Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, 6th October 2019

yaboya1 · 01-10-2019 1:12pm

Haven't a strong opinion on this, but Magical is 28-29 on the exchanges.That is just mental, especially considering Japan is no bigger than 6/1.

longshotvalue · 01-10-2019 1:13pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

Haven't a strong opinion on this, but Magical is 28-29 on the exchanges.That's just mental, especially considering Japan is no bigger than 6/1.

Now it makes sense. She's not going then. Must be going to Ascot instead

yaboya1 · 01-10-2019 1:14pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Now it makes sense. She's not going then. Must be going to Ascot instead

It's the only logical explanation.

longshotvalue · 01-10-2019 1:19pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

It's the only logical explanation.

Only 2 ways to take that if its true, She cant beat Enable (unlikely as they never shirk away from a challange), or they have something better at home.

Slattsy · 01-10-2019 1:36pm

yaboya1 wrote: »

Haven't a strong opinion on this, but Magical is 28-29 on the exchanges.That is just mental, especially considering Japan is no bigger than 6/1.

Japan tearing up the gallops!!

BumperD · 01-10-2019 1:37pm

Am I missing something but magical has been beaten 3 times by enable so logic suggests sidestep another beating

Itziger · 01-10-2019 1:54pm

BumperD wrote: »

Am I missing something but magical has been beaten 3 times by enable so logic suggests sidestep another beating

Two of those were less than a length. Poor draw for Enable and there goes the length!!

The Tetrarch · 01-10-2019 2:34pm

Four taken out today

Arc runners

1. French King
2. Waldgeist
3. Ghaiyyath
4. Kiseki
5. Blast Onepiece
6. Fierement
7. Nagano Gold
8. Enable
9. Magical
10. Japan
11. Anthony Van Dyck
12. Sottsass

BumperD · 01-10-2019 3:50pm

Itziger wrote: »

Two of those were less than a length. Poor draw for Enable and there goes the length!!

I think she’s just superior and it won’t matter so longer as she is 100% fit and doesn’t get interference in running. I wouldn’t bet against her

yaboya1 · 01-10-2019 4:06pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Only 2 ways to take that if its true, She cant beat Enable (unlikely as they never shirk away from a challange), or they have something better at home.

Unlikely on what we've seen to date.
Wouldn't touch O'Brien's 3yos in the Arc either. Woeful record!

IAMAMORON · 01-10-2019 4:07pm

The fact that there is only 12 entries at the 5 day declarations is telling.

Enable's to lose.

Slattsy · 02-10-2019 8:45am

Anyone know what the ground is like currently? Not on Twitter or the like and can't find it on the line inter netgoogle anywhere.

The Tetrarch · 02-10-2019 11:58am

Slattsy wrote: »

Anyone know what the ground is like currently? Not on Twitter or the like and can't find it on the line inter netgoogle anywhere.

Follow the link in post #24 earlier in this thread.

The Tetrarch · 02-10-2019 12:04pm

Following the link in post # 24

long term forecast Time Forecast Temp. Precipitation
Thursday 00:00–06:00 Fair. 6° 0 mm
06:00–12:00 Partly cloudy. 4° 0 mm
12:00–18:00 Partly cloudy. 12° 0 mm
18:00–00:00 Partly cloudy. 13° 0 mm
Friday 00:00–06:00 Rain. 11° 2.0 mm
06:00–12:00 Rain showers. 13° 1.2 mm
12:00–18:00 Rain showers. 16° 1.4 mm
18:00–00:00 Cloudy. 15° 0 mm
Saturday 00:00–06:00 Cloudy. 14° 0 mm
08:00–14:00 Partly cloudy. 11° 0 mm
14:00–20:00 Clear sky. 15° 0 mm
20:00–02:00 Fair. 11° 0 mm
Sunday 02:00–08:00 Light rain. 8° 0.6 mm
08:00–14:00 Heavy rain showers. 9° 8.8 mm
14:00–20:00 Rain showers. 14° 2.4 mm
20:00–02:00 Clear sky. 11° 0 mm

Slattsy · 02-10-2019 12:26pm

Sunday doesnt look good.

IAMAMORON · 02-10-2019 12:43pm

At this time of year you are also fighting the seasons. Nights are longer and temperatures drop. This affects soil temperatures and how receptive they are to any moisture.

I would expect standard October soft ground for Sunday, unless it is splitting the stones over there for the next 4 days there is not a chance the ground will turn up without plenty of give. They certainly won't be thinking about watering anyway.

The Tetrarch · 02-10-2019 2:00pm

Going suitability on the probable soft going (my opinion).
I judge this as much on the ground on which the trainer has chosen to run his horse in the past as much as the winning runs of the horse.
The clay soil of Longchamp can get very heavy.
The going will depend greatly on the rain forecast for Sunday morning arriving.

With the small field this year the draw (tomorrow morning) loses its significance.

1. French King – won his last four races, all on good. Has run on soft 5 of previous 10 races. Was 2nd in a 12f Listed race on soft.
2. Waldgeist – 8 wins from 20 starts, 2 wins on soft, 5th of 12 on heavy.
3. Ghaiyyath – 5 wins (3 on good, 2 on good/soft). In 7 races has not run on soft or slower.
4. Kiseki – 2 wins, on soft and on firm. His 2017 Japanese St Leger (Kikuka-sho) was on soft. The time was slow 13.34s/f.
5. Blast Onepiece – all his 8 runs were on firm
6. Fierement – 7 runs, all on firm. Won at 15f and at 16f. Won the 2018 Japanese St Leger (Kikuka-sho) over 14.91f in 186.1s (12.48s/f); Logician's St Leger win gd/fm 14.52f in 180.27s (12.41s/f).
7. Nagano Gold – 18 runs: gd/fm (1); good (10); st (1); soft (4); very soft (1); heavy (1). 1 win on heavy, 1 on st, 4 on good.
8. Enable – she has run only once on soft (and won obv), 3 on good/soft.
9. Magical – 19 runs: 5 gd/fm, 5 good, 3 gd/y, 4 soft, 1 sf/hvy, 1 heavy. She has won at 12f on soft.
10. Japan – 8 runs. Won a 7f maiden on heavy, won two 12f on good/soft.
11. Soft Light (supplemented?) trained by J-C Rouget (same trainer as Sottsass) so might be a pacemaker.
Has 1 win from 7 and it was on heavy (and four 2nds: gd (2); gd/sf; soft). Soft Light's sire, dam, damsire produce horses that are useful on soft imo.
12. Sottsass – has twice won on soft, twice on good. The stud fee of sire, Siyouni, has rsen from 7k to 100k in eight years.
A big worry is the winning record of Siyouni’s offspring: 0% heavy; 3% soft; 11% good/soft; 31% good; 29% good/firm; 25% firm (from small sample size). Another worry is Siyouni’s winners are highest in the 7-9f category. What might help Sottsass is his dam is by Galileo.
Sotsass was going to be my bet if the ground was good or faster. He won the Prix du Jockey Club in a time 2:02.90, an incredible 5.10 seconds below standard.
Anthony Van Dyck is not in the field so must have been withdrawn late.

Not favoured: French King; Waldgeist; Ghaiyyath; Blast Onepiece; Fierement; Sottsass
Might tolerate: Kiseki; Nagano Gold; Enable
Soft ground suits: Japan; Magical; Soft Light

BumperD · 02-10-2019 7:18pm

Soft light supplement explanation ie not pacemaker, added to give owner a runner, I wish I had 120k spare cash lying about idle

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/exceptional-sottsass-bang-on-course/172244

Slattsy · 02-10-2019 7:54pm

BumperD wrote: »

Soft light supplement explanation ie not pacemaker, added to give owner a runner, I wish I had 120k spare cash lying about idle

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/exceptional-sottsass-bang-on-course/172244

I bet ya do!

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 9:14am

Interesting details about the history of the race.
13 horses failed in the race before winning, 17 failed to win after winning.
http://www.france-galop.com/en/content/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-times-decider

longshotvalue · 03-10-2019 9:44am

Said it before and ill say it again. Magical at 26 on betfair, is just jaw dropping. Same prep as Found except she a better horse. Will run on soft. If Enable isn't 100% (and also remember enable hast won around here), she is easily the most likely winner, even if we make Enable 1/3 in reality, that price about Magical is value. (She better run now, although it looks likely)

I'll be hilarious when Moore Picks her.

Sottsass, has beaten trees well (As much as i like Mohawk), on good ground.

Japan seems to have won a below par Juddmonte with Crystal Ocean not performing and the form has been shot to bits since.

Ghaiyath, has won a German Group 1

Waldgeist looks nailed on to run well here, and i think ill have a small few quid at 22 on betfair as well.

Looked a Enable Magical Waltgeist 123, to me. Going to hit that on 365 when its available on the day

Itziger · 03-10-2019 9:50am

aidankkk wrote: »

Said it before and ill say it again. Magical at 26 on betfair, is just jaw dropping. Same prep as Found except she a better horse. Will run on soft. If Enable isn't 100% (and also remember enable hast won around here), she is easily the most likely winner, even if we make Enable 1/3 in reality, that price about Magical is value. (She better run now, although it looks likely)

I'll be hilarious when Moore Picks her.

Sottsass, has beaten trees well (As much as i like Mohawk), on good ground.

Japan seems to have won a below par Juddmonte with Crystal Ocean not performing and the form has been shot to bits since.

Ghaiyath, has won a German Group 1

Waldgeist looks nailed on to run well here, and i think ill have a small few quid at 22 on betfair as well.

Looked a Enable Magical Waltgeist 123, to me. Going to hit that on 365 when its available on the day

Last year's Arc was at Longchamp. I hope Magical runs her race and it would be good enough to place. Would like to see her win it actually. Looks like a poor renewal though.

longshotvalue · 03-10-2019 9:55am

Itziger wrote: »

Last year's Arc was at Longchamp. I hope Magical runs her race and it would be good enough to place. Would like to see her win it actually. Looks like a poor renewal though.

.. Yeah im thinking Enable is actually value as well and could be shorter in this ARc, but i just see Magical as easily second bet, and if there is to be a surprise Waltgeist looks by far the most likely. Cant have the 2nd-3rd-4th in the betting at all. That said id love Japan to turn out to be a superstar, but he has to improve which isn't out of the question.

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 11:15am

Arc runners and (draw)

1. French King (5)
2. Waldgeist (3)
3. Ghaiyyath (12)
4. Kiseki (7)
5. Blast Onepiece (4)
6. Fierement (2)
7. Nagano Gold (11)
8. Enable (9)
9. Magical (8)
10. Japan (10)
11. Soft Light (6)
12. Sottsass (1)

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 1:52pm

45 Arcs at Longchamp, draw of the winner

Draw Wins
1 ...... 1
2 ...... 3
3 ...... 3
4 ...... 5
5 ...... 2
6 ...... 7
7 ...... 6
8 ...... 2
9 ...... 1
10 ..... 2
11 .....
12 ..... 1
13 .....
14 ..... 5
15 ..... 3
16 ..... 1
17 ..... 2
18 ..... 1

The good results from stalls 14 and 15 are, I assume, because they are the end stalls.
The stalls in France hold 14 runners, draw 14 is the outside of inner stall machine, stall 15 is on the inside of the outer stall machine.

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 1:56pm

Bet
Nagano Gold ... 114.85 .... €51.96 ... €5,915.84
Soft Light ....... 318.20......€67.00...€21,252.60
Stradivarius .........1.00 .....€25.00 .........€0.00

Lay
Enable ...............1.98.....€500.00........€490.00

BumperD · 03-10-2019 2:23pm

You’re brave laying Enable!

The Tetrarch · 03-10-2019 2:49pm

Or stupid.

supremenovice · 03-10-2019 8:12pm

I'm thinking the stars will align for Japan this weekend...the country, not the horse!
Considering the good record of staying types doing well in the Arc recently, I'm going to go each way on all three Japanese runners - Blast Onepiece(50/1), Fierement(40/1) and Kiseki(100/1). I think the Arc owes them one at this stage.
On a related note, Ill also be backing Japan(30/1) in the 4 x100m mens relay in the Athletics and Japan(-19) to beat Samoa.

Nihon ni kite (Come on Japan!)

tryfix · 05-10-2019 1:50am

I've stuck with my old pal Magical for the Arc and had an EW bet on Kiseki at huge odds because high quality stayers have placed in a few Arcs.

It looks like Gosden can walk on water so Enable will probably end up winning even if it's only by a nostril. Betting odds on in the Arc is not enticing. I've a soft spot for Magical who ran a very good trial race in the Irish Champion Stakes which is one of the best Arc Trials and she heads to the Arc with a lot of boxes ticked. I'm only really concerned about Enable and Japan as competition. Enable for obvious reasons and Japan because he's a horse who keeps finding more when asked. Ryan Moore too seems to be riding better than he was earlier in the season so his? selection of Japan as his ride is a big positive considering how closely matched Magical and Enable are.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, 6th October 2019

Comments