Any thoughts on Ryanair

Not worth the hassle

Wheety wrote: »

Bit of a rally today. I'm up over €300 today (still down overall).

I'm sure some have made a decent profit if they got in at less than €9.

Currently €10.09.

Soo you have about €8000 worth of Ryanair ? fair play ... (accumulate to speculate and all that ..)

IAG up almost 6% as well. Hold both Ryanair and IAG myself ... its nice to get some respite ....but both have been hammered in the last few months...and I'm still a good distance off BEP. But hopefully good things to come.


Maybe you will find this article by Davy StockBrokers yesterday of interest




AIRLINES & OTHER TRANSPORT
Who Dares Wins

SEPTEMBER 09 2019 | Stephen Furlong , Ross Harvey CFA , Allan Smylie CFA , Andrew Young CFA | 56 page(s) | Print or Download PDF

Davy View
It may not feel like it, but the structural underpinnings of the European airline sector continue to improve. Those that deliver, i.e. the five leading airlines, now control over 60% of intra-European capacity and almost 90% of profits. The ‘rest’, except for Wizz, are characterised by a long tail and are struggling. We think industry consolidation is likely to continue and argue that even easyJet could be a target over the medium term. Meanwhile, valuations have collapsed, with Ryanair trading near the bottom of its range against fleet value and IAG <4x P/E. Both are structural winners.

Structural – sector is consolidating
IATA recently noted that average yields are 6% lower in Europe than in the US, where sector lengths are 50% longer – implying a like-for-like discount of 15-25%. Fares in Europe are 20% lower than East Asia, where the sector length is similar. Fragmentation weighs on margin levels, with the European short-haul market about 15 years behind the US. We expect further consolidation to come from a mix of organic consolidation, M&A and market exits/bankruptcies – perhaps quicker than the market would think.

Cyclical – not all KPIs are negative
The expected level of capacity growth in H2 2019 (1.7%) would mark the first time since winter 2013/2014 that the market has returned to or moved below its long-term average growth rate. This is taking place rapidly off the elevated 6% growth levels seen from late-2015 through 2018, when a lower oil price encouraged capacity additions from carriers. The delay in the Boeing MAX will further tighten supply. Cash flow problems for the ‘tail’ typically become unsustainable in the seasonally weak period of October to February. Finally, there should be a positive correlation between demand and the oil price if there is deflation.

Valuation – implies earnings declines of circa one-third next year
Valuations appear to be pricing in earnings drops of at least one-third next year as low-cost carriers (LCCs) typically trade on 7-8x and the network airlines on 4-5x EV/EBITDA(R) multiples. With the leading airlines having ‘investment grade’ balance sheets, they are both well prepared and better positioned to take account of any opportunities in a potential downturn. Given both structural and cyclical factors, valuations are unduly harsh.

Ryanair at €10.61 currently.

Anyone get in at €8.50? :eek:

What happened today? Did I miss some news? Almost at my BEP now. Although I'd expect a fall back tomorrow.

ISEQ up almost 4% today (Nice one, Leo!!!!) ...

Ryanair up 10% in London and 7% on the ISEQ on the day.

What a day!!!

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

It was bad news about the max but all figures seem to be ahead of forecasts, apart from Laudamotion.

Anyone who got in at €8.50, well done. Huge gains.

During the dip, I managed to bring my BEP down to €11.82 so I'm a good bit up now. Thought I would cash in at this point but I think next year could see it get back to €15 when the max is in operation.

Almost €14 now.

Think I'll put in a stop loss sell order for around €13.75

Scrap that. Have an order to sell half my holding for €14.

Will keep me below the CGT cut off rather than selling all of them.

I didn't get in but well done to those on here that did it in, especially at €10. Great return in just a few months. Up past €16 now.

I got in at 12.50 and sold at 14.50. Congrats to anyone holding them today though, highest point in about 2 years.