Daily Million...Scam??

no live draw? wtf does anyone play this thing? never seems to be announcements of winners

korb wrote: »

Can we all put our minds together and bit this thing?

I agree with you, for me I love daily million . You can be part of daily millions lotto group in Facebook.

So interesting

I have a conundrum, or perhaps a game-theoretical head-scratcher about the Daily Million.

Please note, I am not a mathematician and I'm not a dreamer; I don't think I've suddenly cracked the secret sauce to winning the DM, and I'm sure there's a simple maths answer to my problem. It's just something that came to mind that I can't quite square in my head.

A hypothetical scenario.

> Imagine the same 100,000 people play DM every day, and nobody else does. So the entire universe of DM players is 100,000. (I ponder how accurate this number might be in the note at the bottom, but let's go with it for now for the purposes of the hypothetical).

> The odds for any of these people to win the DM or DM+ jackpot are c. 3m:1 for each draw. http://www.lottogenie.com/html/odds.html

> Back to the real world, Lotto says there've been 28 DM or DM+ winners since 2012: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/national-lottery-expands-daily-million-to-two-draws-per-day-34637983.html. So that's about 7 wins on average pa 2012-2016. (We can stipulate that this distribution may be freakish, and not match the long term, but let's go with the figure of 7 pa for now.)

> So here's the conundrum: How are my odds 3m:1 when we know that 7 out of 100,000 players will win a jackpot each year? Why aren't my odds 100,000:1 rather than 3m:1?

To put it another way: My only competition in the race to 1 of the 7 inevitable prizes is, axiomatically, the 99,999 other people who play.

.............

A quick note on how many people play DM/DM+:

I suspect my 100,000 guesstimate for the total universe of DM players may not be too far off. On Lotto's website you can see there are between c.300 and c.600 winners in each DM and DM+ draw, making c.1,000 winners per draw. I believe in a 39-ball draw, your chances of winning any prize is c. 30:1. (http://www.lottogenie.com/html/odds.html) suggesting a total of c. 30,000 players per game.

Further, this makes me think the entire universe of players would be pretty limited. I suspect a lot of people never play DM, and I also suspect there's a hardcore who (almost) always play it. The middle ground - those who play occasionally - is probably pretty small, and of those people most would play only a handful of the 700+ draws a year (2 a day.) I suspect it's the same 90%+ of people who play every draw. In this context, 100,000 may even slightly overstate the universe of players.

Treehouse72 wrote: »

I have a conundrum, or perhaps a game-theoretical head-scratcher about the Daily Million.

Please note, I am not a mathematician and I'm not a dreamer; I don't think I've suddenly cracked the secret sauce to winning the DM, and I'm sure there's a simple maths answer to my problem. It's just something that came to mind that I can't quite square in my head.

A hypothetical scenario.

> Imagine the same 100,000 people play DM every day, and nobody else does. So the entire universe of DM players is 100,000. (I ponder how accurate this number might be in the note at the bottom, but let's go with it for now for the purposes of the hypothetical).

> The odds for any of these people to win the DM or DM+ jackpot are c. 3m:1 for each draw. http://www.lottogenie.com/html/odds.html

> Back to the real world, Lotto says there've been 28 DM or DM+ winners since 2012: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/national-lottery-expands-daily-million-to-two-draws-per-day-34637983.html. So that's about 7 wins on average pa 2012-2016. (We can stipulate that this distribution may be freakish, and not match the long term, but let's go with the figure of 7 pa for now.)

> So here's the conundrum: How are my odds 3m:1 when we know that 7 out of 100,000 players will win a jackpot each year? Why aren't my odds 100,000:1 rather than 3m:1?

To put it another way: My only competition in the race to 1 of the 7 inevitable prizes is, axiomatically, the 99,999 other people who play.

.............

A quick note on how many people play DM/DM+:

I suspect my 100,000 guesstimate for the total universe of DM players may not be too far off. On Lotto's website you can see there are between c.300 and c.600 winners in each DM and DM+ draw, making c.1,000 winners per draw. I believe in a 39-ball draw, your chances of winning any prize is c. 30:1. (http://www.lottogenie.com/html/odds.html) suggesting a total of c. 30,000 players per game.

Further, this makes me think the entire universe of players would be pretty limited. I suspect a lot of people never play DM, and I also suspect there's a hardcore who (almost) always play it. The middle ground - those who play occasionally - is probably pretty small, and of those people most would play only a handful of the 700+ draws a year (2 a day.) I suspect it's the same 90%+ of people who play every draw. In this context, 100,000 may even slightly overstate the universe of players.

Your odds of winning have nothing to do with other players. (your odds of sharing a win do, but not actually winning at all), and your odds don't improve with each additional draw you play. They are exactly the same every time you play, which in the case of Daily Million (39 balls, 5 selections) is 1 in 575,757 per line.

The only time other players matter in lottery draws is when a top prize might be split, and because you need other players playing to help the jackpot to roll faster. In the case of Daily Million, the jackpot doesn't roll, so other players are irrelevant to your playing of the game.

corcaigh1 wrote: »

Scam!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/national-lottery-apologies-after-180k-scratch-card-error-38775934.html

Ok, a few people misunderstand statistics.

The current events surrounding the National Lottery are a serious cock-up.

I warned them that years ago that privatising it wouldn't be a good idea, but they didn't listen, is all I'd say for the time being.

https://www.rnl.ie/about-us/protected-disclosures/

Protected Disclosures Annual Report
Section 22 of the Protected Disclosures Act 2014 requires the publication of a report each year relating to the number of protected disclosures made in the preceding year and any actions taken in response to such disclosures.

No protected disclosures were received by the Office of the Regulator of the National Lottery in the reporting periods up to 31st December 2016.

No protected disclosures were received by the Office of the Regulator of the National Lottery in the reporting period 1st January 2017 to 31st December 2017.

One communication was received by the Office of the Regulator of the National Lottery in the reporting period 1st January to 31st December 2018 that could be considered a protected disclosure and it was treated as such. The communication was received from an external third party. Following assessment, involving internal and external expertise, the Regulator determined that no action was required in respect of this communication.

Having a lotto draw on christmas day shows how ruthless and greedy this company is.