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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Rougies

MJohnston wrote: »

I remember I knew some families on the US East coast, and when they knew there was some heavy snowfall on the way, they'd fill the bathtubs with water, just in case!

I vaguely remember my parents doing that here in Dublin at some stage in the 80s with talk of freezing and burst pipes.

yellowlabrador

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

So the general consensus is that Cork will get a hammering? Have a house in West cork, by Rosscarbery so wondering if I need to scrap my plans and go down there this weekend to tie everything down! Directly across from the Ocean in Owenahinca!

I was down there during a storm and I remeber the road being covered in foam. I suppose your biggest problem would be flooding.

Mooooo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Fire up the powerbanks. Get a few batteries for the torches, a few candles (and matches!), I never remember to have them. Water is unlikely to be cut off but no harm to get a few bottles anyway. Food that you can eat without cooking it. If you only have electricity that is.

That's my priority prepping!

Getting very worried now, but have to park it till Saturday. We might know more tomorrow though.

Thank you to all who have the knowledge to interpret all the charts, and the inside track and are keeping us posted. Will be keeping an eye on this thread.

So this is likely the time where I'll be kicking myself for not getting a generator...

ronnie3585

gfsgif.pl?start=60;end=96;im=jsslp;dbdate=20171012;dbtime=12

sdanseo

The overriding message here from all sources (met.ie, met office, NHC) is that until the storm turns and begins accelerating it's very difficult to be certain of anything.

In 24 to 36 hours, it gets easier. And I'm no expert by any means but that's the message I'm interpreting from both all of those sources and the regulars here, especially MT.

Itssoeasy

Just looking at the maps from the nhc and are the times on that EST or Irish times ?

sdanseo

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just looking at the maps from the nhc and are the times on that EST or Irish times ?

AST, same as ET for the moment. 5hrs behind us.

Spanish Eyes

Mooooo wrote: »

So this is likely the time where I'll be kicking myself for not getting a generator...

I think we will survive for a few days without electricity if worst comes to worst.

Babies, elderly and those with special needs is a different story though.

I hope this passes way to the West of us. Sorry to all the storm chasers, but honestly who would want the mayhem. OK if it is in unpopulated places. But most people don't want it anywhere near them.

Snow is a different matter though (I think)...:P:P:P

looksee

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm torn between staying at home on Monday to keep an eye on things and going in to work, I'm starting to fear I could come back to a ruin!

How will your being at home stop the wind taking the roof off

pad199207

When stormchasers from the UK and The Continent are contemplating flying over here to IRELAND to intercept a hurricane, ya know something big and unprecedented is coming!

M.T. Cranium

I would rate the probability this way:

35% _ some part of Ireland in level 3 warning

30% _ highest alert level 2

25% _ highest alert level 1

10% _ some other outcome

Some other outcome would include a miss to east or far enough west to avoid even a level one, or Ophelia not passing the Azores or heading for Spain etc.

Not sure how one can ever verify such statements except to do same for many events and see what the scatter of actual outcomes is.

Floki

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think we will survive for a few days without electricity if worst comes to worst.

Babies, elderly and those with special needs is a different story though.

I hope this passes way to the West of us. Sorry to all the storm chasers, but honestly who would want the mayhem. OK if it is in unpopulated places. But most people don't want it anywhere near them.

Snow is a different matter though (I think)...:P:P:P

He probably has a thousand cows to milk though.;)

pauldry

Yes this is exciting if dangerous

Gerard from Met Erring on the side of caution

To me whatever occurs it will be windy for quite a number of hours. May escape rainfall like Desmond but wind will be prolonged.

Interesting days ahead

Donegal Storm

sdanseo wrote: »

The overriding message here from all sources (met.ie, met office, NHC) is that until the storm turns and begins accelerating it's very difficult to be certain of anything.

In 24 to 36 hours, it gets easier. And I'm no expert by any means but that's the message I'm interpreting from both all of those sources and the regulars here, especially MT.

Hopefully people remember this if things don't play out as currently forecast but I doubt it!

Simply due to the laws of probability the current forecast (rivalling the strongest storm ever recorded) isn't likely to happen so downgrades are almost a given

Meteorite58

Latest spaghetti models

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/918609531214729222

MJohnston

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest spaghetti models

If I remember reading right, the NHC track is essentially a weighted composite of all the other tracks, isn't it?

Oscar Bravo

Rte radio 1 now for met eireann latest

Gaoth Laidir

I think maybe there should be a dedicated thread for purely technical updates and one for general chat. That way the forecast details don't get lost.

Here's the latest wind 21Z analysis, showing max winds 78 knots, up from 66 knots at 18Z.

Latest forecast track, showing 65 knots right on the Irish coast 18Z Monday. It should be travelling at around 55 km/h at that stage.

al172017.17101212.gif

lucernarian

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest spaghetti models

I never understood what many of those abbreviations meant, like CLP5 for example

squarecircles

You Are Not Hallucinating. A Hurricane Is Headed To Ireland

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/10/12/you-are-not-hallucinating-a-hurricane-is-headed-to-ireland/

Forbes.com

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

I never understood what many of those abbreviations meant, like CLP5 for example

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

pad199207

I think we my have to keep an open mind to the possibility of a Cat 1 Hurricane with a warm core and possible eye making landfall in Ireland.

This is all extremely fascinating to follow.

Kermit.de.frog

Hurricane season in Ireland

Meteorite58

I never understood what many of those abbreviations meant, like CLP5 for example

Big long list of them here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

NHC

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

Whatsdastory

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

nagdefy

Whatsdastory wrote: »

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

Hurricane Charlie was just a storm wind wise it was the exceptionally heavy rain in the east made it a major event. In terms of wind this event is potentially far more threatening.

Donegal Storm

pad199207 wrote: »

I think we my have to keep an open mind to the possibility of a Cat 1 Hurricane with a warm core and possible eye making landfall in Ireland.

This is all extremely fascinating to follow.

Already cold drier air being injected well to our south so don't think there's any possibility of that

Debbie supposedly still had tropical characteristics when it made landfall though so anything is possible I guess

Doltanian

Whatsdastory wrote: »

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

This will be the most devastating storm to strike Ireland since The night of the big wind in 1839

Hurricane Charley in 1986 was an event known for catastrophic flooding and unprecedented amounts of rain but wasn't a huge wind event. Hurricane Ophelia will cause carnage on Monday along the Western Seaboard with Kerry and West Cork to be severely effected if it does strike here.

sdanseo

Whatsdastory wrote: »

Me confused
If the storm hits ireland as expected does it mean it will be the worst to ever hit ireland?
Worse than Hurrican Charlie in 1986?

Dont see much coverage of this susposed storm on the news yet, are poeple on this thread over reacting?

The general public don't consume uncertain messages well, and are overly critical of, well, just about everything. Especially weather forecasts that aren't correct.

For that reason until things are more certain this will be a curiosity article rather than a headline for another day or two until things are more set in stone.

If this comes off as predicted worst case - it will make Charley look like a stiff breeze. On the other hand, as MT has said - chances of that are probably less than 50/50 for now.