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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #152
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,494 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/?type=surf
    Surf should be good


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    #153
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    12Z UKMO

    UW96-21_mrk6.GIF

    2s6gPbq.gif?1

    U96-21UK_rnu9.GIF


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    #154
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    :eek: Don't see that every day. This could or is becoming a serious matter me thinks.

    tempresult_nhj6.gif


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    #155
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,358 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This is mostly for mods, but open to general discussion -- if all guidance looks this intense after the 00z model runs, and if GFS starts to drift back towards consensus, then I think level 2 is justified and if that continued into 12z Saturday then level 3, with the original post edited to reflect the upgraded level of concern.

    Our philosophy has always been to go with the highest level likely to affect any significant part of the country so it doesn't have to be level 3 in Dublin to justify that designation, but maps can be produced to show what level applies to each part of the country. From the current guidance excluding GFS, would say level 3 would apply to almost all of Munster, some parts of Connacht and perhaps southwest Leinster, level 2 would apply to almost all other regions. Some tracks might put Donegal into only a level 1 exposure and there could be sheltered parts of the southeast in level 1 also.

    For your planning, the strongest winds would likely come from nearly due south veering to southwest during the event. You can do some harmless (costless) advance planning simply by inspecting your location for possible tree falling potential, trees are most likely to fall towards the north through northeast, and make sure your vehicle won't be parked in any such location, also if you think you are susceptible to roof tile damage, same concept applies, flying debris will head towards north-northeast. A lot of vehicle damage at least can be avoided by choosing a parking spot (if you can't park indoors) that is unlikely to be impacted by falling or flying debris. It's going to be a nice warm weekend for many so lots of time to get as ready as possible if this continues to be the model trend.


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    #156
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    A nice image at 1540Z. Notable is the absence of a central dense overcast, so it seems to have an appearance more like a medicane (Mediterranean hurricane).

    2017AL17_1KMSRRGB_201710121540_SYNT.GIF


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    #157
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    ARPEGE is going for 150kmph+ gusts further east and along the south coast. Inland gusts nationwide over 130kmph


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    #158
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,242 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Any tips on securing windows if this comes to the worst?

    Irish houses don't have storm shutters. Is there anything we can do to protect windows that won't just blow off and become flying debris themselves?


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    #159
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Just curious, but would this be as strong as Darwin in 2014?


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    #160
    Eaglebridie 32
    Registered Users Posts: 266 ✭✭Eaglebridie 32


    What volume of rain could this conceivably dump on us?


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    #161
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    not 100% sure on the reliability of this site but it seems to be endorsed by some in the know in the US

    on5JBvy.png

    tqVvDax.png

    Ojq4fkV.png

    yiOccKm.png


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    #162
    __..__
    Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭__..__


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Just curious, but would this be as strong as Darwin in 2014?

    Much stronger


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    #163
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I think people need to remember that the system will be racing northwards at over 50 km/h so the duration of max winds won't be prolonged, just like Debbie in 1961.

    track1b.gif

    These were the max winds reported during that event. The problem was the storm's motion northwards at around 60 km/hr, otherwise winds would have been much less.

    debbie-winds.png


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    #164
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Eaglebridie 32 wrote: »
    What volume of rain could this conceivably dump on us?

    I dont think thats the concern right now but if it tracks further east the West could be on for a dumping instead of the nightmarish winds


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    #165
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Very much like the ECM track

    MH9ehiW.png

    The NHC forecast at these times is similar to the previous
    one and lies on the right side of the deterministic guidance
    envelope but is near the middle of the ECMWF, UKMET and GEFS
    ensemble members. Regardless of the exact track, post-tropical
    Ophelia is likely to bring some impacts to Ireland and the United
    Kingdom as a powerful extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.

    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
    tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
    United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
    direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
    as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
    uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
    exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
    Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
    Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
    impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
    Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
    issued by the Met Office.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 12/1500Z 30.5N 35.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
    12H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 13/1200Z 31.6N 33.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 14/0000Z 32.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 14/1200Z 34.4N 27.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 15/1200Z 40.9N 18.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    96H 16/1200Z 51.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 17/1200Z 60.5N 5.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


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    #166
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,905 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Oh God. I am here alone from Sunday night till Wednesday, and quite frankly I am mighty scared about this.

    I know this is a weather forum, and lots of you like chasing storms and praying for snow and so on, but on this occasion given the potential severity of this event, maybe we should hope and pray that it veers West and fecks off into the Atlantic.

    I'm in Dublin, and hoping against hope that it stays out to sea somewhere between here and America.

    It is a great thread to remind people of the dangers. But there is only so much you can do apart from battening down the hatches and taking the precautions that MT has so kindly posted. I will be terrified either way.


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    #167
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    cherryghost wrote: »
    ARPEGE is going for 150kmph+ gusts further east and along the south coast. Inland gusts nationwide over 130kmph

    Basically a nationwide red warning!


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    #168
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Oh God. I am here alone from Sunday night till Wednesday, and quite frankly I am mighty scared about this.

    I know this is a weather forum, and lots of you like chasing storms and praying for snow and so on, but on this occasion given the potential severity of this event, maybe we should hope and pray that it veers West and fecks off into the Atlantic.

    I'm in Dublin, and hoping against hope that it stays out to sea somewhere between here and America.

    It is a great thread to remind people of the dangers. But there is only so much you can do apart from battening down the hatches and taking the precautions that MT has so kindly posted. I will be terrified either way.

    At the moment the very worst case prediction for Dublin has been 130km/h gusts. We've seen that several times in the last few years, so unless it takes a hefty swing east, I wouldn't be too worried. By no means complacent either, but it wouldn't be catastrophic here by any means.

    Western and southern coastal areas would be a totally different story however.


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    #169
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    ECMWF seems to track further east that before, Dublin and the east coast suddenly could be in the danger zone yet.

    Gonna be plenty of hype in the media that a hurricane is hitting us but even with a direct hit it'll be long transitioned to post tropical so rainfall amounts will be fraction of what you'd get in a real hurricane and the eyewall structure will be gone

    To the guy asking whether it'll be worse than Desmond, on this evenings guidance I'd say potentially yes and there's the added problem that most trees are still full of leaves so will blow over much easier than in a similar storm in December. Again though, its still 4 days away so for now just keep an eye on forecasts, if we're seeing similar charts on Saturday evening then it's time to get more worried. We'll likely see plenty more shifts in track and intensity before then


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    #170
    __..__
    Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭__..__


    The trees won't be full of leaves on Tuesday :)


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    #171
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,905 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    sdanseo wrote: »
    At the moment the very worst case prediction for Dublin has been 130km/h gusts. We've seen that several times in the last few years, so unless it takes a hefty swing east, I wouldn't be too worried. By no means complacent either, but it wouldn't be catastrophic here by any means.

    Western and southern coastal areas would be a totally different story however.

    130kph winds :eek:

    But thanks for the reassurance. Things can change from day to day, so let's hope for the best. Just got a brand new roof on the shed/garage two weeks ago. Feck sake. But as long as no lives are lost hopefully all will be ok.

    Still scared witless, but will be watching this thread avidly.


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    #172
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,523 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    ECMWF seems to track further east that before, Dublin and the east coast suddenly could be in the danger zone yet.

    Gonna be plenty of hype in the media that a hurricane is hitting us but even with a direct hit it'll be long transitioned to post tropical so rainfall amounts will be fraction of what you'd get in a real hurricane and the eyewall structure will be gone

    To the guy asking whether it'll be worse than Desmond, on this evenings guidance I'd say potentially yes and there's the added problem that most trees are still full of leaves so will blow over much easier than in a similar storm in December. Again though, its still 4 days away so for now just keep an eye on forecasts, if we're seeing similar charts on Saturday evening then it's time to get more worried. We'll likely see plenty more shifts in track and intensity before then

    I know we aren't expecting much rain, but how good are we in Ireland about predicting storm surges? Genuine question!


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    #173
    Malayalam
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,188 ✭✭✭Malayalam


    West coast here. I have stocked up on Polytunnel repair tape and a major reinforcement will be made to the structures over next couple of days. It's kind of scary to be honest ...following for info :eek:


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    #174
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,748 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    sdanseo wrote: »
    ...130km/h gusts. We've seen that several times in the last few years...

    Not in Dublin!


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    #175
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    __..__ wrote: »
    The trees won't be full of leaves on Tuesday :)

    What trees? ;)


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    #176
    Chicken Run
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭Chicken Run


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Any tips on securing windows if this comes to the worst?

    Irish houses don't have storm shutters. Is there anything we can do to protect windows that won't just blow off and become flying debris themselves?

    We lived in a rental house with a couple of massive west-facing windows.... Taped them with criss-crossed masking tape to prevent shattering (like WWII style)

    Dunno how effective it actually is.... Gave us something constructive to do I guess


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    #177
    thomasj
    Registered Users Posts: 4,789 ✭✭✭thomasj


    https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/918552931368161282


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    #178
    CJhaughey
    Registered Users Posts: 14,906 ✭✭✭✭CJhaughey


    I'd better check the generator, get some fuel and sharpen the chainsaws and some spare chains just in case.
    Drum of water wouldn't be stupid either.
    It may amount to nothing but I'd rather be ready than not in this case if the worst forecasts are half accurate.
    This time of year trees are still carrying a lot of leaf and will be very susceptible to high winds, not alone that the ground has had a lot of rain as well in the last week.
    It could be interesting.


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    #179
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Not in Dublin!

    Maybe not, although without doing any digging online I can only be anecdotal, I've certainly seen >60kt gusts in Dublin Airport METARs a few times.


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    #180
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    I remember the Xmas storms a couple of decades ago (90’s someone here will point the date,there was one two xmas’s in a row) and the main item on the BBC tv news was 100000 homes in the republic without power


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    #181
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Maybe not, although without doing any digging online I can only be anecdotal, I've certainly seen >60kt gusts in Dublin Airport METARs a few times.

    You'd want 70kt+ gusts to be getting 130km/h gusts. Strongest I remember in recent years was 79kts at Shannon, that was a scarily windy Wednesday!(12/02/14).


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