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Any thoughts on Ryanair

Waltan

Any thoughts as to why Ryanair is not performing. Shares at 13.10 today from a high of 15.40. I know they were a bit overvalued but this is getting crazy.They posted decent results so I bought at 13.50 and again at 13.30 last week strongly expecting a rebound. Is it just general market drag?

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JMMCapital

Not worth the hassle

Wheety

Bit of a rally today. I'm up over €300 today (still down overall).

I'm sure some have made a decent profit if they got in at less than €9.

Currently €10.09.

bcklschaps

Wheety wrote: »

Bit of a rally today. I'm up over €300 today (still down overall).

I'm sure some have made a decent profit if they got in at less than €9.

Currently €10.09.

Soo you have about €8000 worth of Ryanair ? fair play ... (accumulate to speculate and all that ..)

IAG up almost 6% as well. Hold both Ryanair and IAG myself ... its nice to get some respite ....but both have been hammered in the last few months...and I'm still a good distance off BEP. But hopefully good things to come.

Maybe you will find this article by Davy StockBrokers yesterday of interest

AIRLINES & OTHER TRANSPORT
Who Dares Wins

SEPTEMBER 09 2019 | Stephen Furlong , Ross Harvey CFA , Allan Smylie CFA , Andrew Young CFA | 56 page(s) | Print or Download PDF

Davy View
It may not feel like it, but the structural underpinnings of the European airline sector continue to improve. Those that deliver, i.e. the five leading airlines, now control over 60% of intra-European capacity and almost 90% of profits. The ‘rest’, except for Wizz, are characterised by a long tail and are struggling. We think industry consolidation is likely to continue and argue that even easyJet could be a target over the medium term. Meanwhile, valuations have collapsed, with Ryanair trading near the bottom of its range against fleet value and IAG <4x P/E. Both are structural winners.

Structural – sector is consolidating
IATA recently noted that average yields are 6% lower in Europe than in the US, where sector lengths are 50% longer – implying a like-for-like discount of 15-25%. Fares in Europe are 20% lower than East Asia, where the sector length is similar. Fragmentation weighs on margin levels, with the European short-haul market about 15 years behind the US. We expect further consolidation to come from a mix of organic consolidation, M&A and market exits/bankruptcies – perhaps quicker than the market would think.

Cyclical – not all KPIs are negative
The expected level of capacity growth in H2 2019 (1.7%) would mark the first time since winter 2013/2014 that the market has returned to or moved below its long-term average growth rate. This is taking place rapidly off the elevated 6% growth levels seen from late-2015 through 2018, when a lower oil price encouraged capacity additions from carriers. The delay in the Boeing MAX will further tighten supply. Cash flow problems for the ‘tail’ typically become unsustainable in the seasonally weak period of October to February. Finally, there should be a positive correlation between demand and the oil price if there is deflation.

Valuation – implies earnings declines of circa one-third next year
Valuations appear to be pricing in earnings drops of at least one-third next year as low-cost carriers (LCCs) typically trade on 7-8x and the network airlines on 4-5x EV/EBITDA(R) multiples. With the leading airlines having ‘investment grade’ balance sheets, they are both well prepared and better positioned to take account of any opportunities in a potential downturn. Given both structural and cyclical factors, valuations are unduly harsh.

redlead

bcklschaps wrote: »

Soo you have about €8000 worth of Ryanair ? fair play ... (accumulate to speculate and all that ..)

IAG up almost 6% as well. Hold both Ryanair and IAG myself ... its nice to get some respite ....but both have been hammered in the last few months...and I'm still a good distance off BEP. But hopefully good things to come.

.

I bailed out of IAG a little bit below my BEP the day after it had the 6% gain. There just seems to be never ending bad news stories that impacts it. I can't see it share price going much higher anytime soon. Buying either IAG or Ryanair before we know what's going to happen with Brexit is a pure gamble at this stage though. They'll get hammered with a no deal.

Wheety

Ryanair at €10.61 currently.

Anyone get in at €8.50? :eek:

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Broke 11 today, currently € 11.23

Wheety

What happened today? Did I miss some news? Almost at my BEP now. Although I'd expect a fall back tomorrow.

Bob Harris

I cashed in this morning. Up over 20% over the last few months.
With Brexit looming over the next days and weeks I'd be prefer to sit on the sidelines and if it takes a dip perhaps get back in.

rivegauche

JMMCapital wrote: »

Not worth the hassle

€11.62 today less than two months later. Not worth the hassle?

Wheety

rivegauche wrote: »

€11.62 today less than two months later. Not worth the hassle?

Almost €11.90 now.

Gone past my BEP now. Not sure whether to cash in and just get out of it.

Waltan

Thar she blows! Ryanair is gonna benefit from recent airline failures. More consolidation likely in Europe. Might still represent value but not for much longer. Good long term prospects I reckon.

Wheety

Broken through €12 now.

littlevillage

ISEQ up almost 4% today (Nice one, Leo!!!!) ...

Ryanair up 10% in London and 7% on the ISEQ on the day.

What a day!!!

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

Now at 8.50.

From 8.50 in August, back to over 12.00 in Oct/Nov.

Cute Hoor

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

delta_bravo

Finally over my BEP. Unsure whether to offload it now. Its made great ground in the last couple of months but overall the last 18 months has been shaky

Wheety

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

It was bad news about the max but all figures seem to be ahead of forecasts, apart from Laudamotion.

Anyone who got in at €8.50, well done. Huge gains.

During the dip, I managed to bring my BEP down to €11.82 so I'm a good bit up now. Thought I would cash in at this point but I think next year could see it get back to €15 when the max is in operation.

Geuze

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Ryanair try to announce bad news and the SP takes off, now over 13.
If you bought in mid August (and held) at 8.50 Geuze you have turned a nice profit.

I bought at 3.60 / 4.00 many years ago, and then at 10.50 as they fell last year.

I am wondering now is there any way to reduce CGT by selling my loss-making shares in Anglo / PTSB?

Wheety

Almost €14 now.

Think I'll put in a stop loss sell order for around €13.75

Scrap that. Have an order to sell half my holding for €14.

Will keep me below the CGT cut off rather than selling all of them.

Wheety

Sold a load at 14. It's still going. 14.10 now.

Mad_maxx

delta_bravo wrote: »

Finally over my BEP. Unsure whether to offload it now. Its made great ground in the last couple of months but overall the last 18 months has been shaky

hold , the very substantial short position has been closed in the past few months , any sort of large short position will disproportionately drive down a share price , especially in a volatile sector like airlines

Waltan

Seems to be resistance above 14€. Sell now or is there still an upside?

ctlsleh

Waltan wrote: »

Seems to be resistance above 14€. Sell now or is there still an upside?

the Max announcements don't seem to be impact the shareprice which is good......., hard to know where its going to go though.......
i'm still underwater, but at least we have closed the gap from the summer. its going to be either a long hold, or get out and diversify and hope to make up the losses elsewhere

delta_bravo

14.93 now after the election news

[Deleted User]

And I'm out.

Bought this the whole way down...15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10 and sold out today at 14.60.

Happy to take my profit for now as I don't think there's much scope for it to increase much more in the near future.

Geuze

It has reached 15 euro now.

crushproof

I didn't get in but well done to those on here that did it in, especially at €10. Great return in just a few months. Up past €16 now.

Aidan Harney

I got in at just above 10 and am happy. I'm just troubled as to know when to get out!! I know nobody has a crystal ball etc, seems counterintuitive to sell while it's on the up. But like everyone knows, it's only hindsight will show when the best time to sell was. Fun fun.

Umaro

I got in at 12.50 and sold at 14.50. Congrats to anyone holding them today though, highest point in about 2 years.

machu

Why the big increase with oil prices on the way up I thought it would be dropping not that I’m complaining.