local" and with this in mind anyone running for election in Tipperary should keep in mind that the N24 runs from Monard on the far side of Limerick Junction to just beyond Carrick- on-Suir all this stretch of roadway is in County Tipperary.

Just take a look at a map and see how far south you would have to travel to arrive in Waterford via Mallow. It just makes no sense especially when one looks at the dangerous and congested state of the N24 through the towns of Tipperary and Carrick-on-Suir and to some extent Clonmel.

That's totally wrong on so many points. Although the N24 is a shocking road, The N20 to Mallow is just as crap, And won't be upgraded anytime soon.

The AC was never planned to replace the N24, Its planned to improve south eastern access(Wexford, Waterford) to Cork, And access along the west (Limerick/Galway/Ennis/Sligo) from south (Cork) to north (Letterkenny/Derry).

touts

jem wrote: »

first Pref votes from last night
mm 37
Goldsboro 82
ambrose 173
cahil 260
smith 300

Assume FF will put ambrose on ticket.
Then there is a problem.
Cahil in home town Lowry. sitting
Up north Coonan sitting ( last time Hoctor got very poor vote from Roscrea/Templemore FF)
to the west kelly sitting
so has to go south for votes .

Coonan so so happy today. Would have lost seat had smith stood, now home and hosed.
My revised prediction
Lowry ind
Coonan fg

fight for 3.
sinn fein
mcgrath
kelly
hayes
ambrose/cahil

gut says Sinn fein has enough to get seat
Likewise mcgrath will pick votes

so down to kelly/hayes and a FF.
Ambrose will be hoping to get ahead of Cahill (hence her huge transfer to Cahill 3/1)

FF might and only might scrape seat (60/40 against)

Lowry is still strongly associated with FG, picks up a lot of old FG votes and as the election approaches those links will be highlighted as he will be constantly mentioned as propping up a FG led government. If your prediction comes about that means there are in effect three FG seats from 5. Can't see it unless they have one hell of a turnaround in the polls. 2011 yes they would have done it with the tidal wave of support that carried them to power. Lots of 2nd seats were won on transfers which they will lose this time. There is a seat between Hayes and Coonan but the question is which one is the vulnerable second seat. My bet is with Cahill now taking a lot of the farmer & rural vote in the North Coonan could be in big trouble. Just can't see any way he will keep his seat to be honest.

I'd also agree that there is a left wing seat but it will be a fight between Healy and Sinn Fein. It'll depend on who Sinn Fein run. If it is a popular name (not another elderly party hack like they have run in recent elections) they will unseat Healy. But they would need to find someone fairly quickly.

Ambrose won't beat Cahill for the FF seat. But I could see her get a Senate nod (assuming it is still Cllrs only voting).

touts

the dark phantom wrote: »

That's totally wrong on so many points. Although the N24 is a shocking road, The N20 to Mallow is just as crap, And won't be upgraded anytime soon.

The AC was never planned to replace the N24, Its planned to improve south eastern access(Wexford, Waterford) to Cork, And access along the west (Limerick/Galway/Ennis/Sligo) from south (Cork) to north (Letterkenny/Derry).

Neither road will be upgraded in the next 10-15 years. The two projects are dead in the water. Any candidate who promises otherwise is telling fairytales.

jem

touts wrote: »

Lowry is still strongly associated with FG, picks up a lot of old FG votes and as the election approaches those links will be highlighted as he will be constantly mentioned as propping up a FG led government. If your prediction comes about that means there are in effect three FG seats from 5. Can't see it unless they have one hell of a turnaround in the polls. 2011 yes they would have done it with the tidal wave of support that carried them to power. Lots of 2nd seats were won on transfers which they will lose this time. There is a seat between Hayes and Coonan but the question is which one is the vulnerable second seat. My bet is with Cahill now taking a lot of the farmer & rural vote in the North Coonan could be in big trouble. Just can't see any way he will keep his seat to be honest.

I'd also agree that there is a left wing seat but it will be a fight between Healy and Sinn Fein. It'll depend on who Sinn Fein run. If it is a popular name (not another elderly party hack like they have run in recent elections) they will unseat Healy. But they would need to find someone fairly quickly.

Ambrose won't beat Cahill for the FF seat. But I could see her get a Senate nod (assuming it is still Cllrs only voting).

first of all I am not saying ambrose will get ahead but that is her hope and part of the 3/1 transfer last night.
had smith been in the field Coonan was gone.
now he is in with great chance. Cahil will pick up few votes in Roscrea area. Seen as a back stabber.also bear in mind his small vote in the locals (elected without reaching the quota) and Roscrea area wanting a localish TD.
Roomer has it that sinn fein trying its damnedest to get healy to run for them.
Lowry long past the FG tag, it is a huge personal vote and his preferences dont go to FG any more than other parties

touts

jem wrote: »

first of all I am not saying ambrose will get ahead but that is her hope and part of the 3/1 transfer last night.
had smith been in the field Coonan was gone.
now he is in with great chance. Cahil will pick up few votes in Roscrea area. Seen as a back stabber.also bear in mind his small vote in the locals (elected without reaching the quota) and Roscrea area wanting a localish TD.
Roomer has it that sinn fein trying its damnedest to get healy to run for them.
Lowry long past the FG tag, it is a huge personal vote and his preferences dont go to FG any more than other parties

Out of curiosity why is Cahill considered a backstabber?

tipptom

jem wrote: »

first of all I am not saying ambrose will get ahead but that is her hope and part of the 3/1 transfer last night.
had smith been in the field Coonan was gone.
now he is in with great chance. Cahil will pick up few votes in Roscrea area. Seen as a back stabber.also bear in mind his small vote in the locals (elected without reaching the quota) and Roscrea area wanting a localish TD.
Roomer has it that sinn fein trying its damnedest to get healy to run for them.
Lowry long past the FG tag, it is a huge personal vote and his preferences dont go to FG any more than other parties

If Coonan holds his seat ill eat my hat.
Think Kelly will struggle as well with Labours vote decimated nationally and will struggle with transfers.

jem

tipptom wrote: »

If Coonan holds his seat ill eat my hat.
Think Kelly will struggle as well with Labours vote decimated nationally and will struggle with transfers.

I wouldn't throw out the salt and vinegar so.
He had 0% chance with Smith in the field.
Kelly I would have said had maybe 20/30% chance at best.
Now all up in the air cant see the swath of Roscrea/Templemore/ Nenagh with no TD.

tipptom

jem wrote: »

I wouldn't throw out the salt and vinegar so.
He had 0% chance with Smith in the field.
Kelly I would have said had maybe 20/30% chance at best.
Now all up in the air cant see the swath of Roscrea/Templemore/ Nenagh with no TD.

Could be a big swathe from clonmel to Carrick on Suir with no rep possibly to.
Think a lot of people were put of by Kellys speech in the Dail(incl some in his own party) during the water debacle (in which I thought he done well)about HIS Legacy
Think Coonan was lucky to hold his seat last time even with the FG bounce and the FF wipeout,must be the luckiest TD in the country due to circumstances but his luck will run out next time.


Not a supporter of FF by any stretch but if I was in the party I would have objected to him even running for a nomination never mind getting a nomination from head office and I think it would be foolish to run him never mind leaving the south unattended,foolish to run 3.




There are a lot of final seats in the last election that FG TDs scraped in and will not hold this time and there are a lot of seats that FF can regain incl Tipp,can see FF hitting 35+.


See people on here mentioning SF having a chance of a seat in Tipp,wouldnt have said that was on the cards in Tipp,who are they running?

Xenophile

tipptom wrote: »

[/B]
Could be a big swathe from clonmel to Carrick on Suir with no rep possibly to.
Think a lot of people were put of by Kellys speech in the Dail(incl some in his own party) during the water debacle (in which I thought he done well)about HIS Legacy
Think Coonan was lucky to hold his seat last time even with the FG bounce and the FF wipeout,must be the luckiest TD in the country due to circumstances but his luck will run out next time.


Not a supporter of FF by any stretch but if I was in the party I would have objected to him even running for a nomination never mind getting a nomination from head office and I think it would be foolish to run him never mind leaving the south unattended,foolish to run 3.




There are a lot of final seats in the last election that FG TDs scraped in and will not hold this time and there are a lot of seats that FF can regain incl Tipp,can see FF hitting 35+.


See people on here mentioning SF having a chance of a seat in Tipp,wouldnt have said that was on the cards in Tipp,who are they running?

No credible politicians in FF or FG with the potential of getting a seat at the cabinet table.

Lowry will sit on the fence and vote for Kenny as Taoiseach, and maybe be rewarded for this.

Sinn Fein so far are non runners, their promises are so off the wall, we are hardly that gullible in Tipperary.

Alan Kelly is Tipperary's only hope for a seat in the cabinet position.

Healy and McGrath naysayers.

tipptom

Xenophile wrote: »

No credible politicians in FF or FG with the potential of getting a seat at the cabinet table.

Lowry will sit on the fence and vote for Kenny as Taoiseach, and maybe be rewarded for this.

Sinn Fein so far are non runners, their promises are so off the wall, we are hardly that gullible in Tipperary.

Alan Kelly is Tipperary's only hope for a seat in the cabinet position.

Healy and McGrath naysayers.

Will be hard for him to hold a cabinet position when he will be of a party that will be wiped out in the next GE as any by election and council elections have shown heretofore never mind his own difficulties holding his seat.
SF will hold treble of Labours seats in the next GE and I am basing that on them not gaining anything like their polls are showing them gaining at the moment as they will not get the transfers.


More likely a FG/FF axis with an Independent grouping.


I think Hayes might be the only one in Tipp with any hope of a sniff of a junior cabinet position and that's highly unlikely.


Cant see how Lowry will have any influence on Enda Kenny being Taoisigh.

Xenophile

tipptom wrote: »

Will be hard for him to hold a cabinet position when he will be of a party that will be wiped out in the next GE as any by election and council elections have shown heretofore never mind his own difficulties holding his seat.
SF will hold treble of Labours seats in the next GE and I am basing that on them not gaining anything like their polls are showing them gaining at the moment as they will not get the transfers.


More likely a FG/FF axis with an Independent grouping.


I think Hayes might be the only one in Tipp with any hope of a sniff of a junior cabinet position and that's highly unlikely.


Cant see how Lowry will have any influence on Enda Kenny being Taoisigh.

I agree with most of what you say. I would not be surprised if Labour are included with FG and FF in the formation of the next Government as so far they have proved to be very reliable in this Government and no one will want to touch Sinn Feinn with a barge pole. However in this scenario the big debate will be in the Labour party as to whether or not they are prepared to enter Govt. again.

tipptom

Xenophile wrote: »

I agree with most of what you say. I would not be surprised if Labour are included with FG and FF in the formation of the next Government as so far they have proved to be very reliable in this Government and no one will want to touch Sinn Feinn with a barge pole. However in this scenario the big debate will be in the Labour party as to whether or not they are prepared to enter Govt. again.

I think if Labour find themselves of being in the unlikely position of being offered a chance of going in to government again they would be mad to turn it down as they may as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb now.
I think they would have been the strongest party in the country at the next GE if the party grandees had not wanted their last chance at a ministerial position and they wont have to take the stick on the door steps this time now that they have deserted.


They would be better to continue on with the programme now if they got the opportunity and get some back goodwill back from their policy's with the country continuing on an upward trend and goodies being handed out.


The people will speak first though on if they get that chance to have that option and then they got to get it through their own party blocs and I don't have much confidence on their succeeding in their first task never mind the second.

Xenophile

Mattie is looking to establish another quango.
In the run up to the General Election he will be telling us how many unnecessary quangos we have.

Good man Mattie you never lose a trick when it comes to getting a few headlines.

"The Dáil is set to vote down a bill to create a separate ombudsman for Irish Water.

The government is rejecting a bill from Independent TD Mattie McGrath, which is being debated this morning.

Ministers say the energy regulator can already deal with customer complaints so there is no need for a new body.

But Deputy McGrath says Irish Water is promoting waste not only within itself, but in the Department of Social Protection as well."

the dark phantom

Mattie is a gombeen anyway, Tipp is seriously short of political talent.

Xenophile

the dark phantom wrote: »

Tipp is seriously short of political talent.

I agree, despite is obvious lust for power and his other failings, Alan Kelly is talented enough to sit at the Cabinet Table!

touts

Latest rumours are that Cllr Richie Molloy will be confirmed as the Renua General Election Candidate in the next few weeks.

Also Cllr John Carroll who opted out of the FF convention at the last minute a couple of weeks ago has apparently signed up with Mattie McGrath and will be his running mate in the North of the county.

With Carroll on the Mattie ticket that rules out a three candidate strategy for FF and it puts Smith Jnr's base under threat. So he is pushing hard that he be named as the second candidate on the ticket at the expense of a candidate from the South. He is still threatening to run as an independent and that has the party in a spot of bother as it now looks like there will be too many FF gene pool candidates fighting over too few votes. A line up of Cahill & Ambrose as Official FF with Mattie, Carroll, Molloy and Smith running as Independent FF (in all but name) would shatter their vote.

digzy

touts wrote: »

Latest rumours are that Cllr Richie Molloy will be confirmed as the Renua General Election Candidate in the next few weeks.

jesus, he's more parties behind him than Callum Best!
greens, pds, independent....i'm sure he's been in one of the others too.

If that what renua are putting up as 'new politics' they're going nowhere..

digzy

Xenophile wrote: »

No credible politicians in FF or FG with the potential of getting a seat at the cabinet table.

Lowry will sit on the fence and vote for Kenny as Taoiseach, and maybe be rewarded for this.

Sinn Fein so far are non runners, their promises are so off the wall, we are hardly that gullible in Tipperary.

Alan Kelly is Tipperary's only hope for a seat in the cabinet position.

Healy and McGrath naysayers.

I never thought i'd agree with you on anything but.....there we go!
If hayes was gonna get a post at cabinet he'd have it by now. Kelly is our only hope of a cabinet seat. Unfortunately, you'll find people will stick to party lines and return the same glorified county councillors as previously..

touts

digzy wrote: »

jesus, he's more parties behind him than Callum Best!
greens, pds, independent....i'm sure he's been in one of the others too.

If that what renua are putting up as 'new politics' they're going nowhere..

Fianna Fail were in there also.

PDs went wallop after he joined. FF went wallop after he joined. He polled badly as an independent and had to join "Mattie's Team" to just hold his seat without reaching the quota. Renua haven't exactly been on an upward trajectory since he joined. He's an Irish political cross between "Unsinkable Molly Brown" and "Typhoid Mary".

Xenophile

touts wrote: »

Latest rumours are that Cllr Richie Molloy will be confirmed as the Renua General Election Candidate in the next few weeks.

With Election Posters costing 5 € each. And a good chance he will lose his deposit Renua should think twice about Richie as a candidate.

Paddico

I'm wondering if I should start a new thread of 'Who should I vote for'

While I know the candidates, I'm not aware of the work that any put in behind the scenes and obviously I want to vote for the man who will do best for Tipperary on every front. So to hear the pros and cons I will start with my question here which simple says .

Who do you think I should vote for?