Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

sdanseo · 12-10-2017 10:18pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

They have hurricane force winds over us but not a hurricane(once it changes to a white circle its no longer a hurricane), big difference in terms of rainfall and organisation of winds, even the wind is just about borderline category 1.

Thanks, you summed up the difference much better than my meandering nattering. Still though, 120km/h sustained winds is not to be sniffed at.

allthedoyles · 12-10-2017 10:23pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOZloVnY2yM

M.T. Cranium · 12-10-2017 10:24pm

Ophelia to head straight for Hamlet states weatherman

scooby77 · 12-10-2017 10:25pm

aisling86 wrote: »

If a level 3 warning is issued, do schools close? It wouldn't have been something I had to think about previous years....

"Status Red Weather Warning for Wind

Schools should note in particular Status Red weather warnings where strong winds or storm
conditions are forecasted. Due to the high degree of unpredictability as to the impact of the
weather associated with such a Status Red warning on local conditions schools should use the
following guidance to assist them in making their assessment.
Status Red weather warning for wind related conditions may be given in advance of a school
opening or it may arise during the day while a school is underway.

Advance Warning of Status Red
Following consultation at a national level with the Office of Emergency Planning and the
management bodies for schools, the Department of Education and Skills’ advice to schools is
that they should consider not opening where a Status Red weather warning related to wind is
forecast to coincide with the period/s during which students and staff would be expected to be
travelling to and from school.
Whether the school should open later in the day where an improvement to the weather is
forecast is a decision which should be taken in consultation with An Garda Síochána, the local
authorities, school transport services and other appropriate agencies based in the school’s area."
From Dept guidance in 2015. They rarely orders closure, but this as near as it gets!

JiffyJ · 12-10-2017 10:36pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ophelia to head straight for Hamlet states weatherman

To be, or not to be. That is the question...

Kalyke · 12-10-2017 10:46pm

JiffyJ wrote: »

To be, or not to be. That is the question...

Soft you now,The fair Ophelia?

mikeecho · 12-10-2017 10:51pm

This weekend might be a good time to make a little emergency box for the house.
Torches /batteries/ candles etc. Sort out my camping stove and buy some water.

I've a well, so no power, means no water.

Or am I over reacting ?

Chicken Run · 12-10-2017 10:56pm

mikeecho wrote: »

This weekend might be a good time to make a little emergency box for the house.
Torches /batteries/ candles etc. Sort out my camping stove and buy some water.

I've a well, so no power, means no water.

Or am I over reacting ?

IMO you can never be too prepared....
(Plenty of biscuits too....)

fred funk }{ · 12-10-2017 10:59pm

This shows just how bizarre this event is.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/918588394682437632

12-10-2017 10:59pm

18Z GFS at +96 hrs. Still not playing ball with the other models it seems. Sending it on a more westerly track.

Meteorite58 · 12-10-2017 11:00pm

You can see how Ophelia is sandwiched between two areas of HP, each area would help to give it rotation and the jet perfectly poised to steer it in towards us.

NOAA

km79 · 12-10-2017 11:01pm

GO WEST there are no people there

ronnie3585 · 12-10-2017 11:03pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Just sticking the 5pm (EDT) NHC chart in here as a screen shot for future reference. I've never seen a 'H' over Ireland before, even if it is showing the system as extra-tropical by then.

Mam's Mam remembered Debbie in 1961. She was in Westport in Co. Mayo at the time. Her abiding memory was the sheer amount of stuff flying around. Roof slates etc.

I live underneath that H:eek:

MJohnston · 12-10-2017 11:06pm

mikeecho wrote: »

This weekend might be a good time to make a little emergency box for the house.
Torches /batteries/ candles etc. Sort out my camping stove and buy some water.

I've a well, so no power, means no water.

Or am I over reacting ?

Imo always a good idea to have that kind of thing around, and one of those big 5l water bottles that you can store empty and fill just before any weather event is going to happen. None of it is perishable, and it doesn't take up a whole lot of room. Very rare that you'd have to use it in Ireland, but having it already beats having to rush out last minute to grab it, or not having it at all.

I remember I knew some families on the US East coast, and when they knew there was some heavy snowfall on the way, they'd fill the bathtubs with water, just in case!

xii · 12-10-2017 11:11pm

is it time to dust off Monopoly, and candles.

Harry Palmr · 12-10-2017 11:12pm

I'm torn between staying at home on Monday to keep an eye on things and going in to work, I'm starting to fear I could come back to a ruin!

Meteorite58 · 12-10-2017 11:12pm

Deleted User wrote: »

18Z GFS at +96 hrs. Still not playing ball with the other models it seems. Sending it on a more westerly track.

It seems to me that it is a bit more E than the last run. The GFS is not showing winds as strong as the European models at this stage.

89lhH9R.gif?1

Spanish Eyes · 12-10-2017 11:14pm

Fire up the powerbanks. Get a few batteries for the torches, a few candles (and matches!), I never remember to have them. Water is unlikely to be cut off but no harm to get a few bottles anyway. Food that you can eat without cooking it. If you only have electricity that is.

That's my priority prepping!

Getting very worried now, but have to park it till Saturday. We might know more tomorrow though.

Thank you to all who have the knowledge to interpret all the charts, and the inside track and are keeping us posted. Will be keeping an eye on this thread.

Soccarboy11 · 12-10-2017 11:17pm

So the general consensus is that Cork will get a hammering? Have a house in West cork, by Rosscarbery so wondering if I need to scrap my plans and go down there this weekend to tie everything down! Directly across from the Ocean in Owenahinca!

xii · 12-10-2017 11:20pm

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

So the general consensus is that Cork will get a hammering? Have a house in West cork, by Rosscarbery so wondering if I need to scrap my plans and go down there this weekend to tie everything down! Directly across from the Ocean in Owenahinca!

I think Japan will be OK.

Rougies · 12-10-2017 11:22pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I remember I knew some families on the US East coast, and when they knew there was some heavy snowfall on the way, they'd fill the bathtubs with water, just in case!

I vaguely remember my parents doing that here in Dublin at some stage in the 80s with talk of freezing and burst pipes.

yellowlabrador · 12-10-2017 11:22pm

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

So the general consensus is that Cork will get a hammering? Have a house in West cork, by Rosscarbery so wondering if I need to scrap my plans and go down there this weekend to tie everything down! Directly across from the Ocean in Owenahinca!

I was down there during a storm and I remeber the road being covered in foam. I suppose your biggest problem would be flooding.

Mooooo · 12-10-2017 11:23pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Fire up the powerbanks. Get a few batteries for the torches, a few candles (and matches!), I never remember to have them. Water is unlikely to be cut off but no harm to get a few bottles anyway. Food that you can eat without cooking it. If you only have electricity that is.

That's my priority prepping!

Getting very worried now, but have to park it till Saturday. We might know more tomorrow though.

Thank you to all who have the knowledge to interpret all the charts, and the inside track and are keeping us posted. Will be keeping an eye on this thread.

So this is likely the time where I'll be kicking myself for not getting a generator...

ronnie3585 · 12-10-2017 11:27pm

sdanseo · 12-10-2017 11:29pm

The overriding message here from all sources (met.ie, met office, NHC) is that until the storm turns and begins accelerating it's very difficult to be certain of anything.

In 24 to 36 hours, it gets easier. And I'm no expert by any means but that's the message I'm interpreting from both all of those sources and the regulars here, especially MT.

Itssoeasy · 12-10-2017 11:34pm

Just looking at the maps from the nhc and are the times on that EST or Irish times ?

sdanseo · 12-10-2017 11:34pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just looking at the maps from the nhc and are the times on that EST or Irish times ?

AST, same as ET for the moment. 5hrs behind us.

Spanish Eyes · 12-10-2017 11:34pm

Mooooo wrote: »

So this is likely the time where I'll be kicking myself for not getting a generator...

I think we will survive for a few days without electricity if worst comes to worst.

Babies, elderly and those with special needs is a different story though.

I hope this passes way to the West of us. Sorry to all the storm chasers, but honestly who would want the mayhem. OK if it is in unpopulated places. But most people don't want it anywhere near them.

Snow is a different matter though (I think)...:P:P:P

looksee · 12-10-2017 11:42pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm torn between staying at home on Monday to keep an eye on things and going in to work, I'm starting to fear I could come back to a ruin!

How will your being at home stop the wind taking the roof off

pad199207 · 12-10-2017 11:43pm

When stormchasers from the UK and The Continent are contemplating flying over here to IRELAND to intercept a hurricane, ya know something big and unprecedented is coming!

M.T. Cranium · 12-10-2017 11:45pm

I would rate the probability this way:

35% _ some part of Ireland in level 3 warning

30% _ highest alert level 2

25% _ highest alert level 1

10% _ some other outcome

Some other outcome would include a miss to east or far enough west to avoid even a level one, or Ophelia not passing the Azores or heading for Spain etc.

Not sure how one can ever verify such statements except to do same for many events and see what the scatter of actual outcomes is.

Floki · 12-10-2017 11:46pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think we will survive for a few days without electricity if worst comes to worst.

Babies, elderly and those with special needs is a different story though.

I hope this passes way to the West of us. Sorry to all the storm chasers, but honestly who would want the mayhem. OK if it is in unpopulated places. But most people don't want it anywhere near them.

Snow is a different matter though (I think)...:P:P:P

He probably has a thousand cows to milk though.;)

pauldry · 12-10-2017 11:48pm

Yes this is exciting if dangerous

Gerard from Met Erring on the side of caution

To me whatever occurs it will be windy for quite a number of hours. May escape rainfall like Desmond but wind will be prolonged.

Interesting days ahead

Donegal Storm · 12-10-2017 11:49pm

sdanseo wrote: »

The overriding message here from all sources (met.ie, met office, NHC) is that until the storm turns and begins accelerating it's very difficult to be certain of anything.

In 24 to 36 hours, it gets easier. And I'm no expert by any means but that's the message I'm interpreting from both all of those sources and the regulars here, especially MT.

Hopefully people remember this if things don't play out as currently forecast but I doubt it!

Simply due to the laws of probability the current forecast (rivalling the strongest storm ever recorded) isn't likely to happen so downgrades are almost a given

Meteorite58 · 12-10-2017 11:52pm

Latest spaghetti models

Kermit.de.frog · 12-10-2017 11:53pm

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/918609531214729222

MJohnston · 12-10-2017 11:53pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest spaghetti models

If I remember reading right, the NHC track is essentially a weighted composite of all the other tracks, isn't it?

Oscar Bravo · 12-10-2017 11:54pm

Rte radio 1 now for met eireann latest

Gaoth Laidir · 12-10-2017 11:57pm

I think maybe there should be a dedicated thread for purely technical updates and one for general chat. That way the forecast details don't get lost.

Here's the latest wind 21Z analysis, showing max winds 78 knots, up from 66 knots at 18Z.

Latest forecast track, showing 65 knots right on the Irish coast 18Z Monday. It should be travelling at around 55 km/h at that stage.

al172017.17101212.gif

lucernarian · 13-10-2017 12:02am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest spaghetti models

I never understood what many of those abbreviations meant, like CLP5 for example

squarecircles · 13-10-2017 12:04am

You Are Not Hallucinating. A Hurricane Is Headed To Ireland

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/10/12/you-are-not-hallucinating-a-hurricane-is-headed-to-ireland/

Forbes.com

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2017 12:06am

lucernarian wrote: »

I never understood what many of those abbreviations meant, like CLP5 for example

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

pad199207 · 13-10-2017 12:07am

I think we my have to keep an open mind to the possibility of a Cat 1 Hurricane with a warm core and possible eye making landfall in Ireland.

This is all extremely fascinating to follow.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-10-2017 12:09am

Hurricane season in Ireland

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2017 12:14am

I never understood what many of those abbreviations meant, like CLP5 for example

Big long list of them here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

NHC

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

Whatsdastory · 13-10-2017 12:16am

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

nagdefy · 13-10-2017 12:21am

Whatsdastory wrote: »

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

Hurricane Charlie was just a storm wind wise it was the exceptionally heavy rain in the east made it a major event. In terms of wind this event is potentially far more threatening.

Donegal Storm · 13-10-2017 12:23am

pad199207 wrote: »

I think we my have to keep an open mind to the possibility of a Cat 1 Hurricane with a warm core and possible eye making landfall in Ireland.

This is all extremely fascinating to follow.

Already cold drier air being injected well to our south so don't think there's any possibility of that

Debbie supposedly still had tropical characteristics when it made landfall though so anything is possible I guess

Doltanian · 13-10-2017 12:23am

Whatsdastory wrote: »

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

This will be the most devastating storm to strike Ireland since The night of the big wind in 1839

Hurricane Charley in 1986 was an event known for catastrophic flooding and unprecedented amounts of rain but wasn't a huge wind event. Hurricane Ophelia will cause carnage on Monday along the Western Seaboard with Kerry and West Cork to be severely effected if it does strike here.

sdanseo · 13-10-2017 12:24am

Whatsdastory wrote: »

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

The general public don't consume uncertain messages well, and are overly critical of, well, just about everything. Especially weather forecasts that aren't correct.

For that reason until things are more certain this will be a curiosity article rather than a headline for another day or two until things are more set in stone.

If this comes off as predicted worst case - it will make Charley look like a stiff breeze. On the other hand, as MT has said - chances of that are probably less than 50/50 for now.

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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