Corona Virus and events

MY BAD · 11-11-2020 12:38pm

average_runner wrote: »

If the vaccine is real, we should be up and running by April, summer the latest. That's just what i think

April 2022... It won't roll out that quickly for the general public.

robinph · 11-11-2020 1:59pm

rovers_runner wrote: »

Is this a sign that sports administrators and organisers have been told on the quiet that nothing will happen before summer 2021 for larger field events?

Larger events like big city marathons take massive logistical planning so hopefully we might still see the smaller races < 1000 back in the spring.

Would hope Limerick/Connn/Cork hold out till Feb at least.

Nah.

Just they need to book stuff up X months in advance and we are rapidly approaching X+1 months in advance and they are not going to be able to get any local authorities to agree to anything until X-2 months... if they are lucky.

Simpler to wait until after the summer. Hope that other things are back up and running close to normal (like full football stadiums) then people are less likely to um and ahh about giving them permission for things in October. Nobody will be giving permission for things in April yet, but if your event was in April you need to be getting ready to sort stuff out in the next couple of months.

robinph · 11-11-2020 2:01pm

MY BAD wrote: »

April 2022... It won't roll out that quickly for the general public.

The thing that might help with availability though is that there will be multiple vaccines by that point (if any of them do work it's likely there will be several others as well).

average_runner · 11-11-2020 2:16pm

MY BAD wrote: »

April 2022... It won't roll out that quickly for the general public.

It doesn't need to roll out to all of the general public, just need to hit the specific groups.

Nursing homes and front line staff will hopefully get it before Xmas.
Then focus on over 70's, Over 60's and the vulnerable group.

Under 50's not a priority and can open up then.

rovers_runner · 11-11-2020 4:11pm

robinph wrote: »

The thing that might help with availability though is that there will be multiple vaccines by that point (if any of them do work it's likely there will be several others as well).

J&J only a week or two behind. They will go to market almost side by side so you can double the number that was announced this week.

Just a case of Govts having the cop on now to ensure they needy get sorted promptly and the rest of us can go about things as normal ASAP.

robinph · 11-11-2020 4:41pm

rovers_runner wrote: »

J&J only a week or two behind. They will go to market almost side by side so you can double the number that was announced this week.

Just a case of Govts having the cop on now to ensure they needy get sorted promptly and the rest of us can go about things as normal ASAP.

Th Pfizer one needing to be kept at -80c until a couple of hours before use is going to be a major stumbling block for it's widespread use. Will probably only get used for the first batch of healthcare staff, then once there is an alternative (assuming they all do about the same thing) if it doesn't need to be kept so cold will end up being the main one.

ger664 · 12-11-2020 1:13am

average_runner wrote: »

It doesn't need to roll out to all of the general public, just need to hit the specific groups.

Nursing homes and front line staff will hopefully get it before Xmas.
Then focus on over 70's, Over 60's and the vulnerable group.

Under 50's not a priority and can open up then.

But we need ~70% vaccinated/contracted within the population to get some form herd immunity so we can return to normal large scale events.

I work with a lot of GP Practices and the given the pressures/demands with the current roll out of the flu vaccine. They will need to receive a lot more support/funding to be able to roll out that quantity of vaccines in such a short time frame that allows normal life to resume next Autumn.

average_runner · 12-11-2020 2:37pm

ger664 wrote: »

But we need ~70% vaccinated/contracted within the population to get some form herd immunity so we can return to normal large scale events.

I work with a lot of GP Practices and the given the pressures/demands with the current roll out of the flu vaccine. They will need to receive a lot more support/funding to be able to roll out that quantity of vaccines in such a short time frame that allows normal life to resume next Autumn.

They were saying GP's won't be rolling this out.

I thought we only need the 70% at the main danger groups. But the under 50's don't seem to show the same effects of the virus and the death rates under 50 are around the same as the flu in Ireland currently?

robinph · 12-11-2020 4:15pm

average_runner wrote: »

They were saying GP's won't be rolling this out.

I thought we only need the 70% at the main danger groups. But the under 50's don't seem to show the same effects of the virus and the death rates under 50 are around the same as the flu in Ireland currently?

I don't think GP's will be technically able to roll it out, the -80c requirement is a huge issue for distribution. Really can't see how the Pfizer one will end up being the main vaccine used, unless it's the only one. The moment one which can be more easily distributed comes out that will go to the top of the list of what people will get given.

70% of the care homes staff and occupants, and then gradually work the way down through the risk groups. According to a list of what order they will do things in the UK, me being in a couple of riskier categories I'd still only be in batch 7/12 with general population being right at the bottom of the list at 12th. I'd be hopeful that we can be well on the way to mostly normal activities, with a bit of extra hand washing/ mask wearing/ social distancing where needed before it gets to me getting the vaccine though.

event · 12-11-2020 5:36pm

While the death rates arent bad for U50s, I still wouldnt want to catch it when you read some of the reports about athletes getting it and 6 months later still not being able to climb the stairs. The long term effects worry me

Stark · 12-11-2020 5:50pm

event wrote: »

While the death rates arent bad for U50s, I still wouldnt want to catch it when you read some of the reports about athletes getting it and 6 months later still not being able to climb the stairs. The long term effects worry me

True. Though I do look forward to being able to make my own decision on what level of risk I'm willing to accept without having lockdown forced upon me because of muppets having house parties and what not. Still won't go to crowded places etc. without being vaccinated myself but will be nice to be able to plan safer activities without fear of lockdown. I'll do the likes of IMRA races and smaller park runs but maybe not a race with 10s of thousands of people for example.

For example, the most socially distanced sport you can possibly imagine: orienteering isn't allowed in Level 3+. I look forward to not being subject to that level of nanny state interference.

average_runner · 12-11-2020 6:33pm

event wrote: »

While the death rates arent bad for U50s, I still wouldnt want to catch it when you read some of the reports about athletes getting it and 6 months later still not being able to climb the stairs. The long term effects worry me

But a bad flu can leave you with bad respiratory symptoms for 6 months.

ger664 · 13-11-2020 1:03am

average_runner wrote: »

They were saying GP's won't be rolling this out.
I thought we only need the 70% at the main danger groups. But the under 50's don't seem to show the same effects of the virus and the death rates under 50 are around the same as the flu in Ireland currently?

The 70% is across the population to give us herd immunity which prevents the spread of the disease and its eventual disappearance/eradication. This will take several years of vaccinations. We do not have the resources to roll out 3 to 4 million vaccines in a period of months.

average_runner · 13-11-2020 10:21am

ger664 wrote: »

The 70% is across the population to give us herd immunity which prevents the spread of the disease and its eventual disappearance/eradication. This will take several years of vaccinations. We do not have the resources to roll out 3 to 4 million vaccines in a period of months.

It won't disappear/eradication. Its very similar to the flu.
Alot of under 50 won't take the vaccine as the risks are unknown.
We will get a high % of over 60 on it, but when it comes to people not at risk, they won't take it. Would you take something not knowing all the side effects?

Personally I am not sure if I take it or not, need to do more reading but I am under 50 also so not a high risk.

Ceepo · 13-11-2020 10:45am

average_runner wrote: »

It won't disappear/eradication. Its very similar to the flu.
Alot of under 50 won't take the vaccine as the risks are unknown.
We will get a high % of over 60 on it, but when it comes to people not at risk, they won't take it. Would you take something not knowing all the side effects?

Personally I am not sure if I take it or not, need to do more reading but I am under 50 also so not a high risk.

I would agree with this 100%.

I am close to 50, but consider myself to be in good health, and im also a bit of a skeptic (ok a lot)

and would be very slow to get it.
Mrs C on the other hand wouldn't be at all skeptic, also said she dont think she will be getting it, she also said that her work colleague's pretty much said the same.

A lot if poeple are under the impression that a vaccine will hit market and "bang" we will be back to normal in a matter if weeks.
We also need to consider that, as of yet we don't know the efficiency of vaccine in terms of duration. While Pfizer are reporting 90% effective in killing the virus, we dont know if thats for a month, 6 months or lifetime effective.

Dont get me wrong I for one want to see things getting back to what we considered normal, I just dont see it happening any time soon unfortunately

Itziger · 13-11-2020 11:56am

Ceepo wrote: »

I would agree with this 100%.

I am close to 50, but consider myself to be in good health, and im also a bit of a skeptic (ok a lot) and would be very slow to get it.
Mrs C on the other hand wouldn't be at all skeptic, also said she dont think she will be getting it, she also said that her work colleague's pretty much said the same.

A lot if poeple are under the impression that a vaccine will hit market and "bang" we will be back to normal in a matter if weeks.
We also need to consider that, as of yet we don't know the efficiency of vaccine in terms of duration. While Pfizer are reporting 90% effective in killing the virus, we dont know if thats for a month, 6 months or lifetime effective.

Dont get me wrong I for one want to see things getting back to what we considered normal, I just dont see it happening any time soon unfortunately

So it looks like the vaccine or vaccines are pretty effective, and you want to return to normailty asap. Do you think we have a better chance of that happening if 20% of the popultaion take the vac, or if 80% do?

Yes, there are variables and questions we all need more info on as you highlight but the answer to my question seems kinda clear (to me!!)

Arsenium · 13-11-2020 11:57am

With events in Feb looking as though they are now being pulled, does anyone know if Mullingar / Bohermeen have any chance of going ahead? Unlikely I'd say?

robinph · 13-11-2020 12:14pm

In the UK the take up of flu vaccine tends to be around 70% in just the over 65 population, Ireland seems to only manage around 56% for the same group over the last few years.

Ceepo · 13-11-2020 12:27pm

Itziger wrote: »

So it looks like the vaccine or vaccines are pretty effective, and you want to return to normailty asap. Do you think we have a better chance of that happening if 20% of the popultaion take the vac, or if 80% do?

Yes, there are variables and questions we all need more info on as you highlight but the answer to my question seems kinda clear (to me!!)

I take your point. But for me there are to many uncertainties right now. Im sure this will change over the course of time
One of the question that no one can answer as of now. Is what if any are the long term effects?.
Will it be 1 dose, 1 with a booster, 1 every year, multiple every year?.
We don't have this information yet

While some "younger" people with no underlying conditions suffer some longer term issues after contracting the virus. The majority will have mild symptoms with a high percentage non symptomatic. I think this will deter a lot if people from getting the vaccine, especially if they have concerns around it. A lot will take their chances, and self isolate if they get it..
Certainly until some of these questions are answered.

Huzzah! · 13-11-2020 12:38pm

Ceepo wrote: »

I take your point. But for me there are to many uncertainties right now. Im sure this will change over the course of time
One of the question that no one can answer as of now. Is what if any are the long term effects?.
Will it be 1 dose, 1 with a booster, 1 every year, multiple every year?.
We don't have this information yet

While some "younger" people with no underlying conditions suffer some longer term issues after contracting the virus. The majority will have mild symptoms with a high percentage non symptomatic. I think this will deter a lot if people from getting the vaccine, especially if they have concerns around it. A lot will take their chances, and self isolate if they get it..
Certainly until some of these questions are answered.

A high percentage being asymptomatic surely negates the efficacy of self-isolation, no?

event · 13-11-2020 1:02pm

Everyone has been giving out on these forums since March about everything being locked down, we need to return to normality etc

Then a vaccine comes along and everyone will be "Oh I am not taking it. Let the older people take it. But me, no way, too many risks" and then be annoyed when things arent back to normal.

Id take a guess and say nearly everyone got the MMR vaccine as a kid in school. Stop reading social media about the "bad" vaccines.

Everyone asking about the side effects. Ever get an antibiotic? Next time have a look at the potential side effects. I assume you wont take them either, or a panadol or nurofen again

rovers_runner · 13-11-2020 1:04pm

Ceepo wrote: »

I would agree with this 100%.

I am close to 50, but consider myself to be in good health, and im also a bit of a skeptic (ok a lot) and would be very slow to get it.
Mrs C on the other hand wouldn't be at all skeptic, also said she dont think she will be getting it, she also said that her work colleague's pretty much said the same.

A lot if poeple are under the impression that a vaccine will hit market and "bang" we will be back to normal in a matter if weeks.
We also need to consider that, as of yet we don't know the efficiency of vaccine in terms of duration. While Pfizer are reporting 90% effective in killing the virus, we dont know if thats for a month, 6 months or lifetime effective.

Dont get me wrong I for one want to see things getting back to what we considered normal, I just dont see it happening any time soon unfortunately

I would be in the same boat with regards to that thinking, if it isn't going to be a risk to me or family then why get it.

There has to come a point though when we have played ball for long enough with regards to restrictions, and as there will be a vaccine available whether people take it up or not cannot stop a return to life as it was before Covid-19 happened.

I know Govts like the thought of having this control over us with little or no pushback, but it's going to come to a head very quickly once any vaccine is released.

average_runner · 13-11-2020 1:10pm

event wrote: »

Everyone has been giving out on these forums since March about everything being locked down, we need to return to normality etc

Then a vaccine comes along and everyone will be "Oh I am not taking it. Let the older people take it. But me, no way, too many risks" and then be annoyed when things arent back to normal.

Id take a guess and say nearly everyone got the MMR vaccine as a kid in school. Stop reading social media about the "bad" vaccines.

Everyone asking about the side effects. Ever get an antibiotic? Next time have a look at the potential side effects. I assume you wont take them either, or a panadol or nurofen again

You take the antibiotic because u have to. Same way you will take something when u have covid. But if you don't believe you are a risk with something, why risk adding something else to your body?

Lockdown was to save the at risk group and its doing its job. The at risk group needs the vaccine. Once they are covered, lockdown wont be needed

Ceepo · 13-11-2020 1:25pm

event wrote: »

Everyone has been giving out on these forums since March about everything being locked down, we need to return to normality etc

Then a vaccine comes along and everyone will be "Oh I am not taking it. Let the older people take it. But me, no way, too many risks" and then be annoyed when things arent back to normal.

Id take a guess and say nearly everyone got the MMR vaccine as a kid in school. Stop reading social media about the "bad" vaccines.

Everyone asking about the side effects. Ever get an antibiotic? Next time have a look at the potential side effects. I assume you wont take them either, or a panadol or nurofen again

Of course there can be side effects from even the most common medication. These side effects are know based on YEARS of trials and the % rate of side effects v's efficiency.

We are only months into this virus, is it a good thing that they are nearly a the point where they a vaccination is on the market, im sure it has to be positive. But unlike MMR it hasn't gone through the same scrutiny.

Not everyone gets their information from social media.

robinph · 13-11-2020 1:36pm

The testing and scrutiny is very similar to any other vaccine, just they have been doing the multiple stages in parallel with each other.
Like ramping up manufacturing before trials have even started, starting different stages of trials before the others have completed their processes, getting bulk orders for the vaccine before the trials had even started.

Doesn't mean the same checks are not being done, or if any problems are found that things won't get halted as per usual... just that more people are interested in the process now and are paying attention to each detail as it happens.

pc11 · 13-11-2020 3:41pm

If only people had the same wariness of putting things in their body when it came to booze, smoking, drugs, shtty food, sedentary lifestyle and so on, our hospitals would be empty. Same with driving or other everyday activities.

People's perception of risk is so bizarre and twisted.

There is a lot more damage done every year by simple things like ibuprofen than by vaccines, especially if you consider the benefit of vaccines.

Our parents and grandparents lived in terror of TB and polio. Have any of you ever seen TB or polio in Ireland? (even a doctor would very rarely see TB).

How quickly we forget. Vaccines have been TOO successful for their own good!

Ceepo · 13-11-2020 4:55pm

pc11 wrote: »

If only people had the same wariness of putting things in their body when it came to booze, smoking, drugs, shtty food, sedentary lifestyle and so on, our hospitals would be empty. Same with driving or other everyday activities.

People's perception of risk is so bizarre and twisted.

There is a lot more damage done every year by simple things like ibuprofen than by vaccines, especially if you consider the benefit of vaccines.

Our parents and grandparents lived in terror of TB and polio. Have any of you ever seen TB or polio in Ireland? (even a doctor would very rarely see TB).

How quickly we forget. Vaccines have been TOO successful for their own good!

Spoken like a true medic

And a someone who doesnt drink, smoke, take drugs, and eats a balance healthy diet, I agree..

Doesn't take away the right of people to ask questions though

..

As i say, give people the information and let them make an informed decision.

OOnegative · 14-11-2020 10:23am

Received an email from one of the bigger races(4,000 approx) that takes place here in The Hague during the week, they are more or less postponing a race scheduled to take place next May. Doesn’t give much hope of the CPC taking place in March so.

Lambay island · 14-11-2020 11:37am

OOnegative wrote: »

Received an email from one of the bigger races(4,000 approx) that takes place here in The Hague during the week, they are more or less postponing a race scheduled to take place next May. Doesn’t give much hope of the CPC taking place in March so.

Events 6 months out in doubt already is a pretty depressing thought.

Annie get your Run · 14-11-2020 2:51pm

I am very conflicted on the vaccine, every medication I take gives me bad side effects therefore I only take something if I absolutely have to however, I'm very nervous about getting Covid and having it develop into long covid. As far as I'm aware that's a risk for every single one of us (not sure how folks here can say they are not at risk?). Vaccines are good, I am absolutely not going to disagree with that but I will be one of those people that waits a little while to get it. I happy to stay away from large events and continue wearing a mask etc until I take the jump!

Corona Virus and events

Comments