Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, 6th October 2019

longshotvalue · 03-10-2019 9:44am

Said it before and ill say it again. Magical at 26 on betfair, is just jaw dropping. Same prep as Found except she a better horse. Will run on soft. If Enable isn't 100% (and also remember enable hast won around here), she is easily the most likely winner, even if we make Enable 1/3 in reality, that price about Magical is value. (She better run now, although it looks likely)

I'll be hilarious when Moore Picks her.

Sottsass, has beaten trees well (As much as i like Mohawk), on good ground.

Japan seems to have won a below par Juddmonte with Crystal Ocean not performing and the form has been shot to bits since.

Ghaiyath, has won a German Group 1

Waldgeist looks nailed on to run well here, and i think ill have a small few quid at 22 on betfair as well.

Looked a Enable Magical Waltgeist 123, to me. Going to hit that on 365 when its available on the day

Itziger · 03-10-2019 9:50am

aidankkk wrote: »

Said it before and ill say it again. Magical at 26 on betfair, is just jaw dropping. Same prep as Found except she a better horse. Will run on soft. If Enable isn't 100% (and also remember enable hast won around here), she is easily the most likely winner, even if we make Enable 1/3 in reality, that price about Magical is value. (She better run now, although it looks likely)

I'll be hilarious when Moore Picks her.

Sottsass, has beaten trees well (As much as i like Mohawk), on good ground.

Japan seems to have won a below par Juddmonte with Crystal Ocean not performing and the form has been shot to bits since.

Ghaiyath, has won a German Group 1

Waldgeist looks nailed on to run well here, and i think ill have a small few quid at 22 on betfair as well.

Looked a Enable Magical Waltgeist 123, to me. Going to hit that on 365 when its available on the day

Last year's Arc was at Longchamp. I hope Magical runs her race and it would be good enough to place. Would like to see her win it actually. Looks like a poor renewal though.

longshotvalue · 03-10-2019 9:55am

Itziger wrote: »

Last year's Arc was at Longchamp. I hope Magical runs her race and it would be good enough to place. Would like to see her win it actually. Looks like a poor renewal though.

.. Yeah im thinking Enable is actually value as well and could be shorter in this ARc, but i just see Magical as easily second bet, and if there is to be a surprise Waltgeist looks by far the most likely. Cant have the 2nd-3rd-4th in the betting at all. That said id love Japan to turn out to be a superstar, but he has to improve which isn't out of the question.

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 11:15am

Arc runners and (draw)

1. French King (5)
2. Waldgeist (3)
3. Ghaiyyath (12)
4. Kiseki (7)
5. Blast Onepiece (4)
6. Fierement (2)
7. Nagano Gold (11)
8. Enable (9)
9. Magical (8)
10. Japan (10)
11. Soft Light (6)
12. Sottsass (1)

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 1:52pm

45 Arcs at Longchamp, draw of the winner

Draw Wins
1 ...... 1
2 ...... 3
3 ...... 3
4 ...... 5
5 ...... 2
6 ...... 7
7 ...... 6
8 ...... 2
9 ...... 1
10 ..... 2
11 .....
12 ..... 1
13 .....
14 ..... 5
15 ..... 3
16 ..... 1
17 ..... 2
18 ..... 1

The good results from stalls 14 and 15 are, I assume, because they are the end stalls.
The stalls in France hold 14 runners, draw 14 is the outside of inner stall machine, stall 15 is on the inside of the outer stall machine.

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 1:56pm

Bet
Nagano Gold ... 114.85 .... €51.96 ... €5,915.84
Soft Light ....... 318.20......€67.00...€21,252.60
Stradivarius .........1.00 .....€25.00 .........€0.00

Lay
Enable ...............1.98.....€500.00........€490.00

BumperD · 03-10-2019 2:23pm

You’re brave laying Enable!

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 2:49pm

Or stupid.

supremenovice · 03-10-2019 8:12pm

I'm thinking the stars will align for Japan this weekend...the country, not the horse!
Considering the good record of staying types doing well in the Arc recently, I'm going to go each way on all three Japanese runners - Blast Onepiece(50/1), Fierement(40/1) and Kiseki(100/1). I think the Arc owes them one at this stage.
On a related note, Ill also be backing Japan(30/1) in the 4 x100m mens relay in the Athletics and Japan(-19) to beat Samoa.

Nihon ni kite (Come on Japan!)

tryfix · 05-10-2019 1:50am

I've stuck with my old pal Magical for the Arc and had an EW bet on Kiseki at huge odds because high quality stayers have placed in a few Arcs.

It looks like Gosden can walk on water so Enable will probably end up winning even if it's only by a nostril. Betting odds on in the Arc is not enticing. I've a soft spot for Magical who ran a very good trial race in the Irish Champion Stakes which is one of the best Arc Trials and she heads to the Arc with a lot of boxes ticked. I'm only really concerned about Enable and Japan as competition. Enable for obvious reasons and Japan because he's a horse who keeps finding more when asked. Ryan Moore too seems to be riding better than he was earlier in the season so his? selection of Japan as his ride is a big positive considering how closely matched Magical and Enable are.

Andrew00 · 05-10-2019 2:13am

Ryan doesn't pick who he rides.

Aidan picks who's on who. It's well known

Francie Barrett · 05-10-2019 2:20am

If you want the kiss of death, well so be it. I have placed a 50 euro bet on Magical at 25's on Betfair that I am laying off at for high single digit prices.

50 quid is a big bet for me these days, that is the strength of my conviction. Good luck all.

Always Tired · 05-10-2019 2:37am

Every big race this forum seems to come up with a trendy no hoper. Magical isn't winning this. O'Brien hasn't beat Gosden in many of the good races this season, I can't even think of one. Every time they had the top 2 in the betting it seemed to end up in a Frankie flying dismount. Even with donnacha being my preferred jockey out of him and ryan, this isn't Friday night at Dundalk. Magical wont be in the top 3.

I'll be on Enable to make history and be the high point of an insanely successful year for the Gosden/Dettori combo. if I was going to back anything else it would be Waldgeist but until Enable loses I'll stick with her.

RivetingRoger · 05-10-2019 9:41am

People backing magical to win are mad.....
What evidence have you that she can beat Enable??
Are you familiar with Einstein's definition of insanity??? Check that sh*t out....

Now, e/w, Magical is a huge price, but Enable wins
Forecast could be the bet

longshotvalue · 05-10-2019 11:14am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

People backing magical to win are mad.....
What evidence have you that she can beat Enable??
Are you familiar with Einstein's definition of insanity??? Check that sh*t out....

Now, e/w, Magical is a huge price, but Enable wins
Forecast could be the bet

Everything has its price. Magical is value if enable isn’t 100%.

The Tetrarch · 05-10-2019 11:17am

This is the outsider of the field at 100/1.

A few of you may have noticed my bet on Soft Light at 317/1.
He is the slowest horse in the race, is often out the back in his races as he does not have the pace to keep up, then improves his position near the finish.

Soft Light was supplemented for the Arc for Euro 120,000, the trainer saying the owner would like to see his colours in the race.
I was a bit suspicious of that comment. Although the owner is very wealthy, I doubt he would enter the horse to see it finish tailed off.

Soft Light's last four races were at 12f, and he was 2nd in three of those four races.
Two of the races were Group 2, and he was beaten a neck and 1/2 length (12 1/2f, "ran on inside final furlong, not reach winner").
His sire is Authorised, a sire of stayers who go on soft ground.
The ground at Longchamp is soft at present, and I wish it was heavy.

I registered on the France Galop website a long time back. It allows me read the French form, and more importantly view videos of all the races, and from start to finish.
I was very interested in Soft Light's first race, 1900 metres on heavy. He won by 3 lengths.
It was the third race on the card. The two previous races were also 1900 metres. Soft Light's time was slightly slower than the first two races.
The Racing Post shows he was 1st/12 i.e. first of 12 runners, but the detailed form is misleading as it shows him 1st of 4 runners (12 actually ran).

At 1:47 into the race Soft Light was 9th (?) about 7 lengths behind the leader. At 2:20 he passed the post the winner 3 lengths ahead. His jockey looked over his right shoulder, his left shoulder, his right shoulder again in the last 100 metres.
Yes, it was a low level maiden race at a provincial track, but it is worth watching.
It was unusual (to me) for such a young 2yo (he was born 22/04/16) make his first racecourse appearance in a 9 1/2f race on heavy. That suggests excess stamina.

If the Arc is run at a fast pace and the ground is soft, he might have a chance.
He might not have the pace to keep up, but he has stamina.

tryfix · 05-10-2019 12:08pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

People backing magical to win are mad.....
What evidence have you that she can beat Enable??
Are you familiar with Einstein's definition of insanity??? Check that sh*t out....

Now, e/w, Magical is a huge price, but Enable wins
Forecast could be the bet

It's a big race of the season and people like to have a bet in it to make the race fun.

Even if Magical hasn't improved by the 3/4L that she's usually behind Enable ( York was a comeback run ) it's quite possible that Enable herself will find trouble in running or suffer an injury in the race leaving the door open for another horse to win.

Magical is a cracking substitute if Enable has a bad day and she's been a big price for a horse that is very close on form to Enable. Magical came alive at the end of the last flat season, she's a much more rounded filly this year, she's not a summer ground horse and gets the cut in the ground in the Arc that transformed her at Ascot last year. She showed much better tactical speed at Leopardstown than she has shown all season, so it's not unreasonable to think that she's in peak form for a race that Coolmore have had as her main target all season.

If as some think Magical isn't all that good, then what's so attractive about taking the odds on on Enable who has basically been just 3/4L superior to her twice?

If people think Magical isn't all that good then it's fair to say that Coolmore have Ryan Moore on their best shot Japan which puts Japan up as a huge threat to Enable. People forget that Enable barely got home from Sea Of Class over course and distance last year. Then there's the lightly raced Ghaiyyath who has an OR of 127 and could be anything.

It's probable that Gosden will have Enable souped up for her swansong, but at odds on it's not an attractive bet.

The Tetrarch · 05-10-2019 12:58pm

Longchamp going today, Saturday
Terrain tr souple (3,8)

The Tetrarch · 05-10-2019 1:02pm

How does today's first race, Prix Dollar, compare with the times for that race on its Wiki page, 1974 to 2018?
30 race times were faster, 13 were slower in those 44 races
That tell me the ground is slow, and confirms the 3.8 official going (very soft).

Francie Barrett · 05-10-2019 2:32pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

People backing magical to win are mad.....
What evidence have you that she can beat Enable??
Are you familiar with Einstein's definition of insanity??? Check that sh*t out....

Now, e/w, Magical is a huge price, but Enable wins
Forecast could be the bet

Soft going changes everything.

Also, Aidan sending out Magical again means he thinks it can win. He has plenty of bullets back at Ballydoyle to fire, but yet he persists with Magical. It has a chance.

tryfix · 05-10-2019 5:54pm

The effect of the very soft ground on the times of today's Group races at Longchamp

12.30 G2 Prix Dollar 1m 2f ( slow by 7.56 )
13.35 G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein 1m ( slow by 6.50 )
15.25 G1 Prix Du Royalieu 1m 6f ( slow by 11.98 )
16.00 G2 Prix Chaudenay 1m 7f ( slow by 8.46 )
16.35 G1 Prix Du Cadran. 2m 4f ( slow by 23.83 )

3 races won by French horses, 2 won by UK horse.

There were NO WINNING FAVOURITES TODAY.

tryfix · 05-10-2019 11:44pm

A Saturday of intermittent showers and the promise of more rain overnight and into Sunday has left Longchamp officials expecting the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe will be run on no better than holding ground, though it will ride more like heavy.

With a 17-metre strip of fresh turf due to be opened up for Sunday's eight-race card, Frankie Dettori was taking a relaxed view of the potential impact on Enable's bid for history.

Dettori said on Saturday: "She copes with this ground. She won the King George and Breeders' Cup Turf on soft ground. We're also racing on a different track tomorrow and I don't think you can compare it to the track we're on today."

https://www.racingpost.com/news/longchamp-sunday/longchamp-set-to-be-extremely-testing-with-more-rain-on-the-way/402911

Frankie doesn't think the ground will be a problem for Enable. I think he's right, Enable goes very well on Soft ground and very soft ground will inconvenience half the field or more making her job up on the pace less complicated as the field gets strung out in the mud.

RivetingRoger · 06-10-2019 9:03am

Bog like conditions today they are saying. Enable Battash double backers, how we feel about that ?

hawaii501 · 06-10-2019 9:15am

Surely last years winner Mab's Cross is the bet at the prices. 10/1 should be an e/w bet to nothing.
Also, it was soft last year if i remember correctly too?

longshotvalue · 06-10-2019 9:20am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Bog like conditions today they are saying. Enable Battash double backers, how we feel about that ?

Anyone backing that double at those prices in 2 of the biggest luck involved races of the year want locking up . I hope they both win , but I’ll be letting them at the prices .

RivetingRoger · 06-10-2019 9:41am

aidankkk wrote: »

Anyone backing that double at those prices in 2 of the biggest luck involved races of the year want locking up . I hope they both win , but I’ll be letting them at the prices .

Lock me up! Throw away the key! Cos I am baalllsss ddeeeeepp

The Tetrarch · 06-10-2019 10:00am

Terrain tr souple (4,1) +

Google translate
Relevé of the 06.10.2019 at 09h27
FLAT / Grass: TR SOFT (4.1)
Precipitation since 24h: 3.5 mm

*** WEATHER FORECAST ***
Forecast for October 06, 2019
Temperature: 17 degrees, Wind: WEST
Cloudy weather
Precipitation: A FEW SMALL RAIN IN MORNING

State of the ground planned for the race (takes into account the possible watering)
TR SOFT
Position of the rice at the finish line: 0,0 m
Information not incurring the responsibility of FRANCE GALOP.

gazza1 · 06-10-2019 11:14am

Waldgeist to finish top 4

6/4 pp

Looks a solid bet to me

GL

Francie Barrett · 06-10-2019 11:24am

This is by far the softest ground that Enable will ever have run on.

FatRat · 06-10-2019 12:06pm

Waldgeist w/o Enable, 7/1 e/w. Skybet paying 4 places even on this market it seems.

FatRat · 06-10-2019 12:11pm

FatRat wrote: »

Waldgeist w/o Enable, 7/1 e/w. Skybet paying 4 places even on this market it seems.

Despite saying 4 places in the bet slip title, it now says 3 places for this.

Doogs27 · 06-10-2019 12:13pm

Very soft over here even in the food gardens area. Great atmosphere and the weather looks like its going to hold for a while. I hope......
Going to have a small e/w about kersecki with soumillion on board in the Arc.
Will oppose bataash with sesstilio jet.
Hoping for a big run out of jessies in the first.

masterK · 06-10-2019 12:22pm

8/1 e/w on Japan seems like a pretty nice bet to nothing for me.

zpehtsfd · 06-10-2019 12:25pm

I'm still in shock over those Dee Ex Bee tactics yesterday. That was one sure fire way to get the horse beat. Inexcusable.

Go Enable!!!

Andrew00 · 06-10-2019 2:52pm

So nervous Mon the queen

Doctors room ghost · 06-10-2019 3:08pm

Go on frankie

Andrew00 · 06-10-2019 3:11pm

Bad day for racing. Devastating

Dr. Bre · 06-10-2019 3:12pm

I am sick

Doctors room ghost · 06-10-2019 3:14pm

Dr. Bre wrote: »

I am sick

Me too

BumperD · 06-10-2019 3:15pm

Clean race, that ground was tough.

yaboya1 · 06-10-2019 3:15pm

Three of the first four came from a long way back. Did he make too much use of her? Nothing else that raced prominently was mapped.

TheMilkyPirate · 06-10-2019 3:16pm

Waldgeist wins the arc but ITV sh1t on about Enable for ten minutes instead of congratulating the winner

tryfix · 06-10-2019 3:16pm

Stamina wins the race.

I'm a bit sickened myself by how easily Magical folded.

Enable ran her race but she has been coming back to her two previous Arc fields at the end of both her previous Arc wins, both races where Waldgeist was closing at the end of 12f. The Soft ground let him use his stamina to catch her.

gazza1 · 06-10-2019 3:16pm

gazza1 wrote: »

Waldgeist to finish top 4

6/4 pp

Looks a solid bet to me

GL

Oh well at least its profit but obviously kicking myself now. Just didn't Enable would lose

jay1988 · 06-10-2019 3:19pm

Look to me like Frankie thought he had it won and eased off slightly in the final furlong and just couldn't get her back going when the winner went past.

I've seen him do the same on stradivarius a few times and always thought it might come back to bite him eventually.

Brock Turnpike · 06-10-2019 3:21pm

ITV coverage is absolutely sickening.

Doctors room ghost · 06-10-2019 3:23pm

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

ITV coverage is absolutely sickening.

They were selling a fairytale and can’t cope with it ending poorly.

Doctors room ghost · 06-10-2019 3:24pm

Didn’t even show unsaddling the winner or jockeys reaction.very poor

FatRat · 06-10-2019 3:26pm

jay1988 wrote: »

Look to me like Frankie thought he had it won and eased off slightly in the final furlong and jist couldnt get her back going when the winner went past.

Ive seen him do the same on stardivarius a few times and always thought it might come back to bite him eventually.

Lol

Waldgeist actually won with some amount in hand. Very impressive.

snickers · 06-10-2019 3:26pm

Boy am I glad I read this thread this morning thanks to everyone who were giving this as a solid each way shot 16/1 get in there .

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, 6th October 2019

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