ALL - WEATHER BETS

MaxBet · 17-01-2020 11:50am

I wasn’t going to but the price is just too big , even though he’s getting on a bit now

7.00 Dun -
HAVE A NICE DAY 50/1 PP , BetVictor

MaxBet · 17-01-2020 4:11pm

British Lion ran better than his position (5th) , didn’t break well (comes with the territory with Rab on board) but still only beaten a length in the end

Plunger was a plunger , 20s into 10s but then decided to throw a wobbler before the start and was withdrawn

This next one , Newmarket Warrior could go close , it’s tight enough between a few of them and hard to judge the pace angle . This lad can run in a variety of styles but if he’s held up and delivered late-ish I think that’s the way to go here

Watching the market on one , possibly 2 more but if I don’t get it then just have to rely on the 50/1 Dundalk poke going in ...

MaxBet · 17-01-2020 10:46pm

Jan 18

6.45 Chelmsford -
ROOF GARDEN 18/1 PP / BF Sportsbook

MaxBet · 18-01-2020 11:20am

Jan 18

4.45 Chelmsford -
SUGAR PLUM FAIRY 7/1 generally

MaxBet · 18-01-2020 9:10pm

Muck .

Staked : 203pts
Returned : 148.5pts

MaxBet · 18-01-2020 10:39pm

Jan 19

1.25 Wolverhampton -
MANS NOT TROT 40/1 bet365
SEAFORTH 15/2 bet365

3.10 Wolverhampton -
YOURE COOL 33/1 bet365 , BetVictor

4.10 Wolverhampton -
CALIFORNIA LAD 30/1 PP , 28/1 BetVictor

HarshOstrich · 18-01-2020 10:41pm

MaxBet wrote: »

Jan 19

1.25 Wolverhampton -
MANS NOT TROT 40/1 bet365
SEAFORTH 15/2 bet365

3.10 Wolverhampton -
YOURE COOL 33/1 bet365 , BetVictor

4.10 Wolverhampton -
CALIFORNIA LAD 30/1 PP , 28/1 BetVictor

Your cool is always worth a bet on the all weather

MaxBet · 19-01-2020 11:34am

Seemed a big price (even bigger now) for one that’s proven himself under these conditions before. The fav looks the likeliest tbh but there’s a few that are a fraction of You’re Cool’s price that have plenty to prove

Nevin Parsnipp · 19-01-2020 11:41am

There has to be a reason for those high prices ....will watch the markets......but best of luck !

MaxBet · 19-01-2020 11:42am

In the 4.10 , Henry Croft and Hooflepuff meet each other again but it’s a better race than the last time . Noble Fox and Star Ascending should have no excuses today but California Lad seemed worth chancing at big odds (huge now) . He had more left in the tank when a running on 3rd over CD in May off 3lb higher (6lb incl decent jockeys claim today) and actually had Star Ascending in behind . A few decent runs at Dundalk today , capable enough on a going day .

MaxBet · 19-01-2020 11:53am

1.25 Wolves , I had Seaforth at a nice price when he won last in early December . I dont usually go back to the well again at lower odds , never mind lower odds and a higher mark but I think he should have won nto out 51 (runs off 52 today) when left with too much to do .
Back to the that 8.5f trip for the first time since (stayed on over 7f lto) he could be thereabouts again with a bit of luck .
Mans Not Trot is a big price based on a couple of CD runs earlier in the year .... 3rd off 56 beaten a length and winning off 53 , beating Thair in April .
Back from a lay-off so obvious concerns there but back off 53 today with another 7lb claimed over a CD he likes .... worthy of a speculative bet methinks .

MaxBet · 19-01-2020 11:55am

Nevin Parsnipp wrote: »

There has to be a reason for those high prices ....will watch the markets......but best of luck !

Reason is that not many people think they’ll win !
Therein lies the appeal for me though ...

MaxBet · 19-01-2020 1:38pm

Not for the thread stats but having a small bet on Mucho Talento w/o the fav in the novice stakes at Wolves .
Intello’s has a decent SR here and on breeding this one could be more at home over 7 than the 2m bumper lto .
Could just be a case of No Talento either ...

13/2 bet365

Yep , No Talento it is ..

IAMAMORON · 19-01-2020 2:28pm

Yabba Dabba dooooooo

MaxBet · 19-01-2020 11:46pm

Jan 20

1.50 Kempton -
MITTYS SMILE 28/1 generally

2.20 Kempton -
WILEY POST 7/1 bet 365 , BetVictor
ALFIE SOLOMONS 12/1 bet 365 , BetVictor

5.55 Wolverhampton -
RAILPORT DOLLY 14/1 bet 365 , BetVictor

6.55 Wolverhampton -
FINAL ATTACK 28/1 PP , BetVictor

7.25 Wolverhampton -
STREET POET 33/1 PP , BetVictor

MaxBet · 20-01-2020 10:47am

7.25 Wolverhampton -
ALLUX BOY 16/1 generally

MaxBet · 20-01-2020 10:53am

Said to myself last night if I got 16s or bigger today I’d have to back Allux Boy . Has a high enough rating and an absence to overcome but he did win off a mark like this on turf in the past and his last AW run (over CD) was a decent performance , winning comfortably in this grade by 6L . There were 5 subsequent winners behind but to be fair , it was last July and a few behind were bound to pick up a race at some point .
That said he did it well enough to think there was more there . Very tasty CD record .... 1211 .

MaxBet · 20-01-2020 2:53pm

MaxBet wrote: »

Jan 15

6.50 Sou -
MAERCHENGARTEN 1pt @ 40/1 bet365 , PP

Thanks be to Jaysus that didn’t get up in the 1.20 today . 66/1 ....

MaxBet · 20-01-2020 3:51pm

Wiley Post (7/1) covers the days exertions with a slim profit on top . Looked a decent time , there’s one or two in behind I’ll keep an eye on .
4 left to run this evening .

MaxBet · 20-01-2020 9:20pm

Poor evening , +1 for the day .

Staked : 214pts
Returned : 165.5pts

It’s interesting (to me anyway) the effect that posting my selections on here has had on my betting .

I can’t remember many before Christmas but there have been 3 runners this month that I second guessed myself out of backing / posting due to the fact that they were partially “hunch” bets and with a write up or explanation I’d have struggled to give a plausible , confident reasoning behind the bet .

Naturally the ones that I don’t put up that go on to win are the ones that stick in my head and it goes without saying that there could easily have been 4 or 5 times as many “hunch” losers that I didn’t follow through on .

There have also been a few that have made the “hunch” cut and been posted too . (Maerchengarten and Have A Nice Day spring to mind)

Anyway , I suppose my point is that had I not been posting and felt the need to be a bit more selective then I might have backed those 3 this month . So as the thread is not exactly firing as I hoped , I’m going to take the handbrake off over the next while and go back to my old mantra that the losers i back hurt a lot less than the winners I don’t . Especially at the prices .

So expect slightly increased outlay and hopefully I’ll bag a few that have gotten away lately .

Or end up potless .

Warble over !

MaxBet · 21-01-2020 1:44am

Following on from that little sermon above , it just had to be .... no bets tomorrow .

Plenty of AW racing to come this week so no doubt I’ll make up for the day off tomorrow .

Good luck

del roy · 21-01-2020 11:36am

noticed yesterday on the BHA site that the course was tilled to a depth
of 5inchs, (to accomodate the nhf race) personally can't see it settling
overnight to anwhere near standard, wont know untill i get some times,
but am treating the going as slow(soft),

from elsewhere so treat the results from todays meeting with care.

MaxBet · 21-01-2020 11:54pm

Jan 22

12.40 Lin -
OUR CHARLIE BROWN 22/1 PP , BetVictor

1.10 Lin -
BINT DANDY 25/1 PP , BetVictor
CHLOELLIE 10/1 generally
HIT THE BEAT 12/1 generally

2.20 Lin -
NAFAAYES 14/1 PP , BetVictor
SWEET NATURE 16/1 PP , BetVictor

4.30 Kem -
HARAZ 25/1 PP , BF Sportsbook

7.30 Kem -
SCOFFLAW 14/1 PP , BetVictor

8.00 Kem -
REVOLUTIONARY MAN 14/1 generally

MaxBet · 22-01-2020 3:53pm

No return from Lingfield , 25/1 2nd easily the closest .
3 to run at Kempton this evening , back around 10 for Newcastle / Southwell tomorrow ...

MaxBet · 23-01-2020 12:49am

Staked : 223pts
Returned : 165.5pts

Been through the 2 cards tomorrow top to bottom and nothing sticks out at a price if I’m honest . There’s a couple of possibles but they’ll need to loosen up a bit in the morning while there’s a fairly priced 3 time CD winner at Southwell who on his top form is value but a win tomorrow is probably speculative at best .
I’ll take another look through tomorrow but as things stand there will be no AW bets until a potentially busy Friday

MaxBet · 23-01-2020 10:53am

Splitting a point on a pair of “Just in case” bets

Jan 23

2.55 Southwell -
AZARI 0.5pt @ 28/1 PP , BetVictor

5.00 Newcastle -
CROSS STEP 0.5pt @ 25/1 generally

Cross Step’s breeding suggests he might find something for his first run at Newcastle but he could be just a flopped ex Godolphin .
Azari is capable enough based on previous form here but is in the doldrums now and the fav won comfortably last time .
Neither inspire great hope but just about worth a min bet at these prices

MaxBet · 23-01-2020 6:20pm

Cross Step 3rd @ 25/1 , -1pt for the day . On to a nice quiet Friday ...

Staked : 224pts
Returned : 165.5pts

MaxBet · 23-01-2020 11:10pm

Jan 24

12.00 Lin -
CRISTAL PALLAS CAT 14/1 PP , BetVictor

5.15 Wol -
AQUARIUS 11/1 PP , BetVictor

8.30 Dun -
NEYLAND 1.5pts @ 50/1 BetVictor ,SkyBet

MaxBet · 24-01-2020 1:45pm

Top up

5.15 Wol -
AQUARIUS 0.5pt @ 33/1 Bet365 , BetVictor

MaxBet · 24-01-2020 10:30pm

Jan 25

4.05 Lin -
ALICIA DARCY 8/1 SkyBet

5.30 Kem -
REGULATOR 8/1 bet365

MaxBet · 25-01-2020 10:13am

Jan 25

4.30 Kem -
SING BERTIE 12/1 WHill , PP

6.00 Kem -
NARJES 18/1 generally

Nevin Parsnipp · 25-01-2020 9:18pm

MMM...... Sing Bertie..last.......Narjes.....8th.....

Bad day ?

bluestone · 26-01-2020 12:21am

Nevin Parsnipp wrote: »

MMM...... Sing Bertie..last.......Narjes.....8th.....

Bad day ?

Easy from the cheap seats. Who were your fancies?

MaxBet · 26-01-2020 1:08pm

Nevin Parsnipp wrote: »

MMM...... Sing Bertie..last.......Narjes.....8th.....

Bad day ?

Yep , had better days

MaxBet · 26-01-2020 1:34pm

Staked : 232pts
Returned : 165.5pts

Just the one meeting tomorrow , there looks like there’ll be a couple of bets anyway . Possibly an early one around 5 or 6 which might well be supported if tomorrow is the day . Obviously depends on the price but forecast odds look good .

I won’t bang on about how bad the run is at the moment and even though it’s worse than I’ve come across in over 4 years I’m still confident enough it’ll turn around . I know the whole past results / future performance argument but I’ve had a LOT of bets over the stats and had similar dips before where it’s been turned around in a matter of days .

Just hope the hole doesn’t get so big that I can’t get out of it by the time I hit some form !

Either way , I’ll plough on until around the start of the flat and hopefully things end up better than they’ve gone so far . Apart from the festivals , nearly all my time will be spent on the AW between now and then so if it continues to go arseways it won’t be for lack of effort anyway .

MaxBet · 26-01-2020 8:21pm

Re the early bet , not getting as close to forecast odds as I hoped so not going for it as yet anyway . Plunger is the horse , 6.30 . Best price 11/1 atm

No bets today , back tonight for Southwell

Nevin Parsnipp · 27-01-2020 2:01pm

bluestone wrote: »

Easy from the cheap seats. Who were your fancies?

Soz guys..my post was not meant to be critical...but I can see how it might be interpreted as such....

Always like getting the info.....no offence intended .

N. P.

MaxBet · 27-01-2020 2:29pm

Doesn’t take much on a Monday , admittedly , but this Plunger has my head wrecked .

I was hoping for between the forecast 16s and 20/1 for a 1pt bet but having opened early yesterday with Hills the best I saw was a no bet 12/1 . There was bits of 14s around today but I had decided to leave it .

I’d expect this one to be backed at some stage if it’s on today but the fact that he can be a complete headbanger pre race muddies the water a bit . Ideally he could act the maggot before the start , get to a nice price on the exchange and as he’s drawn in 1 and likes to get on with the things , the opportunity should be there a little bit of in running.

His one spin on tapeta wasn’t bad , very hard to make all at Newcastle . He finished in a bunch of 4, three lengths behind the winner, Home Before Dusk . He was giving him 3lb (plus a claim I think) and he’s gone on to win again since , now rated 88. Plunger has been dropped 3lbs now to 72 today , plus down in trip which should be an advantage too .
All that can’t be taken too literally but it’ll be interesting to see what happens from around 6.15 onwards with this lad .

One way or another , I’ll have some sort of bet on him but it’ll be too late to put up really .

So there you have it .

The award for pointless post of the year goes to ....

MaxBet · 27-01-2020 3:00pm

Spent my lunch money on a lucky 15

5.30 - SAURONS EYE
Ex Ger Lyons horse , tapeta debut but a half brother to The Throstles , jockey flying

6.30 - PLUNGER
I won’t get into it again

7.00 - SAIKUNG
This is actually a decent race . Saikung went very close 2 runs back , easy forgive latest run and Ben Curtis takes over now

7.30 - UTOPIAN GOLD
Unlucky not to win here lto

IAMAMORON · 27-01-2020 3:15pm

I have gone in as well, balls deep.

1 x accum ew, 3 x triples ew 5 x doubles win only.

Yankees are my favourite bets in the world.

I have a single on Ben Curtis in the 7.00. He is one of the best.

27-01-2020 4:46pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have gone in as well, balls deep.

1 x accum ew, 3 x triples ew 5 x doubles win only.

Yankees are my favourite bets in the world.

I have a single on Ben Curtis in the 7.00. He is one of the best.

Maths don't seem right on this one

del roy · 27-01-2020 5:51pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Maths don't seem right on this one

maybe he did

€1 x acca
4 x €3 trebles
6 x €5 doubles

27-01-2020 6:00pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Maths don't seem right on this one

del roy wrote: »

maybe he did

€1 x acca
4 x €3 trebles
6 x €5 doubles

Wasn't a criticism, just an observation..

If all horses win those dastardly bookies will probably settle the bet in their favour

HarshOstrich · 27-01-2020 7:06pm

MaxBet wrote: »

Doesn’t take much on a Monday , admittedly , but this Plunger has my head wrecked .

I was hoping for between the forecast 16s and 20/1 for a 1pt bet but having opened early yesterday with Hills the best I saw was a no bet 12/1 . There was bits of 14s around today but I had decided to leave it .

I’d expect this one to be backed at some stage if it’s on today but the fact that he can be a complete headbanger pre race muddies the water a bit . Ideally he could act the maggot before the start , get to a nice price on the exchange and as he’s drawn in 1 and likes to get on with the things , the opportunity should be there a little bit of in running.

His one spin on tapeta wasn’t bad , very hard to make all at Newcastle . He finished in a bunch of 4, three lengths behind the winner, Home Before Dusk . He was giving him 3lb (plus a claim I think) and he’s gone on to win again since , now rated 88. Plunger has been dropped 3lbs now to 72 today , plus down in trip which should be an advantage too .
All that can’t be taken too literally but it’ll be interesting to see what happens from around 6.15 onwards with this lad .

One way or another , I’ll have some sort of bet on him but it’ll be too late to put up really .

So there you have it .

The award for pointless post of the year goes to ....

I think critical thinking is going to run a massive race i taught you might put him up the last day he ran when he was a big early price.

3rd run back today and ran really well from an unpromising position last time with some strong market support.

27-01-2020 8:03pm

HarshOstrich wrote: »

I think critical thinking is going to run a massive race i taught you might put him up the last day he ran when he was a big early price.

3rd run back today and ran really well from an unpromising position last time with some strong market support.

WD

Won it nicely, looks like he could go in again too

MaxBet · 27-01-2020 10:45pm

Nice shout HO , well done there .

Didn’t like the run of Plunger one bit but that’s the way it goes

On to tomorrow , looking forward to seeing O’Briens medaglio d’oro in the novice but the bets are

Jan 28

4.25 Sou -
GRACIES GIRL 10/1 PP , BetVictor
LADY CARDUROS 33/1 PP ,BF Sportsbook
CASARUAN 20/1 PP , BetVictor

5.25 Sou -
AQUARIUS 16/1 bet365

Good luck if having a pop .

MaxBet · 28-01-2020 11:42pm

Staked : 236pts
Returned : 165.5pts

Jan 29

6.45 Kempton -
MARTINEO 25/1 BetVictor , SkyBet
UNFORGIVING MINUTE 8/1 bet365 , BetVictor

7.15 Kempton -
DE LITTLE ENGINE 16/1 generally

7.45 Kempton -
THE BRITISH LION 14/1 BetVictor , PP
PEARL SPECTRE 16/1 generally

8.15 Kempton -
SWEET NATURE 20/1 PP , BetVictor

29-01-2020 12:49am

MaxBet wrote: »

Staked : 236pts
Returned : 165.5pts

Jan 29

6.45 Kempton -
MARTINEO 25/1 BetVictor , SkyBet
UNFORGIVING MINUTE 8/1 bet365 , BetVictor

7.15 Kempton -
DE LITTLE ENGINE 16/1 generally

7.45 Kempton -
THE BRITISH LION 14/1 BetVictor , PP
PRARL SPECTRE 16/1 generally

8.15 Kempton -
SWEET NATURE 20/1 PP , BetVictor

Thanks for posting your selections Max. You're due a bit of joy on balance of probabilities and you certainly know the time of day when it comes to picking them.

So I'm going to save myself studying time as your purple patch is imminent and back them all each way tomorrow whether or not I'll have to settle for 20% + less on the prices you got; as a winner is a winner.

Fair play for taking all the time involved and moreso for sharing

MaxBet · 29-01-2020 2:48pm

3.05 at Southwell tomorrow , LIGHTNING ATTACK looks a bit overpriced at the very early 33/1 with Hills .
Trainer has a dire record here but has booked Andrew Mullen for this horse’s fibresand debut . Only his second run for this yard and by a top Southwell sire , it’s interesting he’s dropped him half a mile and booked that jockey .
Won a 10f heavy ground Redcar seller on his last run for Richard Fahey in October , then never got into it on reappearance at Kempton earlier this month over 12f .
His only other previous AW run was a good 4th at Newcastle off 4lb higher than he runs now .
Only the 3 places but probably worth a little ew at a big price

MaxBet · 29-01-2020 3:00pm

In the 12f handicap earlier tomorrow , the sire of Joesph O’Briens Southwell winner the other day , Medaglia D’Oro has one running here for the first time - CLUBORA - who may improve a bit for the new trip / surface . But she would need to . Best price 12/1 now , a bit short for an interest despite the pedigree but if I got bigger and 4 places I’ll have a small bet .

The other one in that race of interest on breeding is ABOUT GLORY by Nayef . Won twice in September on grass for Ian Jardine , followed by 3 respectable AW runs . Stable / fibresand debut today needs to be spark something extra off the same mark but if it did , he might be involved . Best price 9/1 , similar comments as above apply here regarding a bet .

ALL - WEATHER BETS

Comments