Any thoughts on Ryanair

Waltan

Any thoughts as to why Ryanair is not performing. Shares at 13.10 today from a high of 15.40. I know they were a bit overvalued but this is getting crazy.They posted decent results so I bought at 13.50 and again at 13.30 last week strongly expecting a rebound. Is it just general market drag?

heavy_sleeper

Waltan wrote: »

Any thoughts as to why Ryanair is not performing. Shares at 13.10 today from a high of 15.40. I know they were a bit overvalued but this is getting crazy.They posted decent results so I bought at 13.50 and again at 13.30 last week strongly expecting a rebound. Is it just general market drag?

the stock is not remotely cheap for an airline , easyjet ( admitedly an inferior company with an inferior brand ) is 50% cheaper , the american airlines are also way cheaper despite doing just as well as ryanair right now in the case of alaska airlines and south west

airlines traditionally dont have high PE,s , ryanair doubled from november 2014 to november 2015 , it could very easily go nowhere this year

its a terrific company but its stock market performance could not be described as anywhere close to underperforming by any measure

Johnny Jukebox

Their hedging gamble on aviation fuel has cost them heavily on the back of the oil price drop.

There was an article in the Phoenix magazine a couple of months back which discussed the SP in detail.

newacc2015

Johnny Jukebox wrote: »

Their hedging gamble on aviation fuel has cost them heavily on the back of the oil price drop.

There was an article in the Phoenix magazine a couple of months back which discussed the SP in detail.

Thats the second time they have done this. I think in 2008 when the world economy tanked. Ryanair had hedged most of their oil at like 3/4 times the market rate that most airlines were buying at. Ryanair needs a new oil strategist for hedging.

catbear

newacc2015 wrote: »

Thats the second time they have done this. I think in 2008 when the world economy tanked. Ryanair had hedged most of their oil at like 3/4 times the market rate that most airlines were buying at. Ryanair needs a new oil strategist for hedging.

Swings and roundabouts, they got a great deal on aircraft after 9/11.

On the stock, if you can see the bandwagon you're too late.

The price has grown sharply from mid 2012, the div yield is now well under 3%, can't really see the appeal at the current price if you are looking for a quick flip.

Longterm for a pension fund investment Ryanair is remotely appealing.

Cute Hoor

heavy_sleeper wrote: »

the stock is not remotely cheap for an airline , easyjet ( admitedly an inferior company with an inferior brand ) is 50% cheaper , the american airlines are also way cheaper despite doing just as well as ryanair right now in the case of alaska airlines and south west

airlines traditionally dont have high PE,s , ryanair doubled from november 2014 to november 2015 , it could very easily go nowhere this year

its a terrific company but its stock market performance could not be described as anywhere close to underperforming by any measure

Is this correct, as far as I can see there is very little difference in their P/E's, Ryanair 11.61, Easyjet 10.52, Southwest 12.63, Alaska 12.14 ?

Cute Hoor

Augeo wrote: »

The price has grown sharply from mid 2012, the div yield is now well under 3%, can't really see the appeal at the current price if you are looking for a quick flip.

Longterm for a pension fund investment Ryanair is remotely appealing.

There is no dividend yield as I understand dividend yield, Ryanair don't pay a dividend, well not like other companies do, they pay one anytime they feel like it, will they pay a dividend in the future.

Cute Hoor

Johnny Jukebox wrote: »

Their hedging gamble on aviation fuel has cost them heavily on the back of the oil price drop.

There was an article in the Phoenix magazine a couple of months back which discussed the SP in detail.

Ryanair have hedged at $62 per barrel for this year, down from $92 for financial year ending March 2016, a big improvement but still presumably paying too much, overall hedging is probably a good idea as it gives certainty around their costs

Waltan

Key Ratios
________ Company Sector Market
PER (E) r 11.59 16.58 18.18
Net Gearing -8.86
EPS growth 69%
Margin 18%

Im pretty new at this but these figure and a billion euro profit should mean growth. Please tell me what im missing.

AdMMM

Big bump today of 2.44% but this just seems to be a knock on effect of Chinese trade figures rather than anything the company has actually done.

Waltan

Breakout at last. 18.20 today. Glad i held onto them. Where's the get out point?

cute geoge

Ryanair is going through a bit of turbulence at the moment,please fasten year seat belts and prepare for a bumpy ride!!!!

Cannon_fodder

Worth picking up when the carnage hits the share price, any further rumblings after that I would be ditching them. This one they did not read well at all, if no one walks the plank for it I would stay well away

TheAbstracter

Why is there such a disparity between the share price on the NASDAQ vs the ISE + LSE?

NASDAQ $106
ISE €16.50
LSE £16.35

dealhunter1985

TheAbstracter wrote: »

Why is there such a disparity between the share price on the NASDAQ vs the ISE + LSE?

NASDAQ $106
ISE €16.50
LSE £16.35

1 ADR (which trades on the Nasdaq ) is equal to 5 ordinary shares. Factor in FX and that should add up..

TheAbstracter

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

1 ADR (which trades on the Nasdaq ) is equal to 5 ordinary shares. Factor in FX and that should add up..

Interesting, thanks.

Waltan

OLairy will throw the pilots a bone and he will be the hero again. It's over a decade since they got a pay rise so he has done well to avoid it this long. As was said above, good buying opportunities.

Wheety

Ryanair bought a few hundred thousand shares back after the price dropped :-D

Cute Hoor

Wheety wrote: »

Ryanair bought a few hundred thousand shares back after the price dropped :-D

They have been buying back shares all summer, paying well in excess of the current SP for most of them, they got this week's tranche far cheaper than their earlier buys.

YossiA

Crude Oil prices drifting up again so share price may dip further in near future.

wordofwarning

Merrion a few months ago before all of this believed that their shares were due for a correction. Ryanair just can't scale like it used to be.

Waltan

Monarch airlines gone bust so a big upside for Ryanair . Unemployed pilots a plenty. Shares up 3% today with more to come id say.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Ryanair up 6% since friday. FR seem to be riding the "turbulence" well. UK revenue investigating pilots employment now, pressure EU etc.

littlevillage

Ryanair trading around €15.50 on ISEQ today....after a couple of days of losses, anybody else tempted ?

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

yup results out on Tuesday? Will be interesting.

nuac

Pilots may at last succeed in getting proper T and Cs

737max

I bought some more shares in Ryanair just now in advance of the results tomorrow.
I was on a Ryanair return flight last week and it was full. I see no indication that people wish to stop flying with the company. It is a good solid company in my opinion.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

I've been topping up and bought a good chunk when it dipped below 15.50 Results will be interesting tomorrow.

lucky john

737max wrote: »

I bought some more shares in Ryanair just now in advance of the results tomorrow.
I was on a Ryanair return flight last week and it was full. I see no indication that people wish to stop flying with the company. It is a good solid company in my opinion.

Filling flights and growing their market is'nt the issue for Ryanir. For the future the problem for the low cost airline in higher costs (labor.. oil) and horror of horrors for Michael..Unionization.

737max

Their EPS is excellent. I see them as an excellent store of wealth. maybe they only grow slowly from now on but I'm happy to have them in my small portfolio.
They are as near to blue-chip as you will find in the aviation industry.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Results out today.

Profit up 11%
Cancellations cost 25m
Pilots pay increases 45m

Cute Hoor

Good news this morning and the SP has reacted accordingly.

However it is still far from plain sailing ahead. They have been doing a fair bit of marketing and fare slashing recently, presumably in an effort to negate the adverse publicity surrounding the cancellations. There is still a question mark around whether the cancellation issue is fully put to bed. EasyJet are after getting a chunk of Air Berlin and are expected to recruit 1,000 of their pilots. Ryanair still have the pilots issue to resolve, recruiting/training new ones and managing the increasingly belligerent existing pilots, if the existing pilots manage to unite they would have Ryanair over a barrell, something that MO'L might find very hard to stomach.

Still a good company but it wouldn't take a lot for things to start going pear shaped

737max

Easyjet have a significantly higher cost base than Ryanair and taking over some parts of Air Berlin is going to do nothing to help that. Even with the increases in pilot pay which Ryanair are willing to surrender their cost base is the lowest in the business by a long long way. There are articles on the internet which discuss it but I'm not going looking for them at the moment.

Cute Hoor

737max wrote: »

Easyjet have a significantly higher cost base than Ryanair and taking over some parts of Air Berlin is going to do nothing to help that. Even with the increases in pilot pay which Ryanair are willing to surrender their cost base is the lowest in the business by a long long way. There are articles on the internet which discuss it but I'm not going looking for them at the moment.

The issue there (as I understand it) is that Ryanair are willing to increase pilot pay (and T&C's) but not to the extent that the pilots want. If Ryanair pilots manage to get themselves organised (while the pilot shortage continues to exist) Ryanair will be paying them far in excess of what they are currently offering if they want to avoid further disruption. If they could get their hands on a chunk of the Air Berlin or Monarch pilots that would weaken the pilot's position and ease the pressure on Ryanair.

737max

Cute Hoor wrote: »

The issue there (as I understand it) is that Ryanair are willing to increase pilot pay (and T&C's) but not to the extent that the pilots want. If Ryanair pilots manage to get themselves organised (while the pilot shortage continues to exist) Ryanair will be paying them far in excess of what they are currently offering if they want to avoid further disruption. If they could get their hands on a chunk of the Air Berlin or Monarch pilots that would weaken the pilot's position and ease the pressure on Ryanair.

Pilots are for the most part contracted and what current pilots want is not what the market is happy to settle for. Those who are agitating don't want to admit that Ryanair pilots are now well paid and the non-financial benefits of working up hours on an in-demand airframe with huge career possibilities within Ryanair and outside are great incentives.

You need to decide if you believe the message being propagated in media or if the fundamentals of the Ryanair offer are genuinely good.
I made my decision that what is being pushed in the media is mostly misleading noise.

Cute Hoor

737max wrote: »

Pilots are for the most part contracted and what current pilots want is not what the market is happy to settle for. Those who are agitating don't want to admit that Ryanair pilots are now well paid and the non-financial benefits of working up hours on an in-demand airframe with huge career possibilities within Ryanair and outside are great incentives.

You need to decide if you believe the message being propagated in media or if the fundamentals of the Ryanair offer are genuinely good.
I made my decision that what is being pushed in the media is mostly misleading noise.

Fair enough, and all I'm suggesting is the pilot issue (if one exists) is a potential bump on the road for Ryanair. If there is no pilot issue and no further issue re flight cancellations then it's full steam ahead.

737max

The only thing investors should be annoyed about is that Ryanair is mostly responsible for driving Monarch, Air Berlin and Alitalia out of business but their current embarrassments prevent them from capitalising fully on this.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Ryanair responsible for their collapse is a stretch.

All three airlines you mentioned have been struggling financially for years. Air Berlin was operating in an already crowded German market. Monarch didn't know where they were at and Alitalia refuse to change with the times.

737max wrote: »

The only thing investors should be annoyed about is that Ryanair is mostly responsible for driving Monarch, Air Berlin and Alitalia out of business but their current embarrassments prevent them from capitalising fully on this.

littlevillage

littlevillage wrote: »

Ryanair trading around €15.50 on ISEQ today....after a couple of days of losses, anybody else tempted ?

When the share price fell down to about €15.50 there in Oct due to the roostering problems, I was a bit slow off the mark and didn't fill my boots ...(I posted on here at the time). The Shares subsequently rose 20% to above €18.30 in the weeks after that when it emerged that Ryanair results were hardly dented at all by the cancellations.

Will this latest issue with Pilots striking provide another opportunity to buy in ? Shares down to about €16.90 today on ISE.

But how low will they go ?

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Share price sliding further, currently 15.76. Time to buy a few?

737max

I'd be buying except they are already too large a part of my (humble) portfolio. I need balance. Definitely not selling.

littlevillage

Olivia CoolS Femur wrote: »

Share price sliding further, currently 15.76. Time to buy a few?

Got some at €15.65, a few minutes ago :-)

(Wasn't going to miss out on a dip, again). If O'Leary can sort out the Pilots and with Monarch out of business ....the future could be bright

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Got distracted luckily! Got a few at 15.50 but expect it to drop further.

littlevillage

Olivia CoolS Femur wrote: »

Got distracted luckily! Got a few at 15.50 but expect it to drop further.

Nice one.

I got a couple more at €15.47 just now ... they are on a real slide, -5% in a couple of hours, this surely won't continue into the afternoon? ...hope theres nothing in the news that I have missed :-[

lucky john

Still a bit to play out here yet. Michael has given in on a 35 year solid stance that has been the bed rock of Ryanairs success as a low cost air line. Now that the gates have opened to the unions its very unclear the damage this could do. Its certainly going to strain the low cost model. This dip is not the same as the roster problem. Although that has led to where we are today it was never going to have the same long term effect as a unionised Ryanair will have. I wouldn't be surprised if this went below €14 over the next few months.

littlevillage

Erm... I hadn't seen the news on the Union recognition :-(

Share price is down almost 7% today.

Even so...I still think its an opportunity to pick up some shares. If they fall further over the next few days ..pick up more.

littlevillage

Watching with interest to see if the price will slump below €15.

If it does, I'll be tempted to buy more

Geuze

15.14 at 15:30.

lucky john

littlevillage wrote: »

Erm... I hadn't seen the news on the Union recognition :-(


Its your money Littlevillage so you can spend it as you please. I would suggest you get a business app or any reasonable investing apps so you can check the news now and again. If any share price falls 5% all of a sudden and especially one like Ryanair there is always reason. Buying blind is not good for the bank balance.

anyone wounder whats going on with Michael O Leary? A lot of decisions at Ryanair that do not have his stamp on them, today's been the biggest. They say they took this decision to accommodate all their customer flying home for Christmas. In return they risk dumping their life long USP. Would Michael really do that? If so why? For such a driven, sure footed company you would have to question what's going on.

littlevillage

lucky john wrote: »

littlevillage wrote: »

Erm... I hadn't seen the news on the Union recognition :-(


Its your money Littlevillage so you can spend it as you please. I would suggest you get a business app or any reasonable investing apps so you can check the news now and again. If any share price falls 5% all of a sudden and especially one like Ryanair there is always reason. Buying blind is not good for the bank balance.

anyone wounder whats going on with Michael O Leary? A lot of decisions at Ryanair that do not have his stamp on them, today's been the biggest. They say they took this decision to accommodate all their customer flying home for Christmas. In return they risk dumping their life long USP. Would Michael really do that? If so why? For such a driven, sure footed company you would have to question what's going on.

Down a further 5% today .....(gulp)