WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

Redsunset · 17-02-2012 12:18pm

UK Met Warning

Sleet and snow showers will extend from the northwest on Saturday and last through Saturday night into Sunday morning. These are likely to lead to widespread ice developing on untreated surfaces. In addition some 2-5cm of snow is likely to accumulate locally away from immediate north and west facing coastal fringes. Over Northern Ireland there is a risk that 5-10cm of snow could accumulate in places on ground above about 200m. The public should be aware that this could lead to some disruption to travel.
The public is advised to take extra care.

2012-2-18

Every thing I highlighted in post, even mentioned the word disruption that was frowned upon in thread title.

davidsr20 · 17-02-2012 1:27pm

Looks like the north will get it all as usual, I'd be so happy with even a day of snow now

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2012 1:27pm

I just thought it sounds a bit alarmist for a temporary thing.

Although it is very likely that Saturday will be the best chance most people have had this winter to catch a passing snow shower during the day. Wintry showers will turn widespread in the afternoon and you could catch a mini blizzard; but it is highly unlikely to stick for any length of time away from northern mountains and overnight in lucky spots.

Redsunset · 17-02-2012 1:52pm

Well temporary or not it still needs to be addressed for health and safety reasons and it's the Met Professionals duty to issue the warning and they have done so.

snowstreams · 17-02-2012 2:19pm

Im heading in the right direction so by going to Mayo this evening. I'll probably take a stroll up one of the smaller mountains on Saturday or sunday. Unless of course there is too much snow to drive to the foot of the mountains

average_runner · 17-02-2012 5:48pm

The title of this thread is very misleading. Should just say showers for the north of the country on high ground.

There will be no major disruption for the rest of Ireland. If you went by some the titles on this form this year you would of been very disappointed.

I think what we learnt over last few weeks take everything with a pinch of salt unless it comes from Su.

Harps · 17-02-2012 6:04pm

average_runner wrote: »

The title of this thread is very misleading. Should just say showers for the north of the country on high ground.

There will be no major disruption for the rest of Ireland. If you went by some the titles on this form this year you would of been very disappointed.

I think what we learnt over last few weeks take everything with a pinch of salt unless it comes from Su.

What are you on about? The title clearly states high ground and northern regions.

There's plenty of high ground around here with some major roads including the main Letterkenny/Sligo and Derry/Belfast roads likely to be affected so safe to say there will be disruption. A good chance snow will fall to low levels as well and even if it doesn't stick for long it will create hazardous driving conditions.

Rebelbrowser · 17-02-2012 6:22pm

Harps wrote: »

What are you on about? The title clearly states high ground and northern regions.

There's plenty of high ground around here with some major roads including the main Letterkenny/Sligo and Derry/Belfast roads likely to be affected so safe to say there will be disruption. A good chance snow will fall to low levels as well and even if it doesn't stick for long it will create hazardous driving conditions.

Agreed. And it could be more extensive than that. To be honest I fancy some snow showers for anywhere west of a line going from Limerick to Belfast. In fact if you take the 12z GFS precipitation chart literally (I know) we are all quids in for snow!

Seriously, a forecast of the possibility of snow is not a forecast of snow, let alone heavy snow - just like a forecast of possible high winds is not a forecast of high winds, let alone a hurricane. Its not a crime to suggest there might be snow. And its fun too.

Redsunset · 17-02-2012 6:27pm

I think it's a case of, If it's not happening in my back yard, I don't want to know attitude round here. I can't be that mad if UKMET issued practically same warnings. Yeah it'll be very brief and won't affect a large chunk of the country but it's still a danger for anyone traveling on the higher ground up north, with ice as I mentioned a big danger. The problem is ,it's not the snowmageddan many of us craved for in recent months.

Su Campu · 17-02-2012 7:28pm

I think for northern regions this will be an event, but for others we're talking a cold raw day with scattered wintry showers, especially on high ground. We should see some widespread sferics over the ocean off the North coast.

Regarding whether any snow will stick we need to look at ground temperatures. We've had such a mild run of it at late with mild nights that the ground has a fair amount of warmth stored in it. As the cold front will be passing during the daylight hours tomorrow, the ground will remain warm during tonight due to the cloud cover. The first snow to fall will have to get to work cooling the ground down to a level that will allow further snow to stick, but this requires prolonged snowfall, not just short sharp showers. So it may be that although some snow may fall from the sky, it will instantly melt on the ground and should not cause a problem. After dark the ground will cool quickly and it will make it a lot easier for the snow to accumulate, but by that state pressure will be rising from the west and showers will be becoming lighter overland. So overall it will probably turn out that the areas to see accumulations will be coastal areas of the north and northwest (and of course higher ground), plus higher ground further south.

Su Campu · 17-02-2012 7:55pm

We already have that comma feature I spoke of off Iceland this evening, and this should move southeastwards towards Scotland/Ulster by this time tomorrow. Still not sure Ulster will see a whole lot from it, more likely Scotland.

Sponge Bob · 17-02-2012 8:50pm

Su Campu wrote: »

We already have that comma feature

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/Comma/structure.htm

Basically it may provide a strong feed of moisture bearing cloud in a cold system which is otherwise rather dry

A Comma is a very prominent cloud feature developing and existing in cold air. There are several similar phenomena within cold air: One of them is Enhanced Cumulus cloudiness (see Enhanced Cumulus ). Also a ring of vortices, crescent, oval, solid cloudiness, multiple deep or shallow bands, single deep or shallow bands or swirls in cumulus streets can all be found in cold air. In order to distinguish the Comma from other features in cold air, the Comma cloudiness is defined as a small to meso-scale cloud spiral consisting of white (i.e. cold) cloud cells partly overlaid by cirrus shields. In most cases the strongest convection can be found in the Comma tail, but sometimes enhanced convection can also be found in the Comma head. In a few cases the Comma head and tail are separated by a narrow cloud-free area or only connected by low clouds (although this may not be apparent during the whole life time of the system). The scale of a Comma lies between 200 and 1000 km, i.e. much smaller than a fully developed depression or a cyclone.

Wild Bill · 17-02-2012 10:03pm

Met Eireann forecast.....no mention of any snow atall atall tomorrow - "wintry showers " over northern hills is as close as they get :cool:

darkman2 · 17-02-2012 10:30pm

Hi all,

Rain clearing southeastward early on may give a brief period of sleet or snow locally before clearing. By mid morning snow showers will be getting into the north and northwest of the country and these will become widespread across the northern half of the country in the afternoon (roughly north of a line from north Wicklow across to Galway). Heavier snow showers in northern counties will probably leave temporary accumulations at low levels. They probably won't be heavy enough futher south nor frequent enough. Higher ground in the northern half of the country (a line from north Wicklow across to Galway) can expect between 5 and 10cm of snow accumulation. During the evening showers will die out in most places but Ulster will see heavier showers for a time tomorrow night and 3 - 5cm's is easily possible on low ground there.

That's the outline of the current model forecasts. But we have to turn our attention to the high resolution short term models for more specific information.

Here is the 12z UKNAE forecast precipitation for tomorrow.

davidsr20 · 17-02-2012 11:51pm

Wonder will be see a flake or two in Craughwell Galway

redsteveireland · 18-02-2012 12:16am

davidsr20 wrote: »

Wonder will be see a flake or two in Craughwell Galway

Looks like we are in the firing line for some showers, accumulations are a different story. We live in hope.

km79 · 18-02-2012 12:19am

redsteveireland wrote: »

davidsr20 wrote: »

Wonder will be see a flake or two in Craughwell Galway

Looks like we are in the firing line for some showers, accumulations are a different story. We live in hope.

Sure you slept through the last "snowstorm" we had LOL

redsteveireland · 18-02-2012 12:32am

km79 wrote: »

Sure you slept through the last "snowstorm" we had LOL

Ha, some people have great memories!:D

irish1967 · 18-02-2012 12:57am

Snow? I'm back. Lol.

Deep Easterly · 18-02-2012 2:10am

First signs of the actual cold front showing up along the western seaboard now with Belmullet gusting up to 41kts on the 12am reports. This cold front passage may actual be of more interest for those of away from the north than anything that tomorrow has to offer with the potential for some sharp bursts of rain and squally winds in places as it passes over the country later tonight.

http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-rain-d2.html

redsteveireland wrote: »

Ha, some people have great memories!

or great imaginations.. !!!

Harps · 18-02-2012 3:09am

Dew point is set to drop by 8C over a 3 hour period here tonight and by even more than that by tomorrow morning, currently 7.1C, by 12am tomorrow, its projected to be -6C which is an extremely impressive drop as the cold front passes through.

Still unconvinced that I'll see any real snow here tomorrow but a really interesting day ahead regardless, some nice heavy showers about with potential for snow, hail and thunderstorms anywhere across the north. Dewpoint as low as -6C during the day tomorrow

irish1967 · 18-02-2012 10:08am

First shower of sleet here at the moment. Not far off snow.

davidsr20 · 18-02-2012 10:54am

Where's here?

km79 · 18-02-2012 11:03am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

First signs of the actual cold front showing up along the western seaboard now with Belmullet gusting up to 41kts on the 12am reports. This cold front passage may actual be of more interest for those of away from the north than anything that tomorrow has to offer with the potential for some sharp bursts of rain and squally winds in places as it passes over the country later tonight.

http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-rain-d2.html

redsteveireland wrote: »

Ha, some people have great memories!

or great imaginations.. !!!

Camera at the ready

redsteveireland · 18-02-2012 11:52am

Showers seem quite weak at the moment. Plenty of snow reports from the north of the country on twitter.

boatbuilder · 18-02-2012 12:16pm

Brief but heavy hail shower followed by brief snow shower here near Shercock Co. Cavan ~110m asl

Su Campu · 18-02-2012 12:38pm

Here's the comma system north of Donegal, heading southeastwards towards Scotland and Ulster. Much of Ulster should see some action from it, which could be interesting for places like the Glenshane Pass, etc.

h-image.ashx?region=eu&time=201202181100&ir=True

h-image.ashx?region=eu&time=201202181100&ir=True

Eastcoastryan · 18-02-2012 12:49pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Here's the comma system north of Donegal, heading southeastwards towards Scotland and Ulster. Much of Ulster should see some action from it, which could be interesting for places like the Glenshane Pass, etc.

Hi Su,

Any chance of it getting anywhere near this neck of the woods.. Dublin / Wicklow or is it on route to Scotland and N. England?

Su Campu · 18-02-2012 12:57pm

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Hi Su,

Any chance of it getting anywhere near this neck of the woods.. Dublin / Wicklow or is it on route to Scotland and N. England?

We could see something from it, though it may be more of a sleety mix. Keep an eye on radar and satelllite.

MiNdGaM3 · 18-02-2012 1:09pm

Dew points at both Malin Head and Finner Camp below 0C now, the dry polar air gradually pushing south.

thomasj · 18-02-2012 1:11pm

Hail shower currently in west dublin

snowstreams · 18-02-2012 1:22pm

Brief sleet shower here in castlebar. It feels cold in the wind but not cold enough for snow yet. Hopefully later on.

irish1967 · 18-02-2012 1:25pm

snowstreams wrote: »

Brief sleet shower here in castlebar. It feels cold in the wind but not cold enough for snow yet. Hopefully later on.

Same here in Donegal Town.

darkman2 · 18-02-2012 1:47pm

I think if the showers in your area are not sleet or snow at this stage you don't have long to wait. Conditions increasingly good for snow through the day. It's not really a forecast situation anymore. Just keep an eye on radar and satellite like Su says. A decent chance that many will see at least a flake. In the north heavier and frequent snow showers.

pauldry · 18-02-2012 2:09pm

heavy hail in sligo 4.6c

but temp climbs to 7c between the shwers. already back up to 5.3c in the sun

JanuarySnowstor · 18-02-2012 2:10pm

Is the title of this thread not slightly over the top.
Cool with sun and showers, some of hail not more accurate?

redsteveireland · 18-02-2012 2:11pm

Brief shower with large hail. Hard to tell if there is sleet/snow mixed in as the wind gets quite strong in these showers and it could be just hail getting blown around.
Everything is melting on contact as the the sun is warming the ground between showers.

davidsr20 · 18-02-2012 2:25pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I think if the showers in your area are not sleet or snow at this stage you don't have long to wait. Conditions increasingly good for snow through the day. It's not really a forecast situation anymore. Just keep an eye on radar and satellite like Su says. A decent chance that many will see at least a flake. In the north heavier and frequent snow showers.

Any chance we might see something in Galway darkman?

Pangea · 18-02-2012 2:25pm

Its SNOWING here and Windy

snaps · 18-02-2012 2:26pm

yes, same here. Hail which looks like sleet, snow in the showers, but the ground so warm from the stronger sun its melting on contact. soon as showers pass, air temp straight up to around 8c. Fingers crossed for tonight, but it seems as soon as the sun will sink it will be clear and frosty with no percip.shoot

Deep Easterly · 18-02-2012 2:27pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Brief shower with large hail. Hard to tell if there is sleet/snow mixed in as the wind gets quite strong in these showers and it could be just hail getting blown around.
Everything is melting on contact as the the sun is warming the ground between showers.

That last shower just brought rain here though with some blustery winds, but can see another biggish looking shower up Mayo side which is heading this way. Taken about 5 mins looking NNW:

Edit 2.01pm: Shower arrived, started off as hail but turned quickly back to rain and was never at any stage particularly heavy. Passed through very quickly.

cyclops999 · 18-02-2012 2:30pm

Just got caught in an unholy sleet shower on Croagh Patrick very cold .

rilz · 18-02-2012 3:02pm

Snowing quite heavy here at sea level. Hope match aint called off for 3.

Lucreto · 18-02-2012 3:02pm

Heavy hail shower here in Naas. The ground it white at the moment.

Its turned to sleet now.

JJJJNR · 18-02-2012 3:15pm

Just got sunburnt while outside doing odd jobs. :eek:

Harps · 18-02-2012 3:20pm

Snowing here for the past 20 minutes

Ground is all white

Guess I'll take a quick video

TheMilkyPirate · 18-02-2012 3:24pm

Heavy hail shower all the way down here in the sunny south east about ten minutes ago, Was surprised by that.

littlebug · 18-02-2012 3:26pm

we had snow here in south Mayo about half an hour ago... lovely big chunky snowflakes. Sun shining again now

Deep Easterly · 18-02-2012 3:34pm

A dewpoint temperature of -1.0c at Valentia on the 2pm reports, which is the lowest of any of the reporting synoptic stations. -0.5c at Oak Park and -0.2c at Dublin Apt.

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Macy0161 · 18-02-2012 3:34pm

Heavy hail shower here in the wicklow mountains, with a few small flakes beginning to be in the mix. Lovely day up to now, so pretty much melting on contact.

WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

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