Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, 6th October 2019

The Tetrarch

The big race is in about two weeks.
At this stage there are 91 entries listed on the Racing Post.
I have not picked a bet to win as I found to my cost in the past that the draw and the going are as important as the horse.

My bets so far: Lay Enable 500.00 at 1.98; Back Stradivarius 25.00 at 310.
The owner says Stradivarius will not run against Enable.
I think Enable at odds on is poor value due to the uncertainty of the draw and ground.

akelly02

Backing a horse you know definately isnt running.......ok

The Tetrarch

Yeah, but what a price.
Seriously, it is a bet that Enable won't run.
She only ran three times in 2018 and three in 2019.

IAMAMORON

I am not backing anything until I see the draw and the ground.

It could piss rain for the next 2 weeks and Longchamp will turn up like a bog, it often has before. The draw is massive at Longchamp. If you are in a bad position you can end up having to run an extra 100 yards, that makes a difference if the ground turns up soft.

I also haven't really been following French racing all that much this year, you can be sure they will have a few chances as well, it is one of their big season targets.

If anyone is backing Enable I would advise them to open an account with the Paris Mutual PMU, the French are full of pride and only like backing their own horses ( I am massively generalising here but you know what I mean) , my point is that the best price you will get about Enable is with the PMU.

I have attached a link, it is actually a really good website with loads of info about French racing. I am definitely going to head over there for a few days before Christmas and get stoned drunk on bottles of cheap Bordeaux wine and scoff loads of coq au vin and snails and whatever other seasonal shight they are eating. I might even back a few winners as well.

http://horseraces.pmu.fr/

The Tetrarch

I talk about the Arc draw and the going a fair bit.
This is a summary showing how important the draw is on quick going.
If the ground is slow it becomes a slogging contest and the draw is of little importance.

I very much like draw 2 on fast ground. For some reason draw 1 on the rail is not as good (luck).
Draw 1 finished in the first four 5 times in the 9 fastest races (same as draw 2 in those 9 races).
Where did draw 2 finish in the fastest times (in descending order)?
2011 - 1st Danedream
1997 - 1st Peintre Celebre
2004 - 16th Prospect Park, 2nd briefly 2f out, weakened, finished 16th
2000 - 3rd Volvereta 3yo filly. always prominent, 3rd straight, hard ridden to challenge on inside over 1f out, no extra final furlong
2014 - 14th Gold Ship (JPN) held up in last [ridden by Norihiro Yokoyama. You can't throw away your good draw]


Average draw position of winner on different going
Time Mins:Secs Races Avg Draw
V Fast under 2:26.2 5 3.8
Fast 2:26.2 to 2:28.0 9 6.4
Medium 2:28.0 to 2:32.0 15 9.2
Slow over 2:32.0 17 10.4

RivetingRoger

Magical is 6/1 w/o Enable
Thinking of doubling it with Battash in the Abby

tryfix

It is a bit early to be trying to make full sense of the race.

I thought Star Catcher had shown herself to be the worthiest 3yo filly with her performances this year. It doesn't look like she will run, but you never know with Gosden.

I wasn't taken in by the Sottsass hype earlier in the season and his Niel win was both promising and disturbing in equal amounts. He flashed home from a horrible position showing the kind of turn of foot that wins big races. Worryingly he found trouble in running in a small field and horses that find trouble that easily are a bad bet.

Japan has improved from race to race and showed that he's got big race credentials by improving again to land the Juddmonte. He's one that deserves respect. O'Brien's record with 3yo runners in the Arc is abysmal, but Japan hasn't had a very busy year and is probably immune from the O'Brien 3yo curse. A very solid place prospect.

Enable has what it takes, is probably still in great form and it's hard not to see her in the first 2.

Magical has shown that she's close to Enable on ability. She's been freshened up for an Autumn campaign and has plenty of potential to improve 5lbs on her early season form. 2nd only to Enable in the probable winner stakes.

Waldgeist is in a good place and should go close, he looks to have improved this year.

Closer to the final decs when we know the race conditions, then a good outsider will emerge.

I'm happy to stick with Magical, she owes me nothing after recouping earlier losses in the Irish Champion Stakes. That'll do the job for me.

Andrew00

Magical freshened up for an Autumn campaign? She's been on the go since April.

SonOfGoat

I've been backing enable now for sometime. Every time I get a decent win I throw a few bob win on the horse. I thought last years race was much much more competitive. I'd go as far to say I haven't felt as strong about a winner of the arc in years. It's one of those things where you're looking for something that can put it to it but I honestly can't find it. It was a close finish last year, I feel, and hope the win will be a lot easier this year.

tryfix

Andrew00 wrote: »

Magical freshened up for an Autumn campaign? She's been on the go since April.

It's a standard French way to train a 3yo Arc horse. Get them out in the Spring, compete in the Classic Trials and Classics and put them away at the end of June. Then bring them back in the Autumn and build towards the big one.

Magical is 4 and more seasoned than she was last year. She had a few penalty kicks in Ireland before running 2 respectable 2nds in the 10f G1 races in Royal Ascot and in the Eclipse on the 6th of July. The intention had been to miss both those 10f races but she was the best horse in the yard and in good form so she took them in.

They then rested her for an Autumn campaign ( she has been their Arc horse all year) instead of taking in the King George a race she was nailed on to earn prize money in. She started back after a 47 day break on the 22nd Aug where Enable put her in her place and was then cherry ripe for the Irish Champion Stakes which was her stepping stone to the Arc.

She has been perfectly prepared for the Arc, it's up to her to run her race and she's never been far off the brilliant Enable so she's ready to give a 123 OR run based on regular form ( +3lbs = 126lbs colts performance in the Arc ). That's good enough to win many Arcs and if she improves a few lbs this Autumn then she's a serious win prospect even against the mighty Enable.

Has she improved this Autumn? O'Brien trained Found to find 5lbs in her Arc win so it's quite possible that Magical will find a few lbs improvement too.

The Tetrarch

IAMAMORON wrote: »

http://horseraces.pmu.fr/

I love the photo on the results page.

tryfix

http://horseraces.pmu.fr/news/predicturf-vote-for-the-arc

Last year's finish. Waldgeist ( beaten 1 3/4L ) was coming home well there and is a better horse this year. It's hard to believe that Capri ( the grey head in 5th beaten 3 1/4L ) got so close last year. Salouen ( beaten 3 3/4L ) in 6th gives a good measure of the form of the race.

Magical starting at 40/1 was beaten 5 1/4L in 10th which was a then career high 113 RPR. Just 13 days later Magical started as a 5/1 chance in the 12f G1 Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot winning in a new career high RPR of 119. 14 days after that win she ran Enable to 3/4L in the Breeders Cup Turf with the 3rd 9L behind, a new career high of 123 RPR.

I think that Ryan Moore faces a real dilemma. O'Brien's 3yo colt Japan has been improving at a rate of knots all season to a career high of 126 RPR for his win in the Juddmonte. He looked like there was more improvement to come over 12f as he was getting more on top as his stamina kicked in at the end of the 10 1/2f Juddmonte. He's had a 54 day break so he's going to be fresh enough to do himself justice in the Arc.


Decisions decisions. He's 6/1 best odds and she's 16/1. If he ends up on the filly her price will collapse.

EDIT:

Paddy Power are 13/2 Japan, 8 /1 Magical.

William Hill are 6/1, 16/1 Magical.

Ladbrokes are 5/1 Japan, 10/1 Magical.

The Tetrarch

It is easy to forget how narrowly Enable won the Arc in 2018.
People only remember she is a two time winner going for her third win.
Enable won at two different courses.
In 2018 at Longchamp she was ideally drawn in 6 (7 horses drawn 6 won the race in my 45 years draw records).
The 2nd, Sea Of Class was drawn 15, the 3rd Cloth Of Stars drawn favourably in 1, the 4th Waldgeist drawn 13.

The in running comments are interesting, showing how the draw dictates eartly position
1st: "In touch, tracked leaders going well 2f out"
2nd: "Held up in rear, headway from 2 1/2f out, ridden 2f out, not clear run and switched 1 1/2f out"

tryfix

Ghaiyyath ( Dubawi X Nightime ( Galileo ) ) is Godolphin's leading light and TOP RATED ON RPR figures. His form comes under the spotlight today at 4.10 in Cologne when Donjah who he beat by 14L in a German Gp1 runs in another German Gp 1 against the likely favourite Best Solution. German Derby winner Laccario who was beaten over 18L in that Ghaiyyath race also runs in today's race.

His form brings to mind Sea The Moon a German monster horse who was already to go off favourite in the Arc after he too destroyed a German Derby field by 11L. Sea The Moon failed to reproduce his German Derby form when 2nd in his next race and never ran again.

Ghaiyyath's a lightly raced, beautifully bred, lovely beast who was very highly rated by Godolphin when he started fav for the 10 1/2f Prix Ganay where he was beaten 4 1/2L by a rampant Waldgeist. That 14L win of Ghaiyyath's was probably a tactical triumph rather than a true reflection of his worth. He's a tasty outsider at best priced 12/1 with Paddy Power, a price that could change rapidly after today's German race.

Waldgeist beat Study Of Man 4 1/2L in the Ganay, the same distance that Study Of Man was beaten by Enable in last year's Arc, a form line which suggest that Waldgeist's improvement this year puts him level with Enable's 2018 Arc Win. Waldgeist is 12/1 with Paddy Power and a best priced 16/1 with William Hill. Study Of Man is 25/1.

Japanese raider Fierement is a very lightly raced Deep Impact Colt who has a RPR of 123 for a 2mile win in Japan. He could be anything, his existing 123 RPR puts him on heels of the best in the race with plenty of potential to improve on that 123 RPR. He's best priced @ 40/1 with Bet 365 and Paddy Power also have him at 40/1. Best big outsider by a mile.

tryfix

tryfix wrote: »

Ghaiyyath ( Dubawi X Nightime ( Galileo ) ) is Godolphin's leading light and TOP RATED ON RPR figures. His form comes under the spotlight today at 4.10 in Cologne when Donjah who he beat by 14L in a German Gp1 runs in another German Gp 1 against the likely favourite Best Solution. German Derby winner Laccario who was beaten over 18L in that Ghaiyyath race also runs in today's race.

His form brings to mind Sea The Moon a German monster horse who was already to go off favourite in the Arc after he too destroyed a German Derby field by 11L. Sea The Moon failed to reproduce his German Derby form when 2nd in his next race and never ran again.

Ghaiyyath's a lightly raced, beautifully bred, lovely beast who was very highly rated by Godolphin when he started fav for the 10 1/2f Prix Ganay where he was beaten 4 1/2L by a rampant Waldgeist. That 14L win of Ghaiyyath's was probably a tactical triumph rather than a true reflection of his worth. He's a tasty outsider at best priced 12/1 with Paddy Power, a price that could change rapidly after today's German race.

Waldgeist beat Study Of Man 4 1/2L in the Ganay, the same distance that Study Of Man was beaten by Enable in last year's Arc, a form line which suggest that Waldgeist's improvement this year puts him level with Enable's 2018 Arc Win. Waldgeist is 12/1 with Paddy Power and a best priced 16/1 with William Hill. Study Of Man is 25/1.

Japanese raider Fierement is a very lightly raced Deep Impact Colt who has a RPR of 123 for a 2mile win in Japan. He could be anything, his existing 123 RPR puts him on heels of the best in the race with plenty of potential to improve on that 123 RPR. He's best priced @ 40/1 with Bet 365 and Paddy Power also have him at 40/1. Best big outsider by a mile.

Today at Cologne Donjah franks the form of Ghaiyyath's 14L win of the Grosser Preis Von Baden. Donjah finished a 3L 3rd today behind Roger Charlton's Aspetar. Aspetar is an improving 4yo gelding by Al-Kazeem who has a career best RPR 117. Ghaiyyath has a theoretical 11L = 17Lb advantage over Aspetar which gives Ghaiyyath a potential 134 RPR which leans towards validating Ghaiyyath's own 128 RPR rating for that earlier 14L win over Donjah.

Loccario was a non-runner and Best Solution was beaten 13L which confirms his recent poor run of form.

lemush

Was a Group 1 in name only I think, Charlton horse improving no doubt and will make a better 5yo if kept in training.

Doogs27

Has anyone gone over for this in the last few years? Any travel advice for getting to the course on the day of? Staying in the 17th arr.

Itziger

Doogs27 wrote: »

Has anyone gone over for this in the last few years? Any travel advice for getting to the course on the day of? Staying in the 17th arr.

Been a few years I'm afraid but if you're in the 17th you're close enough. There's a shuttle bus from Porte Maillot I believe.
https://www.parislongchamp.com/fr/infos-pratiques

longshotvalue

Magical beats Japan, all day every day. So does Kew Gardens .

BumperD

lemush wrote: »

Was a Group 1 in name only I think, Charlton horse improving no doubt and will make a better 5yo if kept in training.

I put him up last season to follow

Of course I didn’t back him yesterday

Agreed, weak race ( prize money very poor for G1) but he will be better at 5

tryfix

Arc betting (general):

8-11 Enable
6 Japan, Sottsass
10 Magical
12 Ghaiyyath, Waldgeist
25 Fierement
33 Anthony Van Dyck, Blast Onepiece
50 French King, Mehdaayih, Musis Amica, Nagano Gold
66 Kiseki
100 Matchwinner, Silverwave



16 left in.

Enable @ 8-11 will surely be a better price on the day.

Her race record of 1/3111111/111-111 is pretty mind boggling with her having won 10 G1s on the trot starting with the Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks, King George, Yorkshire Oaks, Arc De Triomphe, Yorkshire Oaks, Arc De Triomphe, Breeders Cup, Coral Eclipse, King George, Yorkshire Oaks.

She wasn't impressive last year but she didn't have much of a prep, just 2 races. If she doesn't win the prices on the rest of the field are a gift @ 6/1 the field.

Also, a factor to consider. Will this week's Hurricane in the Atlantic dump tons of water on the track? It's a long way from the West Of Ireland to Paris so it's probably unlikely.

longshotvalue

Anthony Van Dyck could be the value there. Im not that impressed with Japan, . So for me is Enable, Magical, Anthony, Waltgeist. to make up the top 3

The Tetrarch

My pre-race analysis begins now.
I may need analysis post race. :pac:

The Tetrarch

tryfix wrote: »

Also, a factor to consider. Will this week's Hurricane in the Atlantic dump tons of water on the track? It's a long way from the West Of Ireland to Paris so it's probably unlikely.

"The ground at PARIS-LONGCHAMP is officially SOFT (3.5) (30th September, 2019)"
https://www.irbracing.com/urgent.asp?id=711

The Tetrarch

Did not win two Group races in 2019 (exclude)
Blast Onepiece; Fierement; Kiseki; Matchwinner; Nagano Gold; Silverwave; Deirdre; Musis Amica; Anthony Van Dyck; Mehdaayih

Ran in previous Arc and did not win (exclude)
Silverwave; Waldgeist; Magical

The contenders
French King; Ghaiyyath; Enable; Japan; Sottsass

Enable is a 5yo, and 5yo+s have not won often, probably because good colts are rushed off to stud at the end of their 3yo or 4yo careers.
Geldings are not allowed enter, so no 5yo+ competition from geldings.

Females who failed as 5yo+:
Pirika, Haya landa (2013); La Boum (2009); Pride (2nd 2006); Pride, Samando (2005); Borgia (1999, backed her ); Only Royale (1994); Triptych (1988); Triptych (1987); Badinage (1985); All Along, Margello (1984); Stanerra (1983); Trillion (1979); Infra Green, Vivi (1977); Allez France, Dahlia (1975); La Bijute (1970); Park Top (1969); Damaka (1953); Esmeralda, Guirlande (1944);
I have not lists before 1940.

French King and Ghaiyyath had Group wins in Germany, probably not very strong races.

Enable has to make history, become the first three time winner, and the second filly since Corrida in 1937 to win as a 5yo.

This looks a weak Arc.

tryfix

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Did not win two Group races in 2019 (exclude)
Blast Onepiece; Fierement; Kiseki; Matchwinner; Nagano Gold; Silverwave; Deirdre; Musis Amica; Anthony Van Dyck; Mehdaayih

Ran in previous Arc and did not win (exclude)
Silverwave; Waldgeist; Magical

The contenders
French King; Ghaiyyath; Enable; Japan; Sottsass

Enable is a 5yo, and 5yo+s have not won often, probably because good colts are rushed off to stud at the end of their 3yo or 4yo careers.
Geldings are not allowed enter, so no 5yo+ competition from geldings.

Females who failed as 5yo+:
Pirika, Haya landa (2013); La Boum (2009); Pride (2nd 2006); Pride, Samando (2005); Borgia (1999, backed her ); Only Royale (1994); Triptych (1988); Triptych (1987); Badinage (1985); All Along, Margello (1984); Stanerra (1983); Trillion (1979); Infra Green, Vivi (1977); Allez France, Dahlia (1975); La Bijute (1970); Park Top (1969); Damaka (1953); Esmeralda, Guirlande (1944);
I have not lists before 1940.

French King and Ghaiyyath had Group wins in Germany, probably not very strong races.

Enable has to make history, become the first three time winner, and the second filly since Corrida in 1937 to win as a 5yo.

This looks a weak Arc.

Found won as a 4yo in 2016, as a 3yo she was a tenderly ridden 5L 9th in the 2015 Arc after receiving a bump 2f out. She has a similar profile to Magical.


If the Ground is Soft now it could be Heavy by Sunday. Which horses are going to thrive on Soft or Heavy ground? Enable powers through it, but it could also transform the chances of some outsider by a Stone as the race becomes about Stamina and mud flying.

Enable had her best ever run on Soft Ground in the 2016 Arc at Chantilly.

Japan won on Heavy as a 2yo and won twice on Good to Soft this year including over 12f at Longchamp. Don't think he'd improve for the Soft but the emphasis on Stamina would help him.

Sottsass has plenty of Soft ground winning form but he's a stamina suspect colt with a top ROR of 120 which was achieved on Good ground.

Ghaiyyath's best form has been on Good ground, he's lightly raced so his less than stellar GS form wasn't necessarily a ground thing. Hard to know, but I'd rather him on genuine Good ground.

Magical handles all ground types and is at her best with an ease in the ground. Heavy ground should be fine for her.

Waldgeist goes on anything and has been best on Good to Soft, he handles Soft well but genuinely Heavy ground seems to hold him back a few lbs.

Deirdre has very few Soft ground runs to her name, she ran poorly on it this year at Ascot so Soft to Heavy would be unlikely to help her and she has a poor record over 12f type trips.

Fierement has apparently only run on firm going. He's a high class 2m stayer so if he handles Soft ground the extra stamina test will suit him.

Mehdaayih handles everything and Heavy ground suits many Frankels. There's a definite worry about her stamina which would be more worrisome if the ground is testing.

Music Amica handles everything but her stamina is suspect enough without having it tested further by Heavy going.

Anthony Van Dyck handles all ground but ran very poorly in the King George on Good to soft.

French King has raised his game on Good ground, his form on anything softer was moderate and his 4 run winning spree has been on good ground.

Blast Onepiece has apparently only run on Firm ground. He has 123 RPR form over 12f as a 3yo.

Kiseki is about the only Japanese runner who has made an impact on Soft ground. He won a 1m 7f G1 in Japan on Soft ground. If it turns into a slog he's a big priced place prospect.

Nagano Gold is a bit of a mudlark and would need it to be like a bog to place.

Matchwinner likes good ground, he used to be half decent but he's well past it as an 8yo.

Silverwave goes on everything but is better with Good in the going description. He's 7 and in reasonable form but is at least a Stone off placing in an Arc.

IAMAMORON

tryfix wrote: »

Mehdaayih handles everything and Heavy ground suits many Frankels. There's a definite worry about her stamina which would be more worrisome if the ground is testing.

I actually give her a squeak if the ground turns up soft or worse. It is interesting that Gosden leaves her in. I thought she was outpaced in the oaks, this can happen with mudlarks, it does not necessarily mean they have no stamina however. She is quite lightly raced and at a big price couldn't be ignored with a good draw. Is there not a G2 over 10f's for fillies on the Saturday?

It looks a weak renewal. Unless Enable gets a horrible draw and then endures a bad passage she should be beating all of those. If she runs to form she wins.

Slattsy

Is the ground soft??

The Tetrarch

The majority had high win to run percentages before their first Arc win (average 60%), and about five wins.
Almost all had won over 12f before their Arc win (I counted races 12f+).

Year Arc Winners Age Runs Wins Win % Run 12f Won 12f Win %
1988 Tony Bin 5
1989 Carroll House 4 15 6 40% 6 3 50%
1990 Saumarez 3 7 4 57% 0 0
1991 Suave Dancer 3 7 4 57% 2 1 50%
1992 Subotica 4 11 4 36% 6 1 17%
1993 Urban Sea 4 13 5 38% 3 0 0%
1994 Carnegie 3 6 4 67% 1 1 100%
1995 Lammtarra 3 3 3 100% 2 2 100%
1996 Helissio 3 6 5 83% 3 2 67%
1997 Peintre Celebre 3 6 4 67% 2 1 50%
1998 Sagamix 3 3 3 100% 3 3 100%
1999 Montjeu 3 7 6 86% 3 3 100%
2000 Sinndar 3 7 6 86% 3 3 100%
2001 Sakhee 4 9 6 67% 1 0 0%
2002 Marienbard 5 16 7 44% 15 7 47%
2003 Dalakhani 3 8 7 88% 3 2 67%
2004 Bago 3 8 6 75% 1 0 0%
2005 Hurricane Run 3 6 5 83% 2 2 100%
2006 Rail Link 3 6 4 67% 3 3 100%
2007 Dylan Thomas 4 17 9 53% 3 2 67%
2008 Zarkava 3 6 6 100% 1 1 100%
2009 Sea the Stars 3 8 7 88% 1 1 100%
2010 Workforce 3 4 2 50% 2 1 50%
2011 Danedream 3 11 4 36% 3 2 67%
2012 Solemia 4 12 4 33% 8 2 25%
2013 Treve 3 4 4 100% 1 1 100%
2014 Treve 4
2015 Golden Horn 3 7 6 86% 1 1 100%
2016 Found [Chantilly] 4 18 5 28% 4 1 25%
2017 Enable [Chantilly] 3 7 6 86% 5 5 100%
2018 Enable 4
. . . . . . . . .
. Average 8.5 5.1 60% 3.1 1.8 58%
. Median 7 5 71% 3 1.5 50%

The Tetrarch

Year 2019 field Age Runs Wins Win % Run 12f Won 12f Win %
2019 Anthony Van Dyck 3 12 5 42% 4 2 50%
2019 Blast Onepiece 4 8 4 50% 4 1 25%
2019 Deirdre 5 26 8 31% 1 0 0%
2019 Enable 5 14 13 93% 11 11 100%
2019 Fierement 4 5 2 40% 2 2 100%
2019 French King 4 14 5 36% 10 5 50%
2019 Ghaiyyath 4 7 5 71% 1 1 100%
2019 Japan 3 8 5 63% 3 2 67%
2019 Kiseki 5 14 2 14% 7 1 14%
2019 Magical 4 19 8 42% 4 1 25%
2019 Matchwinner 8 18 5 28% 3 1 33%
2019 Mehdaayih 3 8 4 50% 3 2 67%
2019 Musis Amica 4 8 2 25% 1 0 0%
2019 Nagano Gold 5 18 6 33% 14 6 43%
2019 Silverwave 7 31 10 32% 18 5 28%
2019 Sottsass 3 6 4 67% 1 1 100%
2019 Waldgeist 5 20 8 40% 12 5 42%

Average 13.9 5.6 40% 5.8 2.7 47%
Median 14 5 36% 4 2 50%

longshotvalue

The betting is mad on this race. To me its clearly Magical that is 2nd best, and its not even close. 16/1 with hills is great value. That said its not my type of price in this sort of race. Hopefully on the day someone will stick their head up in the w/o market.

yaboya1

Haven't a strong opinion on this, but Magical is 28-29 on the exchanges.That is just mental, especially considering Japan is no bigger than 6/1.

longshotvalue

yaboya1 wrote: »

Haven't a strong opinion on this, but Magical is 28-29 on the exchanges.That's just mental, especially considering Japan is no bigger than 6/1.

Now it makes sense. She's not going then. Must be going to Ascot instead

yaboya1

aidankkk wrote: »

Now it makes sense. She's not going then. Must be going to Ascot instead

It's the only logical explanation.

longshotvalue

yaboya1 wrote: »

It's the only logical explanation.

Only 2 ways to take that if its true, She cant beat Enable (unlikely as they never shirk away from a challange), or they have something better at home.

Slattsy

yaboya1 wrote: »

Haven't a strong opinion on this, but Magical is 28-29 on the exchanges.That is just mental, especially considering Japan is no bigger than 6/1.

Japan tearing up the gallops!!

BumperD

Am I missing something but magical has been beaten 3 times by enable so logic suggests sidestep another beating

Itziger

BumperD wrote: »

Am I missing something but magical has been beaten 3 times by enable so logic suggests sidestep another beating

Two of those were less than a length. Poor draw for Enable and there goes the length!!

The Tetrarch

Four taken out today

Arc runners

1. French King
2. Waldgeist
3. Ghaiyyath
4. Kiseki
5. Blast Onepiece
6. Fierement
7. Nagano Gold
8. Enable
9. Magical
10. Japan
11. Anthony Van Dyck
12. Sottsass

BumperD

Itziger wrote: »

Two of those were less than a length. Poor draw for Enable and there goes the length!!

I think she’s just superior and it won’t matter so longer as she is 100% fit and doesn’t get interference in running. I wouldn’t bet against her

yaboya1

aidankkk wrote: »

Only 2 ways to take that if its true, She cant beat Enable (unlikely as they never shirk away from a challange), or they have something better at home.

Unlikely on what we've seen to date.
Wouldn't touch O'Brien's 3yos in the Arc either. Woeful record!

IAMAMORON

The fact that there is only 12 entries at the 5 day declarations is telling.

Enable's to lose.

Slattsy

Anyone know what the ground is like currently? Not on Twitter or the like and can't find it on the line inter netgoogle anywhere.

The Tetrarch

Slattsy wrote: »

Anyone know what the ground is like currently? Not on Twitter or the like and can't find it on the line inter netgoogle anywhere.

Follow the link in post #24 earlier in this thread.

The Tetrarch

Following the link in post # 24

long term forecast Time Forecast Temp. Precipitation
Thursday 00:00–06:00 Fair. 6° 0 mm
06:00–12:00 Partly cloudy. 4° 0 mm
12:00–18:00 Partly cloudy. 12° 0 mm
18:00–00:00 Partly cloudy. 13° 0 mm
Friday 00:00–06:00 Rain. 11° 2.0 mm
06:00–12:00 Rain showers. 13° 1.2 mm
12:00–18:00 Rain showers. 16° 1.4 mm
18:00–00:00 Cloudy. 15° 0 mm
Saturday 00:00–06:00 Cloudy. 14° 0 mm
08:00–14:00 Partly cloudy. 11° 0 mm
14:00–20:00 Clear sky. 15° 0 mm
20:00–02:00 Fair. 11° 0 mm
Sunday 02:00–08:00 Light rain. 8° 0.6 mm
08:00–14:00 Heavy rain showers. 9° 8.8 mm
14:00–20:00 Rain showers. 14° 2.4 mm
20:00–02:00 Clear sky. 11° 0 mm

Slattsy

Sunday doesnt look good.

IAMAMORON

At this time of year you are also fighting the seasons. Nights are longer and temperatures drop. This affects soil temperatures and how receptive they are to any moisture.

I would expect standard October soft ground for Sunday, unless it is splitting the stones over there for the next 4 days there is not a chance the ground will turn up without plenty of give. They certainly won't be thinking about watering anyway.

The Tetrarch

Going suitability on the probable soft going (my opinion).
I judge this as much on the ground on which the trainer has chosen to run his horse in the past as much as the winning runs of the horse.
The clay soil of Longchamp can get very heavy.
The going will depend greatly on the rain forecast for Sunday morning arriving.

With the small field this year the draw (tomorrow morning) loses its significance.

1. French King – won his last four races, all on good. Has run on soft 5 of previous 10 races. Was 2nd in a 12f Listed race on soft.
2. Waldgeist – 8 wins from 20 starts, 2 wins on soft, 5th of 12 on heavy.
3. Ghaiyyath – 5 wins (3 on good, 2 on good/soft). In 7 races has not run on soft or slower.
4. Kiseki – 2 wins, on soft and on firm. His 2017 Japanese St Leger (Kikuka-sho) was on soft. The time was slow 13.34s/f.
5. Blast Onepiece – all his 8 runs were on firm
6. Fierement – 7 runs, all on firm. Won at 15f and at 16f. Won the 2018 Japanese St Leger (Kikuka-sho) over 14.91f in 186.1s (12.48s/f); Logician's St Leger win gd/fm 14.52f in 180.27s (12.41s/f).
7. Nagano Gold – 18 runs: gd/fm (1); good (10); st (1); soft (4); very soft (1); heavy (1). 1 win on heavy, 1 on st, 4 on good.
8. Enable – she has run only once on soft (and won obv), 3 on good/soft.
9. Magical – 19 runs: 5 gd/fm, 5 good, 3 gd/y, 4 soft, 1 sf/hvy, 1 heavy. She has won at 12f on soft.
10. Japan – 8 runs. Won a 7f maiden on heavy, won two 12f on good/soft.
11. Soft Light (supplemented?) trained by J-C Rouget (same trainer as Sottsass) so might be a pacemaker.
Has 1 win from 7 and it was on heavy (and four 2nds: gd (2); gd/sf; soft). Soft Light's sire, dam, damsire produce horses that are useful on soft imo.
12. Sottsass – has twice won on soft, twice on good. The stud fee of sire, Siyouni, has rsen from 7k to 100k in eight years.
A big worry is the winning record of Siyouni’s offspring: 0% heavy; 3% soft; 11% good/soft; 31% good; 29% good/firm; 25% firm (from small sample size). Another worry is Siyouni’s winners are highest in the 7-9f category. What might help Sottsass is his dam is by Galileo.
Sotsass was going to be my bet if the ground was good or faster. He won the Prix du Jockey Club in a time 2:02.90, an incredible 5.10 seconds below standard.
Anthony Van Dyck is not in the field so must have been withdrawn late.

Not favoured: French King; Waldgeist; Ghaiyyath; Blast Onepiece; Fierement; Sottsass
Might tolerate: Kiseki; Nagano Gold; Enable
Soft ground suits: Japan; Magical; Soft Light

BumperD

Soft light supplement explanation ie not pacemaker, added to give owner a runner, I wish I had 120k spare cash lying about idle

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/exceptional-sottsass-bang-on-course/172244

Slattsy

BumperD wrote: »

Soft light supplement explanation ie not pacemaker, added to give owner a runner, I wish I had 120k spare cash lying about idle

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/exceptional-sottsass-bang-on-course/172244

I bet ya do!

The Tetrarch

Interesting details about the history of the race.
13 horses failed in the race before winning, 17 failed to win after winning.
http://www.france-galop.com/en/content/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-times-decider